{"id":1949318,"date":"2026-05-22T12:28:49","date_gmt":"2026-05-22T09:28:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1949318"},"modified":"2026-05-22T12:28:49","modified_gmt":"2026-05-22T09:28:49","slug":"strong-el-nino-predicted-for-winter-2026-27-this-is-what-skiers-need-to-know","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1949318","title":{"rendered":"Strong El Ni\u00f1o Predicted for Winter 2026-27 \u2014 This Is What Skiers Need to Know"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<figure id=\"attachment_406503\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-406503\" style=\"width: 1280px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-406503 lazyload\" src=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAoAAAAHvAQMAAAD+SfxyAAAABlBMVEUAAAD\/\/\/+l2Z\/dAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAAAlwSFlzAAAOxAAADsQBlSsOGwAAAD5JREFUeNrtwTEBAAAAwqD1T20LL6AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAICTAZyfAAFvrlOUAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\" alt=\"El Ni\u00f1o 2026-27 ski forecast NOAA temperature outlook map for December January February showing above-normal warmth across the northern tier\" width=\"640\" height=\"495\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/off07_temp-Large.jpeg?resize=640%2C495&amp;ssl=1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/off07_temp-Large.jpeg?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/off07_temp-Large.jpeg?resize=300%2C232&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/off07_temp-Large.jpeg?resize=1200%2C927&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/off07_temp-Large.jpeg?resize=768%2C593&amp;ssl=1 768w\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-eio-rwidth=\"640\" data-eio-rheight=\"495\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-406503\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/off07_temp-Large.jpeg?resize=640%2C495&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"El Ni\u00f1o 2026-27 ski forecast NOAA temperature outlook map for December January February showing above-normal warmth across the northern tier\" width=\"640\" height=\"495\" data-eio=\"l\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-406503\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">DJF Temperature Outlook. | Image: NOAA<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"code-block code-block-1\" style=\"margin: 8px auto;text-align: center;clear: both\">\n<!-- GAM 71161633\/SNWBR_snowbrains\/article_hrec_1 --><\/p>\n<div data-fuse=\"article_hrec_1\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>Yes, really.<\/strong> The 2025-26 ski season isn\u2019t even fully in the books yet, snowflakes are still falling at a handful of holdout resorts, and here we are already talking about next winter. But that\u2019s just who we are. <a href=\"http:\/\/cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\">NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center<\/a> dropped its latest long-lead seasonal outlook on May 21, and yes, forecasting seven-plus months ahead is more art than science. Take it with the appropriate pinch of salt. That said, El Ni\u00f1o is knocking on the door, the signal is unusually strong for this time of year, and if you\u2019re the kind of person who likes to plan your season around something more than a hunch, the El Ni\u00f1o 2026-27 ski forecast is already shaping up to be one worth following.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Related: <em><a href=\"https:\/\/snowbrains.com\/snowiest-ski-resorts-2025-26\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Top 9 Snowiest Ski Resorts in North America 2025-26 (So Far\u2026)<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><strong>Why the El Ni\u00f1o 2026-27 Ski Forecast Has More Signal Than Usual<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><strong>After a <a href=\"https:\/\/snowbrains.com\/noaa-2025-26-winter-forecast-la-nina-brings-big-snow-to-the-north\/\">neutral winter<\/a>, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific have been climbing steadily since March.<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/snowbrains.com\/la-nina-fades-as-noaa-forecasters-expect-el-nino-by-summer-with-significant-impact-on-winter-2026-27\/\">NOAA<\/a> now puts the odds of El Ni\u00f1o emerging by May-June-July at 82%, rising to a 96% chance it persists through the core of winter (December 2026\u2013February 2027). By fall, there\u2019s roughly a 2-in-3 chance it reaches \u201cstrong\u201d intensity; Ni\u00f1o 3.4 anomalies above +1.5\u00b0C. That\u2019s a significant signal, and at this long of a lead time (7+ months out), a robust El Ni\u00f1o is about the only climate driver that gives seasonal forecasts meaningful skill. The maps below are what it translates to for snow country.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Temperature and Precipitation: Reading the Two Maps That Matter<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><strong>The temperature story is unambiguous: above-normal warmth is favored virtually everywhere that matters to skiers, all winter long.