{"id":2112590,"date":"2026-08-26T10:47:20","date_gmt":"2026-08-26T07:47:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2112590"},"modified":"2026-08-26T10:47:20","modified_gmt":"2026-08-26T07:47:20","slug":"australia-is-heading-for-its-wettest-el-nino-ever","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2112590","title":{"rendered":"Australia is Heading for Its Wettest El Ni\u00f1o Ever"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<figure id=\"attachment_422138\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-422138\" style=\"width: 1920px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-422138 lazyload\" src=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAoAAAAGrAQMAAABqgLQIAAAABlBMVEUAAAD\/\/\/+l2Z\/dAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAAAlwSFlzAAAOxAAADsQBlSsOGwAAADhJREFUeNrtwTEBAAAAwqD1T+1tB6AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAADgDIcbAAEnbF1FAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\" alt=\"Rainforest in Great Otway National Park. Rainforests cover about 3.6 million hectares on the continent (8.9 million acres). Photo: Rough Guides\" width=\"640\" height=\"427\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/great-otway-national-park-waterfall-australia-rainforest_644bc4623e.jpeg?resize=640%2C427&amp;ssl=1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/great-otway-national-park-waterfall-australia-rainforest_644bc4623e.jpeg?w=1920&amp;ssl=1 1920w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/great-otway-national-park-waterfall-australia-rainforest_644bc4623e.jpeg?resize=300%2C200&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/great-otway-national-park-waterfall-australia-rainforest_644bc4623e.jpeg?resize=1200%2C800&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/great-otway-national-park-waterfall-australia-rainforest_644bc4623e.jpeg?resize=768%2C512&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/great-otway-national-park-waterfall-australia-rainforest_644bc4623e.jpeg?resize=1536%2C1024&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/great-otway-national-park-waterfall-australia-rainforest_644bc4623e.jpeg?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w\" data-max-width=\"640\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-eio-rwidth=\"640\" data-eio-rheight=\"427\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-422138\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/great-otway-national-park-waterfall-australia-rainforest_644bc4623e.jpeg?resize=640%2C427&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"Rainforest in Great Otway National Park. Rainforests cover about 3.6 million hectares on the continent (8.9 million acres). Photo: Rough Guides\" width=\"640\" height=\"427\" data-eio=\"l\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-422138\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Rainforest in Great Otway National Park. Rainforests cover about 3.6 million hectares on the continent (8.9 million acres). Photo: Rough Guides<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"code-block code-block-1\" style=\"margin: 8px auto;text-align: center;display: block;clear: both\">\n<!-- GAM 71161633\/SNWBR_snowbrains\/article_hrec_1 --><\/p>\n<div data-fuse=\"article_hrec_1\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><b>After months of dire drought forecasts, Australia has bucked the meteorological community\u2019s consensus on how its weather should behave<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. The continent is well on its way to the wettest El Ni\u00f1o year ever, somewhat improving the outlook heading into bushfire season. However, persistent elevated temperatures are likely to continue through summer.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Australia began the year with widespread rain, while a wet La Ni\u00f1a phase was still influencing the Pacific.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> More surprising has been the persistence of rain, even as El Ni\u00f1o rapidly developed during austral autumn . By winter, El Ni\u00f1o had intensified dramatically, yet the rain continued. As reported by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2026-08-22\/australia-weather-on-track-for-wettest-el-nino-on-record\/107064594\">Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC)<\/a>, national average rainfall for the year has already exceeded 400 millimeters, making 2026 the wettest El Ni\u00f1o year on record so far.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Related: <em><a href=\"https:\/\/snowbrains.com\/el-nino-2026-27-ski-forecast\/\">El Ni\u00f1o 2026-27 Ski Forecast August Update<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><strong>The Primary Climatic Factors<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><b>El Ni\u00f1o is generally associated with drought in Australia.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> The trend is well established in the data, with a large sample of historical El Ni\u00f1o events producing below-average rainfall. For example, during 16 previous moderate-to-strong El Ni\u00f1o events, Australia\u2019s winter rainfall averaged 32 percent below neutral years. Forecasts this year were especially dire because of the strong El Ni\u00f1o forecast \u2013 which has come to fruition \u2013 in combination with another climate indicator called the Indian Ocean Dipole.