{"id":2027436,"date":"2026-07-04T07:32:06","date_gmt":"2026-07-04T04:32:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2027436"},"modified":"2026-07-04T07:32:06","modified_gmt":"2026-07-04T04:32:06","slug":"dream-or-delusion-could-paul-seixas-actually-win-his-first-tour-de-france-at-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2027436","title":{"rendered":"Dream or Delusion: Could Paul Seixas Actually Win His First Tour de France at 19?"},"content":{"rendered":"
It\u2019s unlikely but not impossible that Paul Seixas could triumph in his first Tour de France.<\/p>\n
Since World War Two, a total of nine riders have pulled off that feat. Jean Robic, Fausto Coppi and Hugo Koblet each did it two years apart between 1947 and 1951, with the five-time Tour de France winners Jacques Anquetil, Eddy Merckx and Bernard Hinault taking wins in their debuts in 1957, 1969 and 1978 respectively.<\/p>\n
The others to scoop yellow and spray the bubbly on their first try were Felice Gimondi (1965), Laurent Fignon (1983) and, of course, Tadej Poga\u010dar in 2020.<\/p>\n
On that basis, winning in his first participation isn\u2019t out of the question for the new French hope Seixas.<\/p>\n
And yet it will be far from easy.<\/p>\n
Seixas is just 19 years of age, becoming the youngest rider to line out in the Tour since Adrian Cento back in 1937. That\u2019s a gap of 89 years.<\/p>\n
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In fact, Poga\u010dar was slightly more than two full years older than Seixas when he clocked up his first Tour win in 2020. He\u2019s regarded by some as the greatest rider of all time, so the young Frenchman is going to have to be something very special indeed if he is to triumph.<\/p>\n
But it\u2019s not completely out of the question.<\/p>\n
He\u2019s had a runaway success this season, starting the year with no pro wins yet ending up with seven in the months since.<\/p>\n
The first of those was a stage in the Volta ao Algarve in February. The Faun-Ard\u00e8che Classic followed that same month, while he clocked up three stage wins plus the overall classification in Itzulia Basque Country in April.<\/p>\n
That in turn led on to Fl\u00e8che Wallonne, where he raced with calm and confidence to drop his rivals on the concluding wall of the Mur de Huy.<\/p>\n
Head to head with Poga\u010dar<\/h2>\nSeixas was second behind Poga\u010dar in Li\u00e8ge in April, while Evenepoel placed third (Photo: Dario Belingheri\/Getty Images)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
But it was his near-misses this season which may reveal more about just how good the Decathlon CMA CGM rider is.<\/p>\n
He finished second to Poga\u010dar in Strade Bianche, just one minute behind.<\/p>\n
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And he was the only rider able to hold the Slovenian when he went all out on the C\u00f4te de la Redoute in Li\u00e8ge-Bastogne-Li\u00e8ge.<\/p>\n
They remained together for another 21 kilometers, Seixas trading pulls with a rider eight years his senior, and putting in such a good performance that Poga\u010dar started to believe the race would come down to a sprint.<\/p>\n
The four-time Tour winner eventually gapped the Frenchman on the C\u00f4te de la Roche-aux-Faucons and was able to breathe a sigh of relief, but the race served as a clear warning: Poga\u010dar\u2019s time will eventually come to an end, and Seixas could be the one to replace him.<\/p>\n
No wonder his UAE Emirates XRG team is rumored to be chasing his signature.<\/p>\n
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For now, though, he is very much part of the Decathlon team, leading its hopes in this Tour. His first campaign gets underway Saturday in the team time trial in Barcelona, where he hopes to log a strong performance and prove he\u2019s over the big crash which saw him leave the Tour Auvergne Rh\u00f4ne Alpes.<\/p>\n
That was an unwelcome outcome in his final preparation race, but even if journalists at the Tour say he still appears to be affected by his crash, at least when moving around off the bike, he\u2019s insisting there\u2019s nothing to panic about.<\/p>\n
\u201cRest assured, everything is fine,\u201d Seixas told l\u2019Equipe in recent days. \u201cI am in really good shape and I feel very good.\u201d<\/p>\n
He is, he said, at the Tour to achieve the best possible performance.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe priority is still going for the general classification,\u201d he reaffirmed. \u201cIn what position, I don\u2019t know yet. We\u2019ll see. But I won\u2019t take risks for anything other than the general classification\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n
Lacking three week experience<\/h2>\nPaul Seixas had a big crash during the Tour Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes (Photo: Dario Belingheri\/Getty Images)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Age aside, another factor for Seixas to deal with is the fact that he\u2019s never done a grand tour.<\/p>\n
