{"id":1942510,"date":"2026-05-19T05:01:40","date_gmt":"2026-05-19T02:01:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1942510"},"modified":"2026-05-19T05:01:40","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T02:01:40","slug":"worst-case-global-warming-projection-cut-by-1c-as-cheap-solar-and-wind-slash-emissions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1942510","title":{"rendered":"Worst-case global warming projection cut by 1\u00b0C as cheap solar and wind slash emissions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/76\/25\/56\/1200x675_cmsv2_f3031f52-4c33-54b4-a3a8-fa5a32bf5db9-9762556.jpg&#8221;]<\/p>\n<article id=\"abe-2894571-pos1-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1\" data-nid=\"2894571\" data-cid=\"9762469\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2894571-label-pos1-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/76\/24\/69\/189x106_cmsv2_77f065ad-2600-5f2b-a1b2-1d44c26320b3-9762469.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"People going through grief are increasingly turning to healing retreats\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Travel News<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Grief travel is booming as mourners turn to healing retreats\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2894742-pos2-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1\" data-nid=\"2894742\" data-cid=\"9763426\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2894742-label-pos2-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" 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src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/75\/98\/04\/189x106_cmsv2_3f46c42b-8a70-569d-b798-a997d8965a19-9759804.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Euronews\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Europe Today<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \"><span class=\"c-article-title__prefix--red\">Live.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>    Energy shock, Russian oil sanctions dominate crunch G7 finance talks\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2893881-pos4-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1\" data-nid=\"2893881\" data-cid=\"9759363\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2893881-label-pos4-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/49\/08\/63\/189x106_cmsv2_e82b99ca-f3f8-5eee-b766-5564c3a96b6b-9490863.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"The OpenAI logo is seen on a mobile phone in front of a computer screen which displays output from ChatGPT, March 21, 2023, in Boston. \" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    EU.XL<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    &#8220;Not without my consent&#8221;: how Europe plans to ban non-consensual &#8220;nudifier apps&#8221;\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2894571-pos1-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2\" data-nid=\"2894571\" data-cid=\"9762469\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2894571-label-pos1-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/76\/24\/69\/189x106_cmsv2_77f065ad-2600-5f2b-a1b2-1d44c26320b3-9762469.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"People going through grief are increasingly turning to healing retreats\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Travel News<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Grief travel is booming as mourners turn to healing retreats\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2894742-pos2-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2\" data-nid=\"2894742\" data-cid=\"9763426\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2894742-label-pos2-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/76\/34\/26\/189x106_cmsv2_a82a7e01-bc2d-5831-b099-1d95ea39bf0b-9763426.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"People embrace near the scene of a shooting outside the Islamic Center of San Diego Monday, May 18, 2026, in San Diego\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    USA<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Three people killed as two teenagers open fire at a San Diego mosque\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2893956-pos3-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--has-video\" data-nid=\"2893956\" data-cid=\"9759804\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2893956-label-pos3-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/75\/98\/04\/189x106_cmsv2_3f46c42b-8a70-569d-b798-a997d8965a19-9759804.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Euronews\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Europe Today<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \"><span class=\"c-article-title__prefix--red\">Live.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>    Energy shock, Russian oil sanctions dominate crunch G7 finance talks\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2893881-pos4-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2\" data-nid=\"2893881\" data-cid=\"9759363\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2893881-label-pos4-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/49\/08\/63\/189x106_cmsv2_e82b99ca-f3f8-5eee-b766-5564c3a96b6b-9490863.