{"id":1962436,"date":"2026-05-29T19:59:46","date_gmt":"2026-05-29T16:59:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1962436"},"modified":"2026-05-29T19:59:46","modified_gmt":"2026-05-29T16:59:46","slug":"who-will-win-thunder-spurs-game-7-who-is-feeling-the-pressure-our-staff-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1962436","title":{"rendered":"Who will win Thunder-Spurs Game 7? Who is feeling the pressure? Our staff predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"
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This always felt inevitable.<\/p>\n

Of course there would be seven games played between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs. NBA fans deserve no less than the full dose of the reigning champs vs. Victor Wembanyama. As our John Hollinger wrote<\/a>, this matchup looks set to be this generation\u2019s Lakers-Celtics.<\/p>\n

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So, going into Saturday night\u2019s mammoth Game 7 in Oklahoma City, 11 Athletic<\/em> NBA writers predicted what we might see and who is feeling the pressure.<\/p>\n

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Who will win Game 7?<\/h2>\n

The pick: Spurs<\/strong> (6 of 11 votes).<\/em><\/p>\n

The case for San Antonio\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n

Mike Vorkunov<\/strong>: Right now the Spurs seem healthier. Who knows what, if anything, the Thunder can get from Jalen Williams in Game 7. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is healthy but he\u2019s been in a hell in a cell against this Spurs defense. They\u2019ve defended him with a slew of big, fast wings and guards, and Victor Wembanyama on the back line, like a lumberjack match.<\/p>\n

Dan Woike<\/strong>: Since the \u201chard foul\u201d order from Wembanyama, San Antonio has been the more physical team and the Thunder haven\u2019t responded. The fact that no one mustered up any kind of receipt makes me tilt this in San Antonio\u2019s favor.<\/p>\n

Jared Weiss<\/strong>: Wembanyama finding his outside shot to unlock things early could be the final adjustment that shifts this series. If that shot is going down, the Thunder don\u2019t have a viable counter to adjust to it. Nobody does. If they sell out to take the shot away, the lane is far too open for the Spurs to take advantage. It\u2019s a big bet to presume Wembanyama will have two complete games in a row, but I\u2019m taking it.<\/p>\n

Zach Harper<\/strong>: Wemby won\u2019t talk much now, so I assume he\u2019s hyper-focused.<\/p>\n

The case for OKC\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n

Marcus Thompson II<\/strong>: They\u2019re at home. They have the experience edge. And Wembanyama hasn\u2019t put together consecutive dominant games yet.<\/p>\n

Christian Clark<\/strong>: The Thunder in the past two years are 17-3 with a +17.9 point differential at Paycom Center in the postseason.<\/p>\n

Joel Lorenzi<\/strong>: The Thunder deserve the benefit of the doubt because they\u2019ve been here before. It\u2019s taken incredible lengths to beat them on their home floor these past two seasons \u2014 usually a game-winner or, in this series, double-overtime. While they\u2019ve never needed to find a knockout punch for this caliber of a defense, they\u2019ve historically responded well in Game 7s.<\/p>\n

David Aldridge<\/strong>: Institutional Game 7 memory.<\/p>\n

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What You Should Read Next<\/div>\n
\n \"Thunder<\/p>\n
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\n Thunder vs. Spurs Game 7 odds: Oklahoma City favored with spot in NBA Finals on the line\n <\/div>\n
\n The Thunder are favored to beat the Spurs in Game 7 of the Western Conference finals.\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

Who should be feeling the most Game 7 pressure?<\/h2>\n

The pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander<\/strong> (6 of 11 votes). Runners-up: Chet Holmgren; the entire Thunder team (2 votes each).<\/em><\/p>\n

Why SGA should be feeling the pressure\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n

Lorenzi<\/strong>: He\u2019s had a fairly good case for being the best player in the world for the past year and change. But Wembanyama is threatening the pecking order, appearing like the best player on the floor in multiple games while the Spurs limit SGA to a degree no team has. Game 7 won\u2019t just decide whether SGA\u2019s title defense falls short. With Jalen Williams impaired and Ajay Mitchell unavailable, an act of heroics in this spot would undoubtedly boost SGA\u2019s legacy.<\/p>\n

