{"id":2140871,"date":"2026-09-11T05:00:23","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T02:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2140871"},"modified":"2026-09-11T05:00:23","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T02:00:23","slug":"anthropic-says-ai-could-bring-both-15-growth-and-mass-unemployment-by-2030","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2140871","title":{"rendered":"Anthropic says AI could bring both 15% growth and mass unemployment by 2030"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/90\/84\/10\/1200x675_cmsv2_04ccd0f6-e2ba-5297-9b71-59b053735c93-9908410.jpg&#8221;]<\/p>\n<article id=\"abe-2925035-pos1-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1\" data-nid=\"2925035\" data-cid=\"9910644\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2925035-label-pos1-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/91\/06\/44\/189x106_cmsv2_439a750c-fb96-5730-a4c3-2e5cc49ff457-9910644.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov \" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Europe News<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    France joins Slovakia in asking to delist Russian oligarch Usmanov\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2925050-pos2-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1 the-media-object--has-video\" data-nid=\"2925050\" data-cid=\"9910707\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2925050-label-pos2-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/91\/07\/07\/189x106_cmsv2_85aa1d00-3aad-520b-8520-f54bcee81835-9910707.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"People join hands in prayer for Father Mychal Judge during a ceremony marking the 25th anniversary of the 9\/11 attacks in New York City on 11 September 2026.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    USA<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    US commemorates 25th anniversary of 9\/11 attacks\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2924914-pos3-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1\" data-nid=\"2924914\" data-cid=\"9910186\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2924914-label-pos3-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/91\/00\/86\/189x106_cmsv2_f6ae47d8-6cb9-57a4-9950-beb984b00e5e-9910086.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"French President Emmanuel Macron, accompanied by Education Minister \u00c9douard Geffray, at the Chaptal lyc\u00e9e in Mende, in southern France.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Europe News<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    French father jailed for threatening to behead his son\u2019s teacher\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2924917-pos4-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1\" data-nid=\"2924917\" data-cid=\"9910101\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2924917-label-pos4-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/91\/01\/01\/189x106_cmsv2_7fc23f7a-08fd-5b5b-8b1f-7afec493e2cd-9910101.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Four Russian ships belonging to the Syrian express\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Syria<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Russia returns to Mediterranean with sanctioned &#8216;Syrian Express&#8217; ships\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2925035-pos1-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2\" data-nid=\"2925035\" data-cid=\"9910644\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2925035-label-pos1-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/91\/06\/44\/189x106_cmsv2_439a750c-fb96-5730-a4c3-2e5cc49ff457-9910644.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov \" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Europe News<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    France joins Slovakia in asking to delist Russian oligarch Usmanov\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2925050-pos2-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--has-video\" data-nid=\"2925050\" data-cid=\"9910707\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2925050-label-pos2-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/91\/07\/07\/189x106_cmsv2_85aa1d00-3aad-520b-8520-f54bcee81835-9910707.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"People join hands in prayer for Father Mychal Judge during a ceremony marking the 25th anniversary of the 9\/11 attacks in New York City on 11 September 2026.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    USA<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    US commemorates 25th anniversary of 9\/11 attacks\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2924914-pos3-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2\" data-nid=\"2924914\" data-cid=\"9910186\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2924914-label-pos3-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/91\/00\/86\/189x106_cmsv2_f6ae47d8-6cb9-57a4-9950-beb984b00e5e-9910086.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"French President Emmanuel Macron, accompanied by Education Minister \u00c9douard Geffray, at the Chaptal lyc\u00e9e in Mende, in southern France.