{"id":2046023,"date":"2026-07-16T01:50:37","date_gmt":"2026-07-15T22:50:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2046023"},"modified":"2026-07-16T01:50:37","modified_gmt":"2026-07-15T22:50:37","slug":"halfway-through-the-tour-de-france-how-does-pogacar-compare-historically","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2046023","title":{"rendered":"Halfway Through the Tour de France, How Does Poga\u010dar Compare Historically?"},"content":{"rendered":"

[analyse_image type=”featured” src=”https:\/\/velo-cdn.outsideonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/GettyImages-2286211954.jpg”]<\/p>\n

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Shane Stokes<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Updated July 15, 2026 08:31PM<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The riders crossed an important threshold on Wednesday, clicking over to the second half of the Tour de France. Eleven stages are done, ten stages now remain and the race will ramp up in intensity as the riders draw closer and closer to Paris.<\/p>\n

A clear pattern has emerged by now: Tadej Poga\u010dar, the defending champion, appears to be far ahead of the rest in terms of performance. Things could yet change\u2014nothing is guaranteed at the Tour, after all\u2014but the signs are ominous.<\/p>\n

Poga\u010dar first took yellow on stage 3 but then relinquished it the following day, with he and his UAE Emirates-XRG team happy to see it pass to Torstein Tr\u00e6en (Uno-X Mobility).<\/p>\n

The world champion then recaptured it when he won stage 6 to Gavarnie-G\u00e8dre and has held it ever since.<\/p>\n

At this point in the race, 11 stages down, 10 to go, Poga\u010dar is 3:36 ahead of Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) and 4:06 ahead of Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe).<\/p>\n

So how does that compare?<\/p>\n

V\u00e9lo<\/i> has crunched the numbers from the past 10 editions to see what this halfway point lead means.<\/p>\n

The takeaway?<\/p>\n

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Going by the recent history of the race, Poga\u010dar is in a very commanding position, and not just in relation to the gap he currently enjoys.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s get into it.<\/p>\n

Dissecting the data<\/h2>\n
\"The
The 2026 Tour has reached stage 11, just past the halfway point (Photo: Dario Belingheri\/Getty Images)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

First off, a disclaimer.<\/p>\n

Tour routes vary every single year. The mountains can come early some years, later in others. So too time trials and team time trials.<\/p>\n

Comparing individual races at an arbitrary point is therefore a rough guide: some editions may have been more difficult early on than others, some less so.<\/p>\n

The 2026 race did feature a team time trial early on, enabling time gaps to be established on the opening day. It also had the first big summit finish on stage 6, plus other testing days such as Tuesday\u2019s race to Le Lioran.<\/p>\n

It is however back-loaded: the majority of the climbing comes in the final week, with the biggest differences likely to be made there.<\/p>\n

Still, Poga\u010dar has been already able to open a commanding advantage over Vingegaard and the rest.<\/p>\n

How does that stat compare to previous years?<\/p>\n

Largest midrace gap:<\/h2>\n
\"Jonas
Jonas Vingegaard, Tadej Pogacar and Rigoberto Uran during the 2021 Tour. (Photo: Anne-Christine Poujoulat \/ AFP)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Poga\u010dar\u2019s advantage over the second-placed rider on stage 11 is the second-biggest of any rider in the period from 2016.<\/p>\n

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The largest at this point was his 5:18 lead over Rigoberto Uran (EF Education \u2013 Nippo) in 2021. Vingegaard was sitting third at that point, 5:32 back, and actually reduced that deficit in the second half of the race to 5:20. That put him second overall in the final standings.<\/p>\n

The next largest mid-race advantage? The more modest 1:25 advantage enjoyed by Geraint Thomas in 2018.<\/p>\n

Largest midrace gap: <\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. 2021: Tadej Poga\u010dar over Rigoberto Uran: 5:18<\/li>\n
  2. 2026: Tadej Poga\u010dar over Jonas Vingegaard: 3:36<\/li>\n
  3. 2018: Geraint Thomas over Chris Froome: 1:25<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Smallest midrace gap:<\/h2>\n
    \"Tadej
    Tadej Poga\u010dar and Jonas Vingegaard have had an epic rivalry (Photo: Jeff Pachoud \/ AFP)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

