{"id":2139780,"date":"2026-09-11T03:56:08","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T00:56:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2139780"},"modified":"2026-09-11T03:56:08","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T00:56:08","slug":"dobanzile-ar-putea-ramane-ridicate-mai-mult-timp-inflatia-si-petrolul-pun-fed-in-fata-unor-noi-majorari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2139780","title":{"rendered":"Dob\u00e2nzile ar putea r\u0103m\u00e2ne ridicate mai mult timp. Infla\u021bia \u0219i petrolul pun Fed \u00een fa\u021ba unor noi major\u0103ri"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/cdn.adh.reperio.news\/image-4\/4213fd95-24d5-4426-9d0f-b160d7d94a0f\/index.jpeg?p=f%3Djpeg%26w%3D1200%26h%3D630%26r%3Dcover%26c%3D0.062%252C0%252C0.938%252C1&#8243;]<\/p>\n<article class=\"svelte-x63bga\">\n<nav>\n<ul class=\"breadcrump svelte-1pk9a69\">\n<li class=\"svelte-1pk9a69\"><a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/\" title=\"Adev\u0103rul\" class=\"svelte-1pk9a69\">Home<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"svelte-1pk9a69\"><a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/stiri-externe\" class=\"svelte-1pk9a69\">\u0218tiri Externe<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"svelte-1pk9a69\"><a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/stiri-externe\/sua\" class=\"svelte-1pk9a69\">SUA<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"svelte-1pk9a69\"><a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/stiri-externe\/sua\/dobanzile-ar-putea-ramane-ridicate-mai-mult-timp-2556808.html\" class=\"svelte-1pk9a69\">Dob\u00e2nzile ar putea r\u0103m\u00e2ne ridicate mai mult timp. Infla\u021bia \u0219i petrolul pun Fed \u00een fa\u021ba unor noi major\u0103ri<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/nav>\n<p><main class=\"svelte-x63bga\"><\/p>\n<p>Presiunile infla\u021bioniste \u0219i cre\u0219terea pre\u021bului petrolului sporesc \u0219ansele ca Rezerva Federal\u0103 a SUA s\u0103 majoreze dob\u00e2nda s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na viitoare, iar o nou\u0103 cre\u0219tere ar putea avea loc p\u00e2n\u0103 la sf\u00e2r\u0219itul anului. \u0218eful UBS avertizeaz\u0103, la r\u00e2ndul s\u0103u, c\u0103 investitorii trebuie s\u0103 se preg\u0103teasc\u0103 pentru dob\u00e2nzi mai ridicate pentru o perioad\u0103 mai lung\u0103.<\/p>\n<div class=\"container-image  svelte-1xbw4f3\"><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.adh.reperio.news\/image-4\/4213fd95-24d5-4426-9d0f-b160d7d94a0f\/index.jpeg?p=a%3D1%26co%3D1.05%26w%3D1400%26h%3D750%26r%3Dcontain%26c%3D0.062%252C0%252C0.938%252C1%26f%3Dwebp 1400w\" media=\"(min-width: 1400px)\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"caption svelte-1xbw4f3\"><span class=\"captionText svelte-1xbw4f3\">Dob\u00e2nzile ar putea r\u0103m\u00e2ne ridicate mai mult timp <span class=\"source svelte-1xbw4f3\">Foto: Shutterstock<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Traderii au crescut la 70% probabilitatea unei major\u0103ri a dob\u00e2nzii, dup\u0103 publicarea unui raport care a ar\u0103tat o cre\u0219tere a pre\u021burilor angro \u00een august, concomitent cu o cre\u0219tere a pre\u021bului petrolului american, care a dep\u0103\u0219it pragul de 100 de dolari pe baril, arat\u0103 indicatorul FedWatch al CME Group, potrivit <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/09\/10\/the-likelihood-of-a-fed-interest-rate-hike-next-week-just-got-a-lot-higher.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">CNBC.