{"id":2018387,"date":"2026-06-29T11:18:50","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T08:18:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2018387"},"modified":"2026-06-29T11:18:50","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T08:18:50","slug":"toti-declara-ca-nu-vor-razboiul-majoritatea-crede-ca-e-inevitabil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2018387","title":{"rendered":"To\u021bi declar\u0103 c\u0103 nu vor r\u0103zboiul. Majoritatea crede c\u0103 e inevitabil"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/cdn.adh.reperio.news\/image-b\/b7e9f21c-2cbf-4c3b-b832-8b41f514f2d5\/index.jpeg?p=f%3Djpeg%26w%3D1200%26h%3D630%26r%3Dcover&#8221;]<\/p>\n<article class=\"svelte-t0js42\">\n<nav>\n<ul class=\"breadcrump svelte-1j3umxo\">\n<li class=\"svelte-1j3umxo\"><a href=\"\/\" title=\"Adev\u0103rul\" class=\"svelte-1j3umxo\">Home<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"svelte-1j3umxo\"><a href=\"\/blogurile-adevarul\" class=\"svelte-1j3umxo\">Opinii<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"svelte-1j3umxo\"><a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/blogurile-adevarul\/toti-declara-ca-nu-vor-razboiul-majoritatea-crede-2539714.html\" class=\"svelte-1j3umxo\">To\u021bi declar\u0103 c\u0103 nu vor r\u0103zboiul. Majoritatea crede c\u0103 e inevitabil<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/nav>\n<p><main class=\"svelte-t0js42\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"container-image  svelte-jd4qiv\"><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.adh.reperio.news\/image-b\/b7e9f21c-2cbf-4c3b-b832-8b41f514f2d5\/index.jpeg?p=a%3D1%26co%3D1.05%26w%3D1400%26h%3D750%26r%3Dcontain%26f%3Dwebp 1400w\" media=\"(min-width: 1400px)\" \/><\/div>\n<p>Foto: Twitter \/ X<\/p>\n<p><b><i>C\u00e2teva note despre<br \/>\nr\u0103zboi, \u00een general, c\u00e2teva flash-uri despre r\u0103zboiul din Ucraina, \u00een special <\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<p><b><i>Nota 1. Pe vremuri,<br \/>\ndrumul c\u0103tre r\u0103zboi era lung.<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<p><i>Antipatiile \u0219i<br \/>\nadversit\u0103\u021bile dintre lideri \u0219i dintre state aveau nevoie de ani \u0219i decenii ca<br \/>\ns\u0103 se materializeze \u00een ac\u021biuni militare.<\/i><\/p>\n<p><i>Popula\u021bia era<br \/>\nconservatoare, ve\u0219tile circulau greu, trebuia s\u0103 treac\u0103 timp p\u00e2n\u0103 c\u00e2nd s\u0103 se<br \/>\nafle c\u0103 \u00eemp\u0103ratul, regele, imperiul sau \u021bara au un nou du\u0219man, e cazul s\u0103 se preg\u0103teasc\u0103<br \/>\nde lupt\u0103.<\/i><\/p>\n<p><i>\u0218i urma preg\u0103tirea care,<br \/>\n\u0219i ea, dura anotimpuri lungi.<\/i><\/p>\n<p><i>Arme erau mai pu\u021bine,<br \/>\ndestul de imprecise.<\/i><\/p>\n<p><i>Tocmai de aceea<br \/>\narmatele f\u0103ceau tabere lungi de antrenament, iar solda\u021bii era fr\u0103gezi\u021bi \u00een<br \/>\nmar\u0219uri lungi \u0219i istovitoare.<\/i><\/p>\n<p><b>Flash \u00een care Ucraina este<br \/>\ndeclarat\u0103 c\u00e2\u0219tig\u0103toare.<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Succesele \u00een lovirea<br \/>\nunor \u021binte din ad\u00e2ncimea teritoriului rus, cu prec\u0103dere infrastructur\u0103<br \/>\npetrolier\u0103, dar nu numai, pe care le anun\u021b\u0103 Kievul, sunt mai mult dec\u00e2t<br \/>\nobi\u0219nuitele opera\u021bii de rela\u021bii publice de dinaintea unor summit-uri<br \/>\ninterna\u021bionale.