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Europe News<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    French father jailed for threatening to behead his son\u2019s teacher\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2924917-pos4-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2\" data-nid=\"2924917\" data-cid=\"9910101\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2924917-label-pos4-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/91\/01\/01\/189x106_cmsv2_7fc23f7a-08fd-5b5b-8b1f-7afec493e2cd-9910101.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Four Russian ships belonging to the Syrian express\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Syria<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Russia returns to Mediterranean with sanctioned &#8216;Syrian Express&#8217; ships\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"helper-site-row o-article-newsy\">\n<div class=\"helper-site-container o-article-newsy__container\">\n<div class=\"o-article-newsy__main\">\n<header class=\"h-grid o-article-newsy__main__header\">\n<nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumbs\" class=\"c-article-breadcrumbs\">\n<div id=\"adb-article-breadcrumb\" class=\"c-article-breadcrumbs__list\">\n<p>                          Business<\/p>\n<p>                          Economy<\/p><\/div>\n<\/nav>\n<h1 class=\"c-article-redesign-title\">\n                            Anthropic says AI could bring both 15% growth and mass unemployment by 2030<\/h1>\n<div class=\"c-article-image-video u-position-relative \">\n<div class=\"js-superdiv u-aspect-ratio-16x9 u-position-relative \" data-controller=\"video-player\" data-sponsored=\"Partner content\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"js-poster-img c-article-media__img\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/90\/84\/10\/1536x864_cmsv2_04ccd0f6-e2ba-5297-9b71-59b053735c93-9908410.jpg\" width=\"1536\" height=\"864\" loading=\"eager\" alt=\"FILE. A person works on a computer at the Department of Homeland Security&apos;s National Cybersecurity and Communications Integration Center in Arlington, Virginia, Aug. 2018\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-caption u-position-absolute\"><i id=\"article-caption-content\" class=\"c-article-caption__content\"><span class=\"c-article-caption__text\"><br \/>\n              FILE. A person works on a computer at the Department of Homeland Security&#8217;s National Cybersecurity and Communications Integration Center in Arlington, Virginia, Aug. 2018<br \/>\n                    <span class=\"u-color-white\">&#8211;\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"c-article-caption__copyright\">Copyright\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"c-article-caption__credit\">AP Photo\/Cliff Owen<\/span><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-image-copyright c-article-image-copyright--novideo\">\n      Copyright\u00a0AP Photo\/Cliff Owen\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"h-grid o-article-newsy__main__body u-article-content\">\n<div class=\"o-article-newsy__contributors-publication-date\">\n<div class=\"c-article-contributors\">\n  By&amp;nbspQuirino Mealha\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-publication-date\" data-timestamp=\"1789102823\">\n         Published on<br \/>\n            <time datetime=\"2026-09-11 07:00:23 +02:00\">11\/09\/2026 &#8211; 7:00 GMT+2<\/time><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div 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height=\"24\" alt=\"bluesky\" loading=\"lazy\"><span>Bluesky<\/span><\/span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-bluesky.svg\" width=\"48\" height=\"48\" alt=\"bluesky\" class=\"u-show-for-desktop\" loading=\"lazy\"><span class=\"u-display-flex u-gap-1 u-show-for-mobile-only\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-threads.svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" alt=\"threads\" loading=\"lazy\"><span>Threads<\/span><\/span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-threads.svg\" width=\"48\" height=\"48\" alt=\"threads\" class=\"u-show-for-desktop\" loading=\"lazy\"><span class=\"u-display-flex u-gap-1 u-show-for-mobile-only\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-whatsapp.svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" alt=\"whatsapp\" loading=\"lazy\"><span>Whatsapp<\/span><\/span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-whatsapp.svg\" width=\"48\" height=\"48\" alt=\"whatsapp\" class=\"u-show-for-desktop\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"c-article-summary\">\n        Anthropic has published an economic model projecting how AI might reshape the US economy by 2030, and its three scenarios range from barely perceptible to a boom with no historical precedent, including one in which GDP grows 15% a year while nearly a fifth of office workers are out of a job.<br \/>\n    <\/h2>\n<div class=\"c-article-content c-article-content--business js-article-content\">\n<p>The company behind Claude has put numbers on its own disruption.