{"id":2027440,"date":"2026-07-04T20:21:13","date_gmt":"2026-07-04T17:21:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2027440"},"modified":"2026-07-04T20:21:13","modified_gmt":"2026-07-04T17:21:13","slug":"cancelled-stages-and-a-radically-upended-gc-how-heat-waves-could-upend-tour-de-france","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2027440","title":{"rendered":"Cancelled Stages and a Radically Upended GC? How Heat Waves Could Upend Tour de France"},"content":{"rendered":"
The prospect of one or more Tour de France stages being cancelled has just become a whole lot more possible.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s the takeaway from a decision by France\u2019s Interior Ministry, which has given a green light for regional governments to scrap stages if they feel the heat has made things too dangerous for those on or at the race.<\/p>\n
\u201cAs an exceptional measure and in consultation with the organizer and all those involved, you can decide to cancel a stage when the health or operational conditions no longer allow us to simultaneously ensure the safety of spectators, staff and the continuity of emergency assistance to the population,\u201d the ministry stated in a set of guidelines issued before the race start, and reported by l\u2019Equipe.<\/p>\n
The decision will be taken by local prefectures, a form of regional government or administration.<\/p>\n
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The guidelines appear to pertain more to the health of those working on or attending the race, with the riders themselves being governed by the UCI\u2019s heat protocol plus the plans of race organizer ASO.<\/p>\n
Of course, any decision by prefectures to cancel stages will affect everyone involved.<\/p>\n
Other options open are to close certain public areas, modify the race course or even ban alcohol consumption in public.<\/p>\n
The news is very relevant as, following a severe heatwave across Europe in June, it appears at least one other block of stifling weather may be on the cards.<\/p>\n
That will concern the riders, of course, and so too ASO itself.<\/p>\n
Tour de France race director Christian Prudhomme told l\u2019Equipe the steps are logical and said that ASO is in constant contact with the Interior Ministry.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis whole system is set up in the same way every year. A prefect can always make these kinds of decisions in the interest of the population. It\u2019s all common sense.\u201d<\/p>\n
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\u201cFor the riders, we apply the UCI protocol and for the public we regularly broadcast reports about the heat on TV, radio, local channels and along the Tour\u2019s course. This year, the caravan will distribute 2.5 million caps, 550,000 cans of water and 400,000 liters of water.\u201d<\/p>\n
Puzzling performance changes<\/h2>\nEdward Theuns (Lidl \u2013 Trek) in an ice vest during last year\u2019s edition of the Tour de France (Photo: Tim de Waele\/Getty Images)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Safety is one very important consideration. But could the actual outcome of the race be affected?<\/p>\n
If the heat continues, you can bet on it.<\/p>\n
The final stage of the Tour de Suisse Women was an example in point. Elisa Longo Borghini started the day just 10 seconds off the yellow jersey of Marlen Reusser. She was upbeat about her chances of winning overall but, instead, she cracked dramatically and lost almost ten minutes to the Swiss rider.<\/p>\n
She later revealed that she had heat stroke and said she couldn\u2019t remember much of that final climb.<\/p>\n
If the same thing happens to one or more of the Tour\u2019s GC favorites, it could reshape the whole Tour.<\/p>\n
Indeed, that\u2019s something EF Education-EasyPost boss Jonathan Vaughters emphasized during the team press conference on Friday.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf this heat wave continues through July, that usually changes the race, though we don\u2019t know exactly how,\u201d he said. \u201cWhen you get extended stretches of 35\u201340\u00b0C, day after day, for two or three weeks, it creates cumulative fatigue that reshapes the race. It makes it more attritional, less explosive.<\/p>\n
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\u201cBluntly, the human body can\u2019t produce as much power at 35\u201340\u00b0C as it can at 20\u201325\u00b0C. That shifts things toward a gritty, durable rider willing to suffer, and away from a hyper-talented, explosive one.\u201d<\/p>\n
Advantage Vingegaard?<\/h2>\nThere could be even more intense sun than usual on this year\u2019s race (Photo: Loic Venance \/ AFP)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Could the weather affect Tadej Poga\u010dar, the number one favorite for the race?<\/p>\n
Speaking to Velo<\/i> back in 2021, his-then coach I\u00f1igo San Mill\u00e1n said his time gain on stages 8 and 9 was likely due to the cold, wet weather in the Alps.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe all know that Tadej loves bad weather and he always performs well with bad weather.\u201d<\/p>\n
Conversely, when Vingegaard beat Poga\u010dar in 2022 and 2023 it was said that part of his dominance was down to a better ability to handle heat.<\/p>\n
Could that tip the balance in the Dane\u2019s favor this month?<\/p>\n
If so it will be fascinating twist to their annual rivalry in the race. That\u2019s even more so the case after Vingegaard took yellow in the opening team time trial, giving him a small but morale-boosting advantage.<\/p>\n
Other GC riders could be affected too, either positively or negatively.<\/p>\n
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It\u2019s an additional degree of uncertainty introduced to what is a very chaotic race.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere are riders who are simply better suited to heat,\u201d said Vaughters on Friday. \u201cA small, compact rider is more aerodynamic but dissipates heat less well, versus a taller rider with more surface area who dissipates heat better but is less aerodynamic. It\u2019s not obvious which wins out in extreme heat.\u201d<\/p>\n
Tour debutant Paul Seixas\u2019 height is listed at 1m86, considerably taller than the 1m76 and 1m75 of Poga\u010dar and Vingegaard respectively.<\/p>\n
Of the other GC riders, Florian Lipowitz is 1m81 and Isaac Del Toro 1m80. That puts them well ahead of Remco Evenepoel\u2019s 1m71, which is one centimeter taller than Tom Pidcock.<\/p>\n
\u2018For me, the hotter the better\u2019<\/h2>\nJonathan Vaughters believes his EF Education-Easypost team could benefit from hotter conditions (Photo: Gruber Images)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Time will tell if the heat is indeed a big issue for the whole race, and which riders are most affected.<\/p>\n
For his part, Vaughters hopes that his riders will have the edge if the conditions persist.<\/p>\n
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\u201cI don\u2019t know what the weather will be three weeks from now \u2014 but I hope for a great battle. In a heavily attritional scenario, I think Richie [Carapaz] does quite well, and I think our team overall is set up for that kind of racing: we\u2019re ahead of the curve on cooling technology and hydration procedures.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt comes down to taking care of the human body, so for me, the hotter, the better. Ben [Healy] has actually been incredibly disciplined in his heat-adaptation training, too \u2014 which is no fun to do \u2014 but he\u2019s been great about it.\u201d<\/p>\n
Other teams have doubtlessly also focused on such training, making calculations at this point difficult to do.<\/p>\n
The takeaway message, though, is that if the race is hit by heatwaves, a tough race will suddenly become far more difficult and key stages could be removed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
[analyse_image type=”featured” src=”https:\/\/velo-cdn.outsideonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Z8A_0043.jpg”] Shane Stokes Published July 4, 2026 02:21PM The prospect of one or more Tour de France stages being cancelled has just become a whole lot more possible. That\u2019s the takeaway from a decision by France\u2019s Interior Ministry, which has given a green light for regional governments to scrap stages if they feel […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[226,71],"class_list":["post-2027440","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","tag-crawlmanager","tag-velo-outsideonline-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2027440","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2027440"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2027440\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2027440"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2027440"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2027440"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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