{"id":26217,"date":"2023-02-01T14:34:49","date_gmt":"2023-02-01T11:34:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=26217"},"modified":"2023-02-01T14:34:49","modified_gmt":"2023-02-01T11:34:49","slug":"sondaj-mircea-geoana-ar-castiga-alegerile-prezidentiale-ciolacu-ar-avea-sanse-in-finala-doar-cu-simion-sau-ciuca","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=26217","title":{"rendered":"Sondaj: Mircea Geoan\u0103 ar c\u00e2\u0219tiga alegerile preziden\u021biale. Ciolacu ar avea \u0219anse \u00een final\u0103 doar cu Simion sau Ciuc\u0103"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"entry data-app-meta data-app-meta-article\" data-embed-base-url-canonical=\"https:\/\/www.digi24.ro\/embed\/stiri\/actualitate\/politica\/sondaj-mircea-geoana-ar-castiga-alegerile-prezidentiale-ciolacu-ar-avea-sanse-doar-in-finala-cu-simion-2235397\">\n<p data-index=\"1\"><strong>Mircea Geoan\u0103 ar c\u00e2\u0219tiga alegerile preziden\u021biale din 2024 \u00een orice scenariu, potrivit datelor unui sondaj realizat de Atlas Intel. El ar ajunge \u00een turul 2 al alegerilor indiferent cine sunt ceilal\u021bi contracandida\u021bi \u0219i ar c\u00e2\u0219tiga. \u00cen schimb, dac\u0103 nu particip\u0103 la scrutin, prima \u0219ans\u0103 i-ar reveni Laurei Kovesi, \u0219efa Parchetului European, care l-ar \u00eenvinge pe Marcel Ciolacu. Singura \u0219ans\u0103 a actualului lider PSD de a ajunge la Palatul Cotroceni este s\u0103 se confrunte \u00een turul 2 cu Nicolae Ciuc\u0103 sau cu George Simion. \u00cen cazul alegerilor parlamentare, sondajul situeaz\u0103 pe primul lor PSD, urmat de AUR, PNL, USR \u0219i UDMR.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-index=\"2\">Sondajul Atlas Intel a fost realizat \u00een perioada 27-30 ianuarie, pe un e\u0219antion de 2.000 de oameni, cu o marj\u0103 de eroare de +\/- 2% \u0219i un nivel de \u00eencredere de 95%. Potrivit datelor sondajului, Mircea Geoan\u0103, actualul secretar adjunct NATO, este preferatul responden\u021bilor pentru a candida la alegerile preziden\u021biale din 2024, cu 14,%, urmat de Laura Kovesi (9,6%), George Simion (8,5%), C\u0103t\u0103lin Drul\u0103 \u0219i Emil Boc (8%).<\/p>\n<p data-index=\"3\">\u00cen privin\u021ba inten\u021biei de vot pentru turul 1 al alegerilor, sondajul a luat \u00een calcul mai multe scenarii.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"highlight-2235397-1\">Turul 1, Scenariul 1<\/h2>\n<p data-index=\"4\">Scenariul 1 ia \u00een calcul alegeri cu participarea lui Mircea Geoan\u0103 din partea PSD (sau sus\u021binut de PSD), deci f\u0103r\u0103 a candida \u0219i Marcel Ciolacu. \u00cen acest scenariu, Geoan\u0103 c\u00e2\u0219tig\u0103 primul tur \u00een fa\u021ba Laurei Kovesi at\u00e2t \u00een r\u00e2ndul tuturor responden\u021bilor (inclusiv nehot\u0103r\u00e2\u021bi), c\u00e2t \u0219i \u00een r\u00e2ndul celor care au o op\u021biune clar\u0103 de vot (voturi afirmative). Cei doi ar urma s\u0103 intre \u00een turul 2 al alegerilor.<\/p>\n<p data-index=\"5\">Pe locurile urm\u0103toare \u00een acest scenariu se situeaz\u0103 George Simion, C\u0103t\u0103lin Drul\u0103, Diana \u0218o\u0219oac\u0103, Nicolae Ciuc\u0103.<\/p>\n<p data-index=\"6\">Situa\u021bia voturilor afirmative:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Mircea Geoan\u0103 &#8211; 28,5%<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Laura Kovesi &#8211; 20,7%<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>George Simion &#8211; 13,4%<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>C\u0103t\u0103lin Drul\u0103 &#8211; 10,2%<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Diana \u0218o\u0219oac\u0103 &#8211; 7,8%<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Nicolae Ciuc\u0103 &#8211; 6,2%<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 id=\"highlight-2235397-2\">Turul 1, Scenariul 2<\/h2>\n<p data-index=\"7\">Scenariul 2 pentru primul tur al alegerilor nu \u00eel include pe Mircea Geoan\u0103 printre candida\u021bi, iar candidatul PSD ar fi Marcel Ciolacu. \u00cen aceast\u0103 variant\u0103, Laura Kovesi ar fi prima \u00een op\u021biunile aleg\u0103torilor, inclusiv la vot afirmativ, urmat\u0103 de Marcel Ciolacu, George Simion, Nicolae Ciuc\u0103, C\u0103t\u0103lin Drul\u0103.