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"c-ad u-show-for-mobile-only\">\n<div class=\"c-ad__placeholder\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"c-ad__placeholder__logo\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/logos\/logo-euronews-stacked-outlined-72x72-grey-9.svg\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" alt loading=\"lazy\"><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-ad u-show-for-desktop\">\n<div class=\"c-ad__placeholder\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"c-ad__placeholder__logo\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/logos\/logo-euronews-stacked-outlined-72x72-grey-9.svg\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" alt loading=\"lazy\"><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Anthropic&#8217;s economics team released a technical paper and an interactive tool on Wednesday, modelling the economy as bundles of tasks that AI can leave alone, assist with, automate outright or create anew, then tracing what different rates of capability and adoption would mean for growth, wages and jobs in the US.<\/p>\n<p>The authors are explicit that these are not forecasts as the paper reads &#8220;the scenarios are not predictions and we attach no probabilities to them.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>In the modest scenario, AI turns out to be a minor technology.<\/p>\n<p>GDP in 2030 sits 1.6% above where it would be without AI, growth reaches 2.4% a year, and cognitive employment, meaning management, professional, sales and office work, falls half a percent. Unemployment barely moves.<\/p>\n<p>The substantial scenario doubles the economy&#8217;s normal growth rate to 5.4% as AI becomes capable of half of all knowledge work, though most tasks are still done without its assistance.<\/p>\n<p>GDP lands 8.3% higher, cognitive employment falls 3.9% and unemployment among office workers rises to 4.5%. Wages diverge as cognitive pay dips slightly while everyone else gains nearly 6%.<\/p>\n<p>The extreme scenario has no precedent.<\/p>\n<p>Annual growth hits 15.4%, GDP finishes 32.4% above the no-AI path and the economy would double roughly every four and a half years.<\/p>\n<p>However, cognitive employment collapses by 21.5%, unemployment among those workers reaches 17.9% and joblessness across the whole workforce hits 11.9%, worse than a typical recession. Office wages fall 11.5% while other wages jump 33.6%.<\/p>\n<p>The starkest number is who collects the proceeds.<\/p>\n<p>Labour&#8217;s share of national income drops from 60% to 45.2%, with capital income rising more than 80%.<\/p>\n<p>The machines would make the economy vastly richer while shifting the gains decisively from workers to asset owners.<\/p>\n<h2>What the public thinks and what the boss said<\/h2>\n<p>Anthropic paired the model with a Morning Consult survey of US adults fielded in August.<\/p>\n<p>According to the paper, the median respondent&#8217;s expectations map onto the substantial scenario, implying GDP roughly 8% higher by 2030 and cognitive employment down about 4%.<\/p>\n<p>That leaves the company&#8217;s own CEO as an outlier given that Dario Amodei warned in May 2025 that up to half of entry-level office jobs could disappear within five years, with unemployment reaching 10% to 20%, figures that sit squarely in the extreme scenario rather than the middle one.<\/p>\n<div class=\"c-widget-related\" data-stories-id data-event=\"widget_related\">\n<div class=\"c-widget-related__title\"><b class=\"c-widget-related__title__text\" lang=\"en\">Related<\/b><\/div>\n<ul class=\"c-widget-related__list\" id=\"abe-article-related-1\">\n<li class=\"c-widget-related__item\">Anthropic IPO: Five things to know before its Wall Street debut<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-widget-related__item\">&#8216;A gamble with our lives&#8217;: Ex-Anthropic researcher warns of AI &#8216;catastrophe&#8217;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p>Adoption, not capability, may prove decisive.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;If AI can do amazing things but nobody uses it, then it&#8217;s not going to have an economic impact,&#8221; said Anton Korinek, who leads Anthropic&#8217;s transformative AI economic studies.<\/p>\n<p>Co-founder Jack Clark expects rapid technical progress but slower uptake, telling NPR that &#8220;diffusion of the technology will likely be more challenging than people think.&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>The scenario that is not there<\/h2>\n<p>What the economic model does not include has drawn attention of its own.<\/p>\n<p>Every path assumes an economy that still functions, with no scenario for AI going badly wrong in the ways the industry itself keeps warning about.<\/p>\n<p>That gap looked pointed this week as Jacob Coxon, a 27-year-old researcher who worked at both OpenAI and Anthropic, resigned on Tuesday and published a thread explaining why.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Neither company is acting responsibly,&#8221; Coxon wrote, adding that &#8220;they are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>He also claimed colleagues privately believe the technology &#8220;could kill us all by the end of the decade&#8221; while executives soften their language publicly, and described the industry&#8217;s approach as &#8220;a hubristic gamble that should not be launched from a private company&#8217;s Slack.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Anthropic has itself disclosed that Claude models gained unauthorised access to the real systems of three organisations this year. Whether that belongs in an economic model is a fair question.