{"id":2044393,"date":"2026-07-13T09:54:58","date_gmt":"2026-07-13T06:54:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2044393"},"modified":"2026-07-13T09:54:58","modified_gmt":"2026-07-13T06:54:58","slug":"inflatia-a-depasit-varful-si-ar-putea-cobori-spre-6-pana-la-finalul-anului-concordia-romanii-au-pierdut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2044393","title":{"rendered":"Infla\u021bia a dep\u0103\u0219it v\u00e2rful \u0219i ar putea cobor\u00ee spre 6% p\u00e2n\u0103 la finalul anului. Concordia: Rom\u00e2nii au pierdut&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/cdn.adh.reperio.news\/image-e\/ec1c95b9-9ce3-43af-bdd5-13914c8100be\/index.jpeg?p=f%3Djpeg%26w%3D1200%26h%3D630%26r%3Dcover&#8221;]<\/p>\n<article class=\"svelte-63r2dw\">\n<nav>\n<ul class=\"breadcrump svelte-1j3umxo\">\n<li class=\"svelte-1j3umxo\"><a href=\"\/\" title=\"Adev\u0103rul\" class=\"svelte-1j3umxo\">Home<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"svelte-1j3umxo\"><a href=\"\/economie\" class=\"svelte-1j3umxo\">Economie<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"svelte-1j3umxo\"><a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/economie\/inflatia-a-depasit-varful-si-ar-putea-cobori-spre-2542812.html\" class=\"svelte-1j3umxo\">Infla\u021bia a dep\u0103\u0219it v\u00e2rful \u0219i ar putea cobor\u00ee spre 6% p\u00e2n\u0103 la finalul anului. Concordia: Rom\u00e2nii au pierdut deja din puterea de cump\u0103rare<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/nav>\n<p><main class=\"svelte-63r2dw\"><\/p>\n<p>Infla\u021bia din Rom\u00e2nia pare s\u0103 fi trecut de punctul maxim, iar urm\u0103toarele luni ar putea aduce o sc\u0103dere rapid\u0103 a ritmului de cre\u0219tere a pre\u021burilor. Rata anual\u0103 a infla\u021biei a cobor\u00e2t \u00een iunie 2026 la 10,4%, dup\u0103 ce \u00een luna mai atinsese cel mai ridicat nivel din ultimii trei ani, de 10,9%.<\/p>\n<div class=\"container-image  svelte-jd4qiv\"><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.adh.reperio.news\/image-e\/ec1c95b9-9ce3-43af-bdd5-13914c8100be\/index.jpeg?p=a%3D1%26co%3D1.05%26w%3D1400%26h%3D735%26r%3Dcontain%26f%3Dwebp 1400w\" media=\"(min-width: 1400px)\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"caption\">Infla\u021bia a dep\u0103\u0219it v\u00e2rful \u0219i ar putea cobor\u00ee spre 6% p\u00e2n\u0103 la finalul anului. Foto arhiv\u0103<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Analiza Confedera\u021biei Patronale Concordia arat\u0103 c\u0103 v\u00e2rful infla\u021biei ar fi fost dep\u0103\u0219it, iar \u00een a doua parte a anului t<a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/economie\/inflatia-a-scazut-usor-in-iunie-ce-produse-au-2542757.html\" target=\"_blank\">rendul ar urma s\u0103 se inverseze<\/a>. Estim\u0103rile indic\u0103 o reducere a ratei anuale spre aproximativ 7% \u00een lunile iulie-august \u0219i spre 6% p\u00e2n\u0103 la finalul anului.<\/p>\n<p>Sc\u0103derea infla\u021biei ar reprezenta o gur\u0103 de oxigen pentru economie, dup\u0103 o perioad\u0103 \u00een care cre\u0219terile de pre\u021buri au afectat puternic consumul, \u00eencrederea popula\u021biei \u0219i puterea de cump\u0103rare.<\/p>\n<h2>Energia, serviciile \u0219i carburan\u021bii au alimentat valul de scumpiri<\/h2>\n<p>Infla\u021bia ridicat\u0103 din ultimele luni a avut mai multe surse, \u00eens\u0103 serviciile au devenit principalul factor de presiune asupra pre\u021burilor.