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>De asemenea, ace\u0219tia au majorat la aproape 60% probabilitatea unei alte cre\u0219teri a dob\u00e2nzii \u00een decembrie, \u00een condi\u021biile \u00een care dinamica infla\u021biei se dovede\u0219te persistent\u0103 \u0219i este tot mai probabil s\u0103 determine o reac\u021bie din partea b\u0103ncii centrale.<\/p>\n<p><i>\u201ePe m\u0103sur\u0103 ce conflictul cu Iranul se prelunge\u0219te mai mult dec\u00e2t se a\u0219teptau mul\u021bi, presiunile infla\u021bioniste devin tot mai bine \u00eenr\u0103d\u0103cinate, iar investitorii caut\u0103 un catalizator suficient de puternic pentru a schimba perspectiva asupra infla\u021biei\u201d,<\/i> a scris Jeffrey Roach, economist-\u0219ef al LPL Financial. <i>\u201e\u00cen acest ritm, o majorare a dob\u00e2nzii s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na viitoare pare probabil\u0103.\u201d<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Indicele pre\u021burilor de produc\u021bie (PPI), un indicator al presiunilor asupra costurilor angro \u0219i de-a lungul lan\u021bului de aprovizionare, a crescut cu 0,4% \u00een august. De\u0219i evolu\u021bia a fost \u00een linie cu estim\u0103rile, aceasta a venit dup\u0103 o cre\u0219tere de 0,1% \u00een iulie, revizuit\u0103 \u00een sus. Cele dou\u0103 evolu\u021bii au dus \u00eempreun\u0103 rata anual\u0103 a PPI la 5,4%, u\u0219or peste estim\u0103ri.<\/p>\n<p>\u00cen acela\u0219i timp, intensificarea ostilit\u0103\u021bilor \u00een Orientul Mijlociu i-a determinat pe traderii de m\u0103rfuri s\u0103 reac\u021bioneze, iar pre\u021bul petrolului american a crescut cu 4%, dep\u0103\u0219ind u\u0219or pragul de 100 de dolari pe baril.<\/p>\n<p>\u00cen cele din urm\u0103, Banca Central\u0103 European\u0103 a anun\u021bat o majorare a dob\u00e2nzii cu 0,25 puncte procentuale \u0219i \u0219i-a revizuit \u00een cre\u0219tere prognoza privind infla\u021bia, pe fondul temerilor c\u0103 r\u0103zboiul din Iran va avea efecte economice mai profunde \u0219i va exercita presiuni asupra pre\u021burilor de consum pe o perioad\u0103 mai lung\u0103.<\/p>\n<p><i>\u201ePresiunile vor continua s\u0103 creasc\u0103, deoarece pre\u021bul petrolului \u0219i al produselor rafinate a continuat s\u0103 urce de la momentul \u00een care au fost colectate datele pentru luna august\u201d<\/i>, a declarat David Russell, director global pentru strategia de pia\u021b\u0103 la TradeStation.<i> \u201eCre\u0219terea continu\u0103 a pre\u021bului petrolului, combinat\u0103 cu num\u0103rul redus al cererilor de ajutor de \u0219omaj, face dificil pentru Fed s\u0103 nu majoreze dob\u00e2nda s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na viitoare.\u201d<\/i><\/p>\n<h2>Infla\u021bia, \u00een centrul aten\u021biei \u00eenaintea deciziei Fed<\/h2>\n<p>Factorii de decizie din cadrul b\u0103ncii centrale vor avea vineri ultima ocazie de a analiza datele privind infla\u021bia, c\u00e2nd Biroul de Statistic\u0103 a Muncii va publica indicele pre\u021burilor de consum (CPI).<\/p>\n<p>Consensul Dow Jones indic\u0103 o rat\u0103 anual\u0103 de 3,4% pentru indicele general, \u00een timp ce rata de baz\u0103, care exclude pre\u021burile alimentelor \u0219i energiei, este estimat\u0103 la 2,4%.<\/p>\n<p>Fed se concentreaz\u0103 \u00eens\u0103 pe indicele pre\u021burilor pentru cheltuielile personale de consum (PCE), calculat de Departamentul Comer\u021bului, care indica \u00een iulie o infla\u021bie de baz\u0103 de 3,3% \u0219i o rat\u0103 general\u0103 de 3,7%. Pre\u0219edintele Fed, Kevin Warsh, a subliniat recent din nou c\u0103 indicele PCE reprezint\u0103 principalul indicator de referin\u021b\u0103 al b\u0103ncii centrale pentru infla\u021bie.