{"id":2047611,"date":"2026-07-16T04:06:56","date_gmt":"2026-07-16T01:06:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2047611"},"modified":"2026-07-16T04:06:56","modified_gmt":"2026-07-16T01:06:56","slug":"interactive-map-predicts-climate-driven-farm-decline-by-end-of-century","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2047611","title":{"rendered":"Interactive map predicts climate-driven farm decline by end of century"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/83\/53\/22\/1200x675_cmsv2_23c4c424-dc70-5ab2-8a5b-722972cf6bd5-9835322.jpg&#8221;]<\/p>\n<article id=\"abe-2910532-pos1-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1\" data-nid=\"2910532\" data-cid=\"9841538\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2910532-label-pos1-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" 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city of Penco\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2910532-pos1-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2\" data-nid=\"2910532\" data-cid=\"9841538\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2910532-label-pos1-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/84\/14\/10\/189x106_cmsv2_3a6d027f-b4b1-5766-98f1-343f720088b2-9841410.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"New York shrouded in smoke from Atlanta wildfires\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Health news<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Smoke, warnings and masks: New York braces for the final\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2910527-pos2-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2\" data-nid=\"2910527\" data-cid=\"9841552\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2910527-label-pos2-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/84\/13\/69\/189x106_cmsv2_17946f1f-2352-560c-95d0-9cfff371149b-9841369.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Two firefighters struggle to put out the flames.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Europe News<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Arag\u00f3n ablaze: Zaragoza wildfire scorches 12,000 hectares\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2910331-pos3-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2\" data-nid=\"2910331\" data-cid=\"9840440\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2910331-label-pos3-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/84\/04\/40\/189x106_cmsv2_a1ce59bb-b03a-5167-9b06-9a8a68438fe1-9840440.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Volunteers clearing up Greece&apos;s polluted beaches.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Earth News<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Inside the &#8216;Typhoon Project&#8217; to clean-up Greece&#8217;s polluted beaches\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2910526-pos4-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--has-video\" data-nid=\"2910526\" data-cid=\"9841356\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2910526-label-pos4-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/84\/13\/56\/189x106_cmsv2_24d2a3f0-0134-56b2-a050-785a3b731c20-9841356.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Flooded street in downtown Penco\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    No Comment<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Chile assesses damage after deadly storm surge floods coastal city of Penco\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"helper-site-row o-article-newsy\">\n<div class=\"helper-site-container o-article-newsy__container\">\n<div class=\"o-article-newsy__main\">\n<header class=\"h-grid o-article-newsy__main__header\">\n<nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumbs\" class=\"c-article-breadcrumbs\">\n<div id=\"adb-article-breadcrumb\" class=\"c-article-breadcrumbs__list\">\n<p>                          Earth<\/p>\n<p>                          Earth News<\/p><\/div>\n<\/nav>\n<h1 class=\"c-article-redesign-title\">\n                            Interactive map predicts climate-driven farm decline by end of century<\/h1>\n<div class=\"c-article-image-video u-position-relative \">\n<div class=\"js-superdiv u-aspect-ratio-16x9 u-position-relative \" data-sponsored=\"Partner content\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"js-poster-img c-article-media__img\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/83\/53\/22\/1536x864_cmsv2_23c4c424-dc70-5ab2-8a5b-722972cf6bd5-9835322.jpg\" width=\"1536\" height=\"864\" loading=\"eager\" alt=\"Projected loss of agricultural output due to climate change\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-caption u-position-absolute\"><i id=\"article-caption-content\" class=\"c-article-caption__content\"><span class=\"c-article-caption__text\"><br \/>\n              Projected loss of agricultural productivity due to climate change<br \/>\n                    <span class=\"u-color-white\">&#8211;\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"c-article-caption__copyright\">Copyright\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"c-article-caption__credit\">CADI<\/span><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-image-copyright c-article-image-copyright--novideo\">\n      Copyright\u00a0CADI\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"h-grid o-article-newsy__main__body u-article-content\">\n<div class=\"o-article-newsy__contributors-publication-date\">\n<div class=\"c-article-contributors\">\n  By&amp;nbspJes\u00fas Maturana\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-publication-date\" data-timestamp=\"1784089856\">\n                    Published on                 <time datetime=\"2026-07-15 06:30:56 +02:00\">15\/07\/2026 &#8211; 6:30 GMT+2<\/time><span class=\"c-article-publication-date__bullet\">\u2022<\/span>Updated<br \/>\n                                     <time datetime=\"2026-07-16 13:34:58 +02:00\">16\/07\/2026 &#8211; 13:34 GMT+2<\/time><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-share-comment u-align-items-center u-display-flex\"><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__links u-align-items-center u-display-flex u-justify-content-center