    Vingegaard and Poga\u010dar also feature when the smallest stage 11 advantage is calculated.<\/p>\n

    That was the Dane\u2019s 17 second advantage over Poga\u010dar in 2023.<\/p>\n

    Things were very tight at that point, but that close margin wasn\u2019t a true representation of the physiological gap between them. The second half of the race would see Vingegaard accelerate and pull further and further ahead. That far stronger second half should give the Dane hope that he can yet distance his main rival and win overall.<\/p>\n

    Smallest midrace gap: <\/strong><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. 2023: Jonas Vingegaard over Tadej Poga\u010dar: 17 seconds<\/li>\n
    2. 2017: Chris Froome over Fabio Aru: 18 seconds<\/li>\n
    3. 2020: Primo\u017e Rogic over Egan Bernal: 21 seconds<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Relationship between midrace gaps and final podium:<\/h2>\n
      \"(L-R)
      (L-R) Tadej Pogacar, Mads Pedersen, Jonas Vingegaard on stage 11 of this year\u2019s Tour de France (Photo: Dario Belingheri\/Getty Images)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

      In the majority of ten Tours examined, the midrace standings had a very clear correlation with the final GC.<\/p>\n

      The leader after stage 11 went on to win 70 percent of the time.<\/p>\n

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      The only exceptions were Julian Alaphilippe in 2019, Primo\u017e Rogli\u010d in 2020 and Ben Healy last year.<\/p>\n

      On every other occasion the rider who was in yellow at that point went on to lift the final trophy a week and a half later.<\/p>\n

      That puts Poga\u010dar well on course to take a record-equaling fifth Tour win.<\/p>\n

      But what about the other riders who historically occupied the podium slots after stage 11?<\/p>\n

      Well, there isn\u2019t a rock solid correlation between those in second and third at the halfway point and the final runners-up by the end of the Tour.<\/p>\n

      Indeed in only two out of the past 10 editions have seen each of the riders who were in the top three at the halfway point also been the same trio celebrating at the end of the race.<\/p>\n

      The first of those was Geraint Thomas, Chris Froome and Tom Dumoulin in 2018, with Dumoulin moving from third to second by Paris.<\/p>\n

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      The second trio to remain in the podium positions were Poga\u010dar, Vingegaard and Evenepoel in 2024.<\/p>\n

      And the rest? One, sometimes both, of the top three would slip back on all other occasions.<\/p>\n

      Vingegaard and Evenepoel should take nothing for granted.<\/p>\n

      \u00a0<\/p>\n

      Biggest final GC advantages:<\/h2>\n
      \"A
      A huge crowd turned out to greet Jonas Vingegaard in Copenhagen following his 2023 Tour victory (Photo: Ole Jensen\/Getty Images)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

      Poga\u010dar and Vingegaard\u2019s duels have produced the biggest final winning margins of recent years.<\/p>\n

      The largest was Vingegaard\u2019s vanquishing of his big rival in 2023: he was 7:29 in front in Paris.<\/p>\n

      As mentioned above, Vingegaard was just 17 seconds ahead at the halfway point.<\/p>\n

      However he hammered the entire field in the stage 16 time trial and then put minutes into Poga\u010dar on the following stage to Courchevel.<\/p>\n

      He reached Paris a whopping 7:29 ahead, which is the largest margin between them in their five-Tour rivalry to date.<\/p>\n

      Poga\u010dar replied the following year to pummel his rival by 6:17. Not quite as dominant, but he did take six stage wins in the race and also won the Giro and the worlds.<\/p>\n

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      Largest gaps in final GC:<\/strong><\/p>\n

