{"id":2058173,"date":"2026-07-23T16:22:40","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T13:22:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2058173"},"modified":"2026-07-23T16:22:40","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T13:22:40","slug":"betting-on-lebron-james-next-team-used-to-be-a-novelty-now-its-a-nine-figure-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2058173","title":{"rendered":"Betting on LeBron James\u2019 next team used to be a novelty \u2013 now it\u2019s a nine-figure market"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"Article_ContentContainer__jBNW3 article-content-container bodytext1\">\n<p>For as long as LeBron James has been making decisions about where he\u2019ll play professional basketball, there have been ways to wager on said decisions.<\/p>\n<p>Those opportunities have evolved dramatically in the 16 years since James was first a free agent. What was once limited to offshore sportsbooks is now a nine-figure market on Kalshi, where $200 million has already been traded \u2014 more than on who would win Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad-container\">\n<div class=\"ad-wrapper article-treatment\">\n<div class=\"ad-slug-container\">\n<p class=\"ad-slug\">Advertisement<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"mid1\" data-position=\"mid1\" class=\"ad place-ad\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u201cThis one\u2019s been really popular,\u201d said DraftKings director of sports operations Johnny Avello. \u201cHe likes to string it out and make it a show. Which is kind of good for us bookmaking.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt puts a lot of money into the pot and spreads out the action for us.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/live-blogs\/lebron-james-free-agency-decision-signing-nba\/nBgi4hAVhSkf\/\">we await an answer<\/a> on where James will (likely) finish his storied career, let\u2019s take a look at the odds for each of his pivot points, including this next one.<\/p>\n<div data-ath-video-stream=\"8ecZjMg9IgMnWo6\">\n<div class=\"VideoHost_Root__QeM_i\">\n<div class=\"VideoHost_VideoWidth__XjNKI VideoHost_Portrait__XBaJC\">\n<div class=\"VideoTitleFrame_Root__AGckL\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"VideoTitleFrame_Title__npf3B\">Where will LeBron James end up?<\/div>\n<div class=\"VideoTitleFrame_Authors__jxyYV\">The Athletic NBA Staff and Jeshua Kidd<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"VideoTitleFrame_VideoWrapper__Xgp47\">{&#8220;@context&#8221;:&#8221;https:\/\/schema.org&#8221;,&#8221;@type&#8221;:&#8221;VideoObject&#8221;,&#8221;@id&#8221;:&#8221;https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/video\/8ecZjMg9IgMnWo6\/&#8221;,&#8221;url&#8221;:&#8221;https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/video\/8ecZjMg9IgMnWo6\/&#8221;,&#8221;name&#8221;:&#8221;Where will LeBron James end up?&#8221;,&#8221;description&#8221;:&#8221;With his free agency decision still looming, we asked our reporters where they think LeBron James will play next.&#8221;,&#8221;uploadDate&#8221;:&#8221;2026-07-17T15:20:39.563Z&#8221;,&#8221;duration&#8221;:&#8221;PT52S&#8221;,&#8221;thumbnailUrl&#8221;:&#8221;https:\/\/cdn-media.theathletic.com\/video-stream\/auto-thumbnail\/8ecZjMg9IgMnWo6\/MJrJogZd5Z6K.0000000.jpg&#8221;,&#8221;contentUrl&#8221;:&#8221;https:\/\/video.nyt.com\/athletic\/streams\/8ecZjMg9IgMnWo6\/MJrJogZd5Z6K\/MJrJogZd5Z6K.m3u8&#8243;,&#8221;transcript&#8221;:&#8221;We asked our reporters, where will LeBron James end up? pretty far wherever I land. I&#8217;m gonna go do what I do best. I think he&#8217;s going to Cleveland. Cleveland, Cleveland, Cleveland, because he misses me. Uh, he&#8217;s definitely not going to Dallas for the oil, Gulf, Macau in Africa. So I, I think he&#8217;s gonna end up Cleveland back home. I think the draw of playing at home makes the most sense. It&#8217;s gonna be either Cleveland or Golden State. Play with Stephen Curry. If happiness is what it is, then it&#8217;s gotta either be going back home or going upstate Miami because he is a man who loves golf and he already did the Cavs rerun. I feel like if Giannis is really trying to talk me into starting this thing again in Miami, how could you say no to that? I would love to see him go to Philly. Philly makes a ton of sense, but I think he ends up in Cleveland. And then like my favorite fit is Minnesota. Like I&#8217;d love to see him play with and, and LaMelo. Like let&#8217;s, let&#8217;s get crazy.