{"id":2004523,"date":"2026-06-22T14:45:37","date_gmt":"2026-06-22T11:45:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2004523"},"modified":"2026-06-22T14:45:37","modified_gmt":"2026-06-22T11:45:37","slug":"the-bounce-nba-offseason-moves-are-beginning-plus-my-draft-sleepers-and-busts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2004523","title":{"rendered":"The Bounce: NBA offseason moves are beginning. Plus, my draft sleepers and busts"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The Bounce Newslette<\/b>r<\/strong>\u00a0\":basketball:\"<\/span>\u00a0| This is The Athletic\u2019s<\/em> daily NBA newsletter.\u00a0Sign up here<\/a>\u00a0to receive The Bounce directly in your inbox.<\/p>\n

If you\u2019re wondering when Giannis Antetokounmpo might be traded, I will be on a flight around 8:15 p.m. ET today. It\u2019s a four-hour flight. I would put my money on the trade happening during that window.<\/p>\n

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Free agency<\/h3>\n

Early re-signings \u2014 and a trade!<\/strong><\/p>\n

Even though free agency doesn\u2019t officially begin until June 30 at 6 p.m. ET, the action has already very much begun. Currently, teams are allowed to speak to their own free agents to try to reach deals. Of course, we know that those discussions with all sorts of teams have been going on for months behind closed doors. It\u2019s just a matter of whether the discussions worked to poach a free agent away when the window officially opens.<\/p>\n

In the meantime, the NBA Draft starts tomorrow, and teams can go wild with some trades. We\u2019re all still waiting for a Giannis trade. To where? No clue. But we\u2019re pretty sure something will happen! We had some news surface about some re-signings over the weekend, and a Western Conference contender made a trade. Let\u2019s go over everything you need to know so far.<\/p>\n

Hawks expected to <\/strong>re-sign CJ McCollum for one year and $21 million<\/strong><\/a>: <\/strong>Excellent signing for Atlanta without any major options to replace McCollum on the free-agency market. He\u2019ll make $9 million less than he did last year, and it\u2019s just one year.<\/p>\n

Grade: <\/strong>A<\/p>\n

Team\u2019s remaining needs: <\/strong>A big man, more of a playmaking lead guard and more shooting.<\/p>\n

Suns expected to re-sign Collin Gillespie for <\/strong>four years and $48 million<\/strong><\/a>: <\/strong>If Gillespie continues to improve, this is more of an A grade. Securing him for four years for less than the mid-level could end up being one of the better bench player contracts in the league. No reported options on the deal.<\/p>\n

Grade: <\/strong>B+<\/p>\n

Team\u2019s remaining needs: <\/strong>Quality big men and forwards who can score.<\/p>\n

Suns expected to re-sign Jordan Goodwin for three years and $19 million: <\/strong>For a guy who has bounced around a bit, this is nice security for him. For the Suns, grabbing your eighth or ninth guy for about $6 million per season is good quality. He just hasn\u2019t quite shown enough yet to be certain he\u2019ll stick in the rotation.<\/p>\n

Grade: <\/strong>A-<\/p>\n

Team\u2019s remaining needs: <\/strong>Quality big men and forwards who can score.<\/p>\n

The Hawks are also reportedly trading <\/strong>two second-round picks to the Thunder for Aaron Wiggins<\/strong><\/a>:<\/strong><\/p>\n

I love this pickup for the Hawks. Wiggins is a quality defender on the perimeter, has decent playoff experience and can really shoot the ball. This is a cap move for the Thunder. By shedding his $9 million salary for next season, they move down to roughly $19 million into the second apron and $32 million into the first apron. This could save the Thunder $60 million in tax penalties and opens a spot on the roster.<\/strong> They have the 12th, 17th and 37th picks in the draft with 14 players under contract.<\/p>\n

Grades: A for Atlanta, C- for OKC<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

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The last 24<\/h3>\n

\ud83e\udd2f Chaos. <\/strong>The NBA Draft doesn\u2019t always go the way we think it might. So I came up with a chaos mock draft<\/strong><\/a>.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\ud83d\udcc8 Top 75! <\/strong>John Hollinger has given his top 75 prospects for the NBA Draft. Cameron Boozer is tops<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\ud83c\udfc0 <\/strong>Developing story. <\/strong>Our Law Murray is ranking the young cores for every team in the league. First up: the West<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\ud83e\udd14 Is it possible? <\/strong>The Cavs and Spurs both thought they outplayed the Knicks. Why do they feel this way<\/strong><\/a>?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Stream the NBA on Fubo (<\/em>try it for free!<\/a>)<\/em>\u00a0and catch out-of-market games on\u00a0<\/em>League Pass<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Too big to fail?<\/h3>\n

