{"id":2116484,"date":"2026-08-28T07:46:27","date_gmt":"2026-08-28T04:46:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2116484"},"modified":"2026-08-28T07:46:27","modified_gmt":"2026-08-28T04:46:27","slug":"one-month-to-montreal-road-worlds-ranking-the-favorites-for-the-rainbow-jersey","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2116484","title":{"rendered":"One Month to Montr\u00e9al Road Worlds: Ranking the Favorites for the Rainbow Jersey"},"content":{"rendered":"
Who will win the Montr\u00e9al UCI road world championships?<\/p>\n
Can Tadej Poga\u010dar three-peat?<\/p>\n
Will Mathieu van der Poel pull a miracle MTB-road double?<\/p>\n
What about Wout, Remco, and even Quinn?<\/p>\n
With 30 days until the men\u2019s road race, it\u2019s still way too early to know. But that doesn\u2019t mean it\u2019s not worth procrastinating over. The race for the rainbow jersey is looming into view.<\/p>\n
An important part of those procrastinations? How each rider is preparing for the big day in Montr\u00e9al.<\/p>\n
Historically, the road to road worlds matters. Riders hoping to take a world title typically tailor their program to be prime for that one day.<\/p>\n
This year, the men couldn\u2019t be more divided in their path toward the September 27 road race.<\/p>\n
Poga\u010dar, Mads Pedersen, and Wout van Aert are defying history by racing the Vuelta a Espa\u00f1a.<\/p>\n
Van der Poel and Tom Pidcock are risking their collarbones on the MTB.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Remco Evenepoel, Paul Seixas, and Isaac del Toro are keeping it trad by turning toward the Canadian GPs for their final tune-ups.<\/p>\n
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Poga\u010dar at the Vuelta, Van der Poel on the MTB: Balancing risk and reward<\/h2>\nMathieu van der Poel is risking road worlds in his quest for that elusive MTB rainbow jersey.<\/span> (Photo: Billy Ceusters\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Finessing form for a single race so late in the calendar is complicated.<\/p>\n
Of course, there\u2019s no one best way to do it, but history has shown the Vuelta a Espa\u00f1a is definitely not the way. In the past 10 years, only Evenepoel in 2022 and Alejandro Valverde in 2018 have raced for red and then won rainbows.<\/p>\n
Even Poga\u010dar \u2013 the type of rider who tears up every blueprint he can find \u2013 is cognizant of his calendar problem.<\/p>\n
\u201cI shouldn\u2019t finish the Vuelta completely destroyed,\u201d he said at the start of the race.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe need to be smart and play the best three-week race,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
The fatigue of a three-week race is significant \u2013 even for the GOAT. He\u2019s currently racing the Vuelta in cruise mode, but 3,300km of in the saddle is never going to be easy.<\/p>\n
And after his descending misfire\u00a0on stage 6, let\u2019s not contemplate Poga\u010dar\u2019s exposure to risk.<\/p>\n
At least he\u2019s not shredding MTB trails like MVDP, we guess.<\/em><\/p>\n
Historically, an August stage race and the mid-September Canadian GPs have proven the best way to peak for the road worlds.<\/p>\n
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Enough load to build fitness, enough time off to recover.<\/p>\n
And this year, the mid-September Canadian classics are the most obvious route to the road worlds.<\/p>\n
The punchy Montr\u00e9al GP is a perfect test piece for the world champs two weeks later. Riders can hunker down in Montr\u00e9al after the Grand Prixs and recon the road worlds route as much as they want.<\/p>\n
But in modern cycling, old rules and common sense can mean nothing. Recovery, fueling, and medical science is making almost anything seem possible.<\/p>\n
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Ranking the favorites for road worlds: A way-too-early assessment<\/h2>\n
With all that in mind, here\u2019s our way-too-early ranking of the road worlds contenders.<\/p>\n