&#8221;,&#8221;ineligibleRegion&#8221;:[&#8220;BI&#8221;,&#8221;BY&#8221;,&#8221;CD&#8221;,&#8221;CF&#8221;,&#8221;CU&#8221;,&#8221;IQ&#8221;,&#8221;IR&#8221;,&#8221;KP&#8221;,&#8221;LB&#8221;,&#8221;LY&#8221;,&#8221;ML&#8221;,&#8221;NI&#8221;,&#8221;RU&#8221;,&#8221;SD&#8221;,&#8221;SO&#8221;,&#8221;SS&#8221;,&#8221;SY&#8221;,&#8221;UA&#8221;,&#8221;VE&#8221;,&#8221;YE&#8221;,&#8221;ZW&#8221;],&#8221;publisher&#8221;:{&#8220;@type&#8221;:&#8221;NewsMediaOrganization&#8221;,&#8221;@id&#8221;:&#8221;https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/#publisher&#8221;,&#8221;name&#8221;:&#8221;The Athletic&#8221;,&#8221;url&#8221;:&#8221;https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/&#8221;,&#8221;foundingDate&#8221;:&#8221;2016-01-25&#8243;,&#8221;logo&#8221;:{&#8220;@type&#8221;:&#8221;ImageObject&#8221;,&#8221;@id&#8221;:&#8221;https:\/\/theathletic.com\/app\/themes\/athletic\/assets\/img\/the-athletic-wordmark-black.png&#8221;,&#8221;url&#8221;:&#8221;https:\/\/theathletic.com\/app\/themes\/athletic\/assets\/img\/the-athletic-wordmark-black.png&#8221;,&#8221;contentUrl&#8221;:&#8221;https:\/\/theathletic.com\/app\/themes\/athletic\/assets\/img\/the-athletic-wordmark-black.png&#8221;,&#8221;creditText&#8221;:&#8221;The Athletic&#8221;,&#8221;height&#8221;:&#8221;60&#8243;,&#8221;width&#8221;:&#8221;435&#8243;},&#8221;publishingPrinciples&#8221;:&#8221;https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/edit-guidelines\/&#8221;,&#8221;sameAs&#8221;:&#8221;https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/The_Athletic&#8221;},&#8221;author&#8221;:[{&#8220;@type&#8221;:&#8221;Person&#8221;,&#8221;name&#8221;:&#8221;The Athletic NBA Staff and Jeshua Kidd&#8221;}]}<\/p>\n<div class=\"AspectRatioBox_root__AKv5b\" style=\"aspect-ratio:9 \/ 16;max-height:min(100%)\">\n<div class=\"AspectRatioBox_inner__86C_2\" style=\"aspect-ratio:9 \/ 16\">\n<div class=\"VideoStreamPlayer_GridStack__2H0p2\"><video preload=\"metadata\"><\/video><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>2010: Moving to Miami<\/h2>\n<p>James led the Cleveland Cavaliers to the NBA\u2019s best record in 2009-10 and had established himself as the league\u2019s best player, having won back-to-back MVP awards. But after Cleveland lost in the second round of the playoffs to the Boston Celtics, and James removed his jersey while exiting the court in Boston, it seemed he was destined for another city.<\/p>\n<p>Still, the Cavs were favored to retain him when markets opened on May 14, a day after they were eliminated and two months before he\u2019d make \u201cThe Decision\u201d on live TV. Miami, where James famously chose to sign, was a distant fourth.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ath_table_492400\" class=\"tab-content relative\">\n<div id=\"table-preview-492400\" class=\"table-responsive border-transparent-imp\">\n<table class=\"in-article table border-transparent-imp in-article-striped in-article-no-column-border-right in-article-no-column-border-left\" style=\"max-width: none;margin: 0\">\n<thead class=\"allcaps\">\n<tr>\n<th class=\"user-select-none relative nowrap-imp\"><span class=\"left\">Team<\/span><\/th>\n<th class=\"user-select-none relative nowrap-imp\"><span class=\"left\">Odds<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/cavaliers\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-74-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Cavaliers<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>-138<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/bulls\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-73-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Bulls<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+200<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/knicks\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-68-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Knicks<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+250<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/heat\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-66-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Heat<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+750<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/nets\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-70-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Nets<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+800<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p>if([&#8220;rgb(17, 17, 17)&#8221;, &#8220;rgb(0, 0, 0)&#8221;, &#8220;rgb(18, 18, 18)&#8221;, &#8220;rgb(26, 26, 26)&#8221;].indexOf(getComputedStyle(document.body).backgroundColor) != -1) {var x = document.querySelectorAll(&#8220;#ath_table_492400 .ia-hlt&#8221;);for (var i = 0; i &lt; x.length; i++) {x[i].classList.add(&quot;dark-mode&quot;);}}var all_table_images = document.querySelectorAll(&quot;#ath_table_492400 img&quot;); for (var i = 0; i &lt; all_table_images.length; i++) {all_table_images[i].removeAttribute(&quot;onclick&quot;)};var link = document.createElement(&quot;link&quot;);link.rel = &quot;stylesheet&quot;;link.type = &quot;text\/css&quot;;link.href = &quot;https:\/\/use.typekit.net\/cuz4pky.css&quot;;document.getElementsByTagName(&quot;HEAD&quot;)[0].appendChild(link);var link = document.createElement(&quot;link&quot;);link.rel = &quot;stylesheet&quot;;link.type = &quot;text\/css&quot;;link.href = &quot;https:\/\/use.typekit.net\/dtk6elt.css&quot;;document.getElementsByTagName(&quot;HEAD&quot;)[0].appendChild(link);var link = document.createElement(&quot;link&quot;);link.rel = &quot;stylesheet&quot;;link.type = &quot;text\/css&quot;;link.href = &quot;https:\/\/theathletic.com\/app\/themes\/athletic\/assets\/css\/tables.css&quot;;document.getElementsByTagName(&quot;HEAD&quot;)[0].appendChild(link);<\/p>\n<p>Still eight years prior to the Supreme Court\u2019s decision to overturn the federal ban that once outlawed sports betting in most states, the biggest \u201cbet\u201d was likely made on Wall Street: \u201cShares in Madison Square Garden, the owners of the Knicks, jumped $1.30, or 6.4 percent, to close at $21.57,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/archive.nytimes.com\/dealbook.nytimes.com\/2010\/07\/08\/lebron-knicks-speculation-pumps-up-msg-stock\/\">DealBook reported a day before James\u2019 decision<\/a>. \u201cVolume was up dramatically at 1.7 million trades, more than five times the daily average of 311,000.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>2014: Coming home to Cleveland<\/h2>\n<p>James\u2019 four years in Miami featured two championships sandwiched between two dispiriting losses in the NBA Finals. In 2014, the Heat looked too old and too slow as they wilted in five games against the San Antonio Spurs. But before James opted out of his contract, the odds heavily suggested he\u2019d remain with the Heat.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s how the market opened, according to data from Odds Shark:<\/p>\n<div id=\"ath_table_91801\" class=\"tab-content relative\">\n<div id=\"table-preview-91801\" class=\"table-responsive border-transparent-imp\">\n<table class=\"in-article table border-transparent-imp in-article-striped in-article-no-column-border-right in-article-no-column-border-left\" style=\"max-width: none;margin: 0\">\n<thead class=\"allcaps\">\n<tr>\n<th class=\"user-select-none relative nowrap-imp\"><span class=\"left\">Team<\/span><\/th>\n<th class=\"user-select-none relative nowrap-imp\"><span class=\"left\">Odds<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/heat\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-66-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Heat<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>-600<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/cavaliers\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-74-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Cavaliers<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+500<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/clippers\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-90-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Clippers<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+700<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/rockets\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-84-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Rockets<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+1000<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/bulls\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-73-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Bulls<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+1500<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/lakers\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-89-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Lakers<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+2500<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/knicks\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-68-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Knicks<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+2500<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/mavericks\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-87-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Mavericks<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+3000<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p>if([&#8220;rgb(17, 