{"id":2132662,"date":"2026-09-07T15:07:31","date_gmt":"2026-09-07T12:07:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2132662"},"modified":"2026-09-07T15:07:31","modified_gmt":"2026-09-07T12:07:31","slug":"avansul-afd-in-germania-si-trendul-aur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2132662","title":{"rendered":"Avansul AfD \u00een Germania \u0219i trendul AUR"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/cdn.adh.reperio.news\/image-4\/4efceeee-964f-487d-8453-b5d951a74190\/index.png?p=f%3Djpeg%26w%3D1200%26h%3D630%26r%3Dcover&#8221;]<\/p>\n<article class=\"svelte-x63bga\">\n<nav>\n<ul class=\"breadcrump svelte-1pk9a69\">\n<li class=\"svelte-1pk9a69\"><a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/\" title=\"Adev\u0103rul\" class=\"svelte-1pk9a69\">Home<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"svelte-1pk9a69\"><a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/blogurile-adevarul\" class=\"svelte-1pk9a69\">Opinii<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"svelte-1pk9a69\"><a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/blogurile-adevarul\/avansul-afd-in-germania-si-trendul-aur-2554678.html\" class=\"svelte-1pk9a69\">Avansul AfD \u00een Germania \u0219i trendul AUR<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/nav>\n<p><main class=\"svelte-x63bga\"><\/p>\n<h2>Ce leg\u0103tur\u0103 are r\u0103zboiul din Ucraina cu votul \u00een favoarea partidului par\u021bial extremist de dreapta AfD \u00een Germania \u0219i de ce propaganda rus\u0103 \u0219i r\u0103zboiul hibrid al Moscovei \u00eei ajut\u0103 pe populi\u0219tii de dreapta?<\/h2>\n<div class=\"container-image  svelte-1xbw4f3\"><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.adh.reperio.news\/image-4\/4efceeee-964f-487d-8453-b5d951a74190\/index.png?p=a%3D1%26co%3D1.05%26w%3D1400%26h%3D613%26r%3Dcontain%26f%3Dwebp 1400w\" media=\"(min-width: 1400px)\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"caption svelte-1xbw4f3\"><span class=\"captionText svelte-1xbw4f3\">Ulrich Siegmund, principalul candidat al AfD din Saxonia-Anhalt <span class=\"source svelte-1xbw4f3\">Foto: Revierfoto\/dpa\/picture alliance<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Alternativa pentru Germania (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/ro\/afd\/t-50013262\" rel=\"nofollow\">AfD, Alternative f\u00fcr Deutschland<\/a>) a c\u00e2\u0219tigat deta\u0219at alegerile din landul estic Saxonia-Anhalt. Pentru prima dat\u0103 dup\u0103 cel de-al Doilea R\u0103zboi Mondial, un partid considerat par\u021bial de extrem\u0103 dreapta ob\u021bine un rezultat at\u00e2t de bun: aproape 44% potrivit rezultatelor par\u021biale, un scor mai mult dec\u00e2t dublu fa\u021b\u0103 de cre\u0219tin-democra\u021bi, care au ajuns la mai pu\u021bin de 18%.<\/p>\n<p>\u00cen Rom\u00e2nia,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/ro\/aur\/t-66344747\" rel=\"nofollow\">AUR<\/a>\u00a0se afl\u0103 \u00eentre 36% \u0219i 38%, dublu fa\u021b\u0103 de PSD, cel mai mare partid autohton. Nu e clar dac\u0103 radicalii de la AUR \u00ee\u0219i vor putea men\u021bine acest scor pe fondul disensiunilor dintre diferitele tabere din partid. Oricum, Alian\u021ba pentru Unirea Rom\u00e2nilor (AUR) este deja al doilea cel partid din parlament cu 18%, dar deocamdat\u0103 nu a reu\u0219it s\u0103 se coalizeze \u00een mod sistematic cu celelalte forma\u021biuni na\u021bionalist-populiste, SOS \u0219i POT, ai c\u0103ror parlamentari migreaz\u0103 spre\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/ro\/partidul-social-democrat\/t-66456334\" rel=\"nofollow\">PSD<\/a>\u00a0\u0219i\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/ro\/partidul-na%C8%9Bional-liberal\/t-66456356\" rel=\"nofollow\">PNL<\/a>. \u00cen total, cele trei forma\u021biuni extremiste au c\u00e2\u0219tigat la scrutinul din 2024\u00a0aproape o treime din locurile parlamentare. Acest rezultat are ca efect, \u00eentre altele, lunga criz\u0103 politic\u0103 de la Bucure\u0219ti, fiindc\u0103 forma\u021biunile considerate democrate au \u00eencercat s\u0103 izoleze AUR \u00een a\u0219a fel \u00eenc\u00e2t s\u0103 nu exist\u0103 riscul ca acest partid s\u0103 ajung\u0103 la guvernare.