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Woike<\/strong>: He\u2019s the MVP, he\u2019s been in a miserable rhythm and his overall game has been dissected on a national scale.<\/p>\n

Jon Krawczynski<\/strong>: It hasn\u2019t been a great series for the two-time MVP. His 24.3 points per game are his lowest average since the 2020 playoffs. He is shooting 38 percent from the field, including 26 percent from 3. All of the playmaking is on his shoulders, but that is the burden of being the MVP. He has to play better for OKC to have a chance.<\/p>\n

Vorkunov<\/strong>: It has to be SGA. The playmaking burden is going to be all on him again. J-Dub is hurt. Jared McCain is a sidekick. And SGA has to do it against a team that has flummoxed him for six games. Somebody has to make the points happen for OKC and all arrows are pointing at the back-to-back MVP.<\/p>\n

Sam Amick<\/strong>: If SGA can put his finishing touches on this series, outplaying Wemby and the Spurs with the kind of performance befitting his stature, then it\u2019s an all\u2019s-well-that-ends-well sort of scenario. But if Game 7 looks anything like Game 1, when Wemby ruled the day and spoiled SGA\u2019s trophy ceremony, then his place in the league\u2019s power structure will take a serious hit.<\/p>\n

Thompson<\/strong>: A two-time MVP will have a hard time living down not showing up in a Game 7.<\/p>\n

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What You Should Read Next<\/div>\n
\n \"Thunder\u2019s<\/p>\n
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\n Thunder\u2019s potential dynasty faces inflection point after Game 6 loss to Spurs\n <\/div>\n
\n \u201cWe had a chance to turn the game,\u201d Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said. \u201cYou can\u2019t wait for the game to turn.\u201d\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

Other choices\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n

Jason Jones<\/strong>: Chet Holmgren. He\u2019s an All-Star one of the league\u2019s emerging big men. He\u2019s not expected to post Wembanyama-like stats, but he has to have a bigger impact than he\u2019s had most of the series to give OKC their best chance to win.<\/p>\n

Harper<\/strong>: Chet Holmgren. He\u2019s been mostly insignificant and if the Thunder have to make salary decisions down the line, maybe this helps him get shipped to a bad team in a salary dump.<\/p>\n

Weiss<\/strong>: The Thunder. This could be their last chance to have the upper hand on the league for a few reasons. First off, the Spurs are likely getting better next season with their development and the vast experience they have gained from this battle. Then there is the public outcry over the Thunder\u2019s perceived flopping, which could shift the way they are officiated in the future. Hopefully, this rivalry remains competitive for a long time, but the Thunder may be the underdog after this Game 7.<\/p>\n

Aldridge<\/strong>: The Thunder. Once you are a champion, you want to stay one.<\/p>\n

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Clark<\/strong>: Luguentz Dort. The Thunder have gotten outscored by 54 points with him on the floor in this series. He\u2019s shot 4 of 22 from 3. I\u2019m sure the Spurs will be content to let him launch from deep. Can he make a few shots?<\/p>\n

Who is the X-factor heading into Game 7?<\/h2>\n

The pick: Dylan Harper<\/strong> (3 of 11 votes). Runner-up: Luke Kornet (2 votes).<\/em><\/p>\n

The case for Harper\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n

Woike<\/strong>: He opened the series with a masterpiece and has the kind of physicality and maturity to his game to stand up to this moment.<\/p>\n

Clark<\/strong>: The Spurs rookie is a standout. He was sensational in Games 1 and Game 6, and pretty quiet in between. If he plays well, I think San Antonio wins.<\/p>\n

Lorenzi<\/strong>: It was his combination of poise and shotmaking, along with Wembanyama\u2019s confidence and production, that sent OKC packing early in Game 6. His order and continuation of the offense allowed San Antonio to keep responding, necessary for a Thunder team that\u2019s shown the capability to conjure answers from almost anywhere.<\/p>\n

