{"id":2186928,"date":"2026-10-08T04:57:10","date_gmt":"2026-10-08T01:57:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2186928"},"modified":"2026-10-08T04:57:10","modified_gmt":"2026-10-08T01:57:10","slug":"real-wages-set-to-fall-in-major-european-economies-except-germany","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2186928","title":{"rendered":"Real wages set to fall in major European economies, except Germany"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/94\/18\/10\/1200x675_cmsv2_24840e67-065b-57fb-a1cd-bbe1878c4825-9941810.jpg&#8221;]<\/p>\n<article id=\"abe-2932007-pos1-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1\" data-nid=\"2932007\" data-cid=\"9944287\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2932007-label-pos1-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/94\/42\/87\/189x106_cmsv2_5f55900b-ac9b-596a-b122-56ff96173190-9944287.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"QatarEnergy LNG facilities pictured at dusk. File photo.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Business<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    QatarEnergy eyes LNG production in early 2027 amid $3bn loan reports\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2932086-pos2-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1\" data-nid=\"2932086\" data-cid=\"9944784\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2932086-label-pos2-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/94\/47\/84\/189x106_cmsv2_efdb0873-77fe-5914-8583-de2811a7eb13-9944784.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Economy<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Are eurozone bond markets warning of a recession as growth slows?\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2931917-pos3-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1\" data-nid=\"2931917\" data-cid=\"9944229\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2931917-label-pos3-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/94\/37\/82\/189x106_cmsv2_8bd40b48-876d-5669-9add-63df3d149553-9943782.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Photo of the technology used.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Health news<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Graphene opens new way to detect brain damage after stroke\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2931472-pos4-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1\" data-nid=\"2931472\" data-cid=\"9941653\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2931472-label-pos4-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/94\/16\/53\/189x106_cmsv2_f9280ca2-d93d-5c5e-bc04-1f8ba827f2c0-9941653.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"A snow plow clears the road after snow falls in the Taunus region near Frankfurt, Germany, Monday, March 15, 2021.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Climate<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    El Ni\u00f1o could weaken the polar vortex. What does that mean for Europe?\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2932007-pos1-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2\" data-nid=\"2932007\" data-cid=\"9944287\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2932007-label-pos1-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/94\/42\/87\/189x106_cmsv2_5f55900b-ac9b-596a-b122-56ff96173190-9944287.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"QatarEnergy LNG facilities pictured at dusk. File photo.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Business<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    QatarEnergy eyes LNG production in early 2027 amid $3bn loan reports\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2932086-pos2-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2\" data-nid=\"2932086\" data-cid=\"9944784\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2932086-label-pos2-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/94\/47\/84\/189x106_cmsv2_efdb0873-77fe-5914-8583-de2811a7eb13-9944784.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Economy<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Are eurozone bond markets warning of a recession as growth slows?\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2931917-pos3-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2\" data-nid=\"2931917\" data-cid=\"9944229\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2931917-label-pos3-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/94\/37\/82\/189x106_cmsv2_8bd40b48-876d-5669-9add-63df3d149553-9943782.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Photo of the technology used.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Health news<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Graphene opens new way to detect brain damage after stroke\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2931472-pos4-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2\" data-nid=\"2931472\" data-cid=\"9941653\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2931472-label-pos4-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/94\/16\/53\/189x106_cmsv2_f9280ca2-d93d-5c5e-bc04-1f8ba827f2c0-9941653.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"A snow plow clears the road after snow falls in the Taunus region near Frankfurt, Germany, Monday, March 15, 2021.