{"id":2187407,"date":"2026-10-09T10:54:21","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T07:54:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2187407"},"modified":"2026-10-09T10:54:21","modified_gmt":"2026-10-09T07:54:21","slug":"strong-el-nino-through-march-the-el-nino-ski-season-outlook-says-its-likely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2187407","title":{"rendered":"Strong El Ni\u00f1o Through March? The El Ni\u00f1o Ski Season Outlook Says It\u2019s Likely"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<figure id=\"attachment_430784\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-430784\" style=\"width: 1012px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"wp-image-430784 size-full lazyload\" src=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAoAAAAFBAQMAAADdX4zsAAAABlBMVEUAAAD\/\/\/+l2Z\/dAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAAAlwSFlzAAAOxAAADsQBlSsOGwAAADBJREFUeNrtwQENAAAAwqD3T20PBxQAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAADAiQFlkQABazrCfgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\" alt=\"El Ni\u00f1o ski season signal: map of September 2026 Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies above 4\u00b0C near the equator\" width=\"640\" height=\"321\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image.png?resize=640%2C321&amp;ssl=1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image.png?w=1012&amp;ssl=1 1012w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image.png?resize=300%2C150&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image.png?resize=768%2C385&amp;ssl=1 768w\" data-max-width=\"640\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-eio-rwidth=\"640\" data-eio-rheight=\"321\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"wp-image-430784 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image.png?resize=640%2C321&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"El Ni\u00f1o ski season signal: map of September 2026 Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies above 4\u00b0C near the equator\" width=\"640\" height=\"321\" data-eio=\"l\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-430784\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 1. Average relative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (\u00b0C) for September 2026. Anomalies are computed with respect to the 1991-2020 base period monthly means. Data: OISSTv2.1.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"code-block code-block-1\" style=\"margin: 8px auto;text-align: center;display: block;clear: both\">\n<!-- GAM 71161633\/SNWBR_snowbrains\/article_hrec_1 --><\/p>\n<div data-fuse=\"article_hrec_1\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>The El Ni\u00f1o ski season outlook for 2026-27 strengthened Thursday, as the <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/enso_advisory\/ensodisc.pdf\">Climate Prediction Center (CPC)<\/a><\/em> reported that El Ni\u00f1o is still building in the Pacific.<\/strong> NOAA forecasters now put the chance of a strong-to-very strong event above 83% through January-March 2027, and they say a historic event remains well within reach.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Related: <em><a href=\"https:\/\/snowbrains.com\/noaa-enso-blog-how-does-el-nino-influence-snowfall-over-the-united-states\/?_rt=MnwxfGVsIG5pw7FvfDE3OTE1NDIzNTk&amp;_rt_nonce=ef7d06b6232a245e1f7344527523fc9a66019d82b0309fa1cc2accf827d26fef\" rel=\"bookmark\">How Does El Ni\u00f1o Influence Snowfall Over the United States?<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>The October update follows <a href=\"https:\/\/snowbrains.com\/el-nino-2026-27-ski-forecast\/\">our September report on the 2026-27 El Ni\u00f1o ski season<\/a>, and it shows the event strengthened further over the past month.<\/strong> The details below come from the CPC\u2019s latest ENSO Diagnostics Discussion.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_430783\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-430783\" style=\"width: 825px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"wp-image-430783 size-full lazyload\" src=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAoAAAAK2AQMAAADkIL\/QAAAABlBMVEUAAAD\/\/\/+l2Z\/dAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAAAlwSFlzAAAOxAAADsQBlSsOGwAAAE1JREFUeNrtwQENAAAAwqD3T20PBxQAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAD\/BtuWAAGqrbxaAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\" alt=\"Time series of Ni\u00f1o-3.4, Ni\u00f1o-3 and Ni\u00f1o-1+2 temperature anomalies climbing from April to September 2026\" width=\"640\" height=\"694\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-2.png?resize=640%2C694&amp;ssl=1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-2.png?w=825&amp;ssl=1 