{"id":2020769,"date":"2026-07-01T07:33:22","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T04:33:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2020769"},"modified":"2026-07-01T07:33:22","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T04:33:22","slug":"dont-believe-the-doom-posting-72-years-of-data-says-the-snow-will-come-to-australian-ski-resorts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2020769","title":{"rendered":"Don\u2019t Believe the Doom-Posting: 72 Years of Data Says the Snow Will Come to Australian Ski Resorts"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<div class=\"mceTemp\"><\/div>\n<figure id=\"attachment_414540\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-414540\" style=\"width: 1920px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-414540 lazyload\" src=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAoAAAAFoAQMAAAD9\/NgSAAAABlBMVEUAAAD\/\/\/+l2Z\/dAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAAAlwSFlzAAAOxAAADsQBlSsOGwAAADJJREFUeNrtwQENAAAAwqD3T+3sARQAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAN3HoAAEwzlS7AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\" alt width=\"640\" height=\"360\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG_3971.jpeg?resize=640%2C360&amp;ssl=1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG_3971.jpeg?w=1920&amp;ssl=1 1920w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG_3971.jpeg?resize=300%2C169&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG_3971.jpeg?resize=1200%2C675&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG_3971.jpeg?resize=768%2C432&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG_3971.jpeg?resize=1536%2C864&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG_3971.jpeg?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-eio-rwidth=\"640\" data-eio-rheight=\"360\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-414540\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG_3971.jpeg?resize=640%2C360&amp;ssl=1\" alt width=\"640\" height=\"360\" data-eio=\"l\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-414540\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Perisher Valley on July 1, 2026. | Image: Perisher Webcam<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"code-block code-block-1\" style=\"margin: 8px auto;text-align: center;display: block;clear: both\">\n<!-- GAM 71161633\/SNWBR_snowbrains\/article_hrec_1 --><\/p>\n<div data-fuse=\"article_hrec_1\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>Australian ski season doom-posting has become something of a mainstream media tradition.<\/strong> Any time Australian resorts have a slow start to the season, webcam screenshots of brown slopes in the Snowy Mountains circulate rapidly, followed by the familiar superlatives: \u201cworst season in XX years,\u201d \u201cno snow in sight,\u201d or some variation of seasonal collapse. We are even seeing international trolling from Japan in the form of social media posts of grassy slopes from Myoko Tourism with tongue-in-cheek commentary. For Australian skiers and snowboarders, the narrative is familiar. We have been here before \u2014 multiple times \u2014 and while nobody is claiming it is a strong start, it is still far too early in the season to draw conclusions.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_414538\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-414538\" style=\"width: 771px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-414538 lazyload\" src=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAoAAAAIpAQMAAAAIEBtGAAAABlBMVEUAAAD\/\/\/+l2Z\/dAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAAAlwSFlzAAAOxAAADsQBlSsOGwAAAEJJREFUeNrtwTEBAAAAwqD1T20ND6AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAuDau+QABurGPHQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\" alt width=\"640\" height=\"553\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG_4707.jpeg?resize=640%2C553&amp;ssl=1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG_4707.jpeg?w=771&amp;ssl=1 771w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG_4707.jpeg?resize=300%2C259&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG_4707.jpeg?resize=768%2C663&amp;ssl=1 768w\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-eio-rwidth=\"640\" data-eio-rheight=\"553\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-414538\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG_4707.jpeg?resize=640%2C553&amp;ssl=1\" alt width=\"640\" height=\"553\" data-eio=\"l\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-414538\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Headline snapshots from this week. | Image: SnowBrains<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong>If you want data to counter the hype cycle, <em>SnowBrains<\/em> has gone back through the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.snowyhydro.com.au\/generation\/live-data\/snow-depths\/\">Snowy Hydro<\/a> records and analysed historical snow depth data from Spencer\u2019s Creek, the benchmark site for Australian alpine snowpack.<\/strong> Continuous measurements have been taken there since the 1950s, making it the most reliable long-term dataset for conditions in the Snowy Mountains.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Related: <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/snowbrains.com\/snowbrains-forecast-australia-storm-peaks-near-40-cm-this-week\/\"><strong><em>SnowBrains Forecast: Australia Storm Peaks Near 40cm This Week<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>We identified 15 seasons since records began that had similarly slow starts. <\/strong>For this analysis, a slow start was defined as any season recording less than 20 cm (8 inches) of snow at Spencer\u2019s Creek in either week four or week five of the season. With June 1 marking the start of winter in Australia, week four corresponds to June 22\u201328 and week five to June 29\u2013July 5. We used 20 cm as the threshold, given that the current season has already recorded measurable accumulation. On June 10, Spencer\u2019s Creek measured 14.4 cm (6 inches). Comparing it to the only year with zero snow for the first four weeks like some media outlets have done is not just misleading but plain wrong.