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Climate<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    El Ni\u00f1o could weaken the polar vortex. What does that mean for Europe?\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"helper-site-row o-article-newsy\">\n<div class=\"helper-site-container o-article-newsy__container\">\n<div class=\"o-article-newsy__main\">\n<header class=\"h-grid o-article-newsy__main__header\">\n<nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumbs\" class=\"c-article-breadcrumbs\">\n<div id=\"adb-article-breadcrumb\" class=\"c-article-breadcrumbs__list\">\n<p>                          Business<\/p>\n<p>                          Economy<\/p><\/div>\n<\/nav>\n<h1 class=\"c-article-redesign-title\">\n                            Real wages set to fall in major European economies, except Germany<\/h1>\n<div class=\"c-article-image-video u-position-relative \">\n<div class=\"js-superdiv u-aspect-ratio-16x9 u-position-relative \" data-controller=\"video-player\" data-sponsored=\"Partner content\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"js-poster-img c-article-media__img\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/94\/18\/10\/1536x864_cmsv2_24840e67-065b-57fb-a1cd-bbe1878c4825-9941810.jpg\" width=\"1536\" height=\"864\" loading=\"eager\" alt=\"File - Pensioner Giorgos Petropoulos shows ten euros notes who receive from National Bank of Greece in Athens, Wednesday, 1 2015.\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-caption u-position-absolute\"><i id=\"article-caption-content\" class=\"c-article-caption__content\"><span class=\"c-article-caption__text\"><br \/>\n              File &#8211; Pensioner Giorgos Petropoulos shows ten euros notes who receive from National Bank of Greece in Athens, Wednesday, 1 2015.<br \/>\n                    <span class=\"u-color-white\">&#8211;\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"c-article-caption__copyright\">Copyright\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"c-article-caption__credit\">AP Photo\/Spyros Tsakiris<\/span><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-image-copyright c-article-image-copyright--novideo\">\n      Copyright\u00a0AP Photo\/Spyros Tsakiris\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"h-grid o-article-newsy__main__body u-article-content\">\n<div class=\"o-article-newsy__contributors-publication-date\">\n<div class=\"c-article-contributors\">\n  By&amp;nbspServet Yanatma\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-publication-date\" data-timestamp=\"1791435430\">\n         Published on<br \/>\n            <time datetime=\"2026-10-08 06:57:10 +02:00\">08\/10\/2026 &#8211; 6:57 GMT+2<\/time><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-share-comment u-align-items-center u-display-flex\"><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__links u-align-items-center u-display-flex u-justify-content-center js-c-article-share-comment-share\"><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__label\">Share<\/span><\/span><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__label\">Comments<\/span><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__label c-article-share-comment__label--always\">Add Euronews on Google<\/span><\/div>\n<div 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height=\"24\" alt=\"threads\" loading=\"lazy\"><span>Threads<\/span><\/span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-threads.svg\" width=\"48\" height=\"48\" alt=\"threads\" class=\"u-show-for-desktop\" loading=\"lazy\"><span class=\"u-display-flex u-gap-1 u-show-for-mobile-only\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-whatsapp.svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" alt=\"whatsapp\" loading=\"lazy\"><span>Whatsapp<\/span><\/span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-whatsapp.svg\" width=\"48\" height=\"48\" alt=\"whatsapp\" class=\"u-show-for-desktop\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"c-article-summary\">\n        Italy, Spain, France and the UK are projected to see declines in real wages between the first quarters of 2026 and 2027, while Germany is expected to record growth. Euronews Business looks at what is driving the divide.<br \/>\n    <\/h2>\n<div class=\"c-article-content c-article-content--business js-article-content\">\n<p>Real wages \u2014 pay adjusted for inflation \u2014 are projected to fall in Italy, Spain, France and the UK between the first quarters of 2026 and 2027, while rising in Germany, according to the OECD\u2019s Employment Outlook 2026. In Italy and Spain, they are expected to remain below their early 2026 levels until at least the end of 2027.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"c-ad u-show-for-mobile-only\">\n<div class=\"c-ad__placeholder\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"c-ad__placeholder__logo\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/logos\/logo-euronews-stacked-outlined-72x72-grey-9.svg\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" alt loading=\"lazy\"><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-ad u-show-for-desktop\">\n<div class=\"c-ad__placeholder\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"c-ad__placeholder__logo\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/logos\/logo-euronews-stacked-outlined-72x72-grey-9.svg\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" alt loading=\"lazy\"><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u201cIn the future, geopolitical uncertainties and a time-limited increase in energy costs may significantly weaken labour markets while exerting further upward pressure on inflation, which likely will depress wages,\u201d the report said.