It weighs past form, current fitness, and tweaks that for what they\u2019re doing next.<\/p>\n
For context, the 274km men\u2019s road race course packs around 3,700m ascent. The race will be decided on 12 loops of a hilly circuit that features a shallow 2km climb and a steeper ramp reaching 11 percent.<\/p>\n
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1. Tadej Poga\u010dar, 27 (Slovenia)<\/h3>\nDoes it matter that Poga\u010dar is racing the Vuelta before road worlds? Doubt it. <\/span>(Photo: Gruber Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Last race:<\/strong> Tour de France (1st overall) Current race:<\/strong> Vuelta a Espa\u00f1a (currently 1st overall) Next race:<\/strong> Road worlds 2025 road worlds:<\/strong> 1st<\/p>\n
Racing the Vuelta a Espa\u00f1a just weeks before his rainbow jersey defense? No problem.<\/p>\n
If Poga\u010dar continues to rout the Vuelta at the rate he has been in week 1, he might be able to ease back in week 3 and recover. Plus, Poga\u010dar doesn\u2019t dig so deep into the well as his rivals. When you\u2019ve got a 6.9w\/kg FTP, everything is easy.<\/p>\n
And Poga\u010dar is no stranger to Montr\u00e9al. He\u2019d have won the GP three times already if he didn\u2019t gift the 2025 edition to Brandon McNulty.<\/p>\n
Nobody will be getting any gifts from Poga\u010dar on September 27. He\u2019s poised to follow Peter Sagan with a historic three-peat.<\/p>\n
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2. Remco Evenepoel, 26 (Belgium)<\/h3>\nEvenepoel is chasing a rare TT-road race double in Montr\u00e9al. He\u2019s got the TT on lock, but Poga\u010dar is a big road race problem.<\/span> (Photo: Gruber Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Last races:<\/strong> Clasica San Sebastian (1st), Tour de France (2nd overall) Next races:<\/strong> Canadian GPs, road worlds TT. 2025 road worlds:<\/strong> Road race: 2nd \/ time trial: 1st<\/p>\n
Why 2?<\/strong><\/p>\n
It\u2019s popular to poo-poo Remco Evenepoel, but nobody can question the Belgian Bullet as he heads toward Montr\u00e9al.<\/p>\n
Remco has been on a tear this season.<\/p>\n
And significantly, Montr\u00e9al has been circled red on his calendar since the spring. This is no side-quest.<\/p>\n
The explosive hilly course suits Evenepoel better than the hugely hard 2025 race in Kigali and next year\u2019s race in the Alps. There\u2019s also the prospect of a record fourth straight time trial title on the line.<\/p>\n
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If Evenepoel is going to unite the belts with a rare TT-road race rainbow jersey double, it\u2019s this September. That\u2019s why he shaped his summer around the champs and rolled his \u201crace less-train more\u201d blueprint from the Tour directly into \u201cProject Canada.\u201d<\/p>\n
If the strategy proves as successful in September as it did in July, he could fly out of Montr\u00e9al with two gold medals.<\/p>\n
3. Mathieu van der Poel, 31 (Netherlands)<\/h3>\nThe Montr\u00e9al road worlds course works against Van der Poel, but he\u2019s too good to count out.<\/span> (Photo: Gruber Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Last races:<\/strong> MTB Les Gets (2nd), Tour de France (2 x stages) Next races:<\/strong> MTB world championsips, Canadian GPs [TBD] 2025 road worlds:<\/strong> Did not race<\/p>\n
Why 3?<\/strong><\/p>\n
Mathieu van der Poel is a king of one-day racing. Only he and sometimes Wout can resist Pogacar, and that means a lot.<\/p>\n
The problem for MVDP\u2019s chances in Montr\u00e9al? All them hills. With 3,700m of climbing, the Montr\u00e9al course is pushing what\u2019s possible for the big Dutchman.<\/p>\n
All that Montr\u00e9al vert is more of an obstacle to Van der Poel\u2019s road race chances than the rooty, rocky risks that riddle the Val di Sole course he\u2019ll shred Sunday at MTB worlds.<\/p>\n
