{"id":2033387,"date":"2026-07-08T14:19:35","date_gmt":"2026-07-08T11:19:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2033387"},"modified":"2026-07-08T14:19:35","modified_gmt":"2026-07-08T11:19:35","slug":"the-world-cup-changes-the-ballon-dor-messi-surges-966-mbappe-and-bellingham-run-riot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2033387","title":{"rendered":"The World Cup changes the Ballon d&#8217;Or: Messi surges 966%, Mbapp\u00e9 and Bellingham run riot\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/e00-xlk-ue-marca-en.uecdn.es\/files\/article_main_microformat\/uploads\/2026\/07\/08\/6a4e5c08c38a8.jpeg&#8221;]<\/p>\n<article class=\"ue-c-article\">\n<div class=\"ue-l-article__header\">\n<div class=\"ue-l-article__main-column\">\n<div class=\"ue-c-article__header \">\n<div class=\"ue-l-article__header-content ue-l-article--expand-right-full-from-tablet ue-l-article--expand-right-half-from-desktop\">\n<div class=\"ue-c-article__kicker-group\">\n<div class=\"ue-c-article__kicker-container\">\n<div class=\"ue-c-article__kicker\">World Cup<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h1 class=\"ue-c-article__headline js-headline js-headlineb \">The World Cup changes the Ballon d&#8217;Or: Messi surges 966%, Mbapp\u00e9 and Bellingham run riot\u2026<\/h1>\n<p class=\"ue-c-article__standfirst\">The World Cup once again sets the course for football&#8217;s most prestigious individual award&#8230; where several favorites have collapsed<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ue-l-article__body\" data-section=\"articleBody\">\n<div class=\"ue-l-article__main-column ue-l-article--minimum-content-from-tablet\">\n<figure class=\"ue-c-article__media ue-c-article__media--image ue-c-article--media-icon-m-from-phablet ue-l-article--expand-left-full-from-tablet ue-c-article__media--main-media\">\n<div class=\"ue-c-article__media-img-container ue-l-article--expand-edge-right-until-tablet ue-l-article--expand-edge-left-until-tablet\"><source type=\"image\/webp\" sizes=\"(min-width: 1010px) 660px, (min-width: 980px) calc(100vw - 350px), (min-width: 740px) calc(100vw - 320px), 100vw\" srcset=\"https:\/\/e00-xlk-ue-marca-en.uecdn.es\/files\/article_360_widen_webp\/uploads\/2026\/07\/08\/6a4e5c08c38a8.webp 360w,https:\/\/e00-xlk-ue-marca-en.uecdn.es\/files\/article_375_widen_webp\/uploads\/2026\/07\/08\/6a4e5c08c38a8.webp 375w,https:\/\/e00-xlk-ue-marca-en.uecdn.es\/files\/article_414_widen_webp\/uploads\/2026\/07\/08\/6a4e5c08c38a8.webp 414w,https:\/\/e00-xlk-ue-marca-en.uecdn.es\/files\/article_660_widen_webp\/uploads\/2026\/07\/08\/6a4e5c08c38a8.webp 660w,https:\/\/e00-xlk-ue-marca-en.uecdn.es\/files\/article_720_widen_webp\/uploads\/2026\/07\/08\/6a4e5c08c38a8.webp 720w,https:\/\/e00-xlk-ue-marca-en.uecdn.es\/files\/article_750_widen_webp\/uploads\/2026\/07\/08\/6a4e5c08c38a8.webp 750w,https:\/\/e00-xlk-ue-marca-en.uecdn.es\/files\/article_828_widen_webp\/uploads\/2026\/07\/08\/6a4e5c08c38a8.webp 828w,https:\/\/e00-xlk-ue-marca-en.uecdn.es\/files\/article_1320_widen_webp\/uploads\/2026\/07\/08\/6a4e5c08c38a8.webp 1320w\" \/><\/div><figcaption class=\"ue-c-article__media-caption\">\n<div class=\"ue-c-article__media-caption-inner\"><span class=\"ue-c-article__media-description\">Lionel Messi.<\/span><\/div>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"ue-c-article__bar has-avatar ue-c-article__bar--horizontal-from-tablet\">\n<div class=\"ue-c-article__bar-body\">\n<ul class=\"ue-c-article__byline ue-l-article--grow-from-desktop\" aria-label=\"Redacci\u00f3n:\">\n<li class=\"ue-c-article__byline-item\">\n<div class=\"ue-c-article__byline-name\">\n                                JOEL DEL R\u00cdO \/ RYAN MITCHELL\n                    <\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"ue-c-article__publishdate\" aria-label=\"Fecha de publicaci\u00f3n\"><span>Updated <\/span><time datetime=\"2026-07-08T14:19:35Z\">                            08\/07\/2026<br \/>\n        &#8211;<br \/>\n        <span>09:19<abbr title=\"Central Daylight Time\">CDT<\/abbr><\/span><\/time><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ue-c-article__bar-secondary ue-u-hide-until-tablet ue-l-article--leftcol-width-from-tablet ue-l-article--float-left-from-tablet-no-margin ue-l-article--move-to-leftcol-from-tablet ue-u-sticky-top-80\">\n<ul class=\"ue-c-article__share-tools  ue-c-article__share-tools--direction-column js_socialMedia\" aria-label=\"Compartir art\u00edculo en Redes Sociales\">\n<li class=\"ue-c-article__share-tools-item ue-c-article__share-tools-item--facebook\"><span class=\"hidden-content\">Compartir en Facebook<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"ue-c-article__share-tools-item