<\/p>\n<p>The report notes that projections are \u201cbased on the assumption that the disruptions from the conflict in the Middle East are sizeable but limited to a relatively short period of time\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Alexandre Georgieff, an OECD economist and one of the report\u2019s authors, said differences in projected real wage growth can be explained by different outlooks for inflation, unemployment and labour market slack.<\/p>\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all figures below compare real wages with their level in the first quarter of 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Across the eurozone as a whole, real wages are expected to fall by 0.4% in mid-2026 and return to their early 2026 level by the first quarter of 2027. By the end of 2027, they are projected to be 0.7% higher.<\/p>\n<div class=\"c-widget-related\" data-stories-id data-event=\"widget_related\">\n<div class=\"c-widget-related__title\"><b class=\"c-widget-related__title__text\" lang=\"en\">Related<\/b><\/div>\n<ul class=\"c-widget-related__list\" id=\"abe-article-related-1\">\n<li class=\"c-widget-related__item\">Where do workers take home the smallest share of their salaries in Europe?<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-widget-related__item\">Where are salaries and job opportunities highest in Portugal?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<h2><strong>Italy sees the largest fall<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Italy is expected to record the largest decline in real wages among the five countries, falling 1.9% below its early 2026 level in the third quarter of that year.<\/p>\n<p>A slow recovery is expected to follow. The decline narrows to 1.4% in the first quarter of 2027. By the end of 2027, real wages in Italy are still projected to be 0.6% below their early 2026 level. Italy&#8217;s annual inflation rate was estimated to reach 4.1% in September.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn Italy, high energy costs are expected to wipe out recent real wage gains, reflecting the country&#8217;s heavy dependence on imported oil and gas,\u201d Georgieff told Euronews Business.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIts recovery in 2027 is expected to be limited because few collective wage agreements are due for renewal that year and slack remains in the labour market.\u201d <\/p>\n<h2><strong>Spain shows no recovery<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Spain&#8217;s decline is smaller, but it lasts. Real wages slip 0.4% in the third quarter of 2026 and 0.7% in the fourth.<\/p>\n<p>Spain&#8217;s decline is smaller but more persistent. Real wages are projected to fall 0.4% in the third quarter of 2026 and 0.7% in the fourth.<\/p>\n<p>They then remain 0.7% below their first-quarter 2026 level through all four quarters of 2027. <\/p>\n<p>By the end of 2027, Spain is projected to have the largest decline among the five major economies, at 0.7%.<\/p>\n<p>Georgieff said that Spain is expected to see strong job creation, but continue to face high inflation, largely driven by energy prices. Prices in Spain were estimated to be 5% higher in September compared with the year before. <\/p>\n<p>Italy and Spain are the only two countries among the five where real wages are projected to remain below their early 2026 levels at the end of 2027.<\/p>\n<div class=\"c-widget-related\" data-stories-id data-event=\"widget_related\">\n<div class=\"c-widget-related__title\"><b class=\"c-widget-related__title__text\" lang=\"en\">Related<\/b><\/div>\n<ul class=\"c-widget-related__list\" id=\"abe-article-related-2\">\n<li class=\"c-widget-related__item\">Record bets against the euro: how low could it fall amid France&#8217;s fiscal crisis and Europe&#8217;s energy shock?<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-widget-related__item\">When growth is not enough: housing and inflation, S\u00e1nchez&#8217;s key election challenges<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<h2><strong>UK falls fast then recovers<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The UK has the second-largest projected drop after Italy. According to OECD projections, real wages fall 0.6% in the second quarter of 2026 and 1.5% in the third. They bottom out in the fourth quarter at 1.6% below their first-quarter level.<\/p>\n<p>The recovery is quicker. The decline eases to 1.1% in the first quarter of 2027 and 0.4% in the second. Real wages then move above their early 2026 level, up 0.4% in the third quarter and 1% by the end of 2027.<\/p>\n<p>With annual inflation rising to 3.1% in August, pay remains under pressure.