<\/strong> The northern tier (Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes, and northern New England) faces the strongest warm signal, with probabilities exceeding 50% above normal in December-January-February. The southern tier shows more uncertainty, but there\u2019s no meaningful cold signal anywhere.<\/p>\n<p><strong>On precipitation, the pattern is the classic El Ni\u00f1o split:<\/strong> dry in the northwest, wet in the south. The West Coast and northern Rockies face suppressed precipitation, particularly in the early season (Oct-Nov-Dec through Nov-Dec-Jan). The southern tier (Southwest, southern Plains, and Southeast) leans wetter-than-normal.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Here\u2019s what that means region by region:<\/strong><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_406504\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-406504\" style=\"width: 1280px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-406504 lazyload\" src=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAoAAAAHvAQMAAAD+SfxyAAAABlBMVEUAAAD\/\/\/+l2Z\/dAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAAAlwSFlzAAAOxAAADsQBlSsOGwAAAD5JREFUeNrtwTEBAAAAwqD1T20LL6AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAICTAZyfAAFvrlOUAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\" alt=\"El Ni\u00f1o 2026-27 ski forecast NOAA precipitation outlook map for December January February showing below-normal precip in northern Rockies and above-normal in the Southeast\" width=\"640\" height=\"495\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/off07_prcp-Large.jpeg?resize=640%2C495&amp;ssl=1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/off07_prcp-Large.jpeg?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/off07_prcp-Large.jpeg?resize=300%2C232&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/off07_prcp-Large.jpeg?resize=1200%2C927&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/off07_prcp-Large.jpeg?resize=768%2C593&amp;ssl=1 768w\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-eio-rwidth=\"640\" data-eio-rheight=\"495\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-406504\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/off07_prcp-Large.jpeg?resize=640%2C495&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"El Ni\u00f1o 2026-27 ski forecast NOAA precipitation outlook map for December January February showing below-normal precip in northern Rockies and above-normal in the Southeast\" width=\"640\" height=\"495\" data-eio=\"l\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-406504\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">DJF Precipitation Outlook. | Image: NOAA<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>El Ni\u00f1o 2026-27 Ski Forecast for the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies<\/strong><\/h3>\n<h3><strong>Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><strong>This is the toughest outlook on the map.<\/strong> The PNW carries the darkest orange on the temperature charts all winter, the highest confidence for above-normal warmth anywhere in the contiguous US, with 60-70%+ probability in the DJF period. Combine that with below-normal precipitation expected through at least November-December-January, and the early season picture is difficult. Snowpack development is likely to be slow. Elevation will matter more than ever; higher terrain in the Cascades will still capture cold storms when they come, but count on a warmer, drier feel compared to <a href=\"https:\/\/snowbrains.com\/noaa-winter-23-24-seasonal-outlook-forecasters-offer-sneak-peek-at-next-winter\/\">recent winters<\/a>. Bachelor and Mt. Hood\u2019s lower elevations are most exposed.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Northern Rockies (Montana, Idaho, Wyoming)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><strong>The northern Rockies look challenging through much of the winter.<\/strong> Montana and Idaho sit squarely in the below-normal precipitation zone on multiple maps, while temperatures are solidly above normal. The strongest dry signal appears in the October-November-December and November-December-January periods, with some easing to \u201cequal chances\u201d by the core DJF window, but that\u2019s not a recovery, just less certainty about dryness. Resorts dependent on early-season snowpack may face a slow start. Jackson Hole (Wyoming) sits on the southern edge of the dry zone and fares somewhat better in terms of precipitation, though temperatures are still warm.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Colorado, Utah, and the Southwest: A Mixed Bag<\/strong><\/h3>\n<h3><strong>Central and Southern Rockies (Colorado, Utah)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><strong>The good news for Colorado and Utah:<\/strong> the aggressive dry signal doesn\u2019t reach them. The DJF precipitation map shows \u201cequal chances\u201d for most of the Rockies south of the dry Montana\/Idaho core. That means no favored dry outcome; storms can still deliver. The bad news is temperatures are still forecast to be above normal (40-50% probability), which means warmer rain-to-snow lines, more midwinter melt events, and pressure on lower-elevation terrain. Colorado\u2019s high-elevation resorts (Loveland Pass, A-Basin, Loveland, Breckenridge, Vail) are best positioned to weather warm anomalies. Utah\u2019s Wasatch, which already runs cold, could still produce quality snow on the days it storms. It won\u2019t be a repeat of the <a href=\"https:\/\/snowbrains.com\/snowbrains-winter-2025-26-forecast-month-by-month-and-region-by-region-where-its-going-to-snow-this-winter\/\">historic 2022-23 season<\/a>, but Colorado and Utah are far from a write-off.