<\/p>\n<h2>Ce se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 \u00een Germania poate fi o repeti\u021bie pentru ce s-ar \u00eent\u00e2mpla \u00een Rom\u00e2nia?<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/ro\/saxonia-anhalt-afd-%C3%AEn-plin%C4%83-ascensiune-cdu-%C3%AEn-stare-de-%C8%99oc\/a-79089315\" rel=\"nofollow\">AfD<\/a>\u00a0a reu\u0219it s\u0103 adune un scor at\u00e2t de mare \u00eenc\u00e2t a ajuns aproape de o majoritate absolut\u0103 \u00een landul Saxonia-Anhaltin\u0103, ceea ce ar \u00eenseamna:<\/p>\n<p>(1) efecte imediate \u00een Germania de Est;<\/p>\n<p>(2) necesitatea de a izola AfD fie printr-o coali\u021bie greu de format din punct\u00a0 de vedere ideologic &#8211;\u00a0CDU-Partidul St\u00e2ngii-SPD-Verzi, fie printr-un guvern minoritate, la fel complicat de format;<\/p>\n<p>(3) ambele variante alimenteaz\u0103 \u00eens\u0103 nervozitatea aleg\u0103torilor extremi\u0219ti, care, la fel ca \u00een Rom\u00e2nia, acuz\u0103 forma\u021biunile democratice de cartelizare \u0219i de ignorarea voin\u021bei populare;<\/p>\n<p>(4) dezbaterea privind interzicerea AfD poate continua la nivel teoretic, dar practic vorbind, un partid cu un scor de aproape 44% \u00eentr-un land, fie el a\u0219a mic cum e\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/ro\/portretul-lui-ulrich-siegmund-extremistul-de-dreapta-mereu-bine-dispus\/a-78967079\" rel=\"nofollow\">Saxonia-Anhalt<\/a>, e imposibil de scos \u00een afara legii f\u0103r\u0103 a afecta legitimitatea sistemului juridic german, a\u0219a cum, \u00een Rom\u00e2nia, anularea alegerilor a creat o ruptur\u0103 at\u00e2t \u00een sistem, c\u00e2t \u0219i \u00een societate<\/p>\n<h2>De ce e periculos acest trend \u00een special \u00een Europa de Est?<\/h2>\n<p>Trendul cresc\u0103tor al apetitului pentru na\u021bionalism, populism, extremism se vede peste tot \u00een Europa, \u00een Estul continentului \u00eens\u0103 pericolul e mai mare.<\/p>\n<p>(1) \u00cen primul r\u00e2nd din cauza nostalgiei \u0219i a \u00eencrederii mai mari \u00een regimuri autoritariste\u00a0dec\u00e2t \u00een favoarea libert\u0103\u021bii individuale: 36% dintre slovaci \u0219i rom\u00e2ni, 33% dintre cehi consider\u0103 c\u0103 \u201eun sistem totalitar f\u0103r\u0103 alegeri\u00a0regulate e bun pentru \u021bara lor\u201d (GLOBSEC Trends 2025);<\/p>\n<p>(2) Ucraina pierde din sus\u021binere \u00een Europa de Est, inclusiv \u00een Rom\u00e2nia: 44,5% dintre rom\u00e2ni cred c\u0103 Rusia va c\u00e2\u0219tiga r\u0103zboiul (INSCOP, februarie 2026), fa\u021b\u0103 de 26% \u00een 2022 (INSCOP, mai 2022). Peste 50% dintre rom\u00e2ni credeau \u00een 2022 c\u0103 Ucraina va c\u00e2\u0219tiga r\u0103zboiul (INSCOP, mai 2022). \u00cen patru ani opiniile s-au schimbat complet.