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The outlook for real pay growth in the UK remains challenging. The UK is particularly exposed to energy price volatility as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. This means inflation is expected to remain higher for longer than in comparable European economies into 2027,\u201d Charles Cotton, senior reward and performance adviser at the CIPD, told Euronews Business. <\/p>\n<p>He noted that the CIPD&#8217;s Labour Market Outlook suggests employers are becoming increasingly cautious about future pay awards. Rising employment costs, including higher employer National Insurance contributions and increases to minimum wage rates, combined with wider cost pressures such as rising supplier costs, are constraining pay budgets.<\/p>\n<h2>France <strong>sees a smaller decline<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>France reaches its lowest point earlier, with real wages projected to fall 0.5% in the second quarter of 2026. The gap then narrows. Real wages return to their first-quarter 2026 level in the second quarter of 2027 and end 2027 just 0.1% higher.<\/p>\n<p>September\u2019s estimated annual inflation rate of 3.4% was below the eurozone\u2019s 3.8%.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn France, inflation remains relatively low thanks to nuclear power, but wages are expected to adjust only slowly as unemployment continues to rise,\u201d Georgieff said. <\/p>\n<p>Real wages are projected to fall year-on-year in these four major economies between the first quarters of 2026 and 2027. <\/p>\n<h2><strong>Germany is the exception<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Germany is the only country among the five where real wages are projected to rise throughout the period, <strong>despite annual inflation reaching an estimated 3.3% in September<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>The gain is small at first, at 0.1% in the second quarter of 2026 and 0.5% by the end of the year.<\/p>\n<p>Growth accelerates in 2027, with real wages projected to be 1.1% higher by the second quarter and 1.7% higher by the fourth. This is the strongest result among the five.<\/p>\n<p>Georgieff noted that Germany&#8217;s wage projections are boosted by a comparatively tight labour market, with skilled labour shortages and better unemployment prospects. A large debt-financed fiscal expansion is also supporting activity.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Why are real wages growing in Germany?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Enzo Weber, a professor at the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), noted that real wages in Germany were particularly weak in the first years of the 2020s due to surging inflation. \u201cAfterwards, nominal wages started to catch up, supported by collective wage bargaining. What we see at the moment is still driven by this development,\u201d he told Euronews Business. <\/p>\n<p>He noted that the minimum wage increased by 8.4 <strong>%<\/strong> at the beginning of 2026 and will increase by a further 5% in 2027.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cGermany witnessed several stagnation years. Now the business cycle recovers with capacity utilisation clearly increasing. This boosts productivity and creates more room for wage increases despite the crisis in manufacturing,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>                                  Go to accessibility shortcuts<\/p>\n<div class=\"c-article-share-comment u-align-items-center u-display-flex\"><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__links u-align-items-center u-display-flex u-justify-content-center js-c-article-share-comment-share\"><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__label\">Share<\/span><\/span><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__label\">Comments<\/span><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__label c-article-share-comment__label--always\">Add Euronews on Google<\/span><\/div>\n<div id=\"adb-article-you-might-also-like\" class=\"perf-cv-auto c-article-you-might-also-like\">\n<h2 class=\"c-article-you-might-also-like__title\">\n        Read more<br \/>\n      <\/h2>\n<div class=\"c-article-you-might-also-like__container\">\n<article id=\"abe-2910307-pos0-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1\" data-nid=\"2910307\" data-cid=\"9840267\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2910307-label-pos0-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/84\/02\/67\/480x270_cmsv2_14005598-d579-5cef-be0a-9f3047de33a1-9840267.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Real wages in Europe.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Economy<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Does your salary buy as much as five years ago? Europe compared<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2888134-pos1-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1\" data-nid=\"2888134\" data-cid=\"9731527\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2888134-label-pos1-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/63\/90\/48\/480x270_cmsv2_8af9e424-554c-514e-9ba2-2e63f35ac066-9639048.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"A person poses with euro banknotes withdrawn from an ATM in Sofia, Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026, as the country joins the euro currency union. \" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Economy<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Europe\u2019s wage growth since 2020: Are Europeans better off?