<\/p>\n<p>When asked, Claude&#8217;s own answer is that it does not.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>                                  Go to accessibility shortcuts<\/p>\n<div class=\"c-article-share-comment u-align-items-center u-display-flex\"><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__links u-align-items-center u-display-flex u-justify-content-center js-c-article-share-comment-share\"><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__label\">Share<\/span><\/span><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__label\">Comments<\/span><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__label c-article-share-comment__label--always\">Add Euronews on Google<\/span><\/div>\n<div id=\"adb-article-you-might-also-like\" class=\"perf-cv-auto c-article-you-might-also-like\">\n<h2 class=\"c-article-you-might-also-like__title\">\n        Read more<br \/>\n      <\/h2>\n<div class=\"c-article-you-might-also-like__container\">\n<article id=\"abe-2924567-pos0-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1\" data-nid=\"2924567\" data-cid=\"9908147\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2924567-label-pos0-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/90\/81\/47\/480x270_cmsv2_d1eb621b-d73d-5ee9-97c6-58a1f04e9a04-9908147.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks at the Republican convention Wednesday, 9 Sept. 2026, in Dallas. \" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Economy<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    US Treasury yields surge as $6 billion bond buyback disappoints market<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2924358-pos1-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1\" data-nid=\"2924358\" data-cid=\"9907296\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2924358-label-pos1-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/90\/72\/96\/480x270_cmsv2_0f487370-4989-59bf-9ca9-d76abd8b9ed2-9907296.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"A motorboat passes a general cargo ship anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Sunday, Sept. 6, 2026.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Economy<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Which European countries import the most crude oil?<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2924823-pos2-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1 the-media-object--has-video\" data-nid=\"2924823\" data-cid=\"9909859\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2924823-label-pos2-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/90\/95\/25\/480x270_cmsv2_ecec82d8-9b69-5f2a-b7b4-2ca4e4777419-9909525.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"French Minister for the Economy, Finance and Industry Roland Lescure\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Economy<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    France cuts growth forecast as economy lags behind European neighbours<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"perf-cv-auto\">\n<ul id=\"adb-article-tags\" class=\"c-tags-list\">\n<li class=\"c-tags-list__item\">\n<section class=\"tc-cta\" data-twig-component=\"Cta-default\">\n  AI<br \/>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-tags-list__item\">\n<section class=\"tc-cta\" data-twig-component=\"Cta-default\">\n  Economic forecast<br \/>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-tags-list__item\">\n<section class=\"tc-cta\" data-twig-component=\"Cta-default\">\n  Dario Amodei<br \/>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-tags-list__item\">\n<section class=\"tc-cta\" data-twig-component=\"Cta-default\">\n  New technologies<br \/>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-tags-list__item\">\n<section class=\"tc-cta\" data-twig-component=\"Cta-default\">\n  Anthropic\u00a0<br \/>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-tags-list__item\">\n<section class=\"tc-cta\" data-twig-component=\"Cta-default\">\n  Claude<br \/>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tp-vuukle\">\n<div class=\"c-vuukle-skeleton\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n<div class=\"c-vuukle-skeleton__header\"><span class=\"c-vuukle-skeleton__title\">Comments<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<aside 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src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/logos\/logo-euronews-stacked-outlined-72x72-grey-9.svg\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" alt><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"perf-cv-auto c-most-viewed\">\n<h2 class=\"c-most-viewed__title qa-section-title\">Most read<\/h2>\n<div class=\"c-most-viewed__list\">\n<div class=\"c-most-viewed__item\"><span class=\"c-most-viewed__item__number\">1<\/span><\/p>\n<article id=\"abe-2923105-pos1-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2923105\" data-cid=\"9901892\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    STIHL chief calls for longer hours without extra pay in reform push<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-most-viewed__item\"><span class=\"c-most-viewed__item__number\">2<\/span><\/p>\n<article 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data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2924823-label-pos2-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/90\/95\/25\/480x270_cmsv2_ecec82d8-9b69-5f2a-b7b4-2ca4e4777419-9909525.