js-c-article-share-comment-share\"><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__label\">Share<\/span><\/span><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__label\">Comments<\/span><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__label c-article-share-comment__label--always\">Add Euronews on Google<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-share-comment-popup-overlay js-c-article-share-comment-popup-overlay u-display-none\">\n<div id=\"js-c-article-share-comment-popup\" class=\"c-article-share-comment-popup js-c-article-share-comment-popup\">\n<div class=\"c-article-share-comment-popup__header u-display-flex\"><span>Share<\/span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/icon-close.svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" alt=\"Close Button\" class=\"u-cursor-pointer js-c-article-share-comment-close\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/div>\n<div 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alt=\"bluesky\" loading=\"lazy\"><span>Bluesky<\/span><\/span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-bluesky.svg\" width=\"48\" height=\"48\" alt=\"bluesky\" class=\"u-show-for-desktop\" loading=\"lazy\"><span class=\"u-display-flex u-gap-1 u-show-for-mobile-only\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-threads.svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" alt=\"threads\" loading=\"lazy\"><span>Threads<\/span><\/span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-threads.svg\" width=\"48\" height=\"48\" alt=\"threads\" class=\"u-show-for-desktop\" loading=\"lazy\"><span class=\"u-display-flex u-gap-1 u-show-for-mobile-only\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-whatsapp.svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" alt=\"whatsapp\" loading=\"lazy\"><span>Whatsapp<\/span><\/span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-whatsapp.svg\" width=\"48\" height=\"48\" alt=\"whatsapp\" class=\"u-show-for-desktop\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"c-article-summary\">\n        A CSIC team in Barcelona has developed CADI, a platform that forecasts, on a 10\u2011kilometre grid, how much farmland will lose productivity to climate change by 2100; Spain\u2019s interior fares worse than the Cantabrian coast.<br \/>\n    <\/h2>\n<div class=\"c-article-content c-article-content--earth js-article-content\">\n<p>A team at the Institute for Economic Analysis (IAE), a centre under Spain\u2019s National Research Council (CSIC), has developed a tool that can predict, with a resolution of 9.3 by 9.3 kilometres, how the planet will gradually lose its capacity to produce food as climate change advances.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"c-ad u-show-for-mobile-only\">\n<div class=\"c-ad__placeholder\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"c-ad__placeholder__logo\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/logos\/logo-euronews-stacked-outlined-72x72-grey-9.svg\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" alt loading=\"lazy\"><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-ad u-show-for-desktop\">\n<div class=\"c-ad__placeholder\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"c-ad__placeholder__logo\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/logos\/logo-euronews-stacked-outlined-72x72-grey-9.svg\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" alt loading=\"lazy\"><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Its name is CADI, the English acronym for Climate-Induced Agricultural Decline Index, and its function is easy to explain, though not to calculate: <strong>it compares how much a plot of land could yield under different climatic conditions<\/strong>, keeping fixed the crops that were already being grown in 2020. This isolates the pure effect of climate, without mixing it with human decisions about what to plant or how to adapt.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>How the model works<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The platform (CADI <em>(source in Spanish)<\/em>), coordinated by Laura Mayoral and Hannes Mueller, who are also affiliated to the Barcelona School of Economics, has been developed in cooperation with the Centre for Economic Policy Research, the UK Foreign Office and an initiative focused on conflicts arising from economic crises.<\/p>\n<p>The starting point is two data sources: historical agricultural yields from the FAO and climate records from the European Copernicus programme. Using these, <strong>the team reconstructs what changed between 1981\u20132000 and 2001\u20132020, and from there projects<\/strong>, under the different scenarios used by the IPCC, how that same variable will evolve through to the end of the century.<\/p>\n<p>The premise, crucial for interpreting the results, is that no adaptation measures are introduced: the aim is to see what would happen if everything stayed the same except the climate.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Winners and losers, including within Spain<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The data already observed, not projected, show that one in six of the world\u2019s croplands has lost more than 10% of its potential productivity over the last two decades compared with the previous two.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The distribution of those losses is highly uneven<\/strong>: the tropics bear the brunt of the damage, while some high-latitude areas gain ground, although they start from such low levels of production that these percentage increases hardly translate into more actual calories.<\/p>\n<p>In Europe the familiar north\u2013south pattern is repeated: Scandinavia, Scotland and the Alps improve their agricultural potential, while the south of the continent loses it.<\/p>\n<p>Spain is no exception to that rule, but it is not uniform inside its own borders.<\/p>\n<p>As Mueller explains, the Cantabrian coast, <strong>Galicia and the Pyrenees gain productivity<\/strong>, while <strong>much of the interior and the centre-east of the peninsula sees declines<\/strong>, with pockets of particularly severe losses. In a sense, it is the same imbalance seen at the planetary scale, reproduced within the country\u2019s borders.