<\/p>\n<p data-index=\"8\">Laura Kovesi \u0219i Marcel Ciolacu ar urma s\u0103 se confrunte \u00een turul 2 al alegerilor.<\/p>\n<p data-index=\"9\">Situa\u021bia voturilor afirmative:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Laura Kovesi &#8211; 20,7%<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Marcel Ciolacu &#8211; 17,5%<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>George Simion &#8211; 14%<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Nicolae Ciuc\u0103 &#8211; 10,4%<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>C\u0103t\u0103lin Drul\u0103 &#8211; 10%<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Diana \u0218o\u0219oac\u0103 &#8211; 7,7%<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 id=\"highlight-2235397-3\">Turul 1, Scenariul 3<\/h2>\n<p data-index=\"10\">Ultimul scenariu pentru turul 1 luat \u00een calcul de sondaj este cel \u00een care se \u00eenscriu pe liste at\u00e2t Mircea Geoan\u0103, c\u00e2t \u0219i Marcel Ciolacu.<\/p>\n<p data-index=\"11\">\u00cen aceast\u0103 variant\u0103, Laura Kovesi ar c\u00e2\u0219tiga primul tur, urmat\u0103 de Mircea Geoan\u0103, George Simion \u0219i Marcel Ciolacu.<\/p>\n<p data-index=\"12\">Kovesi \u0219i Geoan\u0103 vor merge \u00een turul 2, similar Scenariului 1, \u00eens\u0103 de pe pozi\u021bii inverse &#8211; Kovesi \u00een fa\u021ba lui Geoan\u0103.<\/p>\n<p data-index=\"13\">Situa\u021bia voturilor afirmative:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Laura Kovesi &#8211; 22,4%<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Mircea Geoan\u0103 &#8211; 19,2%<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>George Simion &#8211; 12,9%<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Marcel Ciolacu &#8211; 8,5%<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Diana \u0218o\u0219oac\u0103 &#8211; 7,1%<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Dacian Ciolo\u0219 &#8211; 6,6%<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 id=\"highlight-2235397-4\">Turul 2: Geoan\u0103 c\u00e2\u0219tig\u0103 \u00een orice scenariu<\/h2>\n<p data-index=\"14\">\u00cen privin\u021ba turului 2 al alegerilor preziden\u021biale, datele sondajului \u00eel dau pe Mircea Geoan\u0103 c\u00e2\u0219tig\u0103tor \u00een orice scenariu: el ar \u00eenvinge orice oponent, indiferent dac\u0103 este Laura Kovesi, Nicolae Ciuc\u0103, George Simion sau Emil Boc.<\/p>\n<p data-index=\"15\">Scenariul 2 de la Turul 1, cu o final\u0103 Kovesi &#8211; Ciolacu, \u00een lipsa particip\u0103rii lui Geoan\u0103, s-ar solda cu victoria actualei \u0219efe a Parchetului European \u00een fa\u021ba liderului PSD.<\/p>\n<p data-index=\"16\">Singurele \u0219anse ale lui Marcel Ciolacu s\u0103 ajung\u0103 la Cotroceni sunt o final\u0103 cu Nicolae Ciuc\u0103 sau George Simion. Dac\u0103 ar intra \u00een turul 2 cu Emil Boc, primarul Clujului ar merge la palatul Cotroceni.