<\/p>\n<p>Ele sunt acum recunoscute<br \/>\n\u0219i de c\u0103tre Kremlin, autorit\u0103\u021bile locale din regiunile afectate sunt obligate<br \/>\ns\u0103 ia m\u0103suri de criz\u0103, cuv\u00e2ntul \u201eprobka\u201d \/ ambuteiaj revine \u00een limbajul<br \/>\nlocuitorilor din Crimeea dar \u0219i din alte regiuni, unele departe de front.<\/p>\n<p>Oamenii stau din nou la<br \/>\ncoad\u0103 pentru a cump\u0103ra benzin\u0103 \u00een cantit\u0103\u021bi restric\u021bionate, concediile de la<br \/>\nMarea Neagr\u0103 se am\u00e2n\u0103.<\/p>\n<p>Situa\u021bia permite<br \/>\nreapari\u021bia unor titluri despre posibila \u0219i at\u00e2t de dorita victorie ucrainean\u0103:<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<br \/>\n<i>Crimeea este strangulat\u0103. Autorit\u0103\u021bile ruse se lupt\u0103. De ce<br \/>\n(\u0219i cum) face Ucraina asta? \/ <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/RFERL\" rel=\"nofollow\">Radio Free Europe \/ Radio Liberty<\/a><\/i>;<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<br \/>\n<i>Moscova are o mostr\u0103 din discursul de r\u0103zboi al lui<br \/>\nVladimir Putin<\/i><br \/>\n\/ <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/75148ab3-3f96-48b2-a1f9-5412e78721ff\" rel=\"nofollow\">Financial<br \/>\nTimes<\/a>;<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<br \/>\n<i>Informare despre r\u0103zboiul din Ucraina: Crimeea, ocupat\u0103 de<br \/>\nRusia, declar\u0103 \u201estare de urgen\u021b\u0103\u201d, \u00een timp ce for\u021bele lui Zelenski \u00ee\u0219i<br \/>\nintensific\u0103 atacurile<\/i><br \/>\n\/ <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2026\/jun\/27\/ukraine-war-briefing-russian-occupied-crimea-declares-emergency-as-zelenskyys-forces-step-up-attacks\" rel=\"nofollow\">The<br \/>\nGuardian<\/a>;<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<br \/>\n<i>Mii de oameni fug \u00een timp ce Putin bombardeaz\u0103 ora\u0219ele din<br \/>\nDonbas pe care le r\u00e2vne\u0219te cel mai mult<\/i> \/ The New York Times.<\/p>\n<div class=\"container-image  svelte-jd4qiv\"><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.adh.reperio.news\/image-6\/64ef0896-ef38-4271-a445-2f19b12547a1\/index.jpeg?p=a%3D1%26co%3D1.05%26w%3D1400%26h%3D750%26r%3Dcontain%26f%3Dwebp 1400w\" media=\"(min-width: 1400px)\" \/><\/div>\n<p>Foto: Twitter \u2013 X<\/p>\n<p>Situa\u021bia din jurul<br \/>\nPeninsulei Crimeea este dificil\u0103 pentru Rusia, \u00eentotdeauna a fost, \u00een ultima<br \/>\nperioad\u0103 chiar \u0219i infrastructura industrial\u0103 \u0219i energetic\u0103 aflat\u0103 la mii de<br \/>\nkilometri dep\u0103rtare de linia frontului a devenit \u021bint\u0103 pentru dronele \u0219i<br \/>\nrachetele ucrainene, dar tabloul r\u0103zboiului este mult mai larg, o tu\u0219\u0103 fiind<br \/>\nsugerat\u0103 chiar de <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/06\/22\/world\/europe\/ukraine-donetsk-donbas-sloviansk-kramatorsk-russia.html?searchResultPosition=1\" rel=\"nofollow\">titlul<\/a><br \/>\ndin <i>The New York Times<\/i>.<\/p>\n<p>Doar c\u00e2teva puncte<br \/>\nexplicative, a\u0219a cum \u00eei st\u0103 bine unei analize flash:<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<br \/>\ndronele<br \/>\nsunt noua \u201darm\u0103 minune\u201d a armatei ucrainene, succesele utiliz\u0103rii lor fiind<br \/>\nurmare a unui cumul de factori: experien\u021b\u0103 proprie, sprijin masiv de la<br \/>\nparteneri, folosirea IA \u00een alegerea \u021bintelor \u0219i itinerariilor de zbor<br \/>\n(probabil, tot cu implicarea unora dintre parteneri), utilizarea unui sistem de<br \/>\ncomunica\u021bii prin satelit mai eficient dec\u00e2t al Rusiei (tot partenerii&#8230;);<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<br \/>\n\u201eminunea\u201d<br \/>\ndureaz\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 c\u00e2nd i se g\u0103se\u0219te un antidot. Deocamdat\u0103, Rusia \u00eenc\u0103 \u00eel caut\u0103,<br \/>\ndar, \u00eentre timp, dronele \u0219i rachetele ruse presteaz\u0103 acela\u0219i serviciu de<br \/>\ndistrugere punctual\u0103 \u0219i sistematic\u0103 asupra teritoriului ucrainean;<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<br \/>\ndac\u0103<br \/>\nUcraina sper\u0103 s\u0103 izoleze Crimeea, Rusia a \u00eenceput deja s\u0103 ac\u021bioneze pentru<br \/>\nizolarea \u00eentregului teritoriu ucrainean de dincolo de Nipru, o solicitarea mai<br \/>\nveche a \u201ddurilor\u201d din\u00a0 cercul de putere<br \/>\nde la Kremlin. Nu au fost lovite dec\u00e2t c\u00e2teva poduri, \u00een capitala regional\u0103<br \/>\nZaporojie, dar r\u0103m\u00e2ne perspectiva ca for\u021bele armate ucrainene de pe front \u0219i<br \/>\ndin regiunile nord \u2013 estice, unde ru\u0219ii lucreaz\u0103 la \u00eenchegarea \u201dzonei de<br \/>\nsecuritate\u201d, s\u0103 fie din ce \u00een ce mai greu de aprovizionat \u0219i sus\u021binut;<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<br \/>\n\u00een<br \/>\naceea\u0219i direc\u021bie, de distrugere a infrastructurii de transport dintre estul \u0219i<br \/>\nvestul Ucrainei, a re\u00eenceput \u201er\u0103zboiul locomotivelor\u201d, opera\u021biune prin care<br \/>\nfor\u021bele ruse vor s\u0103 scurtcircuiteze leg\u0103turile logistice ale Kievului cu<br \/>\nfrontul.<\/p>\n<p>\u00cen b\u0103t\u0103lia dronelor,<br \/>\nUcraina c\u00e2\u0219tig\u0103 la acest moment.<\/p>\n<p>\u00cen ceea ce prive\u0219te<br \/>\nr\u0103zboiul&#8230; e drum lung p\u00e2n\u0103 departe.<\/p>\n<div class=\"container-image  svelte-jd4qiv\"><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.adh.reperio.news\/image-3\/36aa1618-111f-4199-92d2-8d77c3d32d2b\/index.jpeg?p=a%3D1%26co%3D1.05%26w%3D1400%26h%3D750%26r%3Dcontain%26f%3Dwebp 1400w\" media=\"(min-width: 1400px)\" \/><\/div>\n<p>Foto: Twitter \/ X<\/p>\n<p><b><i>Nota 2. Era necesar s\u0103<br \/>\ndispar\u0103 orice urm\u0103 de umanitate<\/i><\/b>, <i>s\u0103 se topeasc\u0103, precum ceara, amintirile<br \/>\nvie\u021bii pa\u0219nice \u0219i patriarhale din satele \u0219i ora\u0219ele de provincie furnizoare de<br \/>\ncarne de tun.<\/i><\/p>\n<p><i>\u00cen timp ce solda\u021bii<br \/>\nm\u0103r\u0219\u0103luiau, departe, la zeci de kilometri, generalii cu must\u0103\u021bi \u00een furculi\u021b\u0103 \u0219i<br \/>\nbarbi\u0219on grizonant, studiau h\u0103r\u021bile secrete pentru viitoarele campanii.<\/i><\/p>\n<p><i>\u0218i aceste h\u0103r\u021bi<br \/>\nr\u0103m\u00e2neau liter\u0103 de lege p\u00e2n\u0103 la momentul \u00een care se pleca la ofensiv\u0103, armatele<br \/>\nse aliniau precum s\u0103ge\u021bile albastre \u0219i ro\u0219ii de pe h\u0103r\u021bile frumos colorate.<\/i><\/p>\n<p><i>De abia dup\u0103 aceea<br \/>\nap\u0103rea imprevizibilul, nici acesta foarte gr\u0103bit, r\u0103zboiul din vremurile<br \/>\ntrecute avea un ritm al lui, greu de stricat.<\/i><\/p>\n<p><b>Flash \u00een care se caut\u0103<br \/>\n\u201dspiritul de la Anchorage\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u00cen cur\u00e2nd se face un an<br \/>\nde la t\u00eate-\u00e0-t\u00eate-ul Trump \u2013 Putin de la Anchorage.<\/p>\n<p>Summit-ul bilateral din<br \/>\nAlaska, \u00a0a l\u0103sat impresia c\u0103 formula<br \/>\n\u201dteritorii contra garan\u021bii de securitate\u201d ar putea fi o solu\u021bie pentru finalul<br \/>\nr\u0103zboiului.