<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2881798-pos2-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1\" data-nid=\"2881798\" data-cid=\"9701104\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2881798-label-pos2-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/70\/11\/04\/480x270_cmsv2_26f7839a-da5d-5e82-b857-c21ac8bad550-9701104.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Demonstrators take part in a march organized by Italy&apos;s main labor unions, in Rome&apos;s St. John Lateran square, Saturday, Oct. 16, 2021.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Business<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    European real wages near pre-COVID levels, but Iran crisis poses risks<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"perf-cv-auto\">\n<ul id=\"adb-article-tags\" class=\"c-tags-list\">\n<li class=\"c-tags-list__item\">\n<section class=\"tc-cta\" data-twig-component=\"Cta-default\">\n  Israel Iran conflict<br \/>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-tags-list__item\">\n<section class=\"tc-cta\" data-twig-component=\"Cta-default\">\n  wages<br \/>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-tags-list__item\">\n<section class=\"tc-cta\" data-twig-component=\"Cta-default\">\n  salaries<br \/>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-tags-list__item\">\n<section class=\"tc-cta\" data-twig-component=\"Cta-default\">\n  Euronews Compare<br \/>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-tags-list__item\">\n<section class=\"tc-cta\" data-twig-component=\"Cta-default\">\n  Inflation<br \/>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tp-vuukle\">\n<div class=\"c-vuukle-skeleton\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n<div class=\"c-vuukle-skeleton__header\"><span class=\"c-vuukle-skeleton__title\">Comments<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"o-article-newsy__aside\">\n<div class=\"c-ad-wrapper o-article-newsy__aside__content-1\" data-ad-name=\"adzone-halfpage\">\n<div class=\"c-ad c-ad-halfpage u-show-for-desktop\">\n<div class=\"c-ad__placeholder\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"c-ad__placeholder__logo\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/logos\/logo-euronews-stacked-outlined-72x72-grey-9.svg\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" alt><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-ad u-show-for-mobile-only\">\n<div class=\"c-ad__placeholder\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"c-ad__placeholder__logo\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/logos\/logo-euronews-stacked-outlined-72x72-grey-9.svg\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" alt><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"adb-article-top-stories\" class=\"perf-cv-auto c-top-stories\">\n<h2 class=\"c-top-stories__title\">Top stories<\/h2>\n<div class=\"c-top-stories__item\">\n<article id=\"abe-2932086-pos2-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2932086\" data-cid=\"9944784\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2932086-label-pos2-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/94\/47\/84\/320x180_cmsv2_efdb0873-77fe-5914-8583-de2811a7eb13-9944784.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Are eurozone bond markets warning of a recession as growth slows?<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-top-stories__item\">\n<article id=\"abe-2932007-pos3-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2932007\" data-cid=\"9944287\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2932007-label-pos3-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/94\/42\/87\/320x180_cmsv2_5f55900b-ac9b-596a-b122-56ff96173190-9944287.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"QatarEnergy LNG facilities pictured at dusk. File photo.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    QatarEnergy eyes LNG production in early 2027 amid $3bn loan reports<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-top-stories__item\">\n<article id=\"abe-2931677-pos4-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2931677\" data-cid=\"9942681\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2931677-label-pos4-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/94\/26\/81\/320x180_cmsv2_22300f64-7779-5a8d-95a8-94134be1a718-9942681.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"FILE. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen attends a joint debate ahead to the 15-16 October EU summit in Strasbourg, France, 6 Oct. 2026\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    EU debt could hit \u20ac1 trillion by 2027, auditors warn<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-top-stories__item\">\n<article id=\"abe-2932049-pos5-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2932049\" data-cid=\"9944562\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2932049-label-pos5-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/94\/45\/62\/320x180_cmsv2_1f37b85e-8432-5e5d-90b2-fa75e7b006d0-9944562.