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>(3) Votan\u021bii AUR, la fel ca cei AfD, cred \u00een propor\u021bie mai mare c\u0103\u00a0Rom\u00e2nia nu trebuie s\u0103 ofere nicun ajutor Ucrainei \u0219i c\u0103 ar trebui s\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 neutr\u0103 dac\u0103 un stat\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/ro\/nato\/t-50044360\" rel=\"nofollow\">NATO<\/a>\u00a0e atacat (INSCOP, februarie 2026)<\/p>\n<p>(4) Electoratul AUR crede cel mai pu\u021bin c\u0103 NATO ar ap\u0103r\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia la nevoie. Cercet\u0103rile f\u0103cute de ECFR (European Council on Foreign Relations) scot \u00een eviden\u021b\u0103 c\u0103 \u00een cele mai multe state europene, majorit\u0103\u021bile v\u0103d Ucraina ca aliat sau partener necesar, dar pozi\u021bia dominant\u0103 e \u00eempotriva trimiterii de trupe pentru men\u021binerea p\u0103cii dup\u0103 r\u0103zboi (cu majorit\u0103\u021bi clare \u00een Germania,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/ro\/fran%C8%9Ba\/t-66459492\" rel=\"nofollow\">Fran\u021ba<\/a>\u00a0\u0219i Polonia). Rom\u00e2nia a declarat deja c\u0103 nu va trimite, de teama escalad\u0103rilor. Apoi, nu exist\u0103 consens pentru aderarea Ucrainei la UE, iar opozi\u021bia e puternic\u0103 \u00een Austria, Bulgaria \u0219i Ungaria.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>(5) Aleg\u0103torii extremi\u0219ti din Austria \u0219i Germania, din Polonia \u0219i cei ai Progressive Bulgaria (partidul populist aflat la guvernare) v\u0103d Ucraina \u00een primul r\u00e2nd ca pe un rival sau chiar adversar, o tenta\u021bie care exist\u0103 \u0219i \u00een Rom\u00e2nia.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>(6) Pe fondul crizei energetice declan\u0219ate odat\u0103 cu r\u0103zboiul din Iran, \u00eentoarcerea la petrolul \u0219i gazul rusesc este sus\u021binut\u0103 de Bulgaria, Ungaria \u0219i Italia, dar \u0219i \u00een majoritatea electoratelor radicale inclusiv AfD (Germania); RN (Fran\u021ba). Nici celelalte state nu sunt departe, iar Rom\u00e2nia a cump\u0103rat mereu\u00a0gaz \u0219i petrol rusesc, fie prin conductele care leag\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia de Ungaria, fie prin cele care vin din Bulgaria.<\/p>\n<h2>Vor \u00eenchide alegerile din 2027 fereastra democra\u021biei \u00een Europa?\u00a0<\/h2>\n<p>Ajunge valul extremist la putere \u00een Europa? 2027 \u00eenchide fereastra democra\u021biei odat\u0103 cu alegerile din Fran\u021ba, Suedia, Italia, Polonia, Spania? \u00cen Rom\u00e2nia, suveranismul ca ideologie \u00eencepe s\u0103 aib\u0103 tot mai mul\u021bi adep\u021bi.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/ro\/nicu%C8%99or-dan\/t-72134911\" rel=\"nofollow\">Nicu\u0219or Dan<\/a>\u00a0se asociaz\u0103 curentului din perspectiv\u0103 occidental\u0103 \u0219i ca simpatizant al pre\u0219edintelui american Donald Trump, dar prin opozi\u021bie cu na\u021bionalistul\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/ro\/c%C4%83lin-georgescu\/t-70897255\" rel=\"nofollow\">C\u0103lin Georgescu<\/a>, un admirator al lui Vladimir Putin, \u00een spatele c\u0103ruia se afl\u0103 AUR. \u00cen jurul lor, societatea e mai divizat\u0103 ca oric\u00e2nd, \u00eencep\u00e2nd cu falia anul\u0103rii alegerilor din 2024, continu\u00e2nd cu sc\u0103derea nivelului de trai din ultimii doi ani \u0219i culmin\u00e2nd cu scumpirile din zona energetic\u0103 declan\u0219ate de r\u0103zboiul din Iran.<\/p>\n<p>Cele trei crize stratificate sunt complicate de absen\u021ba unui guvern stabil, de un pre\u0219edinte care ia decizii lent \u0219i nu mereu \u00een favoarea \u021b\u0103rii, de Justi\u021bia nefunc\u021bional\u0103, de proximitatea r\u0103zboiului, de turbulen\u021bele interne \u00eente\u021bite de for\u021be tot mai greu de descris: Hora\u021biu Potra, bra\u021bul \u00eenarmat al preziden\u021biabilului C\u0103lin Georgescu, ambii acuza\u021bi de tentativ\u0103 de lovitur\u0103 de stat, se afl\u0103 pe punctul de a fi ierta\u021bi de un sistem juridic \u00eentors pe dos.