<\/p>\n<p>Teritoriile ar fi urmat<br \/>\ns\u0103 fie reprezentate de regiunea Donbas, integral\u0103, garan\u021biile de securitate<br \/>\nput\u00e2nd fi ceva asem\u0103n\u0103tor articolului 5 al Tratatului NATO, aplicabil \u0219i la partenerul<br \/>\nUcraina.<\/p>\n<p>Restul punctelor se<br \/>\nputea discuta.<\/p>\n<p>Propunerile americane<br \/>\nde la Anchorage \u0219i acordul rus la acestea au fost, \u00eens\u0103, pe vorbe, nu s-a<br \/>\nsemnat nimic, a fost un fel de <i>gentlemen&#8217;s agreement<\/i>, \u00een speran\u021ba c\u0103 \u00een<br \/>\nperioada ce va urma se vor putea construi condi\u021biile pentru negocieri mai<br \/>\nprofunde.<\/p>\n<p>Nu s-a ajuns acolo. <\/p>\n<p>Niciuna din p\u0103r\u021bi nu a<br \/>\nputut furniza ceea ce a solicitat cealalt\u0103 parte, \u00een acela\u0219i timp Ucraina \u0219i<br \/>\nEuropa partener\u0103 s-au sim\u021bit tr\u0103date \u0219i au f\u0103cut tot ce s-a putut ca \u00een\u021belegerea<br \/>\ncelor doi Lei Paralei s\u0103 nu se materializeze.<\/p>\n<p>Noul r\u0103zboi din Golf a distras<br \/>\naten\u021bia SUA din direc\u021bia Kiev, negociatorii americani fiind necesari pentru alte<br \/>\nformate. <\/p>\n<p>\u00cen aceste condi\u021bii, SUA<br \/>\na exersat mai pu\u021bin\u0103 diploma\u021bie pe rela\u021bia Rusia, dar a r\u0103mas consecvent\u0103<br \/>\nsprijinului militar pentru Kiev, poate nu at\u00e2t de consistent ca \u00eenainte dar<br \/>\ndirijat c\u0103tre domenii punctuale, cele care poate face diferen\u021ba tehnologic\u0103. <\/p>\n<p>\u0218i s-a ajuns la<br \/>\nmomentul \u00een care flac\u0103ra diplomatic\u0103 aprins\u0103 \u00een Alaska s-a stins aproape de<br \/>\ntot.<\/p>\n<p>A\u0219a c\u0103 suntem acum la<br \/>\netapa \u201eescalad\u0103rii pentru a de-escalada\u201d, sintagm\u0103 despre care lumea bun\u0103 a<br \/>\nanali\u0219tilor afirm\u0103 c\u0103 i-ar fi foarte drag\u0103 pre\u0219edintelui american, fiind<br \/>\nfolosit\u0103 \u0219i ca tactic\u0103 de negociere. <\/p>\n<p>\u00cen termeni din teren,<br \/>\naceasta \u00eenseamn\u0103 \u00a0sprijinirea Ucrainei<br \/>\npentru a derula cu succes \u201eofensiva de 40 de zile\u201d (nu g\u00e2ndi\u021bi prea departe, e<br \/>\nvorba doar de aceast\u0103 campanie intensificat\u0103 de atacare a unor \u021binte ruse cu<br \/>\nvizibilitate ridicat\u0103 \u0219i impact mediatic major) \u00een perspectiva summit-ului NATO<br \/>\nde la Ankara.<\/p>\n<p>Poate nu a\u021bi fost<br \/>\naten\u021bi, dar e bine de \u0219tiut c\u0103 majoritatea ofensivelor reale sau doar mediatice<br \/>\nucrainene se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103, da, din pur\u0103 coinciden\u021b\u0103, \u00een perioadele premerg\u0103toare<br \/>\nunor reuniuni importante pentru Kiev, acelea \u00een care se iau decizii importante<br \/>\nprivind nivelul implic\u0103rii partenerilor euro \u2013 atlantici \u00een sprijinirea<br \/>\nUcrainei.<\/p>\n<p>Pune\u021bi not\u0103 \u00een<br \/>\ncalendar: 7 \u2013 8 iulie 2026, Ankara. <\/p>\n<div class=\"container-image  svelte-jd4qiv\"><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.adh.reperio.news\/image-d\/da7d97e1-e5ba-44c3-9878-49926b8c09ad\/index.jpeg?p=a%3D1%26co%3D1.05%26w%3D1400%26h%3D750%26r%3Dcontain%26f%3Dwebp 1400w\" media=\"(min-width: 1400px)\" \/><\/div>\n<p>Foto: Twitter \/ X<\/p>\n<p>Atunci vom afla c\u00e2t a<br \/>\nmai r\u0103mas din \u201espiritul Anchorage\u201d \u0219i \u00een ce direc\u021bie se \u00eendreapt\u0103 r\u0103zboiul din<br \/>\nUcraina.<\/p>\n<p>Dar, vorba ministrului<br \/>\nucrainean de externe, Andrii Sibiha:\u00a0<i>\u201eRealitatea clarific\u0103 un lucru: dac\u0103 \u00abSpiritul din Anchorage\u00bb a existat<br \/>\nm\u0103car, cu siguran\u021b\u0103 este mort acum.