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche presents the federal government&apos;s fall economic forecast in Berlin, Germany, Thursday, 8 Oct. 2026. \" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Germany lifts GDP forecast as economy withstands Iran war<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-top-stories__item\">\n<article id=\"abe-2931780-pos6-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2931780\" data-cid=\"9943139\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2931780-label-pos6-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/94\/31\/39\/320x180_cmsv2_2c30e94b-0332-54c0-8da4-9aa0bd9fd464-9943139.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"A motorboat passes an anchored cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, early Monday, Sept. 28, 2026.\" 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height=\"72\" alt><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"perf-cv-auto c-most-viewed\">\n<h2 class=\"c-most-viewed__title qa-section-title\">Most read<\/h2>\n<div class=\"c-most-viewed__list\">\n<div class=\"c-most-viewed__item\"><span class=\"c-most-viewed__item__number\">1<\/span><\/p>\n<article id=\"abe-2931482-pos1-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 the-media-object--has-related the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2931482\" data-cid=\"9941810\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Real wages set to fall in major European economies, except Germany<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-most-viewed__item\"><span class=\"c-most-viewed__item__number\">2<\/span><\/p>\n<article id=\"abe-2926143-pos2-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 the-media-object--no-label\" 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m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1\" data-nid=\"2910307\" data-cid=\"9840267\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2910307-label-pos0-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/84\/02\/67\/480x270_cmsv2_14005598-d579-5cef-be0a-9f3047de33a1-9840267.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Real wages in Europe.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Economy<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Does your salary buy as much as five years ago? Europe compared<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2888134-pos1-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1\" data-nid=\"2888134\" data-cid=\"9731527\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2888134-label-pos1-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/63\/90\/48\/480x270_cmsv2_8af9e424-554c-514e-9ba2-2e63f35ac066-9639048.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"A person poses with euro banknotes withdrawn from an ATM in Sofia, Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026, as the country joins the euro currency union. \" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Economy<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Europe\u2019s wage growth since 2020: Are Europeans better off?<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2881798-pos2-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1\" data-nid=\"2881798\" data-cid=\"9701104\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2881798-label-pos2-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/70\/11\/04\/480x270_cmsv2_26f7839a-da5d-5e82-b857-c21ac8bad550-9701104.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Demonstrators take part in a march organized by Italy&apos;s main labor unions, in Rome&apos;s St. John Lateran square, Saturday, Oct. 16, 2021.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Business<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    European real wages near pre-COVID levels, but Iran crisis poses risks<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2932086-pos2-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2932086\" data-cid=\"9944784\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2932086-label-pos2-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/94\/47\/84\/320x180_cmsv2_efdb0873-77fe-5914-8583-de2811a7eb13-9944784.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Are eurozone bond markets warning of a recession as growth slows?<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2932007-pos3-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2932007\" data-cid=\"9944287\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2932007-label-pos3-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/94\/42\/87\/320x180_cmsv2_5f55900b-ac9b-596a-b122-56ff96173190-9944287.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"QatarEnergy LNG facilities pictured at dusk. File photo.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    QatarEnergy eyes LNG production in early 2027 amid $3bn loan reports<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2931677-pos4-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2931677\" data-cid=\"9942681\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2931677-label-pos4-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/94\/26\/81\/320x180_cmsv2_22300f64-7779-5a8d-95a8-94134be1a718-9942681.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"FILE. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen attends a joint debate ahead to the 15-16 October EU summit in Strasbourg, France, 6 Oct. 2026\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    EU debt could hit \u20ac1 trillion by 2027, auditors warn<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2932049-pos5-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2932049\" data-cid=\"9944562\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2932049-label-pos5-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/94\/45\/62\/320x180_cmsv2_1f37b85e-8432-5e5d-90b2-fa75e7b006d0-9944562.