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>What it means for the next generation<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>At present, 15% of the world\u2019s population already lives in areas where agricultural potential has fallen by at least 5%. If warming follows a medium-high trajectory, with around an additional 2.1\u00b0C between now and mid-century, that figure could soar to almost half of the planet\u2019s inhabitants between 2041 and 2060.<\/p>\n<p>The model also points to the problem becoming highly concentrated: barely 5% of tropical land already accounts for 35% of all recorded losses, and only about a quarter of countries are expected to bear 85\u201390% of global damage by mid-century.<\/p>\n<p>The researchers stress a nuance that is often overlooked: <strong>even where productivity rises, tensions appear<\/strong>. These gains force land, water and investment to be shifted towards new areas within the same country, which can generate frictions between regions that until now did not compete for those resources.<\/p>\n<p>On top of this comes a deeper injustice highlighted by the study: the countries that have emitted the least greenhouse gases throughout history are among the most exposed to these losses, and that gap is set to widen.<\/p>\n<p>For its authors, CADI\u2019s value lies not only in its diagnosis but in its <strong>practical use<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>It makes it possible to identify in advance which areas will need support to adapt<\/li>\n<li>New crops<\/li>\n<li>Technology<\/li>\n<li>Relocating production<\/li>\n<li>Channelling resources before falling yields translate into lower rural incomes, greater food insecurity or population movements forced by a lack of alternatives.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>You can visit the project here <em>(source in Spanish)<\/em> and explore the two types of projections made, in 20-year steps from 2020 to 2100, on how agricultural production will evolve by region and how the climate will change.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"adb-c-mention-original-translation\" class=\"c-mention-original-translation c-mention-original-translation--earth\">\n<aside>This text was translated with the help of artificial intelligence and originally published in\u00a0Spanish    <\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<p>                          Go to accessibility shortcuts<\/p>\n<div class=\"c-article-share-comment u-align-items-center u-display-flex\"><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__links u-align-items-center u-display-flex u-justify-content-center js-c-article-share-comment-share\"><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__label\">Share<\/span><\/span><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__label\">Comments<\/span><span class=\"c-article-share-comment__label c-article-share-comment__label--always\">Add Euronews on Google<\/span><\/div>\n<div id=\"adb-article-you-might-also-like\" 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u-show-for-mobile-only\">\n<div class=\"c-ad__placeholder\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"c-ad__placeholder__logo\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/logos\/logo-euronews-stacked-outlined-72x72-grey-9.svg\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" alt><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"adb-article-top-stories\" class=\"perf-cv-auto c-top-stories\">\n<h2 class=\"c-top-stories__title\">Top stories<\/h2>\n<div class=\"c-top-stories__item\">\n<article id=\"abe-2910337-pos2-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2910337\" data-cid=\"9840453\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2910337-label-pos2-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/84\/04\/53\/320x180_cmsv2_93b08ed6-4fee-5d83-bafb-229f5e2f35e6-9840453.jpg\" 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id=\"abe-2882713-pos5-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2882713\" data-cid=\"9705364\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2882713-label-pos5-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/70\/53\/64\/320x180_cmsv2_ec7bdbe4-5ab3-53db-a8fa-f0d293e36093-9705364.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Mark Munyua, CP solar&apos;s technician, examines solar panels on the roof of a company in Nairobi, Kenya, Friday, Sept. 1, 2023\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    How solar has saved Europe \u20ac20 billion since the war on Iran began<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2909976-pos6-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2909976\" data-cid=\"9838490\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2909976-label-pos6-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/83\/84\/90\/320x180_cmsv2_aa064279-aa1f-5c55-94be-a03d77344ef8-9838490.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"In this July 31, 2019, photo, commuters are seen through the window of an overcrowded train during morning rush hours at Kiba Station in Tokyo\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Tokyo workers told to wear shorts to work to save on AC<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2909298-pos1-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--has-related the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2909298\" data-cid=\"9835333\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    The map predicting agricultural decline from climate change<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2909976-pos2-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2909976\" data-cid=\"9838490\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Tokyo workers told to wear shorts to work to save on AC<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2910067-pos3-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--has-video the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2910067\" data-cid=\"9839017\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    How scientists forecast heatwaves<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2882713-pos4-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--has-related