{"id":2116166,"date":"2026-08-28T10:55:58","date_gmt":"2026-08-28T07:55:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2116166"},"modified":"2026-08-28T10:55:58","modified_gmt":"2026-08-28T07:55:58","slug":"fitch-to-unveil-france-rating-status-quo-seems-the-most-likely-scenario","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2116166","title":{"rendered":"Fitch to unveil France rating: &#8216;Status quo seems the most likely scenario&#8217;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/89\/23\/06\/1200x675_cmsv2_3498244b-2be3-50fb-9b9b-058e2e00013e-9892306.jpg&#8221;]<\/p>\n<article id=\"abe-2921268-pos1-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1\" data-nid=\"2921268\" data-cid=\"9892697\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2921268-label-pos1-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/89\/26\/97\/189x106_cmsv2_cf2eb374-ffef-54b7-8df0-5f6e261727be-9892697.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Europe&apos;s trains offer discounted fares and family areas. \" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Moments<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Family train travel in Europe: The discounts and perks to know\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2921020-pos2-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1\" data-nid=\"2921020\" data-cid=\"9892488\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2921020-label-pos2-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/89\/13\/66\/189x106_cmsv2_086bc1d8-8223-53d1-af22-3f4daf250cf9-9891366.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Druze and supporters demonstrate outside the US embassy in Jerusalem on 28 July 2025, amid Suwayda clashes between Syrian forces and Druze militants.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Syria<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Syria&#8217;s top Druze leader calls community &#8216;integral part of Israel&#8217;\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2921198-pos3-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1\" data-nid=\"2921198\" data-cid=\"9892287\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2921198-label-pos3-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/89\/22\/87\/189x106_cmsv2_10bacba0-75a7-510e-9f81-1cb5979a67e3-9892287.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"A firefighter walks next to a destroyed warehouse after Russian drone attacks on Kyiv. 27 August, 2026.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Europe News<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Russian drone strikes hit Ukraine as warehouses burn\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2921234-pos4-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1\" data-nid=\"2921234\" data-cid=\"9892471\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2921234-label-pos4-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/89\/24\/71\/189x106_cmsv2_e932d223-9c55-5bc9-bbb0-4ed60acd984d-9892471.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Barton\u2026 Jack Barton: Could this unknown British actor be our new James Bond?  \" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Cinema<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Barton\u2026 Jack Barton: Could this unknown British actor be the next James Bond?\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2921268-pos1-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2\" data-nid=\"2921268\" data-cid=\"9892697\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2921268-label-pos1-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/89\/26\/97\/189x106_cmsv2_cf2eb374-ffef-54b7-8df0-5f6e261727be-9892697.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Europe&apos;s trains offer discounted fares and family areas. \" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Moments<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Family train travel in Europe: The discounts and perks to know\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2921020-pos2-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2\" data-nid=\"2921020\" data-cid=\"9892488\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2921020-label-pos2-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/89\/13\/66\/189x106_cmsv2_086bc1d8-8223-53d1-af22-3f4daf250cf9-9891366.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Druze and supporters demonstrate outside the US embassy in Jerusalem on 28 July 2025, amid Suwayda clashes between Syrian forces and Druze militants.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Syria<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Syria&#8217;s top Druze leader calls community &#8216;integral part of Israel&#8217;\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2921198-pos3-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2\" data-nid=\"2921198\" data-cid=\"9892287\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2921198-label-pos3-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/89\/22\/87\/189x106_cmsv2_10bacba0-75a7-510e-9f81-1cb5979a67e3-9892287.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"A firefighter walks next to a destroyed warehouse after Russian drone attacks on Kyiv. 27 August, 2026.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Europe News<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Russian drone strikes hit Ukraine as warehouses burn\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2921234-pos4-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2\" data-nid=\"2921234\" data-cid=\"9892471\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2921234-label-pos4-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/89\/24\/71\/189x106_cmsv2_e932d223-9c55-5bc9-bbb0-4ed60acd984d-9892471.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Barton\u2026 Jack Barton: Could this unknown British actor be our new James Bond?  \" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Cinema<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Barton\u2026 Jack Barton: Could this unknown British actor be the next James Bond?