\u201d<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Ceea ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103<br \/>\ntrebuie \u0219i \u00eengropat.<\/p>\n<p>Mark my words!<\/p>\n<p><b><i>Nota 3. S-au dus acele<br \/>\nvremuri.<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<p><i>Acum, \u021bac \u2013 pac, dac\u0103<br \/>\nliderul suprem are o noapte proast\u0103 \u0219i crede c\u0103 e din cauza altui lider suprem,<br \/>\npoate ordona, la prima or\u0103 a dimine\u021bii, extragerea acestuia din propriul<br \/>\na\u0219ternut \u0219i internarea la loc r\u0103coros pe durat\u0103 nedeterminat\u0103.<\/i><\/p>\n<p><i>Dac\u0103 nu exist\u0103 condi\u021bii<br \/>\npentru aceast\u0103 solu\u021bie simpl\u0103 \u0219i curat\u0103, se poate opta \u0219i pentru transformarea<br \/>\nre\u0219edin\u021bei perfidului omolog \u00eentr-un morman de \u00a0c\u0103r\u0103mizi \u0219i cenu\u0219\u0103.<\/i><\/p>\n<p><i>Dac\u0103 un vecin<br \/>\n\u00eend\u0103r\u0103tnic \u0219i mai t\u00e2n\u0103r &#8211; f\u0103r\u0103 experien\u021ba dureroas\u0103 a unei istorii pline de r\u0103zboaie<br \/>\nc\u00e2\u0219tigate sau pierdute \u2013 este \u0219i prea gr\u0103bit s\u0103 se afirme, liderul suprem poate<br \/>\nordona mica, dup\u0103 aceea chiar marea invazie, cer\u00e2nd celor care \u00eei stau \u00een cale<br \/>\ns\u0103 \u00eel \u00eent\u00e2mpine cu flori.<\/i><\/p>\n<div class=\"container-image  svelte-jd4qiv\"><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.adh.reperio.news\/image-4\/4cb210eb-24e8-43cb-807b-d9a4cfe977a0\/index.jpeg?p=a%3D1%26co%3D1.05%26w%3D1400%26h%3D750%26r%3Dcontain%26f%3Dwebp 1400w\" media=\"(min-width: 1400px)\" \/><\/div>\n<p>Foto: Twitter \/ X<\/p>\n<p><b>Flash \u00een care istoria e<br \/>\no hain\u0103 cu dou\u0103 fe\u021be<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Dup\u0103 ce coletul<br \/>\ndiplomatic cu Ordinul \u201dVulturul Alb\u201d a ajuns \u00eenapoi la expeditor, conflictul preziden\u021bialo<br \/>\n\u2013 diplomatic dintre Kiev \u0219i Var\u0219ovia a continuat cu faza replicilor seismice. <\/p>\n<p>Pre\u0219edintele Zelenski<br \/>\nnu e genul de lider care s\u0103 \u00ee\u0219i menajeze vecinii, mai ales c\u00e2nd e sigur c\u0103<br \/>\nr\u0103zboiul cu Rusia \u00eel pozi\u021bioneaz\u0103 de partea bun\u0103 a istoriei. <\/p>\n<p>Problema e c\u0103 fiecare<br \/>\n\u021bar\u0103 vecin\u0103 Ucrainei are propria versiune a rela\u021biilor bilaterale de-a lungul secolelor<br \/>\nrecente, iar cei care pot, exemplul Poloniei, o \u0219i declar\u0103, chiar dac\u0103 se<br \/>\nstric\u0103 Feng \u2013 Shui \u2013 ul unei lupte comune pentru principii \u0219i valori.<\/p>\n<p>\u00centr-un <a href=\"https:\/\/tsn.ua\/en\/ukrayina\/we-live-from-strike-to-strike-not-from-one-thank-you-to-another-zelenskyy-sends-sharp-message-to-poland-3111182.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">interviu<\/a><br \/>\npentru postul de televiziune TSN, pre\u0219edintele Zelenski ofer\u0103 o replic\u0103<br \/>\nomologului polonez, pe un ton aluziv \u2013 ofensator, asem\u0103n\u0103tor celui utilizat \u00een<br \/>\nscrisoarea c\u0103tre pre\u0219edintele Putin. <\/p>\n<p>Principala idee este c\u0103<br \/>\nputerile preziden\u021biale ale liderului de la Kiev sunt prea pu\u021bine pentru a putea<br \/>\nschimba voin\u021ba poporului ost\u0103\u0219esc dintr-un batalion de for\u021be speciale. Acesta<br \/>\n(poporul ost\u0103\u0219esc) a \u021binut s\u0103-\u0219i onoreze \u00eenainta\u0219ii \u2013 care, la vremea lor, au<br \/>\navut ceva probleme cu un num\u0103r de etnici polonezi, vreo 100.000, dup\u0103<br \/>\naprecierea istoricilor de la Var\u0219ovia \u2013 solicit\u00e2nd ca unitatea respectiv\u0103 s\u0103<br \/>\nfie numit\u0103 \u201dEroii UPA\u201d \/ <i><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Ukrainian_Insurgent_Army\" rel=\"nofollow\">Ukrainska<br \/>\nPovstanska Armiia<\/a><\/i><i> \/ Armata Insurgent\u0103 Ucrainean\u0103<\/i>, gata, s-a decis, mai<br \/>\npo\u021bi face ceva?