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_406505\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-406505\" style=\"width: 1280px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-406505 lazyload\" src=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAoAAAAHvAQMAAAD+SfxyAAAABlBMVEUAAAD\/\/\/+l2Z\/dAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAAAlwSFlzAAAOxAAADsQBlSsOGwAAAD5JREFUeNrtwTEBAAAAwqD1T20LL6AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAICTAZyfAAFvrlOUAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\" alt=\"NOAA seasonal temperature outlook for October November December 2026 showing above-normal warmth across the West and Pacific Northwest\" width=\"640\" height=\"495\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/off05_temp-Large.jpeg?resize=640%2C495&amp;ssl=1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/off05_temp-Large.jpeg?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/off05_temp-Large.jpeg?resize=300%2C232&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/off05_temp-Large.jpeg?resize=1200%2C927&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/off05_temp-Large.jpeg?resize=768%2C593&amp;ssl=1 768w\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-eio-rwidth=\"640\" data-eio-rheight=\"495\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-406505\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/off05_temp-Large.jpeg?resize=640%2C495&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"NOAA seasonal temperature outlook for October November December 2026 showing above-normal warmth across the West and Pacific Northwest\" width=\"640\" height=\"495\" data-eio=\"l\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-406505\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">OND Temperature Outlook. | Image: NOAA<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div class=\"code-block code-block-2\" style=\"margin: 8px auto;text-align: center;clear: both\">\n<!-- GAM 71161633\/SNWBR_snowbrains\/article_hrec_2 --><\/p>\n<div data-fuse=\"article_hrec_2\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h3><strong>Southwest (New Mexico, Arizona)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><strong>The Southwest sits in a wetter-than-normal zone on nearly every map, which is the El Ni\u00f1o precipitation signal working in its favor.<\/strong> However, temperatures remain above normal, which is a significant concern for lower-elevation desert mountains. Taos and Ski Santa Fe could see good storm totals but may struggle with snowpack quality at mid-mountain elevations. Snowbowl at 11,500 feet is better insulated. Worth watching as the season approaches.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>El Ni\u00f1o 2026-27 Ski Forecast for the East: Warm, Variable, Elevation-Dependent<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><strong>The Northeast (Vermont, New Hampshire, New York) sees above-normal temperatures throughout the winter \u2014 the DJF map shows a 40-50% probability of warmth across New England.<\/strong> Precipitation is in \u201cequal chances\u201d territory, so storms aren\u2019t suppressed, but warm-air intrusions and rain-on-snow events pose an elevated risk. The Great Lakes region also shows a lean toward below-normal precipitation, which could reduce lake-effect snow totals for resorts in western New York and the eastern Great Lakes corridor. Vermont and New Hampshire\u2019s higher terrain (Mansfield, Washington) will hold what snow falls better than lower-elevation terrain. It sets up as a volatile, management-intensive season for eastern resorts, not unlike recent El Ni\u00f1o winters.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>How Much Should You Trust an El Ni\u00f1o 2026-27 Ski Forecast This Early?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><strong>El Ni\u00f1o winters are not automatically bad winters \u2014 past strong events have produced excellent snowfall in Colorado, Utah, and even California.<\/strong> But the 2026-27 setup favors a north-south split that disadvantages the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest while leaving the central and southern Rockies in play. Temperatures above normal are the consistent message everywhere.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The important caveat:<\/strong> this is a May forecast for a December-March winter. Even with a strong El Ni\u00f1o, individual storm tracks matter enormously, and seasonal outlooks describe probabilities, not certainties. We\u2019ll be watching the evolving El Ni\u00f1o signal through summer and will update the forecast as we get closer to opening day.