\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"helper-site-row o-article-newsy\">\n<div class=\"helper-site-container o-article-newsy__container\">\n<div class=\"o-article-newsy__main\">\n<header class=\"h-grid o-article-newsy__main__header\">\n<nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumbs\" class=\"c-article-breadcrumbs\">\n<div id=\"adb-article-breadcrumb\" class=\"c-article-breadcrumbs__list\">\n<p>                          Business<\/p>\n<p>                          Business<\/p><\/div>\n<\/nav>\n<h1 class=\"c-article-redesign-title\">\n                            Fitch to unveil France rating: &#8216;Status quo seems the most likely scenario&#8217;<\/h1>\n<div class=\"c-article-image-video u-position-relative \">\n<div class=\"js-superdiv u-aspect-ratio-16x9 u-position-relative \" data-controller=\"video-player\" data-sponsored=\"Partner content\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"js-poster-img c-article-media__img\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/89\/23\/06\/1536x864_cmsv2_3498244b-2be3-50fb-9b9b-058e2e00013e-9892306.jpg\" width=\"1536\" height=\"864\" loading=\"eager\" alt=\"Fitch is due to deliver its verdict this evening.\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-caption u-position-absolute\"><i id=\"article-caption-content\" class=\"c-article-caption__content\"><span class=\"c-article-caption__text\"><br \/>\n              Fitch&#8217;s verdict is expected this evening.<br \/>\n                    <span class=\"u-color-white\">&#8211;\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"c-article-caption__copyright\">Copyright\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"c-article-caption__credit\">AP Photo\/Henny Ray Abrams, File; Ludovic Marin\/Pool via AP<\/span><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-image-copyright c-article-image-copyright--novideo\">\n      Copyright\u00a0AP Photo\/Henny Ray Abrams, File; Ludovic Marin\/Pool via AP\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"h-grid o-article-newsy__main__body u-article-content\">\n<div class=\"o-article-newsy__contributors-publication-date\">\n<div class=\"c-article-contributors\">\n  By&amp;nbspAlexander Kazakevich\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-publication-date\" data-timestamp=\"1787914558\">\n         Published on<br \/>\n            <time datetime=\"2026-08-28 12:55:58 +02:00\">28\/08\/2026 &#8211; 12:55 GMT+2<\/time><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-share-comment u-align-items-center u-display-flex\"><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__links u-align-items-center u-display-flex u-justify-content-center js-c-article-share-comment-share\"><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__label\">Share<\/span><\/span><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__label\">Comments<\/span><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__label 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loading=\"lazy\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"c-article-summary\">\n        The agency cut France&#8217;s rating in Sept 2025 and upheld it in March 2026. Despite a weaker outlook, Fitch may delay tougher action until 2027, experts told Euronews.<br \/>\n    <\/h2>\n<div class=\"c-article-content c-article-content--business js-article-content\">\n<p>For the Lecornu government, simply staying afloat would already come as a relief. This Friday, one month before the 2027 finance bill is submitted to the National Assembly, Fitch will deliver its verdict on France&#8217;s sovereign rating.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"c-ad u-show-for-mobile-only\">\n<div class=\"c-ad__placeholder\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"c-ad__placeholder__logo\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/logos\/logo-euronews-stacked-outlined-72x72-grey-9.svg\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" alt loading=\"lazy\"><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-ad u-show-for-desktop\">\n<div class=\"c-ad__placeholder\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"c-ad__placeholder__logo\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/logos\/logo-euronews-stacked-outlined-72x72-grey-9.svg\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" alt loading=\"lazy\"><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>For now, the agency assigns an A+ rating to the EU&#8217;s second-largest economy, with a stable outlook. The country lost its double A in September 2025, when Fitch penalised political instability in a post-dissolution context marked by the short-lived Barnier and Bayrou governments, which spent 99 and 270 days in power respectively. This assessment was confirmed in March 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Speaking to Euronews, Hadrien Camatte, senior economist for France, Belgium and the eurozone at Natixis CIB, is betting on the status quo, <em>&#8220;the most likely scenario&#8221;<\/em>, even though <em>&#8220;a move to a negative outlook cannot be ruled out&#8221;<\/em>.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>&#8220;This is the first concrete impact of the dreadful summer we&#8217;ve just been through&#8221;<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Since March, explain Hadrien Camatte and his colleague, rates strategist Th\u00e9ophile Legrand, the macroeconomic environment has somewhat deteriorated. The two experts point in particular to a downward revision of growth forecasts for 2026, <em>&#8220;in the wake of the war in the Middle East&#8221;<\/em>. While in March Fitch was projecting 1% growth in 2026, the government at the same time lowered its forecast to 0.7%, while Natixis CIB was anticipating growth of 0.6%.<\/p>\n<p>On Friday morning, <strong>the latest figures were released <em>(source in French)<\/em><\/strong>: French GDP was flat in the second quarter, at 0.0%, instead of the slight 0.2% rebound initially announced by Insee. A key factor is <em>&#8220;an even sharper deterioration in agricultural output compared with the information available at the end of July&#8221;<\/em>, Insee said.<\/p>\n<p><em>&#8220;This is the first concrete impact of the dreadful summer we&#8217;ve just been through&#8221;<\/em>, economy minister Roland Lescure said this morning at the Summer Universities for Tomorrow&#8217;s Economy, referring to repeated heatwaves and drought.