ue-c-article__share-tools-item--twitter\"><span class=\"hidden-content\">Compartir en Twitter<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"ue-c-article__share-tools-item ue-c-article__share-tools-item--telegram\"><span class=\"hidden-content\">Compartir en Telegram<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"ue-c-article__share-tools-item ue-c-article__share-tools-item--whatsapp\"><span class=\"hidden-content\">Compartir en Whatsapp<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"ue-c-article__share-tools-item ue-c-article__share-tools-item--email\"><span class=\"hidden-content\">Compartir por Mail<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<ul class=\"ue-c-article__subtitles ue-l-article--width-1of2-from-mobile ue-l-article--width-1of3-from-desktop ue-l-article--float-right-from-mobile ue-c-article__subtitles--boxed\" aria-label=\"Contenido relacionado\">\n<li class=\"ue-c-article__subtitles-item  \"><span class=\"ue-c-article__subtitles-kicker\">World Cup\u00a0 <\/span>Messi&#8217;s latest &#8220;madness&#8221;: five goals away from Just Fontaine&#8217;s &#8220;impossible&#8221; record<\/li>\n<li class=\"ue-c-article__subtitles-item  \"><span class=\"ue-c-article__subtitles-kicker\">World Cup\u00a0 <\/span>Messi is using the World Cup to close in on Cristiano Ronaldo in their race to reach the 1,000th goal in history: How many more does he need?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"ue-c-article__body\">\n<p data-mrf-recirculation=\"Links P\u00e1rrafos\" class=\"ue-c-article__paragraph paragraph ue-c-article--first-letter-highlighted\">In a World Cup year, the <strong>Ballon d&#8217;Or<\/strong> is never decided solely by what happens with the clubs. The history of the award shows that the <strong>World Cup<\/strong> usually ends up tipping the balance definitively. It doesn&#8217;t matter if a player has had an extraordinary season between August and May: <strong>when the major international tournament arrives, everything is up for grabs again<\/strong>. And this edition is proving to be no exception. With the decisive matches still to come, some performances have already completely changed the race for the award.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"ue-c-article__subheadline\">Messi rises 966%<\/h2>\n<p data-mrf-recirculation=\"Links P\u00e1rrafos\" class=\"ue-c-article__paragraph paragraph\">The most striking case is that of <strong>Leo Messi. <\/strong>Before the World Cup, he had only a <strong>0.97% chance of winning the Ballon d&#8217;Or<\/strong>. Now he has reached 10.34%. In other words, he has multiplied his chances by more than ten and <strong>boosted his candidacy by 966%<\/strong>.\u00a0The Argentine has gone from being an almost purely symbolic name to becoming the fifth favorite for the award. Ahead of him are only <strong>Kane, Mbapp\u00e9, Demb\u00e9l\u00e9 and Olise<\/strong>. If Argentina keeps progressing, his candidacy will too. The ninth Ballon d&#8217;Or, which seemed impossible a month ago, is back on the table according to Betfair&#8217;s data.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"ue-c-article__media ue-c-article__media--video  video-player\"><figcaption class=\"ue-c-article__media-caption\">\n<div class=\"ue-c-article__media-caption-inner\"><span class=\"ue-c-article__media-description\">Messi and Argentina celebrate &#8220;like crazy&#8221; in the locker room after 3-2 win over Egypt<\/span><\/div>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"ue-c-article__subheadline\">Kane holds on, Mbapp\u00e9 presses<\/h2>\n<p data-mrf-recirculation=\"Links P\u00e1rrafos\" class=\"ue-c-article__paragraph paragraph\"><strong>Harry Kane remains the main favorite, with a 22.27% chance.<\/strong> He was already leading before the tournament, when he had 20.11%, and the World Cup has allowed him to slightly strengthen his position.\u00a0The real threat is Mbapp\u00e9. <strong>The Frenchman has gone from 4.36% to 19.30%, a 343% increase that places him as the second favorite<\/strong>. His seven goals in the World Cup and France\u2019s strong run have erased some of the doubts about his season with Real Madrid. He is now only three percentage points behind Kane.\u00a0Between them, they already account for more than 41% of the chances of winning the Ballon d&#8217;Or.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"ue-c-article__subheadline\">Bellingham and Haaland run riot<\/h2>\n<p data-mrf-recirculation=\"Links P\u00e1rrafos\" class=\"ue-c-article__paragraph paragraph\">The World Cup has also breathed new life into other candidacies. <strong>Jude Bellingham, who came in far from the favorites after a disappointing season with Real Madrid, has gone from 0.64% to 4.26%<\/strong>. His growth is 566% and he now appears in the top 10.