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"The OpenAI logo is seen on a mobile phone in front of a computer screen which displays output from ChatGPT, March 21, 2023, in Boston. \" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    EU.XL<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    &#8220;Not without my consent&#8221;: how Europe plans to ban non-consensual &#8220;nudifier apps&#8221;\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"helper-site-row o-article-newsy\">\n<div class=\"helper-site-container o-article-newsy__container\">\n<div class=\"o-article-newsy__main\">\n<header class=\"h-grid o-article-newsy__main__header\">\n<nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumbs\" class=\"c-article-breadcrumbs\">\n<div id=\"adb-article-breadcrumb\" class=\"c-article-breadcrumbs__list\">\n<p>                          Earth<\/p>\n<p>                          Climate<\/p><\/div>\n<\/nav>\n<h1 class=\"c-article-redesign-title\">\n                            Worst-case global warming projection cut by 1\u00b0C as cheap solar and wind slash emissions<\/h1>\n<div class=\"c-article-image-video u-position-relative \">\n<div class=\"js-superdiv u-aspect-ratio-16x9 u-position-relative \" data-sponsored=\"Partner content\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"js-poster-img c-article-media__img\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/76\/25\/56\/1536x864_cmsv2_f3031f52-4c33-54b4-a3a8-fa5a32bf5db9-9762556.jpg\" width=\"1536\" height=\"864\" loading=\"eager\" alt=\"FILE - A woman uses a fan to shade her face from the sun in London during the heatwave on 18 July 2022. \"><\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-caption u-position-absolute\"><i id=\"article-caption-content\" class=\"c-article-caption__content\"><span class=\"c-article-caption__text\"><br \/>\n              FILE &#8211; A woman uses a fan to shade her face from the sun in London during the heatwave on 18 July 2022.<br \/>\n                    <span class=\"u-color-white\">&#8211;\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"c-article-caption__copyright\">Copyright\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"c-article-caption__credit\">Copyright  AP Photo\/Matt Dunham<\/span><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-image-copyright c-article-image-copyright--novideo\">\n      Copyright\u00a0Copyright  AP Photo\/Matt Dunham\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"h-grid o-article-newsy__main__body u-article-content\">\n<div class=\"o-article-newsy__contributors-publication-date\">\n<div class=\"c-article-contributors\">\n  By&amp;nbspAngela Symons\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-publication-date\" data-timestamp=\"1779166900\">\n         Published on<br \/>\n            <time datetime=\"2026-05-19 07:01:40 +02:00\">19\/05\/2026 &#8211; 7:01 GMT+2<\/time><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-partage-commentaire u-align-items-center u-display-flex\"><span class=\"c-article-partage-commentaire__links u-align-items-center u-display-flex u-justify-content-center js-c-article-partage-commentaire-share\"><span>Share<\/span><\/span><span>Comments<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-partage-commentaire-popup-overlay js-c-article-partage-commentaire-popup-overlay u-display-none\">\n<div id=\"js-c-article-partage-commentaire-popup\" class=\"c-article-partage-commentaire-popup 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alt=\"vk\" loading=\"lazy\"><span>VK<\/span><\/span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-vk.svg\" width=\"48\" height=\"48\" alt=\"vk\" class=\"u-show-for-desktop\" loading=\"lazy\"><span class=\"u-display-flex u-gap-1 u-show-for-mobile-only\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-bluesky.svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" alt=\"bluesky\" loading=\"lazy\"><span>Bluesky<\/span><\/span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-bluesky.svg\" width=\"48\" height=\"48\" alt=\"bluesky\" class=\"u-show-for-desktop\" loading=\"lazy\"><span class=\"u-display-flex u-gap-1 u-show-for-mobile-only\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-threads.svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" alt=\"threads\" loading=\"lazy\"><span>Threads<\/span><\/span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-threads.svg\" width=\"48\" height=\"48\" alt=\"threads\" class=\"u-show-for-desktop\" loading=\"lazy\"><span class=\"u-display-flex u-gap-1 u-show-for-mobile-only\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-whatsapp.svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" alt=\"whatsapp\" loading=\"lazy\"><span>Whatsapp<\/span><\/span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-whatsapp.svg\" width=\"48\" height=\"48\" alt=\"whatsapp\" class=\"u-show-for-desktop\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"c-article-summary\">\n        Cheap renewables are lowering predicted 2100 temperatures \u2013 but warming could still be catastrophic.<br \/>\n    <\/h2>\n<div class=\"c-article-content c-article-content--earth js-article-content\">\n<p>Worst-case projections for temperature rise by the end of the century have been revised as mitigation measures start to bear fruit.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"c-ad u-show-for-mobile-only\">\n<div class=\"c-ad__placeholder\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"c-ad__placeholder__logo\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/logos\/logo-euronews-stacked-outlined-72x72-grey-9.svg\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" alt loading=\"lazy\"><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-ad u-show-for-desktop\">\n<div class=\"c-ad__placeholder\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"c-ad__placeholder__logo\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/logos\/logo-euronews-stacked-outlined-72x72-grey-9.svg\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" alt loading=\"lazy\"><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The plummeting cost of solar and wind energy has put a <strong>high-fossil-fuel future<\/strong> increasingly out of reach and climate policies are helping to drive down emissions, which are now tracking below former worst-case assumptions.