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Interestingly, El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s strongest impacts on Australian precipitation are typically during winter.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Effects wane as we head into spring. By the time summer arrives, El Ni\u00f1o is a non-factor in continent-wide precipitation, statistically speaking. As the ABC reports, the nationwide rainfall deficit drops to about 20% in spring and just 2% in summer.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"code-block code-block-15\" style=\"margin: 8px auto;text-align: center;display: block;clear: both\">\n<div class=\"sb-trending-widget\">\n<div class=\"sb-trending-header\">\n            <span class=\"sb-trending-icon\">\ud83d\udd25<\/span><br \/>\n            <span class=\"sb-trending-label\">Trending on SnowBrains<\/span>\n        <\/div>\n<ol class=\"sb-trending-list\">\n<li class=\"sb-trending-item\">\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/snowbrains.com\/snow-pass-partner-resorts-2026-27\/?utm_source=trending_widget&amp;utm_medium=internal&amp;utm_campaign=trending\" class=\"sb-trending-link\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"sb-trending-thumb\">\n                        <img decoding=\"async\" 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src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-25-at-1.13.39-PM.jpeg?resize=200%2C125&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"American Ski Guide from Utah Dies in Fall on Osorno Volcano, Chile\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"80\" height=\"64\" data-eio=\"l\">\n                    <\/div>\n<div class=\"sb-trending-text\">\n                        <span class=\"sb-trending-num\">3<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"sb-trending-right\">\n                            <span class=\"sb-trending-title\">American Ski Guide from Utah Dies in Fall on Osorno Volcano, Chile<span class=\"sb-trending-arrow\"> \u2192<\/span><\/span>\n                        <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n<li class=\"sb-trending-item\">\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/snowbrains.com\/australia-is-heading-for-its-wettest-el-nino-ever\/?utm_source=trending_widget&amp;utm_medium=internal&amp;utm_campaign=trending\" class=\"sb-trending-link\"><\/p>\n<div 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loading=\"lazy\" width=\"80\" height=\"64\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/ski-cooper-pow.jpg?resize=200%2C125&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"lazyload\" data-eio-rwidth=\"80\" data-eio-rheight=\"64\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/ski-cooper-pow.jpg?resize=200%2C125&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"The Freedom Pass: A Cheaper Alternative to Epic, Ikon\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"80\" height=\"64\" data-eio=\"l\">\n                    <\/div>\n<div class=\"sb-trending-text\">\n                        <span class=\"sb-trending-num\">5<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"sb-trending-right\">\n                            <span class=\"sb-trending-title\">The Freedom Pass: A Cheaper Alternative to Epic, Ikon<span class=\"sb-trending-arrow\"> \u2192<\/span><\/span>\n                        <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n<\/ol><\/div>\n<p>    .sb-trending-widget {<br \/>\n        background: #f8f8f8;<br \/>\n        border-top: 2px solid #e0e0e0;<br \/>\n        border-left: 4px solid #ea2e49;<br \/>\n        border-radius: 0 4px 4px 0;<br \/>\n        margin: 28px 0;<br \/>\n        padding: 14px 14px 6px;<br \/>\n        width: 100%;<br \/>\n        box-sizing: border-box;<br \/>\n    }<br \/>\n    .sb-trending-header {<br \/>\n        display: flex;<br \/>\n        align-items: center;<br \/>\n        gap: 8px;<br \/>\n        margin-bottom: 12px;<br \/>\n        padding-bottom: 10px;<br \/>\n        border-bottom: 1px solid #e0e0e0;<br \/>\n    }<br \/>\n    .sb-trending-icon {<br \/>\n        font-size: 18px;<br \/>\n        line-height: 1;<br \/>\n        flex-shrink: 0;<br \/>\n    }<br \/>\n    .sb-trending-label {<br \/>\n        font-size: 15px;<br \/>\n        font-weight: 700;<br \/>\n        color: #1a1a1a;<br \/>\n        line-height: 1.3;<br \/>\n        text-transform: uppercase;<br \/>\n        letter-spacing: 0.04em;<br \/>\n    }<br \/>\n    .sb-trending-list {<br \/>\n        list-style: none;<br \/>\n        margin: 0;<br \/>\n        padding: 0;<br \/>\n    }<br \/>\n    .sb-trending-item {<br \/>\n        border-bottom: 1px solid #e8e8e8;<br \/>\n        padding: 9px 0;<br \/>\n        border-radius: 3px;<br \/>\n        transition: background 0.1s;<br \/>\n    }<br \/>\n    .sb-trending-item:last-child {<br \/>\n        border-bottom: none;<br \/>\n        padding-bottom: 4px;<br \/>\n    }<br \/>\n    .sb-trending-item:active {<br \/>\n        background: #fef0f2;<br \/>\n    }<br \/>\n    .sb-trending-link {<br \/>\n        display: flex;<br \/>\n        align-items: center;<br \/>\n        gap: 10px;<br \/>\n        text-decoration: none;<br \/>\n        color: inherit;<br \/>\n        padding: 2px 4px;<br \/>\n    }<br \/>\n    .sb-trending-thumb {<br \/>\n        flex-shrink: 0;<br \/>\n    }<br \/>\n    .sb-trending-thumb img {<br \/>\n        display: block;<br \/>\n        width: 80px;<br \/>\n        height: 64px;<br \/>\n        object-fit: cover;<br \/>\n        border-radius: 3px;<br \/>\n    }<br \/>\n    .sb-trending-text {<br \/>\n        display: flex;<br \/>\n        align-items: center;<br \/>\n        gap: 8px;<br \/>\n        flex: 1;<br \/>\n        min-width: 0;<br \/>\n    }<br \/>\n    .sb-trending-num {<br \/>\n        font-size: 22px;<br \/>\n        font-weight: 700;<br \/>\n        color: #ea2e49;<br \/>\n        line-height: 1;<br \/>\n        min-width: 22px;<br \/>\n        flex-shrink: 0;<br \/>\n    }<br \/>\n    .sb-trending-right {<br \/>\n        flex: 1;<br \/>\n        min-width: 0;<br \/>\n    }<br \/>\n    .sb-trending-title {<br \/>\n        font-size: 14px;<br \/>\n        font-weight: 500;<br \/>\n        color: #1a1a1a;<br \/>\n        line-height: 1.45;<br \/>\n        text-align: left;<br \/>\n        transition: color 0.15s;<br \/>\n        display: inline;<br \/>\n    }<br \/>\n    .sb-trending-arrow {<br \/>\n        font-size: 14px;<br \/>\n        color: #ea2e49;<br \/>\n        font-weight: 700;<br \/>\n        white-space: nowrap;<br \/>\n        display: inline;<br \/>\n    }<br \/>\n    .sb-trending-link:hover .sb-trending-title {<br \/>\n        color: #ea2e49;<br \/>\n    }<br \/>\n    .sb-trending-link:active .sb-trending-title {<br \/>\n        color: #ea2e49;<br \/>\n    }<\/p><\/div>\n<h3>The Indian Ocean Dipole<\/h3>\n<p><b>A few months ago, forecasts expected a Positive IOD to develop.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> The positive phase means that warmer-than-average water pools in the western Indian Ocean, with cooler water in the eastern portion. <\/span>During a Positive IOD, warmer-than-average water develops in the western Indian Ocean while cooler-than-average water develops near Indonesia. This shifts atmospheric convection westward and typically suppresses moisture and rainfall across Australia, particularly during winter and spring.<\/p>\n<p><b>However, while a powerful El Ni\u00f1o has materialized, a Positive IOD phase has not.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Instead, IOD has straddled the neutral phase thus far through Southern Hemisphere winter. While sea-surface temperature gradients between east and west (SSTs) are slowly creeping toward a Positive IOD, it\u2019s unclear when it may actually develop.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Separately from the IOD, background warmth in the Indian Ocean may be having an effect.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> SSTs across the central Indian Ocean are currently around 1\u20132\u00b0C above average and are expected to remain warm into spring. This reflects the astonishing warmth across the world\u2019s oceans. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) notes that \u201cglobal SSTs have been well above average, with July 2026 global SSTs 0.57 \u00b0C above the 1991\u20132020 average, making it the warmest July on record (since 1900).\u201d So even if a Positive IOD develops, it\u2019s possible that a higher baseline ocean temperature could still drive moisture into Australia.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_422327\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-422327\" style=\"width: 1920px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-422327 lazyload\" src=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAoAAAAFnAQMAAAAMqmrHAAAABlBMVEUAAAD\/\/\/+l2Z\/dAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAAAlwSFlzAAAOxAAADsQBlSsOGwAAADNJREFUeNrtwQENAAAAwqD3T20ON6AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALg1xlwAB\/HxwBAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\" alt=\"Smoke from the 2019-20 Australian bushfires, also known as the &quot;Black Summer&quot; fires, as seen from the International Space Station. Photo: Wikipedia\" width=\"640\" height=\"359\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Australian_bushfires_as_viewed_from_the_ISS.jpg?resize=640%2C359&amp;ssl=1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Australian_bushfires_as_viewed_from_the_ISS.jpg?w=1920&amp;ssl=1 1920w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Australian_bushfires_as_viewed_from_the_ISS.jpg?resize=300%2C168&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Australian_bushfires_as_viewed_from_the_ISS.jpg?resize=1200%2C674&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Australian_bushfires_as_viewed_from_the_ISS.jpg?resize=768%2C431&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Australian_bushfires_as_viewed_from_the_ISS.jpg?resize=1536%2C862&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Australian_bushfires_as_viewed_from_the_ISS.jpg?