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche presents the federal government&apos;s fall economic forecast in Berlin, Germany, Thursday, 8 Oct. 2026. \" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Germany lifts GDP forecast as economy withstands Iran war<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2931780-pos6-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2931780\" data-cid=\"9943139\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2931780-label-pos6-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/94\/31\/39\/320x180_cmsv2_2c30e94b-0332-54c0-8da4-9aa0bd9fd464-9943139.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"A motorboat passes an anchored cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, early Monday, Sept. 28, 2026.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Why higher oil prices are not saving Gulf economies from the Iran war<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2931482-pos1-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 the-media-object--has-related the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2931482\" data-cid=\"9941810\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Real wages set to fall in major European economies, except Germany<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2926143-pos2-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2926143\" data-cid=\"9915475\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Tajikistan at 35: A new chapter of independence<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__quote\">Partner content presented by <strong>The Government of the Republic of Tajikistan<\/strong><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2931713-pos3-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2931713\" data-cid=\"9942780\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Mercedes global sales fall 6% as electric car sales hit record high<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2931182-pos4-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 the-media-object--has-related the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2931182\" data-cid=\"9940007\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    France&#8217;s sovereign debt crisis explained: How dangerous could it be?<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2931897-pos5-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 the-media-object--has-related the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2931897\" data-cid=\"9943676\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Oil tops $105 as Trump weighs return to Iran combat operations<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<div class=\"articleBody\" data-key=\"articleBody\">Real wages \u2014 pay adjusted for inflation \u2014 are projected to fall in Italy, Spain, France and the UK between the first quarters of 2026 and 2027, while rising in Germany, according to the OECD\u2019s Employment Outlook 2026. In Italy and Spain, they are expected to remain below their early 2026 levels until at least the end of 2027.\u201cIn the future, geopolitical uncertainties and a time-limited increase in energy costs may significantly weaken labour markets while exerting further upward pressure on inflation, which likely will depress wages,\u201d the report said.The report notes that projections are \u201cbased on the assumption that the disruptions from the conflict in the Middle East are sizeable but limited to a relatively short period of time\u201d.Alexandre Georgieff, an OECD economist and one of the report\u2019s authors, said differences in projected real wage growth can be explained by different outlooks for inflation, unemployment and labour market slack.Unless otherwise stated, all figures below compare real wages with their level in the first quarter of 2026.Across the eurozone as a whole, real wages are expected to fall by 0.4% in mid-2026 and return to their early 2026 level by the first quarter of 2027. By the end of 2027, they are projected to be 0.7% higher.\u00a0Italy sees the largest fallItaly is expected to record the largest decline in real wages among the five countries, falling 1.9% below its early 2026 level in the third quarter of that year.A slow recovery is expected to follow. The decline narrows to 1.4% in the first quarter of 2027. By the end of 2027, real wages in Italy are still projected to be 0.6% below their early 2026 level. Italy&#8217;s annual inflation rate was estimated to reach 4.1% in September.\u201cIn Italy, high energy costs are expected to wipe out recent real wage gains, reflecting the country&#8217;s heavy dependence on imported oil and gas,\u201d Georgieff told Euronews Business.\u201cIts recovery in 2027 is expected to be limited because few collective wage agreements are due for renewal that year and slack remains in the labour market.