<\/p>\n<p>Potrivit analizei Concordia, la finalul lunii iunie 2026, serviciile au avut cea mai mare contribu\u021bie la rata anual\u0103 a infla\u021biei, cu 2,8 puncte procentuale. Pe locul urm\u0103tor s-au aflat gazele, electricitatea \u0219i energia termic\u0103, cu o contribu\u021bie de 2,3 puncte procentuale, urmate de alimente.<\/p>\n<p>Evolu\u021bia arat\u0103 c\u0103 infla\u021bia nu mai este alimentat\u0103 doar de factori temporari, ci s-a extins \u00een mai multe zone ale economiei.<\/p>\n<p>La acest tablou s-a ad\u0103ugat \u0219i cre\u0219terea rapid\u0103 a contribu\u021biei carburan\u021bilor, \u00eencep\u00e2nd din martie, pe fondul tensiunilor geopolitice generate de r\u0103zboiul din Iran.<\/p>\n<h2>Sc\u0103derea infla\u021biei ar putea deschide calea reducerii dob\u00e2nzilor<\/h2>\n<p>Concordia estimeaz\u0103 c\u0103 infla\u021bia ar putea cobor\u00ee rapid \u00een lunile urm\u0103toare, pe m\u0103sur\u0103 ce dispar efectele unor major\u0103ri de taxe \u0219i ale cre\u0219terii pre\u021burilor la energie \u0219i carburan\u021bi.<\/p>\n<p>O rat\u0103 anual\u0103 a infla\u021biei de aproximativ 6% la finalul lui 2026 ar fi apropiat\u0103 de \u021binta de 5,5% asumat\u0103 de Banca Na\u021bional\u0103 a Rom\u00e2niei.<\/p>\n<p>Un astfel de nivel ar putea \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u021bi \u00eencrederea consumatorilor \u0219i a mediului de afaceri \u0219i ar putea crea condi\u021biile pentru o eventual\u0103 reducere a dob\u00e2nzii de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 de c\u0103tre BNR.<\/p>\n<p>Dob\u00e2nzi mai mici ar reduce costurile de finan\u021bare pentru popula\u021bie \u0219i companii \u0219i ar putea sus\u021bine reluarea credit\u0103rii \u0219i a investi\u021biilor, \u00een special pentru \u00eentreprinderile mici \u0219i mijlocii, care nu au acces la finan\u021bare extern\u0103 la costuri reduse.<\/p>\n<h2>Infla\u021bia a redus puterea de cump\u0103rare a rom\u00e2nilor<\/h2>\n<p>Dincolo de evolu\u021bia indicatorilor macroeconomici, efectele infla\u021biei s-au resim\u021bit direct \u00een veniturile popula\u021biei.<\/p>\n<p>Potrivit Concordia, din ianuarie 2025 salariile au crescut mai lent dec\u00e2t pre\u021burile, ceea ce a dus la o reducere treptat\u0103 a puterii de cump\u0103rare. Situa\u021bia s-a accentuat \u00een aprilie 2026, c\u00e2nd un angajat cu salariul mediu ar fi pierdut aproximativ 10% din puterea de cump\u0103rare comparativ cu \u00eenceputul perioadei analizate.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"related-inline svelte-1e3czf1\" data-gtrack=\"{&quot;event&quot;:&quot;utm_click&quot;,&quot;data&quot;:{&quot;event_category&quot;:&quot;article_related&quot;}}\" href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/economie\/de-ce-cresterea-salariului-minim-poate-avea-efecte-2541301.html\" title=\"Alt articol de interes pentru tine\"><span class=\"inline-title svelte-1e3czf1\">De ce cre\u0219terea salariului minim poate avea efecte nedorite: avertismente privind concedieri \u0219i munc\u0103 la negru<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Presiunea s-a reflectat \u0219i \u00een consum. V\u00e2nz\u0103rile cu am\u0103nuntul au intrat pe sc\u0103dere fa\u021b\u0103 de anul anterior \u00eenc\u0103 din august 2025, iar declinul s-a accentuat \u00een 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Mai pu\u021bin\u0103 \u00eencredere \u0219i venituri reale mai mici au dus la reducerea consumului de bunuri \u0219i servicii, afect\u00e2nd direct companiile care depind de cererea intern\u0103.