<\/p>\n<p>Some of the world\u2019s top climate scientists now believe a previously projected 4.5\u00b0C rise by 2100 is no longer plausible, and have reduced the upper limit of their worst-case scenario for <strong>global warming<\/strong> to 3.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels.<\/p>\n<p>The revised models come from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP), which has created climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes. Led by an international committee of leading climate scientists, its <strong>findings<\/strong> will feed into the UN\u2019s future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments.<\/p>\n<p>Still, the worst-case projections are a far cry from the maximum 2\u00b0C limit agreed on by countries in the 2015 <strong>Paris Agreement<\/strong> and would still bring disastrous consequences for the planet.<\/p>\n<h2>How were the most extreme future temperatures modelled?<\/h2>\n<p>Scientists modelled various scenarios to project best and worst case global warming by the year 2100.<\/p>\n<p>They took into account the world\u2019s future population, energy use, <strong>energy sources<\/strong>, investment in climate change adaptation and mitigation, climate policies, and collaboration between nations.<\/p>\n<p>The worst-case scenarios envision a world where climate policies and mitigation efforts are weakened or <strong>reversed<\/strong>, and fossil fuel use rises along with resource- and energy-intensive technologies and lifestyles.<\/p>\n<p>Intensive fossil fuel use would outstrip current reserves, meaning undiscovered deposits would need to be tapped using future technologies that make their extraction plausible.<\/p>\n<p>The models also assume an end to the decade-long drop in <strong>renewable energy costs<\/strong>, possibly because the minerals needed for solar panels, wind turbines and EV batteries become scarce or get caught up in trade disputes. <\/p>\n<div class=\"c-widget-related\" data-stories-id data-event=\"widget_related\">\n<div class=\"c-widget-related__title\"><b class=\"c-widget-related__title__text\" lang=\"en\">Related<\/b><\/div>\n<ul class=\"c-widget-related__list\">\n<li class=\"c-widget-related__item\">Fossil fuel giants are \u2018cashing in\u2019 on the Iran war. Is it time for a tax on windfall profits?<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-widget-related__item\">EU households could save \u2018more than \u20ac2,200\u2019 every year by switching to heat pumps and EVs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p>A lack of cooperation in addressing global environmental concerns, including inadequate developments in low-emission technology, could make matters worse.<\/p>\n<p>High economic growth and regional competition, resurgent nationalism, concerns about competitiveness and security, and regional conflicts could push countries to increasingly prioritise domestic or regional issues over climate change mitigation. This could lead to a collapse of international and <strong>national climate policies<\/strong>, a paper on the projections warns.<\/p>\n<p>Worse case models project the resulting spike in emissions causing irreversible changes in the slow components of the Earth system, such as the deep ocean or ice sheets and glaciers, which regulate the global climate.<\/p>\n<p>Although this scenario is unlikely, it would be catastrophic in its impacts.<\/p>\n<p>Further Earth System Model simulations, which will also include the effects of carbon cycle feedbacks, will be carried out later this year and their outcomes could alter the projections. <\/p>\n<h2>What are the alternative scenarios?<\/h2>\n<p>The report also models progressively milder scenarios, ranging from high emissions up until mid-century followed by rapid reductions, to strengthened climate policies that see the world reach net-zero as quickly as possible, limiting what the paper calls the now \u201cunavoidable\u201d overshoot of the Paris Agreement\u2019s preferred 1.5\u00b0C. The models run all the way through to 2500.<\/p>\n<p>If current climate change policies continue unchanged, preliminary estimates suggest a temperature rise of around 2.5\u00b0C. If mitigation measures are delayed but the world manages to achieve <strong>net-zero<\/strong> by the end of the century, models show that temperature rise could reach 2\u00b0C.<\/p>\n<p>Even low emissions scenarios could lock in catastrophic changes to <strong>sea level<\/strong> and <strong>ice sheets<\/strong> that are irreversible on human timescales. Temporary overshoot of 1.5\u00b0C, even if reversed, could also cause lasting damage to vital ecosystems, such as coral reefs and rainforests.<\/p>\n<p>Developed in the mid-2010s, the previous scenarios used real-world emissions data up to 2015. The new models extend that to 2023, and also better capture how the <strong>Earth\u2019s systems<\/strong> respond to warming \u2013 for example, how much CO2 oceans and forests absorb as temperatures rise.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>                                  Go to accessibility shortcuts<\/p>\n<div class=\"c-article-partage-commentaire u-align-items-center u-display-flex\"><span class=\"c-article-partage-commentaire__links u-align-items-center u-display-flex u-justify-content-center js-c-article-partage-commentaire-share\"><span>Share<\/span><\/span><span>Comments<\/span><\/div>\n<div id=\"adb-article-you-might-also-like\" class=\"perf-cv-auto c-article-you-might-also-like\">\n<h2 class=\"c-article-you-might-also-like__title\">\n        Read more<br \/>\n      <\/h2>\n<div class=\"c-article-you-might-also-like__container\">\n<article id=\"abe-2893999-pos0-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1\" data-nid=\"2893999\" data-cid=\"9760136\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2893999-label-pos0-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/76\/01\/36\/480x270_cmsv2_275423b8-10af-5a61-9d71-1272b613aad5-9760136.