825w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-2.png?resize=277%2C300&amp;ssl=1 277w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-2.png?resize=768%2C833&amp;ssl=1 768w\" data-max-width=\"640\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-eio-rwidth=\"640\" data-eio-rheight=\"694\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"wp-image-430783 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-2.png?resize=640%2C694&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"Time series of Ni\u00f1o-3.4, Ni\u00f1o-3 and Ni\u00f1o-1+2 temperature anomalies climbing from April to September 2026\" width=\"640\" height=\"694\" data-eio=\"l\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-430783\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 2. Time series of area-averaged relative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (\u00b0C) in the Ni\u00f1o regions [Ni\u00f1o-4 (5\u00baN-5\u00baS, 160\u00baE-150\u00baW), Ni\u00f1o-3.4 (5\u00b0N-5\u00b0S, 170\u00b0W-120\u00b0W), Ni\u00f1o-3 (5\u00b0N-5\u00b0S, 150\u00b0W-90\u00b0W), Ni\u00f1o-1+2 (0\u00b0-10\u00b0S, 90\u00b0W-80\u00b0W) minus tropical mean (20\u00b0N-20\u00b0S). The relative indices are re-scaled to match the variance of traditional indices. Anomalies are departures from the 1991-2020 base period monthly means. Data: OISSTv2.1.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3><strong>Pacific Warming Behind the El Ni\u00f1o Ski Season Outlook<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><strong>NOAA kept its El Ni\u00f1o Advisory in place after September sea surface temperatures in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific ran more than 4.0\u00b0C above average.<\/strong> Most of the Ni\u00f1o indices climbed over the past month, with Ni\u00f1o-3.4 reaching +2.1\u00b0C, Ni\u00f1o-3 reaching +3.0\u00b0C, and Ni\u00f1o-1+2 reaching +3.9\u00b0C.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Related: <em><a href=\"https:\/\/snowbrains.com\/el-nino-2026-27-ski-forecast\/?_rt=MXwxfGVsIG5pw7FvfDE3OTE1NDIzNTk&amp;_rt_nonce=8a0791d5087462edba8721adcba53da0ea4660b97983b8f5901c0a7c7c8896ad\" rel=\"bookmark\">El Ni\u00f1o 2026-27 Ski Forecast September Update: Colorado Gets an Early-Season Upgrade and California Holds Its Ground<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>The warmth extends well below the surface, where temperatures in the eastern Pacific stayed more 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              } else if (window.dataLayer) {<br \/>\n                    \/\/ Fallback for GTM dataLayer if gtag is not available<br \/>\n                    window.dataLayer.push({<br \/>\n                        &#8216;event&#8217;: &#8216;trending_widget_click&#8217;,<br \/>\n                        &#8216;event_category&#8217;: &#8216;engagement&#8217;,<br \/>\n                        &#8216;event_label&#8217;: title,<br \/>\n                        &#8216;trending_position&#8217;: position,<br \/>\n                        &#8216;trending_item&#8217;: title<br \/>\n                    });<br \/>\n                }<\/p>\n<p>                \/\/ Navigate after a brief delay to ensure event is sent<br \/>\n                setTimeout(function() {<br \/>\n                    window.location.href = url;<br \/>\n                }, 100);<br \/>\n            });<br \/>\n        });<br \/>\n    });<\/p><\/div>\n<p><strong>The atmosphere is moving in step with the ocean.<\/strong> Low-level westerly wind anomalies stretched from the western to the east-central equatorial Pacific, enhancing convection and rainfall that persisted from the central to the eastern Pacific, while Indonesia stayed drier than average, and Southern Oscillation indices were significantly negative.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Related: <em><a href=\"https:\/\/snowbrains.com\/el-nino-ski-season-2026-27\/?_rt=M3wxfGVsIG5pw7FvfDE3OTE1NDIzNTk&amp;_rt_nonce=f0275ad19f9f0d7e413202b0c7d1134a875495baaae50112b1705f57ec455138\" rel=\"bookmark\">The 2026-27 El Ni\u00f1o Ski Season Could Be the Biggest in Decades<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure id=\"attachment_430781\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-430781\" style=\"width: 900px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-430781 lazyload\" src=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAoAAAAFAAQMAAAAWA19JAAAABlBMVEUAAAD\/\/\/+l2Z\/dAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAAAlwSFlzAAAOxAAADsQBlSsOGwAAADBJREFUeNrtwTEBAAAAwqD1T20MH6AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAPgZlQAABOGKJ6gAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\" alt width=\"640\" height=\"320\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-3.png?resize=640%2C320&amp;ssl=1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-3.png?w=900&amp;ssl=1 