<\/p>\n<p>As for the deficit, Fitch is forecasting 4.9% of GDP, a level close to the government&#8217;s 5% target. Natixis CIB expects 5.1%. These levels <em>&#8220;leave no fiscal room for manoeuvre to reduce it over the coming years&#8221;<\/em>, Hadrien Camatte and Th\u00e9ophile Legrand argue.<\/p>\n<p>Public debt, for its part, is expected to continue rising until at least 2030, against a backdrop of a sharp increase in interest costs, the two experts stress.<\/p>\n<p><em>&#8220;This is a crucial issue for the ratings agency&#8221;<\/em>, which <strong>warned <em>(source in French)<\/em><\/strong> in March that one of the main factors likely to influence the rating would be <em>&#8220;a lasting increase in the public debt-to-GDP ratio in the medium term, due to an inability to implement fiscal consolidation measures or to a persistent rise in financing costs&#8221;<\/em>, they tell Euronews.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>A clouded budgetary and political outlook<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><em>&#8220;The next budget cycle looks particularly challenging for cutting the deficit, while the looming presidential election is likely to heighten political volatility&#8221;<\/em>, the Natixis CIB analysts say.<\/p>\n<p>They nevertheless believe Fitch may show some patience: <em>&#8220;the budget cycle has not yet started and the main risks could materialise more fully in 2027&#8221;<\/em>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"c-widget-related\" data-stories-id data-event=\"widget_related\">\n<div class=\"c-widget-related__title\"><b class=\"c-widget-related__title__text\" lang=\"en\">Related<\/b><\/div>\n<ul class=\"c-widget-related__list\">\n<li class=\"c-widget-related__item\">Who next? Economy dominates first debate between French presidential candidates<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p>Prime Minister S\u00e9bastien Lecornu plans to present his 2027 budget on 30 September, with parliamentary debates due to start in October.<\/p>\n<p>Jean-Luc M\u00e9lenchon has already warned that his movement, France Unbowed (LFI), will move to censure the new budget.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"adb-c-mention-original-translation\" class=\"c-mention-original-translation c-mention-original-translation--business\">\n<aside>This text was translated with the help of artificial intelligence and originally published in\u00a0French    <\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<p>                          Go to accessibility shortcuts<\/p>\n<div class=\"c-article-share-comment u-align-items-center u-display-flex\"><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__links u-align-items-center u-display-flex u-justify-content-center js-c-article-share-comment-share\"><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__label\">Share<\/span><\/span><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__label\">Comments<\/span><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__label c-article-share-comment__label--always\">Add Euronews on Google<\/span><\/div>\n<div id=\"adb-article-you-might-also-like\" class=\"perf-cv-auto c-article-you-might-also-like\">\n<h2 class=\"c-article-you-might-also-like__title\">\n        Read more<br \/>\n      <\/h2>\n<div class=\"c-article-you-might-also-like__container\">\n<article id=\"abe-2921211-pos0-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1 the-media-object--has-video\" data-nid=\"2921211\" data-cid=\"9892325\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2921211-label-pos0-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/89\/23\/25\/480x270_cmsv2_e0e5f917-11de-5295-97a4-7ab64a01ef76-9892325.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"File - 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data-cid=\"9892325\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2921211-label-pos3-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/89\/23\/25\/320x180_cmsv2_e0e5f917-11de-5295-97a4-7ab64a01ef76-9892325.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"File - Aerial photo of the area of the former Hirtenberg concentration camp near Hirtenberg\/Leobersdorf in Lower Austria.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Austria under fire over business park on ex-Nazi camp site<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2921118-pos4-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2921118\" data-cid=\"9891977\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2921118-label-pos4-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/89\/19\/77\/320x180_cmsv2_f0576093-ac74-5861-a684-ab91a48afaa8-9891977.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"French presidential candidates took part in a debate organised by the MEDEF on 27 August\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    French presidential candidates clash in first debate of campaign<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2921098-pos5-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2921098\" data-cid=\"9891879\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2921098-label-pos5-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/89\/18\/01\/320x180_cmsv2_e7e8473e-8b39-5c52-bef3-3ef827bc9431-9891801.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Parcels being sorted\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Chinese imports plunge 30% to 40% after EU tax on small parcels<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2920852-pos6-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2920852\" data-cid=\"9890437\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2920852-label-pos6-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/89\/04\/37\/320x180_cmsv2_259cc852-16d1-5a1b-ab1f-a735f6f187b6-9890437.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"FILE - CEO Jensen Huang talks during the keynote address of Nvidia GTC Tuesday, March 18, 2025, in San Jose, Calif. (AP Photo\/Nic Coury)\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Nvidia bets on another blockbuster year, guiding for 70% growth into 2028<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2920670-pos1-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--has-related the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2920670\" data-cid=\"9889382\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    EU GDP shares: Which countries are rising and which are falling?