<\/p>\n<p>Stephen Juneau, economist senior pentru SUA la Bank of America, a estimat c\u0103, lu\u00e2nd \u00een calcul datele PPI din august, infla\u021bia de baz\u0103 m\u0103surat\u0103 prin PCE se \u00eendreapt\u0103 spre o rat\u0103 lunar\u0103 de 0,26%, care ar fi rotunjit\u0103 la 0,3%.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"related-inline svelte-78g0vl\" data-gtrack=\"{&quot;event&quot;:&quot;utm_click&quot;,&quot;data&quot;:{&quot;event_category&quot;:&quot;article_related&quot;}}\" href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/economie\/romania-in-fata-unei-posibile-noi-crize-2554796.html\" title=\"Alt articol de interes pentru tine\"><span class=\"inline-title svelte-78g0vl\">Rom\u00e2nia, \u00een fa\u021ba unei posibile noi crize economice. Care sunt semnalele din pia\u021b\u0103 \u0219i ce spun anali\u0219tii<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><i>\u201eAcest indicator s-ar putea modifica semnificativ m\u00e2ine, dup\u0103 publicarea datelor CPI, dar dac\u0103 estimarea noastr\u0103 este corect\u0103, aceasta ar deschide calea pentru o majorare a dob\u00e2nzii la \u0219edin\u021ba Fed de s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na viitoare\u201d<\/i>, a spus Juneau \u00eentr-o not\u0103.<\/p>\n<p>Bank of America are una dintre cele mai agresive prognoze de pe Wall Street \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te politica Fed, anticip\u00e2nd trei major\u0103ri ale dob\u00e2nzii la urm\u0103toarele \u0219edin\u021be.<\/p>\n<p>De\u0219i aceast\u0103 perspectiv\u0103 difer\u0103 de estim\u0103rile actuale reflectate \u00een contractele futures, evolu\u021biile recente indic\u0103 faptul c\u0103 Fed ar putea adopta o pozi\u021bie mai agresiv\u0103 \u00een lupta \u00eempotriva infla\u021biei.<\/p>\n<h2>Investitorii, prea relaxa\u021bi \u00een fa\u021ba riscurilor globale<\/h2>\n<p>Pe fondul acestor presiuni asupra pie\u021belor, directorul general al UBS, Sergio Ermotti, a avertizat joi c\u0103 investitorii au devenit prea relaxa\u021bi \u00een ultimii ani, \u00een pofida acumul\u0103rii riscurilor geopolitice \u0219i economice.<\/p>\n<p><i>\u201ePe pie\u021bele financiare a existat un anumit grad de complacere \u00een ultimii ani\u201d<\/i>, i-a declarat Ermotti jurnalistei Christine Tan de la <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/09\/10\/ubs-ceo-sergio-ermotti-investor-complacency-piling-risks-.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">CNBC<\/a>, ad\u0103ug\u00e2nd c\u0103, \u00een actualul context, era de a\u0219teptat un nivel considerabil mai ridicat al volatilit\u0103\u021bii.<\/p>\n<p>De\u0219i pie\u021bele au traversat periodic episoade de turbulen\u021be, investi\u021biile consistente \u00een inteligen\u021b\u0103 artificial\u0103, centre de date \u0219i alte tehnologii noi au contribuit la sus\u021binerea cre\u0219terii economice \u0219i a pie\u021belor financiare, a spus el.<\/p>\n<p>\u0218eful UBS a avertizat c\u0103 investitorii se confrunt\u0103 cu un mediu tot mai complicat, marcat de mai multe presiuni simultane. <i>\u201eApar probleme sau chestiuni noi f\u0103r\u0103 ca vreuna dintre cele vechi s\u0103 fie rezolvat\u0103 sau \u00eenchis\u0103.\u201d<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Pie\u021bele se confrunt\u0103 cu o combina\u021bie de riscuri energetice \u0219i logistice generate de r\u0103zboaiele din Iran \u0219i Ucraina, la care se adaug\u0103 rivalitatea dintre SUA \u0219i China, care a pus presiune asupra lan\u021burilor de aprovizionare. \u00cen acela\u0219i timp, costurile mai ridicate ale \u00eemprumuturilor \u0219i infla\u021bia persistent\u0103 au devenit factori care afecteaz\u0103 negativ cre\u0219terea economic\u0103.