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"A team of solar installers set up a new rooftop solar system at a home in Manila, Philippines, on May 1, 2026. \" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Climate<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Why experts predict a looming surge in solar panel prices<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2893644-pos1-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1\" data-nid=\"2893644\" data-cid=\"9758326\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2893644-label-pos1-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/75\/83\/26\/480x270_cmsv2_bf057e60-5c71-50d0-b284-94707da88812-9758326.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"View over Stockholm, Sweden.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Climate<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    This Nordic city has been crowned EU\u2019s most climate-resilient capital<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2893415-pos2-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1\" data-nid=\"2893415\" data-cid=\"9757018\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2893415-label-pos2-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/75\/70\/18\/480x270_cmsv2_90791b6f-2ec2-59ed-a770-c012958cd3e1-9757018.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"A general view of Kansas City Stadium, Monday, May 11, 2026, ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup football matches in Kansas City, Mo. \" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Climate<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    \u2018Cancellation-level heat\u2019 could hit World Cup, climate scientists warn<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"perf-cv-auto\">\n<ul id=\"adb-article-tags\" class=\"c-tags-list\">\n<li class=\"c-tags-list__item\">\n<section class=\"tc-cta\" data-twig-component=\"Cta-default\">\n  IPCC<br \/>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-tags-list__item\">\n<section class=\"tc-cta\" data-twig-component=\"Cta-default\">\n  temperature<br \/>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-tags-list__item\">\n<section class=\"tc-cta\" data-twig-component=\"Cta-default\">\n  Paris agreement on climate<br \/>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-tags-list__item\">\n<section class=\"tc-cta\" data-twig-component=\"Cta-default\">\n  renewable energy<br \/>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-tags-list__item\">\n<section class=\"tc-cta\" data-twig-component=\"Cta-default\">\n  Global warming and climate change<br \/>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-tags-list__item\">\n<section class=\"tc-cta\" data-twig-component=\"Cta-default\">\n  greenhouse gas emissions<br \/>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"o-article-newsy__aside\">\n<div class=\"c-ad-wrapper o-article-newsy__aside__content-1\" data-ad-name=\"adzone-halfpage\">\n<div class=\"c-ad c-ad-halfpage u-show-for-desktop\">\n<div class=\"c-ad__placeholder\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"c-ad__placeholder__logo\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/logos\/logo-euronews-stacked-outlined-72x72-grey-9.svg\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" alt><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-ad u-show-for-mobile-only\">\n<div class=\"c-ad__placeholder\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"c-ad__placeholder__logo\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/logos\/logo-euronews-stacked-outlined-72x72-grey-9.svg\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" alt><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"adb-article-top-stories\" class=\"perf-cv-auto c-top-stories\">\n<h2 class=\"c-top-stories__title\">Top stories<\/h2>\n<div class=\"c-top-stories__item\">\n<article id=\"abe-2894624-pos2-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2894624\" data-cid=\"9762704\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2894624-label-pos2-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/76\/27\/04\/320x180_cmsv2_e8a4ddb2-950d-53ec-8a1d-37c0509c5352-9762704.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"In this April 18, 2011 photo, killer whale Wikie, jumps with its baby, a female born one month ago at the Marineland aquatic park in Antibes, southeastern France.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    France\u2019s last captive orca whales to be moved to Spanish zoo<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-top-stories__item\">\n<article id=\"abe-2893718-pos3-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2893718\" data-cid=\"9758680\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2893718-label-pos3-top-stories\" 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alt><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2893999-pos0-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1\" data-nid=\"2893999\" data-cid=\"9760136\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2893999-label-pos0-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/76\/01\/36\/480x270_cmsv2_275423b8-10af-5a61-9d71-1272b613aad5-9760136.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"A team of solar installers set up a new rooftop solar system at a home in Manila, Philippines, on May 1, 2026. \" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Climate<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Why experts predict a looming surge in solar panel prices<br \/>\n  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m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1\" data-nid=\"2893415\" data-cid=\"9757018\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2893415-label-pos2-c-article-you-might-also-like__item\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/75\/70\/18\/480x270_cmsv2_90791b6f-2ec2-59ed-a770-c012958cd3e1-9757018.