<\/p>\n<h2>Comer\u021bul, HoReCa \u0219i imobiliarele au resim\u021bit sc\u0103derea consumului<\/h2>\n<p>Mediul privat a resim\u021bit efectele combina\u021biei dintre infla\u021bie ridicat\u0103, cre\u0219teri de taxe \u0219i reducerea consumului.<\/p>\n<p><i>\u201eCre\u0219terile de pre\u021buri \u0219i de taxe din ultimul an au afectat puternic cererea \u00een sectoare importante ale economiei rom\u00e2ne\u0219ti, reprezentate de Concordia, precum produc\u021bia de mobil\u0103, comer\u021bul, HoReCa sau imobiliarele. \u00cencetinirea ratei infla\u021biei \u0219i refacerea \u00eencrederii sunt esen\u021biale pentru revenirea sectoarelor dependente de consum \u0219i pentru salvarea cre\u0219terii economice a Rom\u00e2niei \u0219i, implicit, a locurilor de munc\u0103<\/i>\u201d, a explicat Iulian Lolea, economist \u0219ef al Confedera\u021biei Patronale Concordia.<\/p>\n<h2>2026 ar putea aduce stabilizarea puterii de cump\u0103rare<\/h2>\n<p>Concordia estimeaz\u0103 c\u0103, \u00een 2026, dinamica salariilor ar putea fi mai apropiat\u0103 de evolu\u021bia pre\u021burilor, dup\u0103 ce \u00een 2025 at\u00e2t veniturile, c\u00e2t \u0219i consumul au fost afectate de cre\u0219terea fiscalit\u0103\u021bii.<\/p>\n<p>Major\u0103rile de TVA \u0219i accize au avut efect direct asupra pre\u021burilor bunurilor \u0219i serviciilor, \u00een timp ce eliminarea facilit\u0103\u021bilor fiscale din construc\u021bii, IT \u0219i agricultur\u0103 a redus veniturile angaja\u021bilor din aceste domenii sau a limitat cre\u0219terile salariale viitoare.<\/p>\n<p>\u00cen acest an, lipsa unor noi major\u0103ri importante de taxe \u0219i sc\u0103derea infla\u021biei ar putea permite men\u021binerea puterii de cump\u0103rare sau chiar o u\u0219oar\u0103 revenire a acesteia.<\/p>\n<h2>Economia are nevoie \u00een continuare de reforme \u0219i investi\u021bii<\/h2>\n<p>De\u0219i sc\u0103derea infla\u021biei reprezint\u0103 un semnal pozitiv, economia rom\u00e2neasc\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2ne vulnerabil\u0103.<\/p>\n<p>Concordia atrage aten\u021bia c\u0103 revenirea complet\u0103 depinde de continuarea reformelor, investi\u021biile \u00een infrastructur\u0103 \u0219i asigurarea unui cadru fiscal-bugetar predictibil.<\/p>\n<p>Reducerea deficitului bugetar ar trebui realizat\u0103 prin \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u021birea colect\u0103rii veniturilor \u0219i reducerea inechit\u0103\u021bilor, astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t economia s\u0103 poat\u0103 reveni pe o traiectorie de cre\u0219tere sustenabil\u0103.<\/p>\n<p>Sc\u0103derea infla\u021biei \u0219i revenirea salariilor reale ar putea oferi un impuls economiei \u00een a doua parte a anului 2026 \u0219i la \u00eenceputul lui 2027, \u00eens\u0103 r<a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/economie\/de-ce-cresterea-salariului-minim-poate-avea-efecte-2541301.html\" target=\"_blank\">elansarea consumului <\/a>\u0219i a investi\u021biilor va depinde de rec\u00e2\u0219tigarea \u00eencrederii popula\u021biei \u0219i a mediului de afaceri.<\/p>\n<p><\/main><\/p>\n<footer class=\"svelte-63r2dw\">\n<div class=\"related-wrap related-footer svelte-1e3czf1\"><span class=\"related-label svelte-1e3czf1\">Cite\u0219te \u0219i<\/span><a class=\"related svelte-1e3czf1\" data-gtrack=\"{&quot;event&quot;:&quot;utm_click&quot;,&quot;data&quot;:{&quot;event_category&quot;:&quot;article_related&quot;}}\" href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/economie\/bnr-nu-schimba-dobanda-cheie-ce-inseamna-decizia-2541859.html\" title=\"Alt articol de interes pentru tine\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"thumb svelte-1e3czf1\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.adh.reperio.news\/image-f\/f22af02d-e377-46d8-981c-b7b65e9a0e16\/index.jpeg\" alt loading=\"lazy\" width=\"80\" height=\"54\"><span class=\"title svelte-1e3czf1\">BNR nu schimb\u0103 dob\u00e2nda-cheie. Ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 decizia pentru creditele rom\u00e2nilor<\/span><\/a><a class=\"related svelte-1e3czf1\" data-gtrack=\"{&quot;event&quot;:&quot;utm_click&quot;,&quot;data&quot;:{&quot;event_category&quot;:&quot;article_related&quot;}}\" href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/economie\/inflatia-a-scazut-usor-in-iunie-ce-produse-au-2542757.html\" title=\"Alt articol de interes pentru tine\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"thumb svelte-1e3czf1\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.adh.reperio.news\/image-f\/f411a9a0-f2be-4696-a7b6-c588fcf40e35\/index.jpeg\" alt loading=\"lazy\" width=\"80\" height=\"54\"><span class=\"title svelte-1e3czf1\">Infla\u021bia a sc\u0103zut u\u0219or \u00een iunie. Ce produse au explodat la pre\u021b. Energia electric\u0103 s-a scumpit cu aproape 60% \u00eentr-un an<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"meta svelte-63r2dw\">\n<div class=\"authors svelte-63r2dw\"><span class=\"names svelte-63r2dw\"><a href=\"\/author\/1662\" rel=\"author\" class=\"svelte-63r2dw\">Afrodita Cicovschi<\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"tags svelte-12okeyl\"><span class=\"tags-label metaFont svelte-12okeyl\">Cite\u0219te mai multe despre<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"tags-list svelte-12okeyl\"><a href=\"\/tag\/bnr\" title=\"Ultimele \u0219tiri despre bnr\" class=\"tag-pill svelte-12okeyl\">bnr<\/a><a href=\"\/tag\/inflatia\" title=\"Ultimele \u0219tiri despre inflatia\" class=\"tag-pill svelte-12okeyl\">inflatia<\/a><a href=\"\/tag\/concordia\" title=\"Ultimele \u0219tiri despre concordia\" class=\"tag-pill svelte-12okeyl\">concordia<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a class=\"moreFromCategory svelte-63r2dw\" href=\"\/economie\" title=\"Economie\">Mai multe din <strong class=\"svelte-63r2dw\">Economie<\/strong> \u203a<\/a><\/footer>\n<\/article>\n<p>[analyse_source url=&#8221;https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/economie\/inflatia-a-depasit-varful-si-ar-putea-cobori-spre-2542812.html&#8221;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/cdn.adh.reperio.news\/image-e\/ec1c95b9-9ce3-43af-bdd5-13914c8100be\/index.jpeg?p=f%3Djpeg%26w%3D1200%26h%3D630%26r%3Dcover&#8221;] Home Economie Infla\u021bia a dep\u0103\u0219it v\u00e2rful \u0219i ar putea cobor\u00ee spre 6% p\u00e2n\u0103 la finalul anului. Concordia: Rom\u00e2nii au pierdut deja din puterea de cump\u0103rare Infla\u021bia din Rom\u00e2nia pare s\u0103 fi trecut de punctul maxim, iar urm\u0103toarele luni ar putea aduce o sc\u0103dere rapid\u0103 a ritmului de cre\u0219tere a pre\u021burilor. Rata anual\u0103 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[89],"tags":[19,226],"class_list":["post-2044393","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-romania","tag-adevarul","tag-crawlmanager"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2044393","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2044393"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2044393\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2044393"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2044393"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2044393"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}