<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2921098-pos2-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--has-related the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2921098\" data-cid=\"9891879\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Chinese imports plunge 30% to 40% after EU tax on small parcels<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2920930-pos3-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--has-related the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2920930\" data-cid=\"9890841\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Syria&#8217;s president pays for coffee with Visa card as sanctions era ends<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2921048-pos4-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2921048\" data-cid=\"9891532\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    European education spending: Does more money mean better grades?<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2920957-pos5-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--has-related the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2920957\" data-cid=\"9891053\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Nordics weigh merging their stock exchanges into one regional market<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<div class=\"articleBody\" data-key=\"articleBody\">For the Lecornu government, simply staying afloat would already come as a relief. This Friday, one month before the 2027 finance bill is submitted to the National Assembly, Fitch will deliver its verdict on France&#8217;s sovereign rating.For now, the agency assigns an A+ rating to the EU&#8217;s second-largest economy, with a stable outlook. The country lost its double A in September 2025, when Fitch penalised political instability in a post-dissolution context marked by the short-lived Barnier and Bayrou governments, which spent 99 and 270 days in power respectively. This assessment was confirmed in March 2026.Speaking to Euronews, Hadrien Camatte, senior economist for France, Belgium and the eurozone at Natixis CIB, is betting on the status quo, &#8220;the most likely scenario&#8221;, even though &#8220;a move to a negative outlook cannot be ruled out&#8221;.&#8221;This is the first concrete impact of the dreadful summer we&#8217;ve just been through&#8221;Since March, explain Hadrien Camatte and his colleague, rates strategist Th\u00e9ophile Legrand, the macroeconomic environment has somewhat deteriorated. The two experts point in particular to a downward revision of growth forecasts for 2026, &#8220;in the wake of the war in the Middle East&#8221;. While in March Fitch was projecting 1% growth in 2026, the government at the same time lowered its forecast to 0.7%, while Natixis CIB was anticipating growth of 0.6%.On Friday morning, the latest figures were released (source in French): French GDP was flat in the second quarter, at 0.0%, instead of the slight 0.2% rebound initially announced by Insee. A key factor is &#8220;an even sharper deterioration in agricultural output compared with the information available at the end of July&#8221;, Insee said.&#8221;This is the first concrete impact of the dreadful summer we&#8217;ve just been through&#8221;, economy minister Roland Lescure said this morning at the Summer Universities for Tomorrow&#8217;s Economy, referring to repeated heatwaves and drought.As for the deficit, Fitch is forecasting 4.9% of GDP, a level close to the government&#8217;s 5% target. Natixis CIB expects 5.1%. These levels &#8220;leave no fiscal room for manoeuvre to reduce it over the coming years&#8221;, Hadrien Camatte and Th\u00e9ophile Legrand argue.Public debt, for its part, is expected to continue rising until at least 2030, against a backdrop of a sharp increase in interest costs, the two experts stress.&#8221;This is a crucial issue for the ratings agency&#8221;, which warned (source in French) in March that one of the main factors likely to influence the rating would be &#8220;a lasting increase in the public debt-to-GDP ratio in the medium term, due to an inability to implement fiscal consolidation measures or to a persistent rise in financing costs&#8221;, they tell Euronews.A clouded budgetary and political outlook&#8221;The next budget cycle looks particularly challenging for cutting the deficit, while the looming presidential election is likely to heighten political volatility&#8221;, the Natixis CIB analysts say.They nevertheless believe Fitch may show some patience: &#8220;the budget cycle has not yet started and the main risks could materialise more fully in 2027&#8221;.Prime Minister S\u00e9bastien Lecornu plans to present his 2027 budget on 30 September, with parliamentary debates due to start in October.Jean-Luc M\u00e9lenchon has already warned that his movement, France Unbowed (LFI), will move to censure the new budget.<\/div>\n<p>[analyse_source url=&#8221;https:\/\/www.euronews.com\/business\/2026\/08\/28\/fitch-to-unveil-france-rating-status-quo-seems-the-most-likely-scenario&#8221;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/89\/23\/06\/1200x675_cmsv2_3498244b-2be3-50fb-9b9b-058e2e00013e-9892306.jpg&#8221;] Moments Family train travel in Europe: The discounts and perks to know Syria Syria&#8217;s top Druze leader calls community &#8216;integral part of Israel&#8217; Europe News Russian drone strikes hit Ukraine as warehouses burn Cinema Barton\u2026 Jack Barton: Could this unknown British actor be the next James Bond? Moments Family train travel in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[90],"tags":[226,36],"class_list":["post-2116166","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-international","tag-crawlmanager","tag-euronews-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2116166","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2116166"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2116166\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2116166"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2116166"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2116166"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}