900w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-3.png?resize=300%2C150&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-3.png?resize=768%2C384&amp;ssl=1 768w\" data-max-width=\"640\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-eio-rwidth=\"640\" data-eio-rheight=\"320\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-430781\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-3.png?resize=640%2C320&amp;ssl=1\" alt width=\"640\" height=\"320\" data-eio=\"l\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-430781\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 3. Area-averaged upper-ocean (0- 300 m) temperature anomaly (\u00b0C) in the equatorial Pacific (5\u00b0N-5\u00b0S, 180\u00ba-100\u00baW). The temperature anomaly is computed as the departure from the 1991-2020 base-period pentad mean. Data: GODAS.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"code-block code-block-2\" style=\"margin: 8px auto;text-align: center;display: block;clear: both\">\n<!-- GAM 71161633\/SNWBR_snowbrains\/article_hrec_2 --><\/p>\n<div data-fuse=\"article_hrec_2\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h3><strong>Odds of a Record Event Since 1950<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><strong>The CPC said chances remain high for an event stronger than any El Ni\u00f1o since 1950, defined as a three-month Relative Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index (RONI) value of +2.5 \u00b0C or more.<\/strong> The agency put those odds at 54% for September-November, 83% for October-December and 70% for November-January.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Related: <em><a href=\"https:\/\/snowbrains.com\/why-la-nina-might-explain-dismal-western-snowpacks-and-what-to-expect-for-possible-el-nino-next-winter\/?_rt=NHwxfGVsIG5pw7FvfDE3OTE1NDIzNTk&amp;_rt_nonce=6f7619858ba76ef93467f606e3da86e7051abf549aa01885382b30f2ff186c6b\" rel=\"bookmark\">Why La Ni\u00f1a Might Explain Dismal Western Snowpacks and What to Expect for Possible El Ni\u00f1o Next Winter<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>The official outlook shows El Ni\u00f1o strengthening through the end of the year, then weakening through spring 2027. <\/strong>The forecast still favors El Ni\u00f1o through March-May, though neutral conditions become more likely by April-June.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_430780\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-430780\" style=\"width: 800px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-430780 lazyload\" src=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAoAAAAFAAQMAAAAWA19JAAAABlBMVEUAAAD\/\/\/+l2Z\/dAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAAAlwSFlzAAAOxAAADsQBlSsOGwAAADBJREFUeNrtwTEBAAAAwqD1T20MH6AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAPgZlQAABOGKJ6gAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\" alt width=\"640\" height=\"320\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-4.png?resize=640%2C320&amp;ssl=1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-4.png?w=800&amp;ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-4.png?resize=300%2C150&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-4.png?resize=768%2C384&amp;ssl=1 768w\" data-max-width=\"640\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-eio-rwidth=\"640\" data-eio-rheight=\"320\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-430780\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-4.png?resize=640%2C320&amp;ssl=1\" alt width=\"640\" height=\"320\" data-eio=\"l\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-430780\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 4. Depth-longitude section of equatorial Pacific upper-ocean (0-300m) temperature anomalies (\u00b0C) centered on the pentad of 30 September 2026. Anomalies are departures from the 1991-2020 base-period pentad mean. Data: GODAS.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3><strong>What the Forecast Means for the El Ni\u00f1o Ski Season<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><strong>The event is forecast to peak in late fall and early winter, which lines up with the opening weeks of the ski season. <\/strong>The CPC discussion does not forecast snowfall or temperatures for any ski state or mountain range, however, and forecasters note that a stronger event raises the chances of El Ni\u00f1o impacts without guaranteeing them.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Related: <em><a href=\"https:\/\/snowbrains.com\/what-causes-el-nino\/?_rt=NnwxfGVsIG5pw7FvfDE3OTE1NDIzNTk&amp;_rt_nonce=7c8cd43821e56afff5b0211d529f407b200e80a469020f95f44006540f35887c\" rel=\"bookmark\">What Actually Causes El Ni\u00f1o \u2014 And Why It Changes Winter Everywhere<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Skiers who want <a href=\"https:\/\/snowbrains.com\/el-nino-2026-27-ski-forecast\/\">regional detail<\/a> should check the CPC\u2019s seasonal outlooks, which carry the probabilities for temperature and precipitation anomalies.