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w\" data-max-width=\"640\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-eio-rwidth=\"640\" data-eio-rheight=\"359\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-422327\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Australian_bushfires_as_viewed_from_the_ISS.jpg?resize=640%2C359&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"Smoke from the 2019-20 Australian bushfires, also known as the &quot;Black Summer&quot; fires, as seen from the International Space Station. Photo: Wikipedia\" width=\"640\" height=\"359\" data-eio=\"l\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-422327\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Smoke from the 2019-20 Australian bushfires, also known as the \u201cBlack Summer\u201d fires, as seen from the International Space Station. Photo: Wikipedia<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2><strong>What Can We Expect Heading Forward?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><b>The BOM\u2019s latest models are showing a strong signal for a wet spring across Western Australia and the Northern Territory, consistent with expectations of tropical moisture pushing in from the Indian Ocean.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Meanwhile, some parts of Victoria and Tasmania have an approximately 80 percent chance of below-median rainfall. Fortunately, the region is not drought-stressed going into spring.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The even bigger story right now is the temperature outlook.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> El Ni\u00f1o typically favors warmer-than-average conditions across the southern two-thirds of Australia, and this year\u2019s background conditions are nearly certain to amplify that effect. Some modeling indicates that southern Australia could experience mean temperatures approaching 3\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels during the coming months. To put that in perspective, it\u2019s nearly a full 1\u00b0C above the previous record of 2.08\u00b0C in 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>For people, a warm spring is slightly more palatable than an infernal summer, but neither one bodes well for fire weather.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Heavy rain can temporarily improve soil moisture and vegetation conditions, but prolonged heat and dry weather can rapidly dry out fine fuels, particularly grasses, leaves and other surface vegetation.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_422333\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-422333\" style=\"width: 1085px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-422333 lazyload\" src=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAoAAAAGsAQMAAAB3hYSwAAAABlBMVEUAAAD\/\/\/+l2Z\/dAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAAAlwSFlzAAAOxAAADsQBlSsOGwAAADhJREFUeNrtwTEBAAAAwqD1T20KP6AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAADga4dsAAF0zHvyAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\" alt=\"The austral spring precipitation forecast (Sept. - Nov.). Photo: Australian BOM\" width=\"640\" height=\"428\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/rain.forecast.median.national.season1.20260820.hr_.png?resize=640%2C428&amp;ssl=1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/rain.forecast.median.national.season1.20260820.hr_.png?w=1085&amp;ssl=1 1085w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/rain.forecast.median.national.season1.20260820.hr_.png?resize=300%2C201&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/rain.forecast.median.national.season1.20260820.hr_.png?resize=768%2C514&amp;ssl=1 768w\" data-max-width=\"640\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-eio-rwidth=\"640\" data-eio-rheight=\"428\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-422333\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/rain.forecast.median.national.season1.20260820.hr_.png?resize=640%2C428&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"The austral spring precipitation forecast (Sept. - Nov.). Photo: Australian BOM\" width=\"640\" height=\"428\" data-eio=\"l\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-422333\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The austral spring precipitation forecast (Sept. \u2013 Nov.). Photo: Australian BOM<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"code-block code-block-2\" style=\"margin: 8px auto;text-align: center;display: block;clear: both\">\n<!-- GAM 71161633\/SNWBR_snowbrains\/article_hrec_2 --><\/p>\n<div data-fuse=\"article_hrec_2\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<figure id=\"attachment_422334\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-422334\" style=\"width: 1085px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-422334 lazyload\" src=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAoAAAAGsAQMAAAB3hYSwAAAABlBMVEUAAAD\/\/\/+l2Z\/dAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAAAlwSFlzAAAOxAAADsQBlSsOGwAAADhJREFUeNrtwTEBAAAAwqD1T20KP6AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAADga4dsAAF0zHvyAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\" alt width=\"640\" height=\"428\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/tmax.forecast.median.national.season1.20260820.hr_.png?resize=640%2C428&amp;ssl=1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/tmax.forecast.median.national.season1.20260820.hr_.png?w=1085&amp;ssl=1 1085w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/tmax.forecast.median.national.season1.20260820.hr_.png?resize=300%2C201&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/tmax.forecast.median.national.season1.20260820.hr_.png?resize=768%2C514&amp;ssl=1 