<\/p>\n<p>Tot interviul, care<br \/>\n\u00eencepe interogativ \u0219mecheresc: <i>&#8220;Karol <\/i>(Nawrocki, pre\u0219edintele<br \/>\nPoloniei, \u00eencep\u00e2nd cu anul 2025, n.n.)<i>, acesta e numele lui, nu-i a\u0219a?&#8221;<\/i>,<br \/>\neste parc\u0103 scor dintr-un pamflet realizat de Studio Kvartal 95, fostul loc de<br \/>\nmunc\u0103 al pre\u0219edintelui ucrainean.<\/p>\n<p>Un dublu sondaj de<br \/>\nopinie arat\u0103 c\u0103 trei sferturi dintre polonezi \u0219i peste 90% dintre ucraineni \u00ee\u0219i<br \/>\nsus\u021bin propriul pre\u0219edinte ceea ce duce disputa de la nivel personal undeva,<br \/>\nmult mai departe, put\u00e2nd provoca o ruptur\u0103 \u00eentre Kiev \u0219i Var\u0219ovia. <\/p>\n<p>Astfel, ne explic\u0103<br \/>\npre\u0219edintele Zelenski, prin decizia sa, Karol (acum \u0219ti\u021bi cine e) nu ajut\u0103<br \/>\ndec\u00e2t Rusia.<\/p>\n<p><b><i>Nota 4. Prietenia de<br \/>\nieri se transform\u0103 \u00een neprietenia de azi<\/i><\/b>, <i>\u00een ura de amurg \u0219i \u00een r\u0103zboiul de<br \/>\nm\u00e2ine diminea\u021b\u0103.<\/i><\/p>\n<p><i>Ast\u0103zi, evolu\u021biile sunt<br \/>\npe repede \u00eenainte, to\u021bi vrem s\u0103 \u00eencerc\u0103m senza\u021biile tari, r\u0103zboiul are,<br \/>\ndesigur, o ofert\u0103 bogat\u0103, e scump\u0103 dar merit\u0103.<\/i><\/p>\n<p><i>Fiecare tab\u0103r\u0103 a ajuns<br \/>\nla concluzia c\u0103 nu se poate cooperare cu cel\u0103lalt, inamicul e iremediabil r\u0103u,<br \/>\nnu ai ce discuta cu el, singurul dialog este prin bugete militare sporite, prin<br \/>\namenin\u021b\u0103ri \u0219i r\u0103spunsuri la amenin\u021b\u0103ri, prin atragerea de c\u00e2t mai mul\u021bi alia\u021bi,<br \/>\ndac\u0103 se poate \u0219i din tab\u0103ra advers\u0103, prin transformarea vie\u021bii cet\u0103\u021benilor<br \/>\ninamici \u00eentr-un iad.<\/i><\/p>\n<div class=\"container-image  svelte-jd4qiv\"><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.adh.reperio.news\/image-5\/58549029-c948-4895-88d5-1952d7a4c86a\/index.jpeg?p=a%3D1%26co%3D1.05%26w%3D1400%26h%3D750%26r%3Dcontain%26f%3Dwebp 1400w\" media=\"(min-width: 1400px)\" \/><\/div>\n<p>Foto: Twitter \/ X<\/p>\n<p><b>Flash \u00een care este<br \/>\nvorba despre pierderea sentimentului de pruden\u021b\u0103 strategic\u0103<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Summit-ul G7 de la<br \/>\nEvian, Fran\u021ba, s-a \u00eencheiat \u00een ziua c\u00e2nd cerul Moscovei era greu de v\u0103zut din cartierele<br \/>\nsud-estice din cauza norului gros de fum care acoperea zona rafin\u0103riei lovite<br \/>\nde dronele ucrainene.<\/p>\n<p>Imaginea s-a potrivit perfect<br \/>\npeste momentul de optimism creat datorit\u0103 \u0219tirilor care anun\u021bau c\u0103 Ucraina este<br \/>\ncapabil\u0103 s\u0103 schimbe direc\u021bia r\u0103zboiului.