<\/p>\n<p>Potrivit lui Ermotti, aceast\u0103 incertitudine \u00eei determin\u0103 pe unii dintre cei mai boga\u021bi investitori din lume s\u0103-\u0219i diversifice mai mult investi\u021biile, \u00een loc s\u0103 fac\u0103 pariuri majore \u00eentr-o singur\u0103 direc\u021bie.<\/p>\n<p><i>\u201eEste destul de dificil \u00een acest mediu \u0219i nu este cu adev\u0103rat recomandabil s\u0103 ai prea multe convingeri puternice\u201d<\/i>, a spus Ermotti.<\/p>\n<h2>Dob\u00e2nzi ridicate pentru o perioad\u0103 mai lung\u0103<\/h2>\n<p>Dob\u00e2nzile mai ridicate \u00eei determin\u0103, de asemenea, pe investitori s\u0103 adopte o abordare mai echilibrat\u0103 \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te portofoliile lor, a spus Ermotti, \u00een condi\u021biile \u00een care infla\u021bia persistent\u0103 men\u021bine presiunea asupra b\u0103ncilor centrale.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"related-inline svelte-78g0vl\" data-gtrack=\"{&quot;event&quot;:&quot;utm_click&quot;,&quot;data&quot;:{&quot;event_category&quot;:&quot;article_related&quot;}}\" href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/economie\/pretul-petrolului-brent-depaseste-100-de-dolari-pe-2555101.html\" title=\"Alt articol de interes pentru tine\"><span class=\"inline-title svelte-78g0vl\">Pre\u021bul petrolului Brent dep\u0103\u0219e\u0219te 100 de dolari pe baril, pe fondul intensific\u0103rii conflictului din Orientul Mijlociu<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Infla\u021bia s-a men\u021binut persistent\u0103 \u0219i peste \u021bintele b\u0103ncilor centrale \u00een ultimul an, ceea ce face ca o continuare a \u00een\u0103spririi politicii monetare s\u0103 nu fie surprinz\u0103toare, potrivit directorului general al UBS. El se a\u0219teapt\u0103 ca principalele b\u0103nci centrale, inclusiv Banca Central\u0103 European\u0103, Rezerva Federal\u0103 \u0219i Banca Japoniei, s\u0103 majoreze dob\u00e2nzile \u00een urm\u0103toarele luni.<\/p>\n<p><i>\u201eBCE <\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/economie\/banca-centrala-europeana-decide-astazi-daca-2555283.html\">ar putea \u00eencepe procesul de majorare a dob\u00e2nzilor<\/a><i>. Fed \u00eei va urma exemplul. Ne a\u0219tept\u0103m la c\u00e2teva major\u0103ri \u00een urm\u0103toarele luni\u201d<\/i>, a spus Ermotti.<\/p>\n<p>Asta \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 investitorii nu ar trebui s\u0103 se a\u0219tepte ca dob\u00e2nzile la credite s\u0103 revin\u0103 rapid la nivelurile sc\u0103zute de dinaintea ultimelor presiuni infla\u021bioniste.<\/p>\n<p><i>\u201ePresiunile infla\u021bioniste sunt \u00eenc\u0103 prezente \u0219i nu se reduc, prin urmare cred c\u0103 este rezonabil s\u0103 ne a\u0219tept\u0103m la dob\u00e2nzi mai ridicate \u00een viitorul previzibil\u201d<\/i>, a spus Ermotti.<\/p>\n<p><\/main><\/p>\n<footer class=\"svelte-x63bga\">\n<div class=\"related-wrap related-footer svelte-78g0vl\"><span class=\"related-label svelte-78g0vl\">Cite\u0219te \u0219i<\/span><a class=\"related svelte-78g0vl\" data-gtrack=\"{&quot;event&quot;:&quot;utm_click&quot;,&quot;data&quot;:{&quot;event_category&quot;:&quot;article_related&quot;}}\" href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/economie\/ce-se-intampla-cu-ratele-si-cursul-euro-dupa-2556664.html\" title=\"Alt articol de interes pentru tine\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"thumb svelte-78g0vl\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.adh.reperio.news\/image-a\/a21c6437-6ec3-4eb5-99c9-d7f3410e9848\/index.jpeg?p=f%3Dwebp%26w%3D120%26h%3D80%26r%3Dcover%26a%3D0\" alt