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The other choices\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n

Harper<\/strong>: Luke Kornet. If the Spurs can survive the non-Wemby minutes, then they can win this game.<\/p>\n

Vorkunov<\/strong>: Kornet has struggled this series. How much and how well he plays in Game 7 will matter.<\/p>\n

Thompson<\/strong>: Stephon Castle. When he plays well, it impacts both ends and really complements Wemby. The Spurs need Castle to have a big road game.<\/p>\n

Jones<\/strong>: De\u2019Aaron Fox. This is the second Game 7 in his career and he\u2019s played through an ankle injury. If there\u2019s a time for the 2023 Clutch Player of the Year to break out, it\u2019s Game 7.<\/p>\n

Weiss<\/strong>: Alex Caruso. He has been a scoring machine when the Thunder have won and an offensive ghost when they\u2019ve lost. The Thunder need to win the 3-point battle and his big shooting nights have been what\u2019s kept them afloat.<\/p>\n

Krawczynski<\/strong>: OKC\u2019s 3-point shooting. The variance has been a rollercoaster in this series. The Thunder shot 45 percent from deep in a Game 3 win, 18 percent in the Game 4 loss, 44 percent in the Game 5 win and 25 percent in the Game 6 loss. Role players usually shoot better at home, and they\u2019re going to have to. If they shoot it poorly again, it\u2019s hard to see how they win.<\/p>\n

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Amick<\/strong>: It\u2019s a little unorthodox to go with a superstar in any X-factor discussion, but Wembanyama has been so inconsistent in this series that it\u2019s hard to pick anyone else. When he\u2019s on \u2014 engaged, aggressive, and hitting that 3 that he falls in love with from time to time \u2014 it feels like he can decide the outcome all by himself. But he has disappeared at times in this series, too, especially on the boards. Wemby will either win the day, and the series, or endure a painful loss that only makes him better.<\/p>\n

What is your biggest takeaway from Spurs-Thunder so far?<\/h2>\n

Krawczynski<\/strong>: This has been the battle I was hoping to see. Yes, the margins have been bigger than I expected, for the most part. But that is what can happen when a great team gets rolling. There have been huge swings back and forth in this series. Two extremely well-coached, prideful squads are throwing punches. I\u2019ve loved watching it.<\/p>\n

Vorkunov<\/strong>: This is gonna be so much fun for the next few years. And I\u2019m already thinking about what the next stage of this rivalry looks like next season as the teams inevitably try to level up to beat the other.<\/p>\n

Harper<\/strong>: I want this matchup in the playoffs for the next decade. And I want it going seven every time. This is the best matchup in basketball.<\/p>\n

Aldridge<\/strong>: I can\u2019t wait until these two teams truly hate each other in a few years. Playing one another for titles year after year does that.<\/p>\n

Woike<\/strong>: These two teams are miles ahead of the pack in the West.<\/p>\n

Clark<\/strong>: Victor Wembanyama is the best player in the league, and his offensive game isn\u2019t that refined yet. He needs to develop a few go-to moves inside the arc. It\u2019s scary how much better he can get when, at 22 years old, he\u2019s already more impactful than anyone else.<\/p>\n

Thompson<\/strong>: Wembanyama is a menace.<\/p>\n

Jones<\/strong>: Wembanyama\u2019s aggressiveness on offense is the deciding factor. He has to learn how to maintain it consistently.<\/p>\n

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What You Should Read Next<\/div>\n
\n \"Victor<\/p>\n
\n
\n Victor Wembanyama didn\u2019t speak after Game 5. His Game 6 performance spoke volumes\n <\/div>\n
\n Wembanyama turned in a special performance in Thursday night’s 118-91 win that spoke volumes about his moxie.\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

