{"id":2092486,"date":"2026-08-13T23:34:31","date_gmt":"2026-08-13T20:34:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2092486"},"modified":"2026-08-13T23:34:31","modified_gmt":"2026-08-13T20:34:31","slug":"opensnow-predicts-record-super-el-nino-winter-with-massive-southwest-powder-potential-and-high-temperature-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2092486","title":{"rendered":"OpenSnow Predicts Record \u201cSuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d Winter with Massive Southwest Powder Potential and High Temperature Risk"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p><span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center;display: block\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"1\"><strong>Forecasters are gearing up for what could be a historic winter across North America, driven by a potential \u201csuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d event capable of reshaping storm tracks worldwide.<\/strong> In a long-range seasonal forecast published by OpenSnow, lead forecaster Alan Smith lays out a high-stakes outlook that hinges on a record-shattering ocean warming trend across the equatorial Pacific. If current model projections hold, the winter season will see a classic southern-tier split, favoring the American Southwest, California, Utah, and Southern Colorado with heavy precipitation while leaving the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, Canada, and the East Coast fighting warmer-than-average temperatures.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-path-to-node=\"1\"><strong>Related: <\/strong><em><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/snowbrains.com\/noaa-enso-blog-how-does-el-nino-influence-snowfall-over-the-united-states\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">How Does El Ni\u00f1o Influence Snowfall Over the United States?<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"2\"><strong>The meteorological engine behind this prediction is astonishingly powerful.<\/strong> Sea surface temperature data shows the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 index sitting at 1.8\u00baC above average, while the near-coastal Ni\u00f1o 1+2 region reached a staggering 3.3\u00baC anomaly in early August. Climate modeling from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) indicates the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region could peak between 3.5\u00baC and 4.5\u00baC above normal by late fall, which would represent an unprecedented atmospheric event. NOAA has assigned a 75 to 80 percent probability of a \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1o persisting from October through January. To build the winter forecast, OpenSnow relied heavily on four primary analog seasons with similar ocean basin profiles: 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16, and 2023-24, alongside five weaker historical events weighted more lightly.<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"0\"><strong>If you\u2019re a skier or rider in the Southwest, OpenSnow\u2019s forecast paints a seriously enticing picture once that subtropical jet stream locks in between January and March.<\/strong> New Mexico stands out as one of the primary winners in this setup, with resorts across the state favored to pull in well-above-average snowfall as storm tracks push south. California\u2019s Central Sierra like Mammoth Mountain and China Peak is also pegged for above-normal totals after a potentially slow December start, with Southern California mountains historically overperforming during these setups. Over in Utah, the outlook heavily favors Park City, the Cottonwood Canyons, Snowbasin, and Southern Utah. In fact, Park City shows a particularly strong historical link to above-average snow during these events, thanks to how the subtropical jet lines up favorable winds across the Wasatch Back. Meanwhile, Southern and Eastern Colorado, including the San Juans, carry that same strong storm signal, while core Summit County spots, Vail, Aspen, Crested Butte, and Steamboat sit in a neutral zone with no clear precipitation trend.<\/p>\n<div class=\"code-block code-block-15\" style=\"margin: 8px auto;text-align: center;display: block;clear: both\">\n<\/div>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"1\"><strong>Flip over to the northern half of North America, though, and it\u2019s a much tougher story.<\/strong> The Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and the Canadian Rockies are all projected to end up below normal on snow \u2014 driven mostly by persistent warmer-than-average temperatures rather than a total lack of moisture. Major BC destinations like Revelstoke and Kicking Horse lean drier, while interior resorts like Whitewater, Red Mountain, and Fernie face serious rain vulnerability at lower elevations. Across the rest of the continent, the East Coast, Upper Midwest, and Quebec are looking at below-average snow totals thanks to those same elevated temperatures, leaving coastal cities banking on an isolated Nor\u2019easter or two to save their season. Overseas, Japan\u2019s Hokkaido and Honshu regions are expected to run warmer than normal, while the European Alps face high snow lines and rain risks down low despite slightly above-average precipitation.<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"2\"><strong>While those headline numbers for New Mexico and the Southwest sound promising, a closer look at the data reveals some major methodology flaws and asymmetric risks that could easily spoil the party.<\/strong> For starters, it is worth noting that while NOAA officially frames this as a 75 to 80 percent chance of a \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1o, OpenSnow goes a step further by coining it a \u201csuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d event. But OpenSnow\u2019s forecast relies heavily on just four primary historical analog years, and they dismiss 2015-16 \u2014 a super El Ni\u00f1o season that famously busted with below-average snowfall across California and New Mexico \u2014 as just one data point. On top of that, using 1982-83 and 1997-98 as baseline analogs ignores decades of global climate warming, effectively importing a colder historical atmosphere into a much warmer 2026 climate reality. The biggest wild card, however, is the fragile line between snow and rain. Almost every \u201cbelow-normal\u201d prediction in the outlook is driven by heat, and even the \u201cabove-normal\u201d calls come with stern warnings about high snow levels. If winter temperatures end up running even a fraction of a degree warmer than models predict, that extra moisture won\u2019t mean knee-deep powder days for New Mexico and the Southwest \u2014 it will mean high-elevation rain, turning what looks like a legendary winter into a massive headache for mid- and lower-elevation resorts.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_420269\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-420269\" style=\"width: 1778px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-420269 lazyload\" src=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAoAAAAG1AQMAAABTXNfjAAAABlBMVEUAAAD\/\/\/+l2Z\/dAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAAAlwSFlzAAAOxAAADsQBlSsOGwAAADlJREFUeNrtwTEBAAAAwqD1T20Gf6AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAuA2KRQAB2CtFdQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\" alt=\"opensnow noaa weather El Ni\u00f1o\" width=\"640\" height=\"437\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-13-at-7.31.19-PM.jpeg?resize=640%2C437&amp;ssl=1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-13-at-7.31.19-PM.jpeg?w=1778&amp;ssl=1 1778w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-13-at-7.31.19-PM.jpeg?resize=300%2C205&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-13-at-7.31.19-PM.jpeg?resize=1200%2C819&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-13-at-7.31.19-PM.jpeg?resize=768%2C524&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-13-at-7.31.19-PM.jpeg?resize=1536%2C1049&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-13-at-7.31.19-PM.jpeg?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-eio-rwidth=\"640\" data-eio-rheight=\"437\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-420269\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-13-at-7.31.19-PM.jpeg?resize=640%2C437&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"opensnow noaa weather El Ni\u00f1o\" width=\"640\" height=\"437\" data-eio=\"l\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-420269\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Screen shot: OpenSnow<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"code-block code-block-1\" style=\"margin: 8px auto;text-align: center;display: block;clear: both\">\n<!-- GAM 71161633\/SNWBR_snowbrains\/article_hrec_1 --><\/p>\n<div data-fuse=\"article_hrec_1\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"2\">\n<!-- CONTENT END 1 -->\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Forecasters are gearing up for what could be a historic winter across North America, driven by a potential \u201csuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d event capable of reshaping storm tracks worldwide. In a long-range seasonal forecast published by OpenSnow, lead forecaster Alan Smith lays out a high-stakes outlook that hinges on a record-shattering ocean warming trend across the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[226,267],"class_list":["post-2092486","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-crawlmanager","tag-snowbrains-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2092486","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2092486"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2092486\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2092486"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2092486"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2092486"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}