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However, all that said \u2013 MVDP earns a spot high in the rankings. It\u2019s impossible to put a rider with his pedigree any lower.<\/p>\n
4. Isaac del Toro, 22 (Mexico)<\/h3>\n
Last races:<\/strong> Lidl Deutschland Tour (1st overall), Hamburg Classic (43rd), Tour de France (3rd overall) Next races:<\/strong> Canadian GPs 2025 road worlds:<\/strong> 7th<\/p>\n
Why 4?<\/strong><\/p>\n
Isaac del Toro is essentially a Diet Poga\u010dar. Torito can do everything his trade teammate can do, but about 90 percent as well. And that instantly vaults him high in the rankings for a worlds road race that couldn\u2019t be designed better for him.<\/p>\n
But \u2013 there\u2019s a but.<\/p>\n
Del Toro hasn\u2019t looked so convincing since he came back from the Tour de France.<\/p>\n
He showed willingness with his attack in the Hamburg Classic, but it didn\u2019t stick. He was pipped to a stage win by Giulio Pellizarri at the Deutschland Tour before he overhauled the Italian for the overall.<\/p>\n
They\u2019re not the results of a future world champion.<\/p>\n
Del Toro doesn\u2019t look in rainbow jersey form right now.<\/p>\n
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If he can it around next month at the Canadian GPs in his final road worlds tune-up, he\u2019s good for 4th.<\/p>\n
If not, Paul Seixas has got his number.<\/p>\n
5. Paul Seixas, 19 (France)<\/h3>\nSeixas has the raw talent, but his grand tour debut at the Tour was a big dive into the unknown. Is he recovered?<\/span> (Photo: Gruber Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Last race:<\/strong> Tour de France (4th overall) Next races:<\/strong> Canadian GPs 2025 road worlds:<\/strong> 13th<\/p>\n
Why 5?<\/strong><\/p>\n
We already know the sky\u2019s the limit for Paul Seixas. That\u2019s why the French national team is putting all its chips behind a rider who will turn 20 only 3 days before the 2026 road worlds.<\/p>\n
That said, it\u2019s tough to split the difference between Seixas and Isaac del Toro in these way-too-early rankings.<\/p>\n
Seixas will bring a blockbuster French team, while Del Toro will have to freelance for Mexico. However, France\u2019s pure climber might have preferred bigger, longer mountains over the punchy hills of Canada.<\/p>\n
The most important question for Seixas is how well he recovered after going deep in his debut grand tour. He\u2019s not raced since he finished 4th in Paris, so we won\u2019t know until the Canadian GPs.<\/p>\n
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That\u2019s perhaps the main reason he\u2019s 5, not 4.<\/p>\n
6. Wout van Aert, 31 (Belgium)<\/h3>\n
Last race:<\/strong> Belgian gravel championships (2nd), Tour of Denmark (1st overall) Current race:<\/strong> Vuelta a Espa\u00f1a Next race:<\/strong> Road worlds 2025 road worlds:<\/strong> Did not race<\/p>\n
Why 6?<\/strong><\/p>\n
Wout van Aert is hyped for road worlds, so you should be hyped for Wout ripping up road worlds.<\/p>\n
The race in Montr\u00e9al has been top of Van Aert\u2019s agenda since January, and he doesn\u2019t see the hilly course as a problem.<\/p>\n
The Flemish favorite was so buoyed after he blazed through the Tour of Denmark he was even tipping his own chances for a rainbow jersey.<\/p>\n
But is the course too tough for the Big Belgian? He, Mathieu, and Mads will be pushed to the limit by a ramp-laden race better suited to the lightweights \u2013 including Van Aert\u2019s own teammate, Remco.<\/p>\n
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Van Aert is showing this week at the Vuelta a Espa\u00f1a he\u2019s got the legs to win a rainbow jersey. \u00a0After beating Poga\u010dar last year in Paris at the Tour de France and again this spring in Roubaix, you know it\u2019s a possibility.<\/p>\n
But WVA will need to have a perfect race in Montr\u00e9al \u2013 and maybe he\u2019ll need Evenepoel to falter \u2013 for it to happen.<\/p>\n