Lorenzi<\/strong>: No team has ever defended SGA better.<\/p>\n

Weiss<\/strong>: After years of everyone focusing on the NBA being all about 3s, we\u2019ve suddenly woken up in a defensive era, which I love. Both of these teams are average shooting teams, but have deep defensive and playmaking depth. These games have been an onslaught of presses, traps and recoveries. It\u2019s been kind of a mess, which is what makes it such a curiosity. The suspense has been real over the course of the series.<\/p>\n

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Amick<\/strong>: That even with all the stars in this series, the NBA trend of depth being crucial remains intact. Any number of \u201cothers\u201d could wind up being the sort of X-factor that makes the difference.<\/p>\n

Which West team has the best chance of wedging its way into the OKC-San Antonio tier?<\/h2>\n

The pick: The Lakers<\/strong> (3 of 11 votes). Also in consideration: Utah, Minnesota, Denver, Dallas, Portland.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

The case for the Lakers\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n

Woike<\/strong>: If the Lakers can build a fully optimized roster around Luka Don\u010di\u0107, they\u2019ll have the best chance. You have to have an all-world player to have a shot against these teams and Luka and Nikola Joki\u0107 are the only two in the West.<\/p>\n

Krawczynski<\/strong>: The Lakers have Don\u010di\u0107, play in a city that attracts free agents and have some money to spend with a new, deep-pocketed ownership group. The Wolves have a path as well with Anthony Edwards, but they need to thread a needle with roster changes that will be tricky. The Lakers\u2019 pathway to contention is a little more straightforward.<\/p>\n

Clark<\/strong>: I\u2019ll say the Lakers because they have a top-five player in Don\u010di\u0107 who\u2019s only 27 years old. There is a lot of work to do to improve the roster around him, but I expect the Lakers to be aggressive this next year.<\/p>\n

The other choices\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n

Aldridge<\/strong>: Utah. Adding AJ Dybantsa or Darryn Peterson raises the ceiling for a team that has lots of promising young talent (Keyonte George, Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., Walker Kessler) and needs a centerpiece.<\/p>\n

Vorkunov<\/strong>: The Utah Jazz. They didn\u2019t tank all that time for nothing. Next year the Jazz will be big, young and dynamic. They get to add the No. 2 pick to Markkanen, Jackson, George and Ace Bailey. They still have more surplus picks left in the holster and an aggressive front office. They\u2019ll have to make a big leap but they should have the talent and the means to get there. It probably won\u2019t come in 2026-27 but if it comes, it\u2019ll happen sooner than you think. (Bonus pick: Don\u2019t overlook the Mavericks here).<\/p>\n

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Lorenzi<\/strong>: I\u2019m not sure how long it\u2019ll take, but I\u2019ll bet on the Mavericks making a bid at some point.<\/p>\n

Harper<\/strong>: Minnesota. This is a good playoff team but it needs to be fully healthy.<\/p>\n

Jones<\/strong>: There aren\u2019t any other teams that have the depth of OKC or San Antonio. The Lakers (Don\u010di\u0107) and Minnesota (Edwards) both have superstars with the ability to take over a series. It\u2019ll take a team with that kind of young star to knock off one of these teams.<\/p>\n

Weiss<\/strong>: Minnesota and Denver could get there with a retool, but we may have to look to rising franchises like Portland or even Utah as someone who can stake a claim down the road. But for next season, these two teams are looking primed to be the favorites again. Let\u2019s see where Giannis ends up first though.<\/p>\n

Amick<\/strong>: I still say Denver. They had a bad finish, and the moves they made last summer to strengthen the roster around Joki\u0107 didn\u2019t pan out as they\u2019d hoped. But they still have one of the game\u2019s greats, with an elite talent by his side in Jamal Murray, and will likely make more moves this offseason to try and return to that top tier.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This always felt inevitable. Of course there would be seven games played between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs. NBA fans deserve no less than the full dose of the reigning champs vs. Victor Wembanyama. As our John Hollinger wrote, this matchup looks set to be this generation\u2019s Lakers-Celtics. Advertisement So, going […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[226,241],"class_list":["post-1962436","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-crawlmanager","tag-nytimes-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1962436","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1962436"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1962436\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1962436"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1962436"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1962436"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}