17, 17)&#8221;, &#8220;rgb(0, 0, 0)&#8221;, &#8220;rgb(18, 18, 18)&#8221;, &#8220;rgb(26, 26, 26)&#8221;].indexOf(getComputedStyle(document.body).backgroundColor) != -1) {var x = document.querySelectorAll(&#8220;#ath_table_91801 .ia-hlt&#8221;);for (var i = 0; i &lt; x.length; i++) {x[i].classList.add(&quot;dark-mode&quot;);}}var all_table_images = document.querySelectorAll(&quot;#ath_table_91801 img&quot;); for (var i = 0; i &lt; all_table_images.length; i++) {all_table_images[i].removeAttribute(&quot;onclick&quot;)};var link = document.createElement(&quot;link&quot;);link.rel = &quot;stylesheet&quot;;link.type = &quot;text\/css&quot;;link.href = &quot;https:\/\/use.typekit.net\/cuz4pky.css&quot;;document.getElementsByTagName(&quot;HEAD&quot;)[0].appendChild(link);var link = document.createElement(&quot;link&quot;);link.rel = &quot;stylesheet&quot;;link.type = &quot;text\/css&quot;;link.href = &quot;https:\/\/use.typekit.net\/dtk6elt.css&quot;;document.getElementsByTagName(&quot;HEAD&quot;)[0].appendChild(link);var link = document.createElement(&quot;link&quot;);link.rel = &quot;stylesheet&quot;;link.type = &quot;text\/css&quot;;link.href = &quot;https:\/\/theathletic.com\/app\/themes\/athletic\/assets\/css\/tables.css&quot;;document.getElementsByTagName(&quot;HEAD&quot;)[0].appendChild(link);<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt wasn\u2019t a slam dunk that it was going to be either\/or,\u201d James Bisson, head of betting content at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.covers.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Covers.com<\/a>, said of James\u2019 choice between staying in Miami and returning to Cleveland (which he ultimately did).<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad-container\">\n<div class=\"ad-wrapper article-treatment\">\n<div class=\"ad-slug-container\">\n<p class=\"ad-slug\">Advertisement<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"mid2\" data-position=\"mid2\" class=\"ad place-ad\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The market had changed since 2010, when the books offered odds on only five potential destinations. Just four years later, the books were more open to taking bets on longshots, including public teams such as the Lakers and Knicks.<\/p>\n<div id=\"top-league-content-root\"><\/div>\n<p>    {&#8220;endpoint&#8221;:&#8221;https:\/\/api-prd-nyt.theathletic.com\/graphql&#8221;}<\/p>\n<h2>2018: Leaving for Los Angeles<\/h2>\n<p>By 2018, it seemed like an open secret LeBron wanted to go to Los Angeles, but the odds tell a different story.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSportsbooks weren\u2019t that convinced he was going to end up in L.A. If you look, L.A. was the favorite \u2014 only time he went to the betting favorite \u2014 but it was such a narrow gap,\u201d Bisson said.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ath_table_923301\" class=\"tab-content relative\">\n<div id=\"table-preview-923301\" class=\"table-responsive border-transparent-imp\">\n<table class=\"in-article table border-transparent-imp in-article-striped in-article-no-column-border-right in-article-no-column-border-left\" style=\"max-width: none;margin: 0\">\n<thead class=\"allcaps\">\n<tr>\n<th class=\"user-select-none relative nowrap-imp\"><span class=\"left\">Team<\/span><\/th>\n<th class=\"user-select-none relative nowrap-imp\"><span class=\"left\">Odds<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/lakers\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-89-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Lakers<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+175<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/sixers\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-69-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">76ers<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+220<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/rockets\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-84-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Rockets<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+250<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/cavaliers\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-74-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Cavaliers<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+500<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p>if([&#8220;rgb(17, 17, 17)&#8221;, &#8220;rgb(0, 0, 0)&#8221;, &#8220;rgb(18, 18, 18)&#8221;, &#8220;rgb(26, 26, 