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"article-thumb\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/c2g9ywe3yzlhmmexywm4mdnmzwi5owu0mjdjnwmyywm1zmy-thumb_.jpg\" alt=\"T2\" data-skip-htmlfix=\"1\" title=\"c2g9ywe3yzlhmmexywm4mdnmzwi5owu0mjdjnwmyywm1zmy-thumb_\"><figcaption> Inten\u021bie vot Turul 2. Surs\u0103: Atlas Intel <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 id=\"highlight-2235397-5\">Alegeri parlamentare<\/h2>\n<p data-index=\"17\">\u00cen privin\u021ba alegerilor parlamentare, surpriza nu o constituie faptul c\u0103 PSD este pe primul loc \u00een inten\u021biile de vot ale responden\u021bilor, ci c\u0103 AUR este pe locul 2, cu un scor dublu fa\u021b\u0103 de alegerile din 2020, c\u00e2nd a ob\u021binut 9% din voturi.<\/p>\n<p data-index=\"18\">Trebuie men\u021bionat \u00eens\u0103 c\u0103 diferen\u021ba fa\u021b\u0103 de PNL, locul 3, este de sub 1%, \u00een marja de eroare.<\/p>\n<p data-index=\"19\">Pe locurile urm\u0103toare s-ar situa USR, UDMR \u0219i, de asemenea, PMP ar avea o \u0219ans\u0103 s\u0103 treac\u0103 de pragul electoral de 5%.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"article-thumb\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/nje4zja3yzg0odyxzgzlnzc0zdyxnzmyndbmymq-thumb_.jpg\" alt=\"Alegeri parlamentare\" data-skip-htmlfix=\"1\" title=\"nje4zja3yzg0odyxzgzlnzc0zdyxnzmyndbmymq-thumb_\"><figcaption> Inten\u021bie vot alegeri parlamentare. Surs\u0103: Atlas Intel <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 id=\"highlight-2235397-6\">Cine este Atlas Intel<\/h2>\n<p data-index=\"20\">Atlas Intel este un institut de sondaje din Brazilia, \u201ecea mai precisa\u0306 companie de sondare a opiniei publice i\u0302n alegerile prezident\u0326iale din 2022 s\u0326i i\u0302n alegerile locale din 2020\u201d, potrivit propriei prezent\u0103ri.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-index=\"21\">De asemenea, la alegerile prezident\u0326iale din 2020 i\u0302n SUA, Atlas Intel a fost \u201ecea mai precisa\u0306 companie de sondare, ata\u0302t la nivel federal, ca\u0302t s\u0326i i\u0302n statele cheie care au definit numa\u0306rul de electori i\u0302n Colegiul Electoral\u201d.<\/p>\n<p data-index=\"22\">Institutul a mai realizat m\u0103sur\u0103tori la alegeri \u00een Argentina, Chile, Columbia \u0219i este singura companie de sondare a opiniei publice pe canal exclusiv digital cu nota \u201eA\u201d i\u0302n clasamentul FiveThirtyEight, potrivit prezent\u0103rii.<\/p>\n<p> Editor : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.digi24.ro\/autor\/bogdan-pacurar\"> Bogdan P\u0103curar <\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p> Source URL: https:\/\/www.digi24.ro\/stiri\/actualitate\/politica\/sondaj-mircea-geoana-ar-castiga-alegerile-prezidentiale-ciolacu-ar-avea-sanse-doar-in-finala-cu-simion-2235397<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mircea Geoan\u0103 ar c\u00e2\u0219tiga alegerile preziden\u021biale din 2024 \u00een orice scenariu, potrivit datelor unui sondaj realizat de Atlas Intel. El ar ajunge \u00een turul 2 al alegerilor indiferent cine sunt ceilal\u021bi contracandida\u021bi \u0219i ar c\u00e2\u0219tiga. \u00cen schimb, dac\u0103 nu particip\u0103 la scrutin, prima \u0219ans\u0103 i-ar reveni Laurei Kovesi, \u0219efa Parchetului European, care l-ar \u00eenvinge pe [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":26218,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[11],"class_list":["post-26217","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-digi24"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26217","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=26217"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26217\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/26218"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=26217"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=26217"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=26217"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}