<\/p>\n<p>Exist\u0103 un anumit<br \/>\nentuziasm colectiv \u00een r\u00e2ndul celor care sprijin\u0103 Ucraina c\u0103 r\u0103zboiul cu Rusia poate<br \/>\ncontinua \u0219i escalada pe actuala linie de conduit\u0103. <\/p>\n<p>Se sper\u0103 c\u0103, indiferent<br \/>\nde c\u00e2t de puternice vor fi loviturile pe care le va primi, Kremlinul se va<br \/>\nre\u021bine \u00een continuare de la lovituri similare celor practicate de SUA \u0219i Israel<br \/>\n\u00een conflictul cu Iranul, pentru a nu risca o criz\u0103 umanitar\u0103 \u0219i a nu ie\u0219i din<br \/>\nnara\u021biunea care face distinc\u021bie \u00eentre \u201dpoporul frate ucrainean\u201d \u0219i \u201dregimul<br \/>\nna\u021bionalist \u0219i ilegal al lui Zelenski\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>\u00centr-un articol<br \/>\npublicat pe platforma de analize politice \u0219i de securitate <i>\u201dResponsible<br \/>\nStatecraft\u201d<\/i>, Matthew Blackburn, cercet\u0103tor la Institutul Norvegian de<br \/>\nRela\u021bii Interna\u021bionale, <a href=\"https:\/\/responsiblestatecraft.org\/russia-europe-war\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">prezint\u0103<\/a> o<br \/>\nserie de argumente care demonstreaz\u0103 c\u0103 \u00a0aceast\u0103<br \/>\nabordare este foarte riscant\u0103 \u0219i poate avea consecin\u021be periculoase, care pot<br \/>\ndep\u0103\u0219i chiar cadrul r\u0103zboiului din Ucraina.<\/p>\n<p>Telegrafic, c\u00e2teva din<br \/>\ntezele sale:<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<br \/>\nEuropa<br \/>\nconsider\u0103 c\u0103 poate asigura managementul escalad\u0103rii r\u0103zboiului, de\u0219i \u00eei lipsesc<br \/>\nunitatea at\u00e2t privind pozi\u021bia comun\u0103 fa\u021b\u0103 de Ucraina, c\u00e2t \u0219i capacitatea de<br \/>\nnegociere care s\u0103 o pun\u0103 pe picior egal cu SUA, Rusia, China;<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<br \/>\nEuropa<br \/>\nnu dispune de un mecanism de control al escalad\u0103rii conflictului, politic sau<br \/>\nmilitar, similar celui \u00een func\u021biune pe perioada R\u0103zboiului Rece;<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<br \/>\nliderii<br \/>\neuropeni consider\u0103 c\u0103 Rusia nu va \u00eendr\u0103zni o ripost\u0103 violent\u0103, care o va pune<br \/>\npe picior de r\u0103zboi cu restul continentului, de aceea ar putea fi posibil un<br \/>\nacord \/ armisti\u021biu cu Kremlinul dac\u0103 acesta va fi presat \u00eendeajuns;<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<br \/>\nse<br \/>\napreciaz\u0103 c\u0103 r\u0103spunsurile nea\u0219teptat de re\u021binute ale Moscovei la o serie de<br \/>\natacuri directe ucrainene av\u00e2nd ca \u021bint\u0103 triada nuclear\u0103 sau re\u0219edin\u021ba<br \/>\npre\u0219edintelui Putin sunt un indicator de sl\u0103biciune \u0219i un argument pentru<br \/>\nac\u021biuni similare;<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<br \/>\nstrategia<br \/>\neuropean\u0103 presupune c\u0103 mutarea facilit\u0103\u021bilor militare industriale ale Ucrainei<br \/>\npe teritoriile unor state europene, precum \u0219i transferul unor tehnologii<br \/>\nmilitare de v\u00e2rf c\u0103tre armamente etichetate drept \u201ducrainene\u201d, nu \u00eenseamn\u0103<br \/>\ncobeligeran\u021b\u0103 \u0219i vor fi protejate tocmai de aceast\u0103 extrateritorialitate, Rusia<br \/>\nnu va \u00eendr\u0103zni s\u0103 loveasc\u0103 dincolo de grani\u021bele sale \u0219i risca un conflict<br \/>\ndirect cu \u00a0Europa \u0219i NATO;<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <i>\u201dTotu\u0219i, aici rezid\u0103<br \/>\npericolul. Dac\u0103 Moscova ajunge la concluzia c\u0103 restric\u021biile sale din interiorul<br \/>\nUcrainei sunt folosite de Kiev ca arm\u0103 pentru a provoca costuri profunde \u0219i<br \/>\numilitoare asupra Rusiei, calculul s\u0103u se va schimba. \u00cen loc s\u0103 se orienteze<br \/>\nc\u0103tre infrastructura ucrainean\u0103, Moscova ar putea \u00eencerca s\u0103 remedieze<br \/>\nasimetria \u00een atacurile masive \u0219i s\u0103 restabileasc\u0103 descurajarea, viz\u00e2nd<br \/>\nadev\u0103rata surs\u0103 a noilor capacit\u0103\u021bi ale Ucrainei: centrele logistice europene<br \/>\n\u0219i unit\u0103\u021bile de produc\u021bie.