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If we return to that list of riders who won their debut Tour de France, only two of those nine\u2014Robic and Anquetil\u2014had not done either the Giro d\u2019Italia or the Vuelta a Espa\u00f1a prior to that first Tour.<\/p>\n
Those seven had already exposed themselves to a three week event.<\/p>\n
For Seixas, he\u2019s only done two eight-days races: the past two editions of the Tour Auvergne-Rh\u00f4ne-Alpes.<\/p>\n
And so once the Tour gets into week two he\u2019s chartering new territory.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s no guarantee at all that he won\u2019t crack.<\/p>\n
But, equally, if the hype about him is based in reality, he could do something really, really big.<\/p>\n
Some French journalists are suggesting\u2014say this quietly\u2014that he might be more talented than Hinault himself.<\/p>\n
What may also be important is his ability to handle heat. Europe has been hit by heatwaves in recent weeks, with another one building up.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s talk of possible stage cancellations or, at the very least, of big disruptions.<\/p>\n
If Seixas can handle the heat well, this could give him an advantage over some of his rivals.<\/p>\n
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It was said in the past that Poga\u010dar can\u2019t handle the high temperatures as well as some others, Vingegaard included.<\/p>\n
If that\u2019s indeed the case and if the Slovenian gets into difficulties, the race could be wide open.<\/p>\n
A dream debut<\/h2>\nRival Isaac Del Toro was lauded by Bernard Hinault at the Tour Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes (Photo: Dario Belingheri\/Getty Images)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
While we are stretching for possibilities, Vingegaard could end up paying the price for his Giro d\u2019Italia preparation. Unless he\u2019s fully recovered, he could find his legs fading in week three.<\/p>\n
If both he and Poga\u010dar ended up below their potential, the race would suddenly be thrust wide open.<\/p>\n
Seixas has already beaten the other contenders, ending up ahead of Isaac Del Toro in both Strade Bianche and Itzulia Basque Country, and bettering Florian Lipowitz in the latter.<\/p>\n
He also finished ahead of Remco Evenepoel in last year\u2019s Il Lombardia, the last race the two of them competed together.<\/p>\n
As you can see, there\u2019s a lot of what ifs, with some sort of collapse by Poga\u010dar and Vingegaard likely necessary to put him in the frame to triumph overall.<\/p>\n
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It\u2019s theoretically possible, though, and that will thrill his fans.<\/p>\n
What\u2019s more likely is that he has a solid first Tour, taking some very good results and amassing vital experience prior to an even bigger assault in the years to come.<\/p>\n
Previous Tour winners in their debut:<\/strong><\/p>\n
1903 \u2014 Maurice Garin \n1904 \u2014 Henri Cornet \n1905 \u2014 Louis Trousselier \n1947 \u2014 Jean Robic \n1949 \u2014 Fausto Coppi \n1951 \u2014 Hugo Koblet \n1957 \u2014 Jacques Anquetil \n1965 \u2014 Felice Gimondi \n1969 \u2014 Eddy Merckx \n1978 \u2014 Bernard Hinault \n1983 \u2014 Laurent Fignon \n2020 \u2014 Tadej Poga\u010dar<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
[analyse_image type=”featured” src=”https:\/\/velo-cdn.outsideonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/GettyImages-2283853436-scaled.jpg”] Shane Stokes Updated July 4, 2026 01:36AM It\u2019s unlikely but not impossible that Paul Seixas could triumph in his first Tour de France. Since World War Two, a total of nine riders have pulled off that feat. Jean Robic, Fausto Coppi and Hugo Koblet each did it two years apart between 1947 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[226,71],"class_list":["post-2027436","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","tag-crawlmanager","tag-velo-outsideonline-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2027436","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2027436"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2027436\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2027436"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2027436"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2027436"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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![\"Paul](\"https:\/\/velo-cdn.outsideonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/GettyImages-2281397458.jpg?width=3840&auto=webp&quality=75&fit=cover\")
![\"Isaac](\"https:\/\/velo-cdn.outsideonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/GettyImages-2281547590.jpg?width=3840&auto=webp&quality=75&fit=cover\")