26)&#8221;].indexOf(getComputedStyle(document.body).backgroundColor) != -1) {var x = document.querySelectorAll(&#8220;#ath_table_923301 .ia-hlt&#8221;);for (var i = 0; i &lt; x.length; i++) {x[i].classList.add(&quot;dark-mode&quot;);}}var all_table_images = document.querySelectorAll(&quot;#ath_table_923301 img&quot;); for (var i = 0; i &lt; all_table_images.length; i++) {all_table_images[i].removeAttribute(&quot;onclick&quot;)};var link = document.createElement(&quot;link&quot;);link.rel = &quot;stylesheet&quot;;link.type = &quot;text\/css&quot;;link.href = &quot;https:\/\/use.typekit.net\/cuz4pky.css&quot;;document.getElementsByTagName(&quot;HEAD&quot;)[0].appendChild(link);var link = document.createElement(&quot;link&quot;);link.rel = &quot;stylesheet&quot;;link.type = &quot;text\/css&quot;;link.href = &quot;https:\/\/use.typekit.net\/dtk6elt.css&quot;;document.getElementsByTagName(&quot;HEAD&quot;)[0].appendChild(link);var link = document.createElement(&quot;link&quot;);link.rel = &quot;stylesheet&quot;;link.type = &quot;text\/css&quot;;link.href = &quot;https:\/\/theathletic.com\/app\/themes\/athletic\/assets\/css\/tables.css&quot;;document.getElementsByTagName(&quot;HEAD&quot;)[0].appendChild(link);<\/p>\n<p>The implied probability was Lakers at 36 percent, 76ers at 31 percent, Rockets at 29 percent and Cavaliers at 17 percent (These numbers add up to 113 percent; the extra 13 percent represents the house edge in that betting market).<\/p>\n<p>Bisson noted that markets like this became increasingly popular throughout the decade as cellphone technology improved and books prioritized their mobile experiences. The lines moved sharply as more people bet on the Lakers, and by June 30, odds that James would join the iconic franchise rose to -5000. On July 1, his agency announced it on Twitter.<\/p>\n<p>To this day, betting on what team James chooses is not legal in Las Vegas, where the Nevada Gaming Control Board must give approval for any bet that isn\u2019t played out on in an arena. But by that point, traditional Vegas sportsbooks had been bracing for the potential move, taking bets on the Lakers\u2019 championship odds and shortening those odds as it became clearer.<\/p>\n<p id=\"article-pickem\">\n<p>Those who got in early on the 2018-19 Lakers never had a chance. The young roster wasn\u2019t ready to compete, James played just 55 games and the team missed the playoffs.<\/p>\n<h2>What\u2019s next?<\/h2>\n<p>This year, the possibilities are all over the place, as evidenced by agent Rich Paul\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=QHnzkvE-n9w\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">viral whiteboard<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The emergence of prediction markets have also added a new layer to this edition of LeBron Watch. On Kalshi, the Golden State Warriors, Cavaliers and Heat have traded off being the favorites this month. As of Thursday morning, Miami (46 percent) was in pole position with Cleveland (26 percent) not too far behind; Golden State (17 percent) and Philadelphia (9 percent) are also in the mix.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad-container\">\n<div class=\"ad-wrapper article-treatment\">\n<div class=\"ad-slug-container\">\n<p class=\"ad-slug\">Advertisement<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"mid3\" data-position=\"mid3\" class=\"ad place-ad\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>In the past, this was a mere novelty market, but this year over $200 million has already been traded on Kalshi for James\u2019 next destination. There is even a steady market on <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/kxnbateamannounce\/pro-basketball-new-team-announce\/kxnbateamannounce-26ljames23\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">what date his new team will be announced<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>DraftKings, which launched its first online sportsbook shortly after James\u2019 last relocation in August 2018, is now legal in 26 states and is offering lines for this market in 18 of them.