(Image credit: Getty Images)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\nAlmeida was second here last year and Jay Vine has won four stages and been best climber twice. Basically, they would be team leaders if they weren\u2019t on UAE, which places them in a similar position to the one Isaac Del Toro enjoyed in this year\u2019s Tour de France.<\/p>\n
However, contrary to the Tour, the opposition at the Vuelta is certainly weaker. The mathematics are quite simple for Poga\u010dar\u2019s nearest rivals. Jonas Vingegaard rode the Giro d\u2019Italia within himself whenever he could and still finished over five minutes ahead of Felix Gall, and yet one month later on the roads of France the Dane was four and a half minutes in arrears to Poga\u010dar after 14 stages.<\/p>\n
We didn\u2019t get to find out if that gap would have grown as Vingegaard left the race on day 15 but what it does tell us is if Poga\u010dar wants to make a statement then second on GC is likely to be close to 10 minutes behind by the finish in Granada.<\/p>\n
Total domination is unlikely<\/h2>\n Luckily, there are a couple of things that make total domination unlikely. There\u2019ll still be days when Tadej turns on the afterburners and rides away from everyone but this is a race he will want to get through with the least stress possible. Physically, he will need to be fairly cautious as there remain two big objectives afterwards, the World Championships in Montr\u00e9al and then the season\u2019s final Monument, Il Lombardia, so recovery is important.<\/p>\n
And then there\u2019s the mental aspect to consider. A three-week race at this stage of the season, when you have won nearly every race that you planned to, might begin to weigh heavy on the mind. Grand Tours are rarely fun and Poga\u010dar will want the least pressure possible, which is where Almeida and Vine step in and take some of the responsibilities off their team leader\u2019s shoulders. If either are given a chance to take the red jersey then that\u2019s fewer media and podium duties and more recovery for Poga\u010dar.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s an opportunity which often opens up when there\u2019s one big favourite and everyone waits for them to make a move, and if the situation happens out on the road then both of the UAE lieutenants will be expected to seize it.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, for those not on UAE, the decision will be when do they start racing for the other podium positions below Poga\u010dar. Cruel it may be, but realistically the other GC riders know they won\u2019t be following Poga\u010dar when he decides it\u2019s a day for winning so the likelihood is the Slovenian will go ahead and do his thing and everyone else will compete amongst themselves.<\/p>\n
The best of the rest<\/h2>\n Looking at the route, the sheer number of mountain or hill-top finishes means it\u2019s unlikely we will see any of the GC challengers completely dominate in what I\u2019ll call the Gall\/Onley group.<\/p>\n
If you look at Felix Gall, his characteristics suit long sustained uphill efforts, while Oscar Onley is more suited to the sharper steeper climbs. The Netcompany-Ineos leader is more explosive so that\u2019s typically climbing days in Andorra, whilst Gall is much more steady in how he paces himself and that\u2019s the last week down in the south. In between, the middle week, expect some echelons and fighting for position, which isn\u2019t a Felix Gall strong point so the talk of him being the obvious runner-up isn\u2019t a given.<\/p>\n\n\n
\n
\nOscar Onley (middle) and Felix Gall (left) are among the challengers for the podium <\/span>(Image credit: Getty Images)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\nWhat is for sure is in the GC group almost everyone bar Richard Carapaz has something to prove. Cian Uijtdebroeks has to salvage a disappointing season, Enric Mas needs a win and something better than an expected 8th place. Onley requires some confidence and Netcompany a bit of unity to be installed after a few fractious comments between teammates. Over at Lidl-Trek, they can probably count on Mattias Skjelmose to be in the top five but a stage win would be nice along with it.<\/p>\n
And then there\u2019s Primo\u017e Rogli\u010d. Let\u2019s hope he doesn\u2019t crash in the first week and he can settle into his favourite race. The stated tactic of not riding for GC is an interesting one but few will believe it until he loses 10 minutes because if he\u2019s still there in the last week then with the experience he has the 32km time trial is in his favour. He\u2019s not racing Poga\u010dar but outside of him the other GC riders aren\u2019t exactly specialists on the TT bike.<\/p>\n
The fast men<\/h2>\n The fast men aren\u2019t numerous at this Vuelta, understandably so given the climbing involved. However, we will get to see how Visma-Lease a Bike manage the Wout Van Aert and Matthew Brennan situation.<\/p>\n
Van Aert is on the rise after a few setbacks in the middle of the season and the young Brit lines up for his first Grand Tour.<\/p>\n
Jordi Meeus is one place higher in the sprint rankings but with Christophe Laporte also in the Visma line-up the betting person would be right in thinking the odds are in favour of the Dutch squad.<\/p>\n
And they have Sepp Kuss, who may or may not be GC Kuss. However, commencing Saturday on the shiny streets of Monaco we will have three weeks of action to find out if any of the pre-race speculation was accurate.<\/p>\n
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