\u201d\u00a0Spain shows no recoverySpain&#8217;s decline is smaller, but it lasts. Real wages slip 0.4% in the third quarter of 2026 and 0.7% in the fourth.Spain&#8217;s decline is smaller but more persistent. Real wages are projected to fall 0.4% in the third quarter of 2026 and 0.7% in the fourth.They then remain 0.7% below their first-quarter 2026 level through all four quarters of 2027.By the end of 2027, Spain is projected to have the largest decline among the five major economies, at 0.7%.Georgieff said that Spain is expected to see strong job creation, but continue to face high inflation, largely driven by energy prices. Prices in Spain were estimated to be 5% higher in September compared with the year before.Italy and Spain are the only two countries among the five where real wages are projected to remain below their early 2026 levels at the end of 2027.UK falls fast then recoversThe UK has the second-largest projected drop after Italy. According to OECD projections, real wages fall 0.6% in the second quarter of 2026 and 1.5% in the third. They bottom out in the fourth quarter at 1.6% below their first-quarter level.The recovery is quicker. The decline eases to 1.1% in the first quarter of 2027 and 0.4% in the second. Real wages then move above their early 2026 level, up 0.4% in the third quarter and 1% by the end of 2027.With annual inflation rising to 3.1% in August, pay remains under pressure.&#8221;The outlook for real pay growth in the UK remains challenging. The UK is particularly exposed to energy price volatility as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. This means inflation is expected to remain higher for longer than in comparable European economies into 2027,\u201d Charles Cotton, senior reward and performance adviser at the CIPD, told Euronews Business.\u00a0He noted that the CIPD&#8217;s Labour Market Outlook suggests employers are becoming increasingly cautious about future pay awards. Rising employment costs, including higher employer National Insurance contributions and increases to minimum wage rates, combined with wider cost pressures such as rising supplier costs, are constraining pay budgets.France sees a smaller declineFrance reaches its lowest point earlier, with real wages projected to fall 0.5% in the second quarter of 2026. The gap then narrows. Real wages return to their first-quarter 2026 level in the second quarter of 2027 and end 2027 just 0.1% higher.September\u2019s estimated annual inflation rate of 3.4% was below the eurozone\u2019s 3.8%.\u201cIn France, inflation remains relatively low thanks to nuclear power, but wages are expected to adjust only slowly as unemployment continues to rise,\u201d Georgieff said.\u00a0Real wages are projected to fall year-on-year in these four major economies between the first quarters of 2026 and 2027.\u00a0Germany is the exceptionGermany is the only country among the five where real wages are projected to rise throughout the period, despite annual inflation reaching an estimated 3.3% in September.The gain is small at first, at 0.1% in the second quarter of 2026 and 0.5% by the end of the year.Growth accelerates in 2027, with real wages projected to be 1.1% higher by the second quarter and 1.7% higher by the fourth. This is the strongest result among the five.Georgieff noted that Germany&#8217;s wage projections are boosted by a comparatively tight labour market, with skilled labour shortages and better unemployment prospects. A large debt-financed fiscal expansion is also supporting activity.Why are real wages growing in Germany?Enzo Weber, a professor at the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), noted that real wages in Germany were particularly weak in the first years of the 2020s due to surging inflation. \u201cAfterwards, nominal wages started to catch up, supported by collective wage bargaining. What we see at the moment is still driven by this development,\u201d he told Euronews Business.\u00a0He noted that the minimum wage increased by 8.4 % at the beginning of 2026 and will increase by a further 5% in 2027.\u201cGermany witnessed several stagnation years. Now the business cycle recovers with capacity utilisation clearly increasing. This boosts productivity and creates more room for wage increases despite the crisis in manufacturing,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/div>\n<p>[analyse_source url=&#8221;https:\/\/www.euronews.com\/2026\/10\/08\/real-wages-set-to-fall-in-major-european-economies-except-germany&#8221;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/94\/18\/10\/1200x675_cmsv2_24840e67-065b-57fb-a1cd-bbe1878c4825-9941810.jpg&#8221;] Business QatarEnergy eyes LNG production in early 2027 amid $3bn loan reports Economy Are eurozone bond markets warning of a recession as growth slows? Health news Graphene opens new way to detect brain damage after stroke Climate El Ni\u00f1o could weaken the polar vortex. What does that mean for Europe? Business QatarEnergy [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[90],"tags":[226,36],"class_list":["post-2186928","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-international","tag-crawlmanager","tag-euronews-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2186928","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2186928"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2186928\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2186928"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2186928"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2186928"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}