\u201d<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Citatul de mai sus ilustreaz\u0103<br \/>\n\u00eengrijor\u0103rile autorului articolului privind consecin\u021bele escalad\u0103rii schimbului<br \/>\nde replici militare dintre cele dou\u0103 p\u0103r\u021bi, cu parteneri cu tot, implicate \u00een conflictul<br \/>\ndin Ucraina.<\/p>\n<p>Dup\u0103 escaladarea militar\u0103<br \/>\nde prim\u0103var\u0103 \u2013 var\u0103, ar putea urma contra \u2013 escaladarea de toamn\u0103 \u2013 iarn\u0103?<\/p>\n<p>Una din lec\u021biile<br \/>\nr\u0103zboiului din Iran este c\u0103 nu mai exist\u0103 limite c\u00e2nd e vorba de r\u0103spuns militar,<br \/>\natunci c\u00e2nd \u00a0se for\u021beaz\u0103 toate liniile<br \/>\nro\u0219ii conven\u021bionale.<\/p>\n<p>Dar, \u00een zilele noastre,<br \/>\ncine \u00ee\u0219i mai face temele pentru acas\u0103!?<\/p>\n<p><\/main><\/p>\n<footer class=\"svelte-t0js42\">\n<div class=\"meta svelte-t0js42\">\n<div class=\"authors svelte-t0js42\"><a href=\"\/author\/1839\" rel=\"author\" class=\"svelte-t0js42\">Lauren\u021biu Sfinte\u0219<\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tags svelte-12okeyl\"><span class=\"tags-label metaFont svelte-12okeyl\">Cite\u0219te mai multe despre<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"tags-list svelte-12okeyl\"><a href=\"\/tag\/rusia\" title=\"Ultimele \u0219tiri despre rusia\" class=\"tag-pill svelte-12okeyl\">rusia<\/a><a href=\"\/tag\/ucraina\" title=\"Ultimele \u0219tiri despre ucraina\" class=\"tag-pill svelte-12okeyl\">ucraina<\/a><a href=\"\/tag\/europa\" title=\"Ultimele \u0219tiri despre europa\" class=\"tag-pill svelte-12okeyl\">europa<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a class=\"moreFromCategory svelte-t0js42\" href=\"\/blogurile-adevarul\" title=\"Opinii\">Mai multe din <strong class=\"svelte-t0js42\">Opinii<\/strong> \u203a<\/a><\/footer>\n<\/article>\n<p>[analyse_source url=&#8221;https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/blogurile-adevarul\/toti-declara-ca-nu-vor-razboiul-majoritatea-crede-2539714.html&#8221;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/cdn.adh.reperio.news\/image-b\/b7e9f21c-2cbf-4c3b-b832-8b41f514f2d5\/index.jpeg?p=f%3Djpeg%26w%3D1200%26h%3D630%26r%3Dcover&#8221;] Home Opinii To\u021bi declar\u0103 c\u0103 nu vor r\u0103zboiul. Majoritatea crede c\u0103 e inevitabil Foto: Twitter \/ X C\u00e2teva note despre r\u0103zboi, \u00een general, c\u00e2teva flash-uri despre r\u0103zboiul din Ucraina, \u00een special Nota 1. Pe vremuri, drumul c\u0103tre r\u0103zboi era lung. Antipatiile \u0219i adversit\u0103\u021bile dintre lideri \u0219i dintre state aveau nevoie de ani [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[89],"tags":[19,226],"class_list":["post-2018387","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-romania","tag-adevarul","tag-crawlmanager"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2018387","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2018387"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2018387\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2018387"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2018387"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2018387"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}