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s how DraftKings set its opening odds on June 30, when James announced he would not return to the Lakers:<\/p>\n<div id=\"ath_table_802255\" class=\"tab-content relative\">\n<div id=\"table-preview-802255\" class=\"table-responsive border-transparent-imp\">\n<table class=\"in-article table border-transparent-imp in-article-striped in-article-no-column-border-right in-article-no-column-border-left\" style=\"max-width: none;margin: 0\">\n<thead class=\"allcaps\">\n<tr>\n<th class=\"user-select-none relative nowrap-imp\"><span class=\"left\">Team<\/span><\/th>\n<th class=\"user-select-none relative nowrap-imp\"><span class=\"left\">Odds<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/warriors\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-88-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Warriors<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>-275<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/cavaliers\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-74-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Cavaliers<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+150<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/heat\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-66-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Heat<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+1000<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/spurs\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-86-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Spurs<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+2000<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/knicks\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-68-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Knicks<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+3000<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/lakers\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-89-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Lakers<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+3000<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/pistons\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-76-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Pistons<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+3000<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/mavericks\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-87-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Mavericks<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+3000<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p>if([&#8220;rgb(17, 17, 17)&#8221;, &#8220;rgb(0, 0, 0)&#8221;, &#8220;rgb(18, 18, 18)&#8221;, &#8220;rgb(26, 26, 26)&#8221;].indexOf(getComputedStyle(document.body).backgroundColor) != -1) {var x = document.querySelectorAll(&#8220;#ath_table_802255 .ia-hlt&#8221;);for (var i = 0; i &lt; x.length; i++) {x[i].classList.add(&quot;dark-mode&quot;);}}var all_table_images = document.querySelectorAll(&quot;#ath_table_802255 img&quot;); for (var i = 0; i &lt; all_table_images.length; i++) {all_table_images[i].removeAttribute(&quot;onclick&quot;)};var link = document.createElement(&quot;link&quot;);link.rel = &quot;stylesheet&quot;;link.type = &quot;text\/css&quot;;link.href = &quot;https:\/\/use.typekit.net\/cuz4pky.css&quot;;document.getElementsByTagName(&quot;HEAD&quot;)[0].appendChild(link);var link = document.createElement(&quot;link&quot;);link.rel = &quot;stylesheet&quot;;link.type = &quot;text\/css&quot;;link.href = &quot;https:\/\/use.typekit.net\/dtk6elt.css&quot;;document.getElementsByTagName(&quot;HEAD&quot;)[0].appendChild(link);var link = document.createElement(&quot;link&quot;);link.rel = &quot;stylesheet&quot;;link.type = &quot;text\/css&quot;;link.href = &quot;https:\/\/theathletic.com\/app\/themes\/athletic\/assets\/css\/tables.css&quot;;document.getElementsByTagName(&quot;HEAD&quot;)[0].appendChild(link);<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s an abbreviated list, because the book is offering odds on all 30 teams.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s no team for sure that he\u2019s going to, and there\u2019s no team for sure that he\u2019s not going to,\u201d said Avello, perhaps momentarily forgetting about the existence of the Sacramento Kings. \u201cWe have to put up any rumor or media news that we heard of where he\u2019s thinking about going.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Like the rest of us, the bookmakers feel all the rumblings and try to determine what\u2019s credible.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere are some factors we have to take into consideration,\u201d Avello said. \u201cHe wants to be with a competitive team. What\u2019s his family think of the place they\u2019re going to? Bronny \u2014 does Bronny need to have a spot on the roster? \u2026 There are a lot of factors that are going to go into his decision, and those are factors we have to think about, too, when we\u2019re initially putting up those odds and then when making adjustments.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s now down to a four-team race, with two long-shots and the remaining 24 teams listed at 100-to-1 odds.