How often does a loaded draft deliver?<\/strong><\/p>\n

What does a loaded draft class actually mean? What does a \u201ccan\u2019t miss\u201d set of players truly look like? That\u2019s what we\u2019ve heard and reiterated about this 2026 class, thanks to BYU\u2019s AJ Dybantsa, Kansas\u2019 Darryn Peterson and Duke\u2019s Boozer. North Carolina\u2019s Caleb Wilson emerged early in the college season as a fourth guy, but it\u2019s been about those top three players.<\/p>\n

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{“endpoint”:”https:\/\/api-prd-nyt.theathletic.com\/graphql”}<\/p>\n

It\u2019s made me wonder when we have at least three top prospects, how often does this work out with everybody as a great pick? We can quibble over who was and wasn\u2019t a \u201ccan\u2019t miss\u201d prospect, but I\u2019m operating on what the consensus seemed to be at the time of those drafts.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s look at the 20 years from 2003 to 2022.<\/p>\n

2003: LeBron James | Darko Mili\u010di\u0107 | Carmelo Anthony<\/strong><\/p>\n

Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade were also in this draft class, and it\u2019s funny that Maciej Lampe was thought of as a top-five guy at one point. Darko was the big bust, but the other four ended up being easy hits in this loaded class. Hit rate: 4\/5.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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2004: Dwight Howard | Emeka Okafor | Ben Gordon<\/strong><\/p>\n

Maybe you\u2019d want to include Shaun Livingston with these guys, but this was mostly a three-person top of the class. Okafor wasn\u2019t the franchise guy he was presumed to be, and Gordon had a nice, long career. Howard more than cleared his potential. Hit rate: 2\/3.<\/strong><\/p>\n

2008: Derrick Rose | Michael Beasley | O.J. Mayo<\/strong><\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think we can include Russell Westbrook and Kevin Love in this because they weren\u2019t surefire prospects. But Rose versus Beasley was a legitimate debate, and Mayo was a year away from being a monster prospect. Hit rate: 1\/3.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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2014: Andrew Wiggins | Jabari Parker | Joel Embiid<\/strong><\/p>\n

This actually ran about seven deep with the hype around Aaron Gordon, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart and Julius Randle. Only Parker and Exum were definite busts, because of injuries. Everybody else has had very good careers. Hit rate: 5\/7.<\/strong><\/p>\n

2015: Karl-Anthony Towns | Jahlil Okafor | D\u2019Angelo Russell<\/strong><\/p>\n

There was some good hype around Kristaps Porzi\u0146\u0123is, as well. Towns and Porzi\u0146\u0123is have delivered. Russell made an All-Star team. Okafor was out of the league pretty quickly. Hit rate: 3\/4.<\/strong><\/p>\n

2017: Markelle Fultz | Lonzo Ball | Jayson Tatum<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tons of hype around these three guys, and only Tatum has really delivered. Ball has had too many injuries, and Fultz went through his own physical issues. Hit rate: 1\/3.<\/strong><\/p>\n

2018: Deandre Ayton | Marvin Bagley III | Luka Don\u010di\u0107\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Let\u2019s extend this to Jaren Jackson Jr. and Trae Young, as well. Some people were squirrelly about Mo Bamba, but we won\u2019t include him. Don\u010di\u0107, JJJ and Young have delivered. Bagley has not. Ayton is unlikely to. Hit rate: 3\/5.<\/strong><\/p>\n

2021: Cade Cunningham | Jalen Green | Evan Mobley<\/strong><\/p>\n

We should probably include Scottie Barnes and Jalen Suggs in the mix here. Everybody except Green has come through, although he still has plenty of time to get it together. Suggs has dealt with injuries but is still very important. Hit rate: 4\/5.<\/strong><\/p>\n

2022: Paolo Banchero | Chet Holmgren | Jabari Smith Jr.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

These three have all had interesting careers so far. Banchero is an All-Star. Holmgren is All-NBA and a champion. Smith isn\u2019t quite there, but he\u2019s good enough that I\u2019m willing to include him as making it. Hit rate: 3\/3.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Conclusion: <\/strong>This is a bit of a crude scientific experiment, sure. But for the most part, those top-three-heavy draft classes or the completely loaded classes near the top tend to produce good results \u2014 26 out of the 38 selections in these nine classes turned out well. In seven of those classes, more than half of the top prospects hit.<\/p>\n

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Washington, Utah and Memphis should feel pretty good about their selections tomorrow night. Chicago too. Of course, we would have said the same about some of the failed prospects mentioned here \u2026<\/p>\n

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\n Will Aday Mara be a bust? (Bob Donnan \/ Imagn Images)<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Draft predictions<\/h3>\n

My 4 sleepers and 4 busts<\/strong><\/p>\n

There are few better feelings in sports than telling people that an under-the-radar draft prospect is going to be awesome in the NBA and then that turns out to be true. But because we can be such a cynical bunch, a better feeling might be telling people that a highly touted player won\u2019t be good and then they end up being a bust. Is that mature? No. It\u2019s kind of true, though, right?<\/p>\n