        \n
      1. 2023: Jonas Vinegaard ahead of Tadej Poga\u010dar: 7:29<\/li>\n
      2. 2024: Tadej Poga\u010dar ahead of Jonas Vingegaard: 6:17<\/li>\n
      3. 2021: Tadej Poga\u010dar ahead of Jonas Vingegaard: 5:20<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        \u00a0<\/p>\n

        Smallest final advantages:<\/h2>\n
        \"The
        The battle between Chris Froome and Rigoberto Uran during the 2017 Tour was the tightest in recent years (Photo: Chris Graythen\/Getty Images)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

        Things were far closer several years ago. In 2017 Chris Froome was locked in a tight tussle with Romain Bardet and Rigoberto Uran. However he extended his advantage slightly in the stage 19 time trial, ending the Tour 54 seconds clear of Ur\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

        Three years after that, Poga\u010dar\u2019s last-gasp overhaul of Primo\u017e Rogli\u010d set him up for his first Tour win, and also his tightest.<\/p>\n

        That came a year after Egan Bernal won his Tour just over a minute ahead of his-then teammate Geraint Thomas.<\/p>\n

        Smallest winning margins:<\/strong><\/p>\n

        1, 2017: Chris Froome ahead of Rigoberto Ur\u00e1n: 54 seconds
        \n2, 2020: Tadej Poga\u010dar ahead of Primo\u017e Rogli\u010d: 59 seconds
        \n3, 2019: Egan Bernal ahead of Geraint Thomas: 1:11<\/p>\n

        Tour takeaways<\/h2>\n
        \"Tadej
        Tadej Poga\u010dar has been untroubled thus far by the other GC riders (Photo: Gruber Images)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

        As the stats show, Poga\u010dar\u2019s position atop the leaderboard bodes very for his chances of winning the race outright in Paris.<\/p>\n

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        The margin of his advantage also looks promising, being the second-largest midrace gap out of those past 10 editions.<\/p>\n

        However Poga\u010dar won\u2019t start celebrating just yet.<\/p>\n

        There\u2019s still a long way to go to Paris and plenty of big mountains to climb and descend.<\/p>\n

        He knows he will need to avoid injury, illness and the sort of dramatic collapses he endured in 2022 and 2023 to seal the deal and join the five-time Tour de France winners in the record books.<\/p>\n

        Tour de France GC after stage 11 and final overall standings:<\/h2>\n

        2016<\/strong><\/h3>\n

        Stage 11:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

        1 Chris Froome (Team Sky)
        \n2 Adam Yates (Orica-BikeExchange) at 28 secs
        \n3 Dan Martin (Etixx-Quick Step) at 31 secs<\/p>\n

        Other:<\/p>\n

        6 Romain Bardet (Ag2r La Mondiale) at 56 secs
        \n4 Nairo Quintana (Movistar Team) at 35 secs<\/p>\n

        Final GC:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

        1 Chris Froome (Team Sky)
        \n2 Romain Bardet (Ag2r La Mondiale) at 4:05
        \n3 Nairo Quintana (Movistar Team) at 4:21<\/p>\n

        \u00a0<\/p>\n

        2017<\/h3>\n

        Stage 11:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

        1 Chris Froome (Team Sky)
        \n2 Fabio Aru (Astana Pro Team) at 18 secs
        \n3 Romain Bardet (Ag2r La Mondiale) at 51 secs<\/p>\n

        Other:<\/p>\n

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        4 Rigoberto Uran (Cannondale-Drapac Pro Cycling Team) at 55 secs<\/p>\n

        Final GC:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

        1 Chris Froome 86:20:55
        \n2 Rigoberto Uran, at 54 secs
        \n3 Romain Bardet, at 2:20<\/p>\n

        2018<\/h3>\n

        Stage 11:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

        1 Geraint Thomas (Team Sky)
        \n2 Chris Froome (Team Sky) at 1:25
        \n3 Tom Dumoulin (Team Sunweb) at 1:44<\/p>\n