<\/strong> SnowBrains will cover the <a href=\"https:\/\/snowbrains.com\/category\/weather\/\">regional outlooks<\/a> as they update.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_430778\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-430778\" style=\"width: 952px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"wp-image-430778 size-full lazyload\" src=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAoAAAAEgAQMAAAAe91ATAAAABlBMVEUAAAD\/\/\/+l2Z\/dAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAAAlwSFlzAAAOxAAADsQBlSsOGwAAAC1JREFUeNrtwTEBAAAAwqD1T20LL6AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA4GdbIAABslH3DgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\" alt=\"El Ni\u00f1o ski season outlook\" width=\"640\" height=\"288\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-5.png?resize=640%2C288&amp;ssl=1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-5.png?w=952&amp;ssl=1 952w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-5.png?resize=300%2C135&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-5.png?resize=768%2C345&amp;ssl=1 768w\" data-max-width=\"640\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-eio-rwidth=\"640\" data-eio-rheight=\"288\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"wp-image-430778 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-5.png?resize=640%2C288&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"El Ni\u00f1o ski season outlook\" width=\"640\" height=\"288\" data-eio=\"l\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-430778\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 5. Average outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies (W\/m2) for 7 September\u20132 October 2026. OLR anomalies are computed as departures from the 1991-2020 base period pentad means. Data: CBOv1.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"code-block code-block-3\" style=\"margin: 8px auto;text-align: center;display: block;clear: both\">\n<!-- GAM 71161633\/SNWBR_snowbrains\/article_hrec_4 --><\/p>\n<div data-fuse=\"article_hrec_4\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h3><strong>Next NOAA Update: November 12<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><strong>The CPC will release its next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion on November 12, 2026.<\/strong> SnowBrains will report any forecast changes.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_430776\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-430776\" style=\"width: 1430px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"wp-image-430776 size-full lazyload\" src=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAoAAAAHAAQMAAAAIs0uRAAAABlBMVEUAAAD\/\/\/+l2Z\/dAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAAAlwSFlzAAAOxAAADsQBlSsOGwAAADpJREFUeNrtwQENAAAAwqD3T20ON6AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAD4MjcAAAZfOSQcAAAAASUVORK5CYII=\" alt=\"Line chart of NOAA&apos;s October 2026 Relative Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index forecast rising through late 2026 and fading by mid-2027\" width=\"640\" height=\"448\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-6.png?resize=640%2C448&amp;ssl=1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-6.png?w=1430&amp;ssl=1 1430w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-6.png?resize=300%2C210&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-6.png?resize=1200%2C839&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-6.png?resize=768%2C537&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-6.png?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w\" data-max-width=\"640\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-eio-rwidth=\"640\" data-eio-rheight=\"448\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"wp-image-430776 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-6.png?resize=640%2C448&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"Line chart of NOAA&apos;s October 2026 Relative Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index forecast rising through late 2026 and fading by mid-2027\" width=\"640\" height=\"448\" data-eio=\"l\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-430776\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Ni\u00f1o-3.4 relative sea surface temperature index (5\u00b0N-5\u00b0S, 170\u00b0W -120\u00b0W) minus tropical mean (20\u00b0N-20\u00b0S). The relative index is rescaled to match the traditional index\u2019s variance. Figure updated 8 October 2026.