the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2882713\" data-cid=\"9705364\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    How solar has saved Europe \u20ac20 billion since the war on Iran began<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2910029-pos5-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2910029\" data-cid=\"9838763\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Fontainebleau: Birthplace of nature tourism saved by firefighters<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<div class=\"articleBody\" data-key=\"articleBody\">A team at the Institute for Economic Analysis (IAE), a centre under Spain\u2019s National Research Council (CSIC), has developed a tool that can predict, with a resolution of 9.3 by 9.3 kilometres, how the planet will gradually lose its capacity to produce food as climate change advances.Its name is CADI, the English acronym for Climate-Induced Agricultural Decline Index, and its function is easy to explain, though not to calculate: it compares how much a plot of land could yield under different climatic conditions, keeping fixed the crops that were already being grown in 2020. This isolates the pure effect of climate, without mixing it with human decisions about what to plant or how to adapt.How the model worksThe platform (CADI (source in Spanish)), coordinated by Laura Mayoral and Hannes Mueller, who are also affiliated to the Barcelona School of Economics, has been developed in cooperation with the Centre for Economic Policy Research, the UK Foreign Office and an initiative focused on conflicts arising from economic crises.The starting point is two data sources: historical agricultural yields from the FAO and climate records from the European Copernicus programme. Using these, the team reconstructs what changed between 1981\u20132000 and 2001\u20132020, and from there projects, under the different scenarios used by the IPCC, how that same variable will evolve through to the end of the century.The premise, crucial for interpreting the results, is that no adaptation measures are introduced: the aim is to see what would happen if everything stayed the same except the climate.Winners and losers, including within SpainThe data already observed, not projected, show that one in six of the world\u2019s croplands has lost more than 10% of its potential productivity over the last two decades compared with the previous two.The distribution of those losses is highly uneven: the tropics bear the brunt of the damage, while some high-latitude areas gain ground, although they start from such low levels of production that these percentage increases hardly translate into more actual calories.In Europe the familiar north\u2013south pattern is repeated: Scandinavia, Scotland and the Alps improve their agricultural potential, while the south of the continent loses it.Spain is no exception to that rule, but it is not uniform inside its own borders.As Mueller explains, the Cantabrian coast, Galicia and the Pyrenees gain productivity, while much of the interior and the centre-east of the peninsula sees declines, with pockets of particularly severe losses. In a sense, it is the same imbalance seen at the planetary scale, reproduced within the country\u2019s borders.What it means for the next generationAt present, 15% of the world\u2019s population already lives in areas where agricultural potential has fallen by at least 5%. If warming follows a medium-high trajectory, with around an additional 2.1\u00b0C between now and mid-century, that figure could soar to almost half of the planet\u2019s inhabitants between 2041 and 2060.The model also points to the problem becoming highly concentrated: barely 5% of tropical land already accounts for 35% of all recorded losses, and only about a quarter of countries are expected to bear 85\u201390% of global damage by mid-century.The researchers stress a nuance that is often overlooked: even where productivity rises, tensions appear. These gains force land, water and investment to be shifted towards new areas within the same country, which can generate frictions between regions that until now did not compete for those resources.On top of this comes a deeper injustice highlighted by the study: the countries that have emitted the least greenhouse gases throughout history are among the most exposed to these losses, and that gap is set to widen.For its authors, CADI\u2019s value lies not only in its diagnosis but in its practical use:It makes it possible to identify in advance which areas will need support to adaptNew cropsTechnologyRelocating productionChannelling resources before falling yields translate into lower rural incomes, greater food insecurity or population movements forced by a lack of alternatives.You can visit the project here (source in Spanish) and explore the two types of projections made, in 20-year steps from 2020 to 2100, on how agricultural production will evolve by region and how the climate will change.<\/div>\n<p>[analyse_source url=&#8221;https:\/\/www.euronews.com\/2026\/07\/16\/interactive-map-predicts-climate-driven-farm-decline-by-end-of-century&#8221;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/83\/53\/22\/1200x675_cmsv2_23c4c424-dc70-5ab2-8a5b-722972cf6bd5-9835322.jpg&#8221;] Health news Smoke, warnings and masks: New York braces for the final Europe News Arag\u00f3n ablaze: Zaragoza wildfire scorches 12,000 hectares Earth News Inside the &#8216;Typhoon Project&#8217; to clean-up Greece&#8217;s polluted beaches No Comment Chile assesses damage after deadly storm surge floods coastal city of Penco Health news Smoke, warnings and masks: [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[90],"tags":[226,36],"class_list":["post-2047611","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-international","tag-crawlmanager","tag-euronews-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2047611","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2047611"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2047611\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2047611"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2047611"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2047611"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}