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"French Minister for the Economy, Finance and Industry Roland Lescure\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Economy<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    France cuts growth forecast as economy lags behind European neighbours<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2924893-pos2-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2924893\" data-cid=\"9909905\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2924893-label-pos2-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/90\/99\/05\/320x180_cmsv2_b67a8daf-c130-53be-829a-9e5ec375767e-9909905.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Federal Reserve Board Chairman Kevin Warsh attends an observance ceremony on the 25th anniversary of the 9\/11 attacks at the Pentagon in Washington, 11 Sept. 2026\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    US inflation holds at 3.4% as monthly price rises hit fastest pace since May<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2924900-pos3-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2924900\" data-cid=\"9909929\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2924900-label-pos3-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/90\/99\/29\/320x180_cmsv2_cda13f2d-262c-526b-b67b-2ccd5fc706c2-9909929.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"File - Specialist Meric Greenbaum works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Wednesday, 14 June 2017.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    European bond yields hit multi-year highs as global sell-off continues<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2924633-pos4-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2924633\" data-cid=\"9908569\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2924633-label-pos4-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/90\/85\/69\/320x180_cmsv2_693b5c6f-344f-524b-afa7-a5fe0ac9f877-9908569.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen addresses European Parliament members in Strasbourg, March 2025.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    50 CEOs and investors urge Brussels not to dilute the EU Inc law<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2924762-pos5-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2924762\" data-cid=\"9909226\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2924762-label-pos5-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/90\/92\/26\/320x180_cmsv2_22ca208e-f448-54e5-8391-901604fbde84-9909226.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, address the media during a press conference following the ECB Governing Council&apos;s off-site meeting at the Deutsche B\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Can the ECB rate hike stop an inflation shock driven by energy costs?<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2924394-pos6-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--has-video the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2924394\" data-cid=\"9907417\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2924394-label-pos6-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/90\/74\/17\/320x180_cmsv2_463b6d43-9905-5262-af4a-109197edefe6-9907417.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"FILE. The Euro sculpture stands in front of the European Central Bank building in Frankfurt, Germany, June 2014\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    ECB raises rates to 2.5% as energy costs bite<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2923105-pos1-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2923105\" data-cid=\"9901892\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    STIHL chief calls for longer hours without extra pay in reform push<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2924567-pos2-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2924567\" data-cid=\"9908147\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    US Treasury yields surge as $6 billion bond buyback disappoints market<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2924358-pos3-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--has-related the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2924358\" data-cid=\"9907296\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Which European countries import the most crude oil?<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2804100-pos4-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--has-related the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2804100\" data-cid=\"9302664\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Europe\u2019s rising retirement ages: One country leads\u2014which will follow?<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-795514-pos5-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"795514\" data-cid=\"3983694\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Which European countries are the most expensive?