768w\" data-max-width=\"640\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-eio-rwidth=\"640\" data-eio-rheight=\"428\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-422334\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/tmax.forecast.median.national.season1.20260820.hr_.png?resize=640%2C428&amp;ssl=1\" alt width=\"640\" height=\"428\" data-eio=\"l\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-422334\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The austral spring temperature forecast (Sept. \u2013 Nov.). Photo: Australian BOM<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2><strong>The Waning Australia Ski Season<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><b>Unfortunately, the wet weather has not resulted in a good ski season.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Rather than precipitation, the culprit is unrelenting warmth in a ski region that already straddled the rain-snow line, even before climate change. Many ski resorts have already closed, and the others are on their way out, even though late August is prime season.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Australia\u2019s primary snowmakers are big cold-front-packing storms that come up from the south<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. This winter saw very little action from the Southern Ocean. Instead, precipitation was primarily from the west. Once upon a time, there may have been enough cold air to produce some snow from these systems, but that was far from the case this year. Snow levels often reached well above the summits of the continent\u2019s highest mountains.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>With models signaling a hot spring and little-to-no snow in the short-to-medium range forecast (0-15 days), it\u2019s difficult to imagine Australian skiing lasting more than a couple more weeks.<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Related: <em><a href=\"https:\/\/snowbrains.com\/selwyn-snow-resort-australia-closes-early-after-rain-ends-2026-season\/\">Selwyn Snow Resort, Australia, Closes Early After Rain Ends 2026 Season<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure id=\"attachment_421815\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-421815\" style=\"width: 1920px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-421815 lazyload\" src=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAoAAAAFoAQMAAAD9\/NgSAAAABlBMVEUAAAD\/\/\/+l2Z\/dAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAAAlwSFlzAAAOxAAADsQBlSsOGwAAADJJREFUeNrtwQENAAAAwqD3T+3sARQAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAN3HoAAEwzlS7AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\" alt width=\"640\" height=\"360\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/IMG_4316.jpeg?resize=640%2C360&amp;ssl=1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/IMG_4316.jpeg?w=1920&amp;ssl=1 1920w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/IMG_4316.jpeg?resize=300%2C169&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/IMG_4316.jpeg?resize=1200%2C675&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/IMG_4316.jpeg?resize=768%2C432&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/IMG_4316.jpeg?resize=1536%2C864&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/IMG_4316.jpeg?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w\" data-max-width=\"640\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-eio-rwidth=\"640\" data-eio-rheight=\"360\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-421815\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/IMG_4316.jpeg?resize=640%2C360&amp;ssl=1\" alt width=\"640\" height=\"360\" data-eio=\"l\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-421815\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Rain essentially decimated the snowpack at Selwyn last week | Photo: Selwyn webcam<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"code-block code-block-3\" style=\"margin: 8px auto;text-align: center;display: block;clear: both\">\n<!-- GAM 71161633\/SNWBR_snowbrains\/article_hrec_4 --><\/p>\n<div data-fuse=\"article_hrec_4\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- CONTENT END 1 -->\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rainforest in Great Otway National Park. Rainforests cover about 3.6 million hectares on the continent (8.9 million acres). Photo: Rough Guides After months of dire drought forecasts, Australia has bucked the meteorological community\u2019s consensus on how its weather should behave. The continent is well on its way to the wettest El Ni\u00f1o year ever, somewhat [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[226,267],"class_list":["post-2112590","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-crawlmanager","tag-snowbrains-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2112590","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2112590"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2112590\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2112590"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2112590"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2112590"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}