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ath_table_808633\" class=\"tab-content relative\">\n<div id=\"table-preview-808633\" class=\"table-responsive border-transparent-imp\">\n<table class=\"in-article table border-transparent-imp in-article-striped in-article-no-column-border-right in-article-no-column-border-left\" style=\"max-width: none;margin: 0\">\n<thead class=\"allcaps\">\n<tr>\n<th class=\"user-select-none relative nowrap-imp\"><span class=\"left\">Team<\/span><\/th>\n<th class=\"user-select-none relative nowrap-imp\"><span class=\"left\">Odds<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/heat\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-66-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Heat<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>-200<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/cavaliers\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-74-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Cavaliers<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+225<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/warriors\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-88-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Warriors<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+450<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/sixers\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-69-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">76ers<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+700<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/timberwolves\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-78-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Timberwolves<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+4000<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"ia-hlt team relative\">\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nba\/team\/wizards\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"position: relative\" src=\"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/athletic\/logos\/team\/team-logo-63-50x50.png\"><span style=\"margin-left:0px;vertical-align:middle\">Wizards<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div><span>+5000<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p>if([&#8220;rgb(17, 17, 17)&#8221;, &#8220;rgb(0, 0, 0)&#8221;, &#8220;rgb(18, 18, 18)&#8221;, &#8220;rgb(26, 26, 26)&#8221;].indexOf(getComputedStyle(document.body).backgroundColor) != -1) {var x = document.querySelectorAll(&#8220;#ath_table_808633 .ia-hlt&#8221;);for (var i = 0; i &lt; x.length; i++) {x[i].classList.add(&quot;dark-mode&quot;);}}var all_table_images = document.querySelectorAll(&quot;#ath_table_808633 img&quot;); for (var i = 0; i &lt; all_table_images.length; i++) {all_table_images[i].removeAttribute(&quot;onclick&quot;)};var link = document.createElement(&quot;link&quot;);link.rel = &quot;stylesheet&quot;;link.type = &quot;text\/css&quot;;link.href = &quot;https:\/\/use.typekit.net\/cuz4pky.css&quot;;document.getElementsByTagName(&quot;HEAD&quot;)[0].appendChild(link);var link = document.createElement(&quot;link&quot;);link.rel = &quot;stylesheet&quot;;link.type = &quot;text\/css&quot;;link.href = &quot;https:\/\/use.typekit.net\/dtk6elt.css&quot;;document.getElementsByTagName(&quot;HEAD&quot;)[0].appendChild(link);var link = document.createElement(&quot;link&quot;);link.rel = &quot;stylesheet&quot;;link.type = &quot;text\/css&quot;;link.href = &quot;https:\/\/theathletic.com\/app\/themes\/athletic\/assets\/css\/tables.css&quot;;document.getElementsByTagName(&quot;HEAD&quot;)[0].appendChild(link);\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For as long as LeBron James has been making decisions about where he\u2019ll play professional basketball, there have been ways to wager on said decisions. Those opportunities have evolved dramatically in the 16 years since James was first a free agent. What was once limited to offshore sportsbooks is now a nine-figure market on Kalshi, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[226,241],"class_list":["post-2058173","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-crawlmanager","tag-nytimes-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2058173","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2058173"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2058173\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2058173"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2058173"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2058173"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}