7. Quinn Simmons, 25 (USA)<\/h3>\nUSA\u2019s Quinn Simmons is a super-wildcard for Montr\u00e9al. But on his day, the Durangoan can defy all the odds.<\/span> (Photo: Gruber Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Last races:<\/strong> Leadville 100 MTB (9th), Tour de France (A billion km in the break and \u201cbest teammate\u201d prize) Next races:<\/strong> Philadelphia Cycling Classic, Canadian GPs 2025 road worlds:<\/strong> DNF<\/p>\n
Why 7?<\/strong><\/p>\n
Quinn Simmons doesn\u2019t have the huge palmar\u00e8s of all the other riders in this ranking. But he\u2019s got everything else he needs to snatch a wildcard elite rainbow jersey to match his junior stripes from 2019.<\/p>\n
Simmons will bring raw power and ridiculous self-belief to road worlds. He\u2019ll likely also have a solid U.S. team to support him over the border in Canada.<\/p>\n
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\u201cCaptain America\u201d blazed a trail through the Tour de France. He was the best breakaway rider across all terrain. And he\u2019s got history with Montr\u00e9al \u2013 only the Tadej Poga\u010dar-Brandon McNulty double punch could beat him last year in the Grand Prix.<\/p>\n
The most important thing for Simmons? He\u2019s not scared of anyone. If the bigs make a move in Montr\u00e9al, you know he\u2019ll follow.<\/p>\n
Most of the time, Simmons\u2019 overconfidence bites him. He\u2019s flown too close to the sun many times before.<\/p>\n
But one day, his ballsy \u201cRicky Bobby\u201d personality might serve him well.<\/p>\n
That day could\u00a0<\/em>be September 27.<\/p>\n
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8. Mads Pedersen, 30 (Denmark)<\/h3>\n
Last race:<\/strong> Tour de France (stage win, green jersey) Current race:<\/strong> Vuelta a Espa\u00f1a Next races:<\/strong> Road worlds 2025 road worlds:<\/strong> Did not race<\/p>\n
Why 8?<\/strong><\/p>\n
You can file Mads Pedersen under the same category as MVDP and WVA.<\/p>\n
Montr\u00e9al is pushing the limits of what\u2019s possible for the Great Dane, no matter how dominant he was at the Tour de France.<\/p>\n
Keep tabs on how Pedersen performs for the rest of this Vuelta a Espa\u00f1a.<\/p>\n
He admitted this week he\u2019s a bit cooked after his romp to the maillot vert <\/em>at the Tour. He\u2019s already resigned himself to playing domestique and isn\u2019t dominating the race like he normally would.<\/p>\n
The hilly course stacks the odds against Pedersen for the 2026 road worlds. Fatigue stacks them higher.<\/p>\n
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Pedersen will need to be more than 100 percent to hit the podium in Montr\u00e9al. He scrapes into the top-8 based on his palmar\u00e8s alone.<\/p>\n
Honorable mentions<\/h3>\n
Tom Pidcock, Richard Carapaz, Mattias Skjelmose, Ben Healy, Juan Ayuso, Michael Matthews, Michael Woods (yes, he\u2019s back on the road<\/em>).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
[analyse_image type=”featured” src=”https:\/\/velo-cdn.outsideonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Vuelta-Espana-2026-Stage-4-9647.jpg”] Jim Cotton Updated August 28, 2026 07:07AM Who will win the Montr\u00e9al UCI road world championships? Can Tadej Poga\u010dar three-peat? Will Mathieu van der Poel pull a miracle MTB-road double? What about Wout, Remco, and even Quinn? With 30 days until the men\u2019s road race, it\u2019s still way too early to know. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[226,71],"class_list":["post-2116484","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","tag-crawlmanager","tag-velo-outsideonline-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2116484","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2116484"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2116484\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2116484"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2116484"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2116484"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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