\u00a0Instead, using sub-20 cm in a comparable time window as we are in right now is the only reasonable comparison.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_414520\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-414520\" style=\"width: 960px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"wp-image-414520 size-full lazyload\" src=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAoAAAAG3AQMAAAAelHboAAAABlBMVEUAAAD\/\/\/+l2Z\/dAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAAAlwSFlzAAAOxAAADsQBlSsOGwAAADlJREFUeNrtwQENAAAAwqD3T20PBxQAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAhwaK5wABgW3ppgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\" alt width=\"640\" height=\"439\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/slow-season-australia-e1782889055734.jpg?resize=640%2C439&amp;ssl=1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/slow-season-australia-e1782889055734.jpg?w=960&amp;ssl=1 960w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/slow-season-australia-e1782889055734.jpg?resize=300%2C206&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/slow-season-australia-e1782889055734.jpg?resize=768%2C526&amp;ssl=1 768w\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-eio-rwidth=\"640\" data-eio-rheight=\"439\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"wp-image-414520 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/slow-season-australia-e1782889055734.jpg?resize=640%2C439&amp;ssl=1\" alt width=\"640\" height=\"439\" data-eio=\"l\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-414520\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Comparing 15 past ski season starts in Australia (sub-20cm in week 4 or 5).| Image: SnowBrains with data fro Snowy Hydro<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"code-block code-block-2\" style=\"margin: 8px auto;text-align: center;display: block;clear: both\">\n<!-- GAM 71161633\/SNWBR_snowbrains\/article_hrec_2 --><\/p>\n<div data-fuse=\"article_hrec_2\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>Historical Slow Starts (Spencer\u2019s Creek):<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"code-block code-block-16\" style=\"margin: 8px 0;clear: both\">\n<div id=\"sb-newsletter\" style=\"background:#2B2E3A;border-top:3px solid #D7424E;padding:26px 24px 22px;margin:28px 0;,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;width:100%;display:block\">\n<p>    @media (max-width:600px) {<br \/>\n      #sb-newsletter { padding:18px 20px 14px !important; }<br \/>\n      #sb-newsletter h3 { font-size:14px !important; white-space:nowrap; }<br \/>\n      #sb-newsletter .sb-body { font-size:12px !important; margin-bottom:8px !important; }<br \/>\n      #sb-newsletter .sb-proof { font-size:11px !important; }<br \/>\n      #sb-newsletter .sb-form-row { flex-wrap:nowrap !important; }<br \/>\n      #sb-newsletter .sb-form-row input { font-size:12px !important; padding:9px 10px !important; }<br \/>\n      #sb-newsletter .sb-form-row button { font-size:12px !important; padding:9px 12px !important; }<br \/>\n    }<\/p>\n<div id=\"sb-form-wrap\">\n<p style=\"font-size:13px;font-weight:700;letter-spacing:2px;text-transform:uppercase;color:#D7424E;margin:0 0 9px 0;,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif\">SnowBrains Newsletter<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"color:#ffffff;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;margin:0 0 6px 0;line-height:1.25;,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif\">The snowsports journalism skiers trust.<\/h3>\n<p class=\"sb-body\" style=\"color:#ffffff;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 8px 0;line-height:1.5;,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif\">Award-winning journalism, resort reports, powder forecasts and industry deep dives from the world&#8217;s largest independent snowsports outlet.<\/p>\n<p class=\"sb-proof\" style=\"color:#9ca3af;font-size:12px;font-style:italic;margin:0 0 12px 0;,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif\">Join thousands of snow lovers.<\/p>\n<div class=\"sb-form-row\" style=\"display:flex;gap:8px;flex-wrap:wrap\">\n<p>      <button style=\"background:#D7424E;color:#fff;border:none;border-radius:4px;padding:10px 20px;,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:13px;font-weight:700;cursor:pointer;white-space:nowrap\">Subscribe free \u2192<\/button>\n    <\/div>\n<p style=\"color:#ffffff;font-size:11px;margin:10px 0 0 0;,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif\">No spam. Unsubscribe any time.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"sb-success\" style=\"display:none\">\n<p style=\"color:#ffffff;font-size:26px;font-weight:700;margin:0 0 8px 0;line-height:1.2;,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif\">You&#8217;re in!<\/p>\n<p style=\"color:#ffffff;font-size:15px;margin:0;line-height:1.5;,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif\">Thanks for signing up. The best ski news is on its way.