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/ro\/analiz%C4%83-avansul-afd-%C3%AEn-germania-%C8%99i-trendul-aur\/a-79121240\" rel=\"nofollow\"><b>Sabina Fati &#8211; DW<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n<p><\/main><\/p>\n<footer class=\"svelte-x63bga\">\n<div class=\"meta svelte-x63bga\">\n<div class=\"authors svelte-x63bga\"><span class=\"names svelte-x63bga\"><a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/author\/1092\" rel=\"author\" class=\"svelte-x63bga\">Deutsche Welle<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"_hydratable\" data-props=\"%7B%22showLive%22%3Atrue%7D\" data-context=\"%7B%22parentBlockColumnCount%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3A0%2C%22type%22%3A%22store%2Freadable%22%7D%2C%22parentBlockBackgroundColor%22%3A%7B%22type%22%3A%22store%2Freadable%22%7D%7D\" data-component=\"ShareButton\">\n<div class=\"shareButtons svelte-itwbrr\">\n<div class=\"liveSessions metaFont svelte-1maxmbf\"><span class=\"value svelte-1maxmbf\">1<\/span> live <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"tags svelte-1l3vwp1\"><span class=\"tags-label metaFont svelte-1l3vwp1\">Cite\u0219te mai multe despre<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"tags-list svelte-1l3vwp1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/tag\/rusia\" title=\"Ultimele \u0219tiri despre rusia\" class=\"tag-pill svelte-1l3vwp1\">rusia<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/tag\/ucraina\" title=\"Ultimele \u0219tiri despre ucraina\" class=\"tag-pill svelte-1l3vwp1\">ucraina<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/tag\/aur\" title=\"Ultimele \u0219tiri despre aur\" class=\"tag-pill svelte-1l3vwp1\">aur<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/tag\/propaganda%20rusa\" title=\"Ultimele \u0219tiri despre propaganda rusa\" class=\"tag-pill svelte-1l3vwp1\">propaganda rusa<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/tag\/afd\" title=\"Ultimele \u0219tiri despre afd\" class=\"tag-pill svelte-1l3vwp1\">afd<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a class=\"moreFromCategory svelte-x63bga\" href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/blogurile-adevarul\" title=\"Opinii\">Mai multe din <strong class=\"svelte-x63bga\">Opinii<\/strong> \u203a<\/a><\/footer>\n<\/article>\n<p>[analyse_source url=&#8221;https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/blogurile-adevarul\/avansul-afd-in-germania-si-trendul-aur-2554678.html&#8221;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/cdn.adh.reperio.news\/image-4\/4efceeee-964f-487d-8453-b5d951a74190\/index.png?p=f%3Djpeg%26w%3D1200%26h%3D630%26r%3Dcover&#8221;] Home Opinii Avansul AfD \u00een Germania \u0219i trendul AUR Ce leg\u0103tur\u0103 are r\u0103zboiul din Ucraina cu votul \u00een favoarea partidului par\u021bial extremist de dreapta AfD \u00een Germania \u0219i de ce propaganda rus\u0103 \u0219i r\u0103zboiul hibrid al Moscovei \u00eei ajut\u0103 pe populi\u0219tii de dreapta? Ulrich Siegmund, principalul candidat al AfD din Saxonia-Anhalt Foto: [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[89],"tags":[19,226],"class_list":["post-2132662","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-romania","tag-adevarul","tag-crawlmanager"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2132662","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2132662"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2132662\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2132662"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2132662"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2132662"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}