{"id":2054581,"date":"2026-07-21T08:55:15","date_gmt":"2026-07-21T05:55:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2054581"},"modified":"2026-07-21T08:55:15","modified_gmt":"2026-07-21T05:55:15","slug":"tadej-pogacar-has-all-but-won-the-tour-de-france-heres-why-the-brutal-final-week-still-matters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2054581","title":{"rendered":"Tadej Poga\u010dar Has All but Won the Tour de France: Here\u2019s Why the Brutal Final Week Still Matters"},"content":{"rendered":"

[analyse_image type=”featured” src=”https:\/\/velo-cdn.outsideonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Z8A_2731.jpg”]<\/p>\n

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Andrew Hood<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Updated July 21, 2026 03:23AM<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

With Jonas Vingegaard out and Tadej Poga\u010dar holding a vise grip on the yellow jersey, the Tour de France suddenly looks all but decided.<\/p>\n

Not so fast. The finish line is in Paris and people seem to be forgetting that the hardest part of this Tour is still to come.<\/p>\n

Poga\u010dar might not be losing any sleep over the GC, but this Tour is overflowing with unfinished business.<\/p>\n

The final week of any grand tour is the most brutal and the most unpredictable. This is when collapses happen and heroes can be made in one gigantic attack.<\/p>\n

And the closing week of the Tour is stacked up with endless climbs, including doubleheader stages at Alpe d\u2019Huez this weekend.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s still plenty to race for in week 3 at the 2026 Tour.<\/p>\n

The podium fight has exploded wide open, jerseys still up for grabs, desperate teams are hunting for a Tour-saving stage win, and Poga\u010dar is still chasing cycling history every time he pins on a race number.<\/p>\n

Six days is still a long time in what\u2019s looks to be the fastest Tour de France ever.<\/p>\n

No one\u2019s predicting that Poga\u010dar is going to crack, but here\u2019s what still matters before the Champs-\u00c9lys\u00e9es.<\/p>\n

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1. How much history will Poga\u010dar chase?<\/h2>\n
\"UAE
Only a crash, illness, or act of God will stop Poga\u010dar now.<\/span> (Photo: Gruber Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

There is no stopping Poga\u010dar. Everyone admits that now.<\/p>\n

With Vingegaard gone, no one is even going to try to attack yellow. Barring a crash or illness, Poga\u010dar is only six racing days away from a record-tying fifth Tour de France victory.<\/p>\n

The question now is how greedy he wants to be over the final week.<\/p>\n

Poga\u010dar already shares fourth place on the all-time Tour stage win list with Andr\u00e9 Leducq on 25 victories. He\u2019s only three behind Bernard Hinault, while Eddy Merckx\u2019s 34 wins and Mark Cavendish\u2019s all-time record are suddenly coming into view over the next few seasons.<\/p>\n

If Poga\u010dar feels like feasting, there are plenty of opportunities left.<\/p>\n

Tuesday\u2019s time trial should favor Remco Evenepoel, although nothing is guaranteed this deep into the Tour. Wednesday and Thursday could belong to the breakaways before two brutal summit finishes on Alpe d\u2019Huez.<\/p>\n

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It\u2019s hard to imagine Poga\u010dar not wanting to add his name to the winner\u2019s list on arguably the Tour\u2019s most famous climb.<\/p>\n

Sunday\u2019s stage to Solaison offered a glimpse of another possibility. Rather than chasing another victory himself, Poga\u010dar sacrificed his own chances to help pace Isaac del Toro.<\/p>\n

The Mexican couldn\u2019t quite finish it off, but he climbed onto the overall podium and pulled on the white jersey.<\/p>\n

Poga\u010dar can play kingmaker and help set up Del Toro for more stage wins and a spot on the podium in Paris. UAE boss Joxean Fern\u00e1ndez Matx\u00edn told Velo<\/em> the team will try to nurse Del Toro onto the podium if it\u2019s possible without risking yellow.<\/p>\n

The Pog Show ends in Paris. Since organizers added the Montmartre circuit last year, it\u2019s his newest playground. And after Wout van Aert took the flowers last year, don\u2019t be surprise to see Pogi explode one more time.<\/p>\n

Our guess<\/strong>: Two more stage wins and his biggest yellow jersey gap ever in Paris.<\/p>\n

2. The podium just blew wide open<\/h2>\n
\"Evenepoel
Evenepoel bumped up to second overall after Vingegaard crashed out.<\/span>\u00a0(Photo: Gruber Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Vingegaard\u2019s exit created the most valuable vacancy in pro racing.<\/p>\n

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With first place already a wrap, the battle for second and third suddenly becomes the Tour\u2019s biggest race.<\/p>\n

Evenepoel inherited second place and should strengthen his advantage in Tuesday\u2019s time trial, where he could easily take another minute or more on his climbing rivals. The Red Bull star is doubly motivated to prove all his haters wrong that he can\u2019t climb deep in a grand tour. On Sunday, he proved the longer, steadier climbs suit the new-look Remco even better.<\/p>\n

Evenepoel certainly has no lock on the podium, however, so the fight should be wonderfully chaotic. Everyone is scrambling for a chance of a career.<\/p>\n