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure id=\"attachment_430775\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-430775\" style=\"width: 1429px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-430775 lazyload\" src=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAoAAAAF4AQMAAAD+KtqJAAAABlBMVEUAAAD\/\/\/+l2Z\/dAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAAAlwSFlzAAAOxAAADsQBlSsOGwAAADRJREFUeNrtwTEBAAAAwqD1T+1pCaAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAOAGdvgAAbslrrYAAAAASUVORK5CYII=\" alt width=\"640\" height=\"376\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-7.png?resize=640%2C376&amp;ssl=1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-7.png?w=1429&amp;ssl=1 1429w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-7.png?resize=300%2C176&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-7.png?resize=1200%2C705&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-7.png?resize=768%2C451&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-7.png?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w\" data-max-width=\"640\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-eio-rwidth=\"640\" data-eio-rheight=\"376\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-430775\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-7.png?resize=640%2C376&amp;ssl=1\" alt width=\"640\" height=\"376\" data-eio=\"l\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-430775\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 7. Official ENSO probabilities for the Ni\u00f1o-3.4 relative sea surface temperature index (5\u00b0N-5\u00b0S, 170\u00b0W -120\u00b0W) minus tropical mean (20\u00b0N-20\u00b0S). The relative index is rescaled to match the traditional index\u2019s variance. Figure updated 8 October 2026.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure id=\"attachment_430774\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-430774\" style=\"width: 1431px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"wp-image-430774 size-full lazyload\" src=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAoAAAAF1AQMAAABCtMlXAAAABlBMVEUAAAD\/\/\/+l2Z\/dAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAAAlwSFlzAAAOxAAADsQBlSsOGwAAADRJREFUeNrtwYEAAAAAw6D5U5\/gBlUBAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHANdgUAAf6\/ZkoAAAAASUVORK5CYII=\" alt=\"Chances of El Ni\u00f1o lasting the ski season\" width=\"640\" height=\"373\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-8.png?resize=640%2C373&amp;ssl=1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-8.png?w=1431&amp;ssl=1 1431w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-8.png?resize=300%2C175&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-8.png?resize=1200%2C699&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-8.png?resize=768%2C447&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-8.png?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w\" data-max-width=\"640\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-eio-rwidth=\"640\" data-eio-rheight=\"373\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"wp-image-430774 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-8.png?resize=640%2C373&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"Chances of El Ni\u00f1o lasting the ski season\" width=\"640\" height=\"373\" data-eio=\"l\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-430774\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 8. ENSO strength probabilities for the Ni\u00f1o-3.4 relative sea surface temperature index (5\u00b0N-5\u00b0S, 170\u00b0W-120\u00b0W) minus tropical mean (20\u00b0N-20\u00b0S). The relative index is rescaled to match the traditional index\u2019s variance. Figure updated 8 October 2026.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><!-- CONTENT END 1 -->\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Figure 1. Average relative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (\u00b0C) for September 2026. Anomalies are computed with respect to the 1991-2020 base period monthly means. Data: OISSTv2.1. The El Ni\u00f1o ski season outlook for 2026-27 strengthened Thursday, as the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reported that El Ni\u00f1o is still building in the Pacific. NOAA forecasters [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[226,267],"class_list":["post-2187407","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-crawlmanager","tag-snowbrains-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2187407","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2187407"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2187407\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2187407"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2187407"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2187407"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}