\u00a0Haaland has also taken a huge leap. <strong>The Norway striker has raised his chances from 1.92% to 6.59%, an increase of 243%, driven by his seven goals and his national team\u2019s surprising run to the quarterfinals.<\/strong>\u00a0Michael Olise is also on the rise, going from 8.17% to 12.06%, while Cristiano Ronaldo climbs from 0.80% to 2.79% and Vinicius improves from 0.97% to 2.13%.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"ue-c-article__subheadline\">The World Cup also sinks candidacies<\/h2>\n<p data-mrf-recirculation=\"Links P\u00e1rrafos\" class=\"ue-c-article__paragraph paragraph\">The other side is found in those who arrived carrying significant weight from their club season and have lost ground during the World Cup. <strong>Declan Rice is behind the biggest drop: from 10.89% to 3.45%, a 68% plunge.\u00a0Also falling back are Kvaratskhelia, who drops from 7.26% to 4.83%; Raphinha, from 1.28% to 0.89%; Demb\u00e9l\u00e9, from 14.52% to 12.06%; and Juli\u00e1n \u00c1lvarez, from 1.28% to 1.08%<\/strong>.\u00a0PSG is the best example of the change in circumstances. Before the World Cup, it had five players in the top 10: Demb\u00e9l\u00e9, Olise, Kvaratskhelia, Vitinha and Dou\u00e9. Now only those who are delivering in the tournament are still holding strong.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<hr class=\"taboola-art-mid-script\" data-ue-is-premium=\"false\" data-ue-is-basic=\"true\" data-ue-is-mobile=\"false\">\n<div class=\"ue-c-article__tags-container\">\n<ul class=\"ue-c-article__tags\" aria-label=\"Etiquetado como:\">\n<li class=\"ue-c-article__tags-item\">FIFA World Cup<\/li>\n<li class=\"ue-c-article__tags-item\">Lionel Messi<\/li>\n<li class=\"ue-c-article__tags-item\">Argentina National Football Team<\/li>\n<li class=\"ue-c-article__tags-item\">Kylian Mbapp\u00e9<\/li>\n<li class=\"ue-c-article__tags-item\">Ballon d&#8217;Or<\/li>\n<li class=\"ue-c-article__tags-item\">Harry Kane<\/li>\n<li class=\"ue-c-article__tags-item\">Ousmane Demb\u00e9l\u00e9<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ue-c-article__related-news \" aria-label=\"Art\u00edculos relacionados\">\n<div class=\"ue-c-article__related-news-item\"><span class=\"ue-c-article__related-news-kicker\">World Cup <\/span>Enzo Fern\u00e1ndez&#8217;s wild transformation: &#8220;He was short and kind of chubby&#8230;&#8221;<\/div>\n<div class=\"ue-c-article__related-news-item\"><span class=\"ue-c-article__related-news-kicker\">World Cup <\/span>Messi&#8217;s latest &#8220;madness&#8221;: five goals away from Just Fontaine&#8217;s &#8220;impossible&#8221; record<\/div>\n<div class=\"ue-c-article__related-news-item\"><span class=\"ue-c-article__related-news-kicker\">World Cup <\/span>FIFA is investigating racist insults directed at streamer IShowSpeed after he mocked Messi during the match against Egypt<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ue-c-popular-links js-featured-links ue-c-popular-links--closed\">\n<ul class=\"list ue-c-popular-links__list hidden-content\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n<li class=\"ue-c-popular-links__list-item \">NFL News<\/li>\n<li class=\"ue-c-popular-links__list-item \">Cowboys News<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<p>[analyse_source url=&#8221;https:\/\/www.marca.com\/en\/world-cup\/2026\/07\/08\/the-world-cup-changes-the-ballon-d-or-messi-surges-966-mbappe-and-bellingham-run-riot.html&#8221;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/e00-xlk-ue-marca-en.uecdn.es\/files\/article_main_microformat\/uploads\/2026\/07\/08\/6a4e5c08c38a8.jpeg&#8221;] World Cup The World Cup changes the Ballon d&#8217;Or: Messi surges 966%, Mbapp\u00e9 and Bellingham run riot\u2026 The World Cup once again sets the course for football&#8217;s most prestigious individual award&#8230; where several favorites have collapsed Lionel Messi. JOEL DEL R\u00cdO \/ RYAN MITCHELL Updated 08\/07\/2026 &#8211; 09:19CDT Compartir en Facebook Compartir [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[226,45],"class_list":["post-2033387","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","tag-crawlmanager","tag-marca-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2033387","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2033387"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2033387\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2033387"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2033387"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2033387"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}