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_406506\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-406506\" style=\"width: 1280px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-406506 lazyload\" src=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAoAAAAHvAQMAAAD+SfxyAAAABlBMVEUAAAD\/\/\/+l2Z\/dAAAAAXRSTlMAQObYZgAAAAlwSFlzAAAOxAAADsQBlSsOGwAAAD5JREFUeNrtwTEBAAAAwqD1T20LL6AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAICTAZyfAAFvrlOUAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\" alt=\"NOAA seasonal precipitation outlook for October November December 2026 showing below-normal precip in the Pacific Northwest and above-normal across the Southwest\" width=\"640\" height=\"495\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/off05_prcp-Large.jpeg?resize=640%2C495&amp;ssl=1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/off05_prcp-Large.jpeg?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/off05_prcp-Large.jpeg?resize=300%2C232&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/off05_prcp-Large.jpeg?resize=1200%2C927&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/off05_prcp-Large.jpeg?resize=768%2C593&amp;ssl=1 768w\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-eio-rwidth=\"640\" data-eio-rheight=\"495\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-406506\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/snowbrains.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/off05_prcp-Large.jpeg?resize=640%2C495&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"NOAA seasonal precipitation outlook for October November December 2026 showing below-normal precip in the Pacific Northwest and above-normal across the Southwest\" width=\"640\" height=\"495\" data-eio=\"l\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-406506\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">OND Precipitation Outlook. | Image: NOAA<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3><strong>Full <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/long_range\/fxus05.html\">NOAA Discussion<\/a><\/strong><\/h3>\n<pre>SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS \n \nEl Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions continued through \nmid-May, but positive sea surface temperature (SST) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#anomalies\">anomalies<\/a> have increased \nacross the central and eastern Pacific Ocean during the spring. El Nino is \nlikely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-June-July) and continue through the \nNorthern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in December 2026-February 2027). \n \nThe June-July-August (JJA) Temperature Outlook favors above-normal temperatures \nthroughout the West, much of the Great Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and \nEast. The highest forecast confidence for above-normal temperatures is across \nthe Pacific Northwest. Above-normal temperatures are also favored for a \nmajority of Alaska. \n \nThe JJA Precipitation Outlook depicts elevated above-normal precipitation \nprobabilities for parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, Central to Southern \nRockies, and the Northeast. The outlook leans towards below-normal \nprecipitation along the western Gulf Coast, along with portions of the Northern \nGreat Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Above-normal precipitation is \nfavored for western and northern Alaska. \n \nAreas depicted in white and labeled \"Equal-Chances\" or \"EC\" are regions where \nclimate <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#signal\">signals<\/a>  are weak, and so there are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#equal%20chances\">equal chances<\/a> for either above-, \nnear- or below-normal seasonal mean temperatures or total precipitation amounts. \n \nBASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS \nNote: For Graphical Displays of the Forecast Tools Discussed Below See: \nhttp:\/\/www.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#cpc\">cpc<\/a>.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/tools\/briefing \n \nCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS \n \nWeekly observed SST departures in the Nino 3.4 region are +0.5 degrees C and \nhave increased steadily since March. From April 19 to May 16, equatorial SSTs \nwere above-average (at or more than 0.5 degrees C) across the central and \neastern Pacific Ocean. By mid-May, equatorial subsurface temperature <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#anomalies\">anomalies<\/a> \nwere more than +2 degrees C between 100 and 150 meters at depth, near the Date \nLine. During late April through mid-May, negative outgoing longwave radiation \n(OLR) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#anomalies\">anomalies<\/a> (enhanced <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#convection\">convection<\/a> and precipitation) was observed north of \nthe equator near the Date Line. Above-average OLR (suppressed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#convection\">convection<\/a> and \nprecipitation) was observed over Indonesia, the Philippines, and south of the \nequator near the Date Line. Low-level (850-hPa) winds were close to average \nacross most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level (200-hPa) wind \n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#anomalies\">anomalies<\/a> were westerly over the central and east-central Pacific. \n \nThe Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) briefly stalled over the Indian Ocean \nduring early May and became less coherent. However, the MJO recently began to \nresume its eastward propagation to the Maritime Continent. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#Dynamical%20model\">Dynamical model<\/a> \nforecasts are in good agreement that a robust MJO propagates east over the West \nPacific and eventually shifts to the Western Hemisphere by early June. \n \nPROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS \n \nThe CPC SST consolidation forecast for Nino 3.4 depicts SST <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#anomalies\">anomalies<\/a> \nincreasing through the summer and reaching +1.5 degrees C (strong El Nino \nthreshold) by Sep-Oct-Nov. A majority of the North American Multi-Model \nEnsemble Members (NMME) along with the ECMWF model also indicate a strong El \nNino by the fall. Later in the 2026-27 winter, the CPC SST consolidation \nforecast depicts <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#anomalies\">anomalies<\/a> decreasing but remaining above +0.5 degrees C \nthrough Feb-Mar-Apr 2027. As of May 14, the CPC ENSO outlook indicates that El \nNino is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-Jun-Jul) and continue through \nDec 2026-Feb 2027 (96% chance). By the late fall and early winter \n(October-November-December), there is near a 2 in 3 chance of a strong El Nino. \n \nPROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS \n \nThe Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks for JJA 2026 were based on dynamical \nmodels such as the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the \nCopernicus (C3S) multi-model ensemble system. A Calibration, Bridging, and \nMerging (CBaM) version of the NMME was also used in the outlooks. Soil moisture \ninfluence along with its constructed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#analog\">analog<\/a> were factors in the JJA temperature \nand precipitation outlooks An objective, historical skill-weighted \nconsolidation that includes the NMME along with statistical tools such as the \nSST-based Constructed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#Analog\">Analog<\/a> and the ENSO-OCN was used through Oct-Nov-Dec. \nBeyond that time, the consolidation only includes statistical tools. Long-term \nclimate <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#trend\">trends<\/a>  were considered for all leads, but were relied upon most during \nthe 2027 spring and summer. \n \nPROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - JJA 2026 TO JJA 2027 \n \nTEMPERATURE \n \nThe highest forecast confidence for above-normal temperatures (probabilities \nmore than 60%) during Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA) is across the Pacific Northwest where \nthere is excellent agreement among <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#dynamical%20model\">dynamical models<\/a>  and consistent with favored \nbelow-normal precipitation. In addition, El Nino summers tend to be \nwarmer-than-normal. Based on a consensus of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#dynamical%20model\">dynamical models<\/a>  and statistical \ntools, enhanced above-normal temperature probabilities (greater than 40%) \ncover the remainder of the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS), much of the Central \nto Southern Great Plains, and extend from the Southeast north to southern New \nEngland. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#Equal%20chances\">Equal chances<\/a> (EC) of below, near, or above-normal temperatures are \nforecast for the Midwest where a more variable temperature pattern is expected \nthis summer and the warmer <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#dynamical%20model\">dynamical model<\/a> output is offset by the colder El \nNino composites. Although the CBaM version of the NMME depicts elevated \nbelow-normal temperature probabilities for parts of the Midwest, a lean towards \nbelow-normal temperatures was not introduced until the Jul-Aug-Sep (JAS) \noutlook as there are signs that June could be warmer-than-normal. Dynamical \nmodel output and El Nino composites favor above-normal temperatures throughout \nAlaska, except for the North Slope. Although the June outlook leans on the \ncolder side for coastal southwestern Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula, elevated \nabove-normal temperature probabilities (33-40%) are forecast across these areas \nduring the three-month period of JJA. \n \nLater in the summer and into the early fall, including Jul-Aug-Sep and \nAug-Sep-Oct, the outlook slightly favors below-normal temperatures for parts of \nthe Midwest based on El Nino influences historically. Given the increasing \nchance of a strong El Nino by next winter, above-normal temperature \nprobabilities were increased to more than 50% across the northern tier of the \nCONUS, from the Pacific Northwest east to the Northern Great Plains, during \nDec-Jan-Feb 2026-27. EC was maintained for the southern tier of the CONUS \nthrough next winter which is consistent with the SST-Constructed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#Analog\">Analog<\/a> tool. \nBy the late spring and following summer of 2027, decadal <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#trend\">trends<\/a>  were the major \nfactor in those temperature outlooks. \n \nPRECIPITATION \n \nSimilar to previous forecast reasoning with low soil moisture favoring enhanced \nheating and a robust start to the Monsoon along with good <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#dynamical%20model\">dynamical model<\/a> \nagreement and consistency, the JJA outlook favors above-normal precipitation \nfor much of the Southwest. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#Dynamical%20model\">Dynamical model<\/a> output has trended wetter farther to \nthe north into the Central Rockies, and this is consistent with El Nino summers \nhistorically. Therefore, the JJA outlook depicts elevated above-normal \nprecipitation probabilities as far north as Wyoming with the largest \nprobabilities (&gt; 40%) centered over the Four Corners. Surrounding this enhanced \nMonsoon signal, below-normal precipitation is favored for parts of the Pacific \nNorthwest, Northern to Central Great Plains, and Upper Mississippi Valley \nduring JJA. This favored dryness has support from a number of tools including \nthe NMME, SST-Constructed Analog, and decadal <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#trend\">trends<\/a> . In addition, soil \nmoisture is low for Nebraska, southern South Dakota, and parts of Minnesota \nwhere there is a significant positive correlation between low May soil moisture \nand below-normal precipitation during JJA. Forecast confidence for a particular \ncategory of precipitation (below, near, or above) is lower for the remainder of \nthe Great Plains and Midwest as the NMME trended notably wetter compared to one \nmonth ago. The JJA outlook leans slightly towards below-normal precipitation \nalong the western Gulf Coast based on composites and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#dynamical%20model\">dynamical model<\/a> output. \nFor the eastern CONUS, many of the tools lean on the wetter side but vary \nregionally. Therefore, the JJA precipitation outlook relied upon the \nconsolidation with a slight lean (33-40% chance) towards above-normal \nprecipitation across the Northeast. Based on the NMME, elevated above-normal \nprecipitation probabilities are forecast across western and northern Mainland \nAlaska. El Nino summers tend to be drier for southern Alaska, but the JJA \noutlook calls for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#equal%20chances\">equal chances<\/a> of below, near, or above-normal precipitation \nsince last month's outlook favored above-normal precipitation. \n \nStarting in Jul-Aug-Sep (JAS) and continuing through Sep-Oct-Nov, elevated \nabove-normal precipitation probabilities are forecast for southern California \ndue to the likelihood of an active East Pacific hurricane season and its \nassociated influence on precipitation. A dry <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#signal\">signal<\/a> in El Nino composites peaks \nin JAS throughout the south-central CONUS and the precipitation outlook \nfollowed this historical guidance. Given the increasing chance of a strong El \nNino by the late fall, the Mid-Atlantic is favored to have above-normal \nprecipitation beginning in Oct-Nov-Dec. Compared to last month, above-normal \nprecipitation probabilities were increased across the southern tier of the \nCONUS during the late fall and 2026-27 winter, now exceeding 60% for parts of \nthe Southeast. El Nino composites also supported a couple of areas with favored \nbelow-normal precipitation across parts of the Midwest and Northern Rockies. EC \nis forecast for nearly all of the West Coast during the winter 2026-27 due to \nthe weak <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#signal\">signal<\/a> from the ENSO-OCN tool. By the summer of 2027, the \nprecipitation outlook is based on decadal <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/predictions\/90day\/seasglossary.html#trend\">trends<\/a> .<\/pre>\n<p><!-- CONTENT END 1 -->\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>DJF Temperature Outlook. | Image: NOAA Yes, really. The 2025-26 ski season isn\u2019t even fully in the books yet, snowflakes are still falling at a handful of holdout resorts, and here we are already talking about next winter. But that\u2019s just who we are. NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center dropped its latest long-lead seasonal outlook on [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[226,267],"class_list":["post-1949318","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-crawlmanager","tag-snowbrains-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1949318","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1949318"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1949318\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1949318"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1949318"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1949318"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}