{"id":2111063,"date":"2026-08-25T15:10:22","date_gmt":"2026-08-25T12:10:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2111063"},"modified":"2026-08-25T15:10:22","modified_gmt":"2026-08-25T12:10:22","slug":"noaas-september-outlook-offers-a-first-look-at-the-strong-el-nino-winter-to-come","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2111063","title":{"rendered":"NOAA\u2019s September Outlook Offers a First Look at the Strong El Ni\u00f1o Winter to Come"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"September\"September<\/a>
NOAA September 2026 US weather forecast. | Photo: NOAA<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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NOAA<\/a> recently released its official forecast for September in the United States.<\/strong> The agency reports that El Ni\u00f1o \u2014 a recurring climate phenomenon in which unusually warm ocean temperatures in the South Pacific drive shifts in weather patterns worldwide \u2014 is strengthening fast.<\/p>\n

Ocean temperatures have warmed to 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit) above average in localized regions of the Pacific, pushing the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 Sea Surface Temperature index (SST) to 1.8 C above normal.<\/strong> This marks at least a 0.3 C jump from the beginning of summer, and other agencies, such as the IRI<\/a>, report a current index value as high as 2.7 C.<\/p>\n

For a year to be classified as an \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o\u201d year, the index must reach at least 0.5 C above normal.<\/strong> A strong El Ni\u00f1o reaches 1.5 C or higher, meaning the current 1.8 C reading already puts the event squarely in \u201cstrong\u201d El Ni\u00f1o territory \u2014 and possibly trending toward a \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1o year, defined as greater than 2 C.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o conditions are expected to persist for months to come, and even strengthen as the 2026-2027 winter approaches.<\/strong> NOAA currently predicts, with 97% confidence, that El Ni\u00f1o conditions will continue at least through spring 2027. Furthermore, there is an 81-90% chance the event becomes \u201cvery strong\u201d (greater than 2 C) by its expected peak between October 2026 and January 2027.<\/p>\n

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