Del Toro, Florian Lipowitz, Paul Seixas and Juan Ayuso are all still dreaming of standing on the podium in Paris. Three of those four have hit top-3 in grand tours before. Seixas is the new kid in town with nothing to lose.<\/p>\n

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With five riders and two podium spots, there\u2019s not room for everyone, so the race behind Poga\u010dar is what\u2019s going to light up the week.<\/p>\n

Our guess<\/strong>: Evenepoel second, Seixas third.<\/p>\n

3. The jersey battles aren\u2019t finished yet<\/h2>\n
\"Pedersen
Pedersen is leading the green jersey going into week 3 at the Tour de France.<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Yellow looks secure. Barring a crash or illness, King Pog will reign again in Paris.<\/p>\n

The polka-dot jersey is also drifting firmly toward Poga\u010dar, unless Valentin Paret-Peintre can produce some magic in the Alps.<\/p>\n

Mads Pedersen also has a pretty solid grip on green. The Dane carries a slender 31-point advantage over Jasper Philipsen, but all he has to do is make the time cuts and challenge for the mid-stage bonus sprint, and the points jersey should be his.<\/p>\n

The white jersey, however, could become one of the best battles of the final week.<\/p>\n

Del Toro now wears white by 25 seconds over teenage sensation Seixas, with Ayuso still lurking at 1:30 back.<\/p>\n

This is about bragging rights, and whoever packs the freshest legs in the final week will decide the outcome.<\/p>\n

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Then there\u2019s the team classification, a competition many fans barely notice. Lidl-Trek still leads, but only by 3:19 over UAE Emirates-XRG. Both teams will be slotting riders into every break to chase this prestigious ranking.<\/p>\n

It doesn\u2019t mean much to anyone except the sponsors, who love to brag all year long they\u2019re the best team in the Tour de France.<\/p>\n

Our guess<\/strong>: Seixas wins white and UAE steals away the team GC.<\/p>\n

4. Desperation week begins<\/h2>\n
\"Decathlon
Only nine teams have won stages so far in the 2026 Tour de France. <\/span> (Photo: Gruber Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

This is when Tour de France tactics become wonderfully irrational. There\u2019s no more control and no one\u2019s thinking about saving the matches.<\/p>\n

Everyone will start chasing the dream stage win. Tom Pidcock still wants one and EF Education-EasyPost\u2019s Richard Carapaz has been an attacking machine.<\/p>\n

Only nine teams have won a stage so far. That leaves 14 still desperate for the one victory that can justify an entire team budget for the next 12 months.<\/p>\n

Red-Bull Bora-Hansgrohe joined the winners\u2019 club Sunday after Evenepoel\u2019s victory on Plateau de Solaison, so that means the pressure is only piling on everywhere else.<\/p>\n

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This week will be last chance saloon for the breakaways, and if the big, nearly 60-rider breakaway in stage 13 is any indication, Week 3 should be wild.<\/p>\n

After Tuesday\u2019s time trial, nearly every stage could end with a successful breakaway. A lot of that depends on what Poga\u010dar wants to do, how much UAE wants to chase the team GC, and if Decathlon-CMA GGM has the firepower to try to set up Seixas for a chance at a stage win.<\/p>\n

Nobody remembers who finished 12th in Paris, but everyone remembers who won on Alpe d\u2019Huez.<\/p>\n

Our guess<\/strong>: At least one more team gets a win, either Bahrain Victorious with Lenny Martinez, a gritty turn from Tudor Pro Cycling, or perhaps Netcompany-Ineos with a miracle ride from K\u00e9vin Vauquelin.<\/p>\n

5. Making it to Paris still matters<\/h2>\n
\"Tour
Some teams complained about the hotels, but at least each team brings its own chef. <\/span> (Photo: Gruber Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Starting the Tour is every professional cyclist\u2019s dream.<\/p>\n

But by week 3, the climbs, the time cuts, and speed hurt a little more.<\/p>\n

Yet everyone keeps slogging along. Well, not everyone. Tim Merlier already packed his bags and headed home after winning three stages.<\/p>\n

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The Tour is too big and too prestigious for everyone else to pull the plug early.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s plenty on the line for the 166 riders still in the race. A stage win or helping teammates chase GC. Others are simply honoring the race. Many know this might be their last chance to finish the world\u2019s biggest bike race.<\/p>\n

Even the sprinters, who may never see another realistic opportunity this year, will drag themselves over the Alps simply because reaching Paris still means something.<\/p>\n

And yes, there\u2019s also the small matter of the biggest party in professional cycling waiting in Paris. Nobody wants to miss that.<\/p>\n

Poga\u010dar may already own this Tour de France.<\/p>\n

So the final week belongs to everyone else.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Andrew Hood<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Updated July 21, 2026 03:23AM<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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[analyse_image type=”featured” src=”https:\/\/velo-cdn.outsideonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Z8A_2731.jpg”] Andrew Hood Updated July 21, 2026 03:23AM With Jonas Vingegaard out and Tadej Poga\u010dar holding a vise grip on the yellow jersey, the Tour de France suddenly looks all but decided. Not so fast. The finish line is in Paris and people seem to be forgetting that the hardest part of this […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[226,71],"class_list":["post-2054581","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","tag-crawlmanager","tag-velo-outsideonline-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2054581","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2054581"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2054581\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2054581"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2054581"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2054581"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}