loading=\"lazy\" width=\"80\" height=\"54\"><span class=\"title svelte-78g0vl\">Ce se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 cu ratele \u0219i cursul euro dup\u0103 majorarea dob\u00e2nzii \u00een Europa. Efectele pentru Rom\u00e2nia<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"meta svelte-x63bga\">\n<div class=\"authors svelte-x63bga\"><span class=\"names svelte-x63bga\"><a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/author\/46\" rel=\"author\" class=\"svelte-x63bga\">Teodora Marinescu<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"_hydratable\" data-props=\"%7B%22showLive%22%3Atrue%7D\" data-context=\"%7B%22parentBlockColumnCount%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3A0%2C%22type%22%3A%22store%2Freadable%22%7D%2C%22parentBlockBackgroundColor%22%3A%7B%22type%22%3A%22store%2Freadable%22%7D%7D\" data-component=\"ShareButton\">\n<div class=\"shareButtons svelte-itwbrr\">\n<div class=\"liveSessions metaFont svelte-1maxmbf\"><span class=\"value svelte-1maxmbf\">1<\/span> live <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tags svelte-1l3vwp1\"><span class=\"tags-label metaFont svelte-1l3vwp1\">Cite\u0219te mai multe despre<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"tags-list svelte-1l3vwp1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/tag\/inflatie\" title=\"Ultimele \u0219tiri despre inflatie\" class=\"tag-pill svelte-1l3vwp1\">inflatie<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/tag\/dobanzi\" title=\"Ultimele \u0219tiri despre dobanzi\" class=\"tag-pill svelte-1l3vwp1\">dobanzi<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/tag\/majorari\" title=\"Ultimele \u0219tiri despre majorari\" class=\"tag-pill svelte-1l3vwp1\">majorari<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/tag\/ubs\" title=\"Ultimele \u0219tiri despre ubs\" class=\"tag-pill svelte-1l3vwp1\">ubs<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a class=\"moreFromCategory svelte-x63bga\" href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/stiri-externe\/sua\" title=\"S.U.A\">Mai multe din <strong class=\"svelte-x63bga\">SUA<\/strong> \u203a<\/a><\/footer>\n<\/article>\n<p>[analyse_source url=&#8221;https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/stiri-externe\/sua\/dobanzile-ar-putea-ramane-ridicate-mai-mult-timp-2556808.html&#8221;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/cdn.adh.reperio.news\/image-4\/4213fd95-24d5-4426-9d0f-b160d7d94a0f\/index.jpeg?p=f%3Djpeg%26w%3D1200%26h%3D630%26r%3Dcover%26c%3D0.062%252C0%252C0.938%252C1&#8243;] Home \u0218tiri Externe SUA Dob\u00e2nzile ar putea r\u0103m\u00e2ne ridicate mai mult timp. Infla\u021bia \u0219i petrolul pun Fed \u00een fa\u021ba unor noi major\u0103ri Presiunile infla\u021bioniste \u0219i cre\u0219terea pre\u021bului petrolului sporesc \u0219ansele ca Rezerva Federal\u0103 a SUA s\u0103 majoreze dob\u00e2nda s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na viitoare, iar o nou\u0103 cre\u0219tere ar putea avea loc p\u00e2n\u0103 la sf\u00e2r\u0219itul anului. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[89],"tags":[19,226],"class_list":["post-2139780","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-romania","tag-adevarul","tag-crawlmanager"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2139780","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2139780"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2139780\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2139780"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2139780"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2139780"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}