        Final GC:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

        1 Geraint Thomas
        \n2 Tom Dumoulin, at 1:51
        \n3 Chris Froome, at 2:24<\/p>\n

        2019<\/h3>\n

        Stage 11:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

        1 Julien Alaphilippe (Deceunick Quick-Step)
        \n2 Geraint Thomas (Team Ineos) at 1:12
        \n3 Egan Bernal (Team Ineos) at 1:16<\/p>\n

        Other:<\/p>\n

        4 Steven Kruijswijk (Team Jumbo-Visma) at 1:27<\/p>\n

        Final GC:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

        1 Egan Bernal
        \n2 Geraint Thomas, at 1:11
        \n3 Steven Kruijswijk, at 1:31<\/p>\n

        2020<\/h3>\n

        Stage 11:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

        1 Primo\u017e Rogli\u010d (Team Jumbo-Visma)
        \n2 Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers) at 21
        \n3 Guillaume Martin (Cofidis) at 28<\/p>\n

        Other:<\/p>\n

        7 Tadej Poga\u010dar (UAE Team Emirates) at 44
        \n11 Richie Porte (Trek-Segafredo) at 1:53<\/p>\n

        Final GC:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

        1 Tadej Poga\u010dar
        \n2 Primo\u017e Rogli\u010d, at 59 secs
        \n3 Richie Porte, at 3:30<\/p>\n

        2021<\/h3>\n

        Stage 11:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

        1 Tadej Poga\u010dar (UAE Team Emirates)
        \n2 Rigoberto Uran (EF Education \u2013 Nippo) at 5:18
        \n3 Jonas Vingegaard (Team Jumbo-Visma) at 5:32<\/p>\n

        Other:<\/p>\n

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        4 Richard Carapaz (Ineos Grenadiers) at 5:33<\/p>\n

        Final GC:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

        1 Tadej Poga\u010dar
        \n2 Jonas Vingegaard at 5:20
        \n3 Richard Carapaz (Ineos Grenadiers) at 7:03<\/p>\n

        2022<\/h3>\n

        Stage 11:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

        1 Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)
        \n2 Nairo Quintana (Team Ark\u00e9a Samsic) at 59 (later declassified)
        \n2 Romain Bardet (Team DSM) at 1:10
        \n3 Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers) at 1:38<\/p>\n

        Other:<\/p>\n

        6 Tadej Poga\u010dar (UAE Team Emirates) at 2:51<\/p>\n

        Final GC:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

        1 Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)
        \n2 Tadej Poga\u010dar (UAE Team Emirates) at 2:43
        \n3 Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers) at 7:22<\/p>\n

        2023<\/h3>\n

        Stage 11:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

        1 Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)
        \n2 Tadej Poga\u010dar (UAE Team Emirates) at 17
        \n3 Jai Hindley (Bora-Hansgrohe) at 2:40<\/p>\n

        Other:<\/p>\n

        6 Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates) at 4:39<\/p>\n

        Final GC:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

        1 Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)
        \n2 Tadej Poga\u010dar (UAE Team Emirates) at 7:29
        \n3 Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates) at 10:56<\/p>\n

        2024<\/h3>\n

        Stage 11:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

        1 Tadej Poga\u010dar (UAE Team Emirates)
        \n2 Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) at 1:06
        \n3 Jonas Vingegaard (Team Visma-Lease a Bike) at 1:14<\/p>\n

        Final GC:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

        1 Tadej Poga\u010dar (UAE Team Emirates)
        \n2 Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) at 6:17
        \n3 Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) at 9:18<\/p>\n

        2025<\/h3>\n

        Stage 11:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

        1 Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost)
        \n2 Tadej Poga\u010dar (UAE Emirates-XRG) at 29
        \n3 Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) at 1:29<\/p>\n

        Other:<\/p>\n

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        4 Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) at 1:46
        \n8 Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) at 3:34<\/p>\n

        Final GC:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

        1 Tadej Poga\u010dar (UAE Emirates-XRG)
        \n2 Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) at 4:24
        \n3 Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) at 11:00<\/p>\n

        \u00a0<\/p>\n