We love a good \u201cI told you so\u201d when it comes to any predictions. With the start of the draft tomorrow, it feels like a good time to give some potential busts and sleepers in 2026.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s start with the guys I think could be potential busts. This is no offense to them. I just don\u2019t know that I trust their placement on draft boards and mock drafts versus what I expect them to be at the next level. Feel free to use this against me years from now. And, as always, check out Sam Vecenie\u2019s NBA Draft Guide<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Four potential busts<\/strong><\/p>\n

Keaton Wagler | Lead guard | Illinois: <\/strong>Wagler being so poorly recruited and then jumping up to a top half of the lottery guy in less than a year is an awesome story<\/a>. I have some questions about why all of a sudden he\u2019s this amazing prospect. If he can shoot and get past his defender, he\u2019ll be fine. I don\u2019t know that he\u2019s an NBA lead guard. Maybe he\u2019s better suited for off-ball at that level.<\/p>\n

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How Keaton Wagler came from out of nowhere to become a top NBA prospect<\/div>\n
Sam Vecenie<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
{“@context”:”https:\/\/schema.org”,”@type”:”VideoObject”,”@id”:”https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/video\/bq3dhgMmJiIx1sy\/”,”url”:”https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/video\/bq3dhgMmJiIx1sy\/”,”name”:”How Keaton Wagler came from out of nowhere to become a top NBA prospect”,”uploadDate”:”2026-06-09T19:46:49.591Z”,”duration”:”PT2M4S”,”thumbnailUrl”:”https:\/\/cdn-media.theathletic.com\/video-stream\/auto-thumbnail\/bq3dhgMmJiIx1sy\/e3lC1tYR7tJW.0000000.jpg”,”contentUrl”:”https:\/\/video.nyt.com\/athletic\/streams\/bq3dhgMmJiIx1sy\/e3lC1tYR7tJW\/e3lC1tYR7tJW.m3u8″,”transcript”:”We’ve arguably never had a bigger surprise top 10 prospect in the NBA draft than Illinois guard Keaton Wogler, a player ranked outside of the top 150 by major recruiting services, who emerged as an elite player as a freshman, led his team to the Final Four, and has scouts tantalized by his feel for the game and basketball IQ. Here’s why Wogler is going to be picked very high in the 2026 NBA draft. Wagler started the season as more of a wing but moved over to the primary lead guard role for Illinois in early December. From that point forward, Illinois. No season took off and Wogler was the key reason why. The teenager averaged 19 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists while shooting 45% from the field, 41% from 3, and 79% from the line in his final 28 games and basically matched those numbers across Illinois’s run to the Final Four. At 6’5, Wagler isn’t all that explosive, but he plays with incredible poise and unselfishness. He’s a constant threat to pull up and drill a jumper, and he keeps his team in perfect rhythm as he led the Ilia to the number one offense in all of college basketball this season. Here. Some examples of why Wogler is going to go in the top 10. No player in this class uses the threat of his jumper better than Wogler. His favorite move is a simple jab step right, right to left crossover, stepback jumper for 3 that always catches defenders off balance. It’s quick and it allows him to get that space for that lethal pull up like we see here. But if the shot isn’t there, Wagler has the ability to jab step and use his handle to get by smaller defenders using his long strides to cover ground quickly. Does that here against Jacoby Gillespie and other. Prospect in this class. Wagler is also a lights-out shooter off the catch and very good at understanding space, knowing exactly where to settle for catch and shoot threes. He made both his catch and shoot attempts and his pull-up attempts at about a 40% clip this season. Wagler is a hard player to compare to others, but the closest I’ve been able to come up with is something similar to Austin Reeves due to his shiftiness, unselfish play, and ability to weaponize his pull-up jumper with herky jerky ball handling ability. But Wagler’s passing unselfishness and playmaking, I think really stands out as well.”,”ineligibleRegion”:[“BI”,”BY”,”CD”,”CF”,”CU”,”IQ”,”IR”,”KP”,”LB”,”LY”,”ML”,”NI”,”RU”,”SD”,”SO”,”SS”,”SY”,”UA”,”VE”,”YE”,”ZW”],”publisher”:{“@type”:”NewsMediaOrganization”,”@id”:”https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/#publisher”,”name”:”The Athletic”,”url”:”https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/”,”foundingDate”:”2016-01-25″,”logo”:{“@type”:”ImageObject”,”@id”:”https:\/\/theathletic.com\/app\/themes\/athletic\/assets\/img\/the-athletic-wordmark-black.png”,”url”:”https:\/\/theathletic.com\/app\/themes\/athletic\/assets\/img\/the-athletic-wordmark-black.png”,”contentUrl”:”https:\/\/theathletic.com\/app\/themes\/athletic\/assets\/img\/the-athletic-wordmark-black.png”,”creditText”:”The Athletic”,”height”:”60″,”width”:”435″},”publishingPrinciples”:”https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/edit-guidelines\/”,”sameAs”:”https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/The_Athletic”},”author”:[{“@type”:”Person”,”name”:”Sam Vecenie”}]}<\/p>\n
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