<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<div class=\"articleBody\" data-key=\"articleBody\">The company behind Claude has put numbers on its own disruption.Anthropic&#8217;s economics team released a technical paper and an interactive tool on Wednesday, modelling the economy as bundles of tasks that AI can leave alone, assist with, automate outright or create anew, then tracing what different rates of capability and adoption would mean for growth, wages and jobs in the US.The authors are explicit that these are not forecasts as the paper reads &#8220;the scenarios are not predictions and we attach no probabilities to them.&#8221;In the modest scenario, AI turns out to be a minor technology.GDP in 2030 sits 1.6% above where it would be without AI, growth reaches 2.4% a year, and cognitive employment, meaning management, professional, sales and office work, falls half a percent. Unemployment barely moves.The substantial scenario doubles the economy&#8217;s normal growth rate to 5.4% as AI becomes capable of half of all knowledge work, though most tasks are still done without its assistance.GDP lands 8.3% higher, cognitive employment falls 3.9% and unemployment among office workers rises to 4.5%. Wages diverge as cognitive pay dips slightly while everyone else gains nearly 6%.The extreme scenario has no precedent.Annual growth hits 15.4%, GDP finishes 32.4% above the no-AI path and the economy would double roughly every four and a half years.However, cognitive employment collapses by 21.5%, unemployment among those workers reaches 17.9% and joblessness across the whole workforce hits 11.9%, worse than a typical recession. Office wages fall 11.5% while other wages jump 33.6%.The starkest number is who collects the proceeds.Labour&#8217;s share of national income drops from 60% to 45.2%, with capital income rising more than 80%.The machines would make the economy vastly richer while shifting the gains decisively from workers to asset owners.What the public thinks and what the boss saidAnthropic paired the model with a Morning Consult survey of US adults fielded in August.According to the paper, the median respondent&#8217;s expectations map onto the substantial scenario, implying GDP roughly 8% higher by 2030 and cognitive employment down about 4%.That leaves the company&#8217;s own CEO as an outlier given that Dario Amodei warned in May 2025 that up to half of entry-level office jobs could disappear within five years, with unemployment reaching 10% to 20%, figures that sit squarely in the extreme scenario rather than the middle one.Adoption, not capability, may prove decisive.&#8221;If AI can do amazing things but nobody uses it, then it&#8217;s not going to have an economic impact,&#8221; said Anton Korinek, who leads Anthropic&#8217;s transformative AI economic studies.Co-founder Jack Clark expects rapid technical progress but slower uptake, telling NPR that &#8220;diffusion of the technology will likely be more challenging than people think.&#8221;The scenario that is not thereWhat the economic model does not include has drawn attention of its own.Every path assumes an economy that still functions, with no scenario for AI going badly wrong in the ways the industry itself keeps warning about.That gap looked pointed this week as Jacob Coxon, a 27-year-old researcher who worked at both OpenAI and Anthropic, resigned on Tuesday and published a thread explaining why.&#8221;Neither company is acting responsibly,&#8221; Coxon wrote, adding that &#8220;they are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence.&#8221;He also claimed colleagues privately believe the technology &#8220;could kill us all by the end of the decade&#8221; while executives soften their language publicly, and described the industry&#8217;s approach as &#8220;a hubristic gamble that should not be launched from a private company&#8217;s Slack.&#8221;Anthropic has itself disclosed that Claude models gained unauthorised access to the real systems of three organisations this year. Whether that belongs in an economic model is a fair question.When asked, Claude&#8217;s own answer is that it does not.<\/div>\n<p>[analyse_source url=&#8221;https:\/\/www.euronews.com\/business\/2026\/09\/11\/anthropic-says-ai-could-bring-both-15-growth-and-mass-unemployment-by-2030&#8243;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/90\/84\/10\/1200x675_cmsv2_04ccd0f6-e2ba-5297-9b71-59b053735c93-9908410.jpg&#8221;] Europe News France joins Slovakia in asking to delist Russian oligarch Usmanov USA US commemorates 25th anniversary of 9\/11 attacks Europe News French father jailed for threatening to behead his son\u2019s teacher Syria Russia returns to Mediterranean with sanctioned &#8216;Syrian Express&#8217; ships Europe News France joins Slovakia in asking to delist Russian [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[90],"tags":[226,36],"class_list":["post-2140871","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-international","tag-crawlmanager","tag-euronews-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2140871","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2140871"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2140871\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2140871"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2140871"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2140871"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}