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>function sbSubscribe() {<br \/>\n  var email = document.getElementById(&#8216;sb-email&#8217;).value;<br \/>\n  if (!email || !email.includes(&#8216;@&#8217;)) {<br \/>\n    document.getElementById(&#8216;sb-email&#8217;).style.borderColor = &#8216;#D7424E&#8217;;<br \/>\n    return;<br \/>\n  }<br \/>\n  var url = &#8216;https:\/\/snowbrains.us5.list-manage.com\/subscribe\/post?u=1f247afab0a546e393c022f9a&amp;id=bcbf6caf6b&amp;f_id=003bf2e0f0&#8217;;<br \/>\n  var data = new FormData();<br \/>\n  data.append(&#8216;EMAIL&#8217;, email);<br \/>\n  data.append(&#8216;tags&#8217;, &#8216;2188762&#8217;);<br \/>\n  data.append(&#8216;b_1f247afab0a546e393c022f9a_bcbf6caf6b&#8217;, &#8221;);<br \/>\n  fetch(url, { method: &#8216;POST&#8217;, body: data, mode: &#8216;no-cors&#8217; });<br \/>\n  document.getElementById(&#8216;sb-form-wrap&#8217;).style.display = &#8216;none&#8217;;<br \/>\n  document.getElementById(&#8216;sb-success&#8217;).style.display = &#8216;block&#8217;;<br \/>\n}\n<\/p><\/div>\n<ul>\n<li>1957 \u2014 0 cm in week 5 (no snow until week 6)<\/li>\n<li>1967 \u2014 0 cm in week 5 (delayed start, then 18 cm)<\/li>\n<li>1959 \u2014 11.3 cm in week 5<\/li>\n<li>1979 \u2014 0 cm in week 4<\/li>\n<li>1980 \u2014 13.1 cm in week 4<\/li>\n<li>1982 \u2014 20 cm in week 5<\/li>\n<li>1984 \u2014 17 cm in week 4<\/li>\n<li>1989 \u2014 14 cm in week 4, dropping to 5 cm in week 5<\/li>\n<li>1991 \u2014 0 cm in week 4<\/li>\n<li>1997 \u2014 15.2 cm in week 5<\/li>\n<li>2001 \u2014 15.6 cm in week 5<\/li>\n<li>2015 \u2014 1 cm in week 5<\/li>\n<li>2017 \u2014 4 cm in week 5<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>These seasons represent the 15 weakest early-season snow conditions in the dataset. <\/strong>However, despite early concerns, these seasons did not remain weak throughout winter. Across all 15 slow-start years, the average peak snow depth measured 179.2 cm and the median peak snow depth during those 15 seasons measured 174.2 cm. This compares to a historical average across all seasons since 1954 of 195.9 cm average peak depth and 185.4 cm median peak depth.<\/p>\n<p><strong>While the average and median for those 15 seasons is about 6-8.5% below the all time average and median, it is important to point out that in 1991, the snow depth reached a peak of\u00a0284.7 cm (112 inches).<\/strong> Unfortunately, on the flip side, in 1982 the snow depth maxed out at 91 cm (36 inches). Importantly, across the dataset, slow-start seasons consistently recover to produce full snow seasons, with only modest reductions in peak depth compared to long-term averages.<\/p>\n<p><strong>It is also important to note that only 15 of the past 72 seasons fall into this slow-start category \u2014 meaning the vast majority of years begin with stronger early-season snowpack.<\/strong> With Australian school holidays taking place in late June and early July, it is naturally very frustrating for those who had hoped for a nice ski holiday at home during that period. Whether ski resorts in Australia can do more to ensure sufficient snow cover for the early season is certainly a topic that needs to be evaluated by the industry.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Related: <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/snowbrains.com\/snow-farming-perisher\/\"><em><strong>Could Snow Farming Save Australia\u2019s Early Season?<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Ultimately, the historical record from Spencer\u2019s Creek is consistent: a slow June does not define the Australian ski season. <\/strong>Snow will come. It always does.\u00a0The real question is not whether the season has started strongly \u2014 but how it will finish.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_414541\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-414541\" style=\"width: 1920px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-414541 lazyload\" src=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAoAAAAFYAQMAAAD5ht+\/AAAABlBMVEUAAAD\/\/\/+l2Z\/dAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAAAlwSFlzAAAOxAAADsQBlSsOGwAAADFJREFUeNrtwQEBAAAAgiD\/r25IQAEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAO8GbNgAATGMOuIAAAAASUVORK5CYII=\" alt width=\"640\" height=\"344\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG_3972.jpeg?resize=640%2C344&amp;ssl=1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG_3972.jpeg?w=1920&amp;ssl=1 1920w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG_3972.jpeg?resize=300%2C161&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG_3972.jpeg?resize=1200%2C646&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG_3972.jpeg?resize=768%2C413&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG_3972.jpeg?resize=1536%2C826&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG_3972.jpeg?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-eio-rwidth=\"640\" data-eio-rheight=\"344\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-414541\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/IMG_3972.jpeg?resize=640%2C344&amp;ssl=1\" alt width=\"640\" height=\"344\" data-eio=\"l\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-414541\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">You know it\u2019s a bad start to the season when you are being trolled by Japan. | Image: Myoko Snow Resorts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><!-- CONTENT END 1 -->\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Perisher Valley on July 1, 2026. | Image: Perisher Webcam Australian ski season doom-posting has become something of a mainstream media tradition. Any time Australian resorts have a slow start to the season, webcam screenshots of brown slopes in the Snowy Mountains circulate rapidly, followed by the familiar superlatives: \u201cworst season in XX years,\u201d \u201cno [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[226,267],"class_list":["post-2020769","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-crawlmanager","tag-snowbrains-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2020769","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2020769"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2020769\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2020769"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2020769"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2020769"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}