{"id":219237,"date":"2013-10-27T13:47:49","date_gmt":"2013-10-27T10:47:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=219237"},"modified":"2013-10-27T13:47:49","modified_gmt":"2013-10-27T10:47:49","slug":"2014-un-an-electoral-atipic-cu-ce-consecinte","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=219237","title":{"rendered":"2014, un an electoral atipic. Cu ce consecin\u021be?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Alegerile europarlamentarele de la sf\u00e2r\u0219itul lunii mai vor bloca practic Guvernul \u015fi Parlamentul cel pu\u0163in dou\u0103 luni. Toat\u0103 lumea va fi preocupat\u0103 de alegeri. \u00cen plus, PSD si PNL candideaz\u0103 separat. Va fi momentul \u00een care vor fi adversare. Cine va c\u00e2\u015ftiga se va impune apoi \u00een USL. Sau, dac\u0103 USL se rupe, va fi o var\u0103 cu multe mi\u015fc\u0103ri pe scena politic\u0103. Mi\u015fc\u0103ri ce deja se simt.<\/p>\n

PSD \u015fi-a construit o majoritate de rezerv\u0103 at\u00e2t la Camera Deputa\u0163ilor, c\u00e2t \u015fi la Senat, unde \u00eempreun\u0103 cu partidele mici are suficiente voturi c\u00e2t s\u0103 nu aib\u0103 nevoie de PNL. \u00cen plus, perspectiva unei candidaturi a lui Victor Ponta ar spori instabilitatea politic\u0103. Ar fi nevoie ca PNL s\u0103 ias\u0103 de la guvernare, s\u0103 se formeze un nou Guvern \u015fi o nou\u0103 majoritate \u00een Parlament. A\u015fadar, dou\u0103 campanii electorale \u00eenseamn\u0103 aproape o jum\u0103tate de an de instabilitate politic\u0103 \u015fi de blocaj al activit\u0103\u0163ii guvernamentale. Iar blocajul \u015fi instabilitate politic\u0103 vin pe fondul unei economii fragile. <\/p>\n

Avem deja semnale c\u0103 \u00eencas\u0103rile la buget sunt sub a\u015ftept\u0103ri. De\u015fi nu are bani, sub presiunea alegerilor, Guvernul va fi tentat s\u0103 dea binecunoscutele pomeni: major\u0103ri de pensii, salarii, ajutoare sociale, fonduri mai multe pentru prim\u0103rii. Este greu de crezut c\u0103 Executivul va fi preocupat anul viitor de m\u0103suri s\u0103n\u0103toase de redresare a economiei.<\/p>\n

Scenarii posibile<\/h5>\n

Anul 2014 se anun\u021b\u0103 a fi un an politic atipic \u0219i instabil. Alia\u021bii se confrunt\u0103 la europarlamentare, dar au un candidat comun la alegerile preziden\u021biale. Mi\u0219carea, inedit\u0103, nu va r\u0103m\u00e2ne f\u0103r\u0103 consecin\u021be:<\/p>\n

– cel pu\u0163in dou\u0103 luni de blocare a activit\u0103\u0163ii administra\u0163iei centrale \u015fi locale din cauza celor dou\u0103 campanii electorale (primarii, parlamentarii, mini\u015ftrii vor fi \u00een campanie);<\/p>\n

– tensiuni \u015fi conflicte \u00een USL, dac\u0103 PNL va lua un scor mult mai mic dec\u00e2t PSD;<\/p>\n

– dac\u0103 nu se rupe USL dup\u0103 europarlamentare, Crin Antonescu va avea de \u00eenfruntat ostilitatea pesedi\u015ftilor \u00een teritoriu, iar USL ar putea pierde alegerile preziden\u021biale<\/p>\n

– dac\u0103 PSD are candidat propriu, USL se rupe, ceea ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 o perioad\u0103 de maxim\u0103 instabilitate, \u00een care \u0163ara nu e, de fapt, guvernat\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 la formarea unui nou guvern. Se adaug\u0103 la aceasta discu\u0163iile de la Cotroceni \u2013 probabil deloc u\u0219oare – pentru desemnarea<\/p>\n

premierului.<\/p>\n

– \u00een acest timp, rom\u00e2nii se lupt\u0103 cu taxe tot mai multe, cu lipsa locurilor de munc\u0103, iar guvernul ar putea fi nevoit s\u0103 ia m\u0103suri fiscale dure.<\/p>\n

Datele unui an politic atipic<\/h5>\n

Alegeri europarlamentare<\/strong><\/p>\n

– vor avea loc la finalul lunii mai 2014<\/p>\n

– 2 luni de campanie electoral\u0103 => activitatea Guvernului aproape blocat\u0103<\/p>\n

Majorit\u0103\u0163i \u00een Parlament<\/strong><\/p>\n

Camera Deputa\u0163ilor<\/p>\n

PSD (167) + UDMR (18) + PC (18) + Minorit\u0103\u0163i (18) = 221<\/p>\n

Majoritate – 204<\/p>\n

Senat<\/p>\n

PSD (70) + PC (9) + UDMR (8) = 87<\/p>\n

Majoritate – 87<\/p>\n

USL, \u00eentre ciocan \u015fi nicoval\u0103<\/strong><\/p>\n

– candida\u0163i separa\u0163i la europarlamentare => adversari<\/p>\n

– candidat comun la preziden\u0163iale => parteneri<\/p>\n

Victor Ponta, drumul de la Palatul Victoria la Cotroceni<\/strong><\/p>\n

Victor Ponta candideaz\u0103 => USL se rupe<\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 => PNL iese de la guvernare<\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 => alt Guvern, alt\u0103 majoritate \u00een Parlament<\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 => instabilitate politic\u0103<\/p>\n

Lupta politic\u0103 blocheaz\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia<\/strong><\/p>\n

– o jum\u0103tate de an de campanie<\/p>\n

– activitatea guvernamental\u0103 \u015fi cea parlamentar\u0103 reduse la minimum<\/p>\n

– pomeni electorale<\/p>\n

=> lipsa unor m\u0103suri corecte de redresare economic\u0103.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Source URL: https:\/\/www.digi24.ro\/stiri\/actualitate\/politica\/2014-un-an-electoral-atipic-cu-ce-consecinte-141416<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alegerile europarlamentarele de la sf\u00e2r\u0219itul lunii mai vor bloca practic Guvernul \u015fi Parlamentul cel pu\u0163in dou\u0103 luni. Toat\u0103 lumea va fi preocupat\u0103 de alegeri. \u00cen plus, PSD si PNL candideaz\u0103 separat. Va fi momentul \u00een care vor fi adversare. Cine va c\u00e2\u015ftiga se va impune apoi \u00een USL. Sau, dac\u0103 USL se rupe, va fi […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":219238,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[11],"class_list":["post-219237","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-digi24"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/219237","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=219237"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/219237\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/219238"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=219237"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=219237"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=219237"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}