{"id":2004048,"date":"2026-06-22T08:49:07","date_gmt":"2026-06-22T05:49:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2004048"},"modified":"2026-06-22T08:49:07","modified_gmt":"2026-06-22T05:49:07","slug":"who-will-win-the-tour-de-france-we-rank-the-favorites","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=2004048","title":{"rendered":"Who Will Win the Tour de France: We Rank the Favorites"},"content":{"rendered":"

[analyse_image type=”featured” src=”https:\/\/velo-cdn.outsideonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GettyImages-2160438721-scaled.jpg”]<\/p>\n

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Jim Cotton<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Updated June 22, 2026 03:33AM<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Who will win the Tour de France?<\/p>\n

We\u2019re finally at a point to lay our bets.<\/p>\n

Key altitude camps have been ticked-off.<\/p>\n

Tune-up races are done.<\/p>\n

All that\u2019s left for Tadej Poga\u010dar and the favorites to do before the grand d\u00e9part<\/em> on July 4 is a couple of sharpening workouts, a bit of recon, and taper.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s our yellow jersey form guide and power ranking, based on a magic formula of recent results, team strength, and editorial \u201csense.\u201d<\/p>\n

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1. Tadej Poga\u010dar (UAE Emirates-XRG), 27<\/h2>\n
\"Tadej
Tadej Poga\u010dar is chasing a record-equaling fifth yellow jersey, and it might be foolish to bet against him pulling it off.<\/span> (Photo: LOIC VENANCE\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
    \n
  • 11 single-day victories and 2 GC wins in 11 race days<\/li>\n
  • Overall victory at Tour de Suisse, Tour de Romandie<\/li>\n
  • Victories at Strade Bianche, Milan-San Remo, Tour of Flanders, Li\u00e8ge-Bastogne-Li\u00e8ge<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    The golden rule of modern cycling? Never bet against Tadej Poga\u010dar.<\/p>\n

    The Slovenian just plowed through yet another near-perfect season and rates himself fitter than ever. His grip on the WorldTour shows no signs of loosening.<\/p>\n

    A record-equalling fifth Tour de France title is at his fingertips.<\/p>\n

    OK, so there are some<\/em> question marks for the Tour\u2019s two-time defending champion.<\/p>\n

    Jonas Vingegaard looks better than ever, and Poga\u010dar hasn\u2019t truly been tested in a GC context this year. His opposition in Romandie and Switzerland were \u2013 no offense \u2013 hardly A-Tier.<\/p>\n

    And who knows?<\/p>\n

    Pogi may find himself distracted by the injury of his partner, Ur\u0161ka \u017digart. Or the ennui<\/em> that zapped him in the back half of last year\u2019s race may resurface.<\/p>\n

    But we\u2019re clutching at straws here.<\/p>\n

    Don\u2019t bet against Tadej Poga\u010dar, and don\u2019t do it at the 2026 Tour de France.<\/p>\n

    2. Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike), 29<\/h2>\n
    \"Jonas
    Jonas Vingegaard completed the grand tour sweep at the Giro d\u2019Italia and is now chasing the Giro-Tour double.<\/span> (Photo: Luca Bettini \/ AFP via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
      \n
    • Overall victory at Paris-Nice, Volta a Catalunya, Giro d\u2019Italia<\/li>\n
    • 9 stage wins across the above 3 stage-races<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Jonas Vingegaard might be back to his best. Maybe even back to his Tour de France-winning vintage of 2022 and 2023.<\/p>\n

      He just won the Giro d\u2019Italia without really trying, and completed a season-long stage-racing unbeaten streak while he was at it.<\/p>\n

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      And for the first time in two years, the Dane powers toward the grand d\u00e9part<\/em> without the hangover of recent injuries and training disruptions.<\/p>\n

      It looks like Vingegaard could have cut his gap to Poga\u010dar in 2026.<\/p>\n

      But, without having seen him square up to his arch-rival since last year\u2019s Tour de France, it\u2019s hard to believe the Dane has eliminated the deficit altogether.<\/p>\n

      3. Isaac Del Toro (UAE Emirates-XRG), 22<\/h2>\n
      \"Isaac
      Isaac del Toro is on a tear of GC and single-stage victories that his idol Poga\u010dar would be proud of. (Dario Belingheri\/Getty Images)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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      • Overall victories at UAE Tour, Tirreno-Adriatico, Tour Auvergne-Rh\u00f4nes-Alpes<\/li>\n
      • 5 stage wins across the above 3 stage-races<\/li>\n
      • 3rd at Strade Bianche<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        Isaac del Toro deserves a lot more hype. The Mexican sensation was overshadowed this season by the phenomenal rise of Paul Seixas.<\/p>\n

        But Del Toro proved this year he\u2019s the real deal. He won every stage-race he finished and blew everybody off his wheel at the<\/em> Tour de France tune-up race, the Dauphin\u00e9.<\/p>\n

        The only thing holding back Del Toro as he romps into his Tour de France debut?<\/p>\n

        Tadej Poga\u010dar.<\/p>\n

        The superdomestique\u2019s fate might be intertwined with that of his Merckxian leader.<\/p>\n

        If Del Toro doesn\u2019t get stuck serving bottles to King Pog, it\u2019s hard to see anybody coming near him.<\/p>\n

        The battle for fourth: Florian Lipowitz vs. Paul Seixas<\/h2>\n
        \"The
        Paul Seixas is one of the most exciting Tour de France debutants in years.<\/span> (Photo: Dario Belingheri\/Getty Images))<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

        Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), 25<\/strong><\/p>\n

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        • Top-3 overall at Volta a Catalunya, Itzulia Basque Country, Tour de Romandie<\/li>\n
        • Overall victory at Tour of Slovenia<\/li>\n
        • 2 stage wins across the above stage-races<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

          Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA-CGM), 19<\/strong><\/p>\n

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          • Overall victory at Izulia Basque Country, 2nd at Volta ao Algarve<\/li>\n
          • 4 stage wins across the above stage-races<\/li>\n
          • Victory at La Fl\u00e8che Wallonne, 2nd at Strade Bianche and Li\u00e8ge-Bastogne-Li\u00e8ge<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

            The chase for fourth will be a battle between Mr. Unspectacularly Consistent and the most exciting, unproven talent the Tour has seen in years: Florian Lipowitz vs. Paul Seixas.<\/p>\n

            Lipowitz just doesn\u2019t miss, and he doesn\u2019t have any obvious weakness, either.<\/p>\n

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            After a slow start to the season at the Volta ao Algarve, he hit the podium of every stage-race he started. A dominant victory at the Tour of Slovenia put an exclamation point on it for the German star.<\/p>\n

            But Lipowitz lacks the magic sparkle Seixas has so much of. He\u2019s never shown a hint of yellow jersey pedigree.<\/p>\n

            By contrast, the sky might be the limit for Seixas, a French phenom who\u2019s inspired hope in an entire nation.<\/p>\n

            He showed in skirmishes with Poga\u010dar at Strade Bianche and Li\u00e8ge-Bastogne-Li\u00e8ge he\u2019s afraid of nobody. And he\u2019s definitely got the physiology to pull off such youthful swagger.<\/p>\n

            Seixas has all the tools to win the Tour de France.<\/p>\n

            But it won\u2019t be this year.<\/p>\n

            So much can go wrong for him as he shoulders the weight of a nation in not only his first Tour de France, but his first-ever grand tour.<\/p>\n

            That said, if Seixas can deflect the home hype and race fault-free this summer, he could cause trouble for even his most experienced rivals.<\/p>\n

            Leading the race for sixth: Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), 26<\/h2>\n
            \"Evenepoel
            Remco Evenepoel can crush anybody in a one-day race. Can he translate that to the Tour de France?<\/span> (Photo: Luc Claessen\/Getty Images))<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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            • Victory and 2 stage wins at the Volta a Valenciana<\/li>\n
            • Victory at Amstel Gold Race<\/li>\n
            • 3rd at Tour of Flanders, Li\u00e8ge-Bastogne-Li\u00e8ge<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

              Time to address the elephant in the ranking.<\/p>\n

              Where\u2019s Remco?<\/p>\n

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              On his day, Remco Evenepoel is one of the best in the world. He reasserted that pedigree this year at the Amstel Gold Race.<\/p>\n

              But the Olympic champion\u2019s GC resume for 2026 says it all.<\/p>\n

              Victory at Valenciana, a disappointing 10th in the heat and steeps of the UAE Tour, and a typically dramatic 5th at the Volta a Catalunya.<\/p>\n

              Evenepoel is a stage-racing wildcard that contrasts the steady hand of his teammate Lipowitz.<\/p>\n

              If Evenepoel fixed his stage-racing faults in his controversial two-month training camp, he could swing for the podium at this Tour de France.<\/p>\n

              If not? He might finish 6th, 60th, or not even see the finish in Paris.<\/p>\n

              Chasing a Tour de France top-10<\/h2>\n
              \"Jorgenson
              Jorgenson finished top-10 of the last two Tours de France. He\u2019s got the form to do it again.<\/span> (Photo: Anne-Christine POUJOULAT \/ AFP via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

              Lastly, shout-out to the dark horses, outsiders, and superdomestiques who will be in the GC mix.<\/p>\n

              Here\u2019s the chasing pack, in approximate order of Tour de France potential:<\/p>\n

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              • Juan Ayuso (Lidl-Trek)<\/li>\n
              • Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility)<\/li>\n
              • Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-Lease a Bike)<\/li>\n
              • Lenny Martinez (Bahrain-Victorious)<\/li>\n
              • Cian Uijtdebroeks (Movistar)<\/li>\n
              • Tom Pidcock (Pinarello Q36.5)<\/li>\n
              • Richard Carapaz (EF Education EasyPost<\/li>\n
              • K\u00e9vin Vauquelin (Netcompany Ineos)<\/li>\n
              • Sepp Kuss (Visma-Lease a Bike)<\/li>\n
              • Oscar Onley (Netcompany Ineos)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
                \n
                \n
                Jim Cotton<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
                Updated June 22, 2026 03:33AM<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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                [analyse_image type=”featured” src=”https:\/\/velo-cdn.outsideonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GettyImages-2160438721-scaled.jpg”] Jim Cotton Updated June 22, 2026 03:33AM Who will win the Tour de France? We\u2019re finally at a point to lay our bets. Key altitude camps have been ticked-off. Tune-up races are done. All that\u2019s left for Tadej Poga\u010dar and the favorites to do before the grand d\u00e9part on July 4 is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[226,71],"class_list":["post-2004048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","tag-crawlmanager","tag-velo-outsideonline-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2004048","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2004048"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2004048\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2004048"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2004048"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2004048"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}