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"A general view of Kansas City Stadium, Monday, May 11, 2026, ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup football matches in Kansas City, Mo. \" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Climate<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    \u2018Cancellation-level heat\u2019 could hit World Cup, climate scientists warn<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2894624-pos2-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--no-label\" 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src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/76\/01\/36\/320x180_cmsv2_275423b8-10af-5a61-9d71-1272b613aad5-9760136.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"A team of solar installers set up a new rooftop solar system at a home in Manila, Philippines, on May 1, 2026. \" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Why experts predict a looming surge in solar panel prices<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2889900-pos5-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2889900\" data-cid=\"9740554\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2889900-label-pos5-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/74\/05\/54\/320x180_cmsv2_7d0c3990-0c2f-527c-96b3-a3b8bdb7cb8d-9740554.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Archive: Wind turbines near the Modular Offshore Grid in the North Sea off the Belgian coast, September 9, 2019\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Who protects Europe&#8217;s offshore wind farms from sabotage and drones?<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2893412-pos6-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2893412\" data-cid=\"9757097\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2893412-label-pos6-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/75\/70\/02\/320x180_cmsv2_b0090db4-df1f-5cb0-92e5-974ded8bd273-9757002.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Stock image- Photovoltaic panels\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Greece has abundant cheap green energy. Why are bills still high?<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2893999-pos1-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--has-related the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2893999\" data-cid=\"9760136\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Why experts predict a looming surge in solar panel prices<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2880680-pos2-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2880680\" data-cid=\"9695396\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    How Costa Rica is taking its sustainable crops global with Amazon<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__quote\">Partner content presented by <strong>PROCOMER<\/strong><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2893412-pos3-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--has-related the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2893412\" data-cid=\"9757097\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Greece has abundant cheap green energy. Why are bills still high?<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2892220-pos4-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--has-video the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2892220\" data-cid=\"9751657\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    The Caspian Sea is shrinking, and ecosystems are paying the price<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2893718-pos5-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--has-related the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2893718\" data-cid=\"9758680\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Heat pumps and EVs can save EU households over \u20ac2,200 a year &#8211; report<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<div class=\"articleBody\" data-key=\"articleBody\">Worst-case projections for temperature rise by the end of the century have been revised as mitigation measures start to bear fruit.The plummeting cost of solar and wind energy has put a high-fossil-fuel future increasingly out of reach and climate policies are helping to drive down emissions, which are now tracking below former worst-case assumptions.Some of the world\u2019s top climate scientists now believe a previously projected 4.5\u00b0C rise by 2100 is no longer plausible, and have reduced the upper limit of their worst-case scenario for global warming to 3.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels.The revised models come from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP), which has created climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes. Led by an international committee of leading climate scientists, its findings will feed into the UN\u2019s future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments.Still, the worst-case projections are a far cry from the maximum 2\u00b0C limit agreed on by countries in the 2015 Paris Agreement and would still bring disastrous consequences for the planet.How were the most extreme future temperatures modelled?Scientists modelled various scenarios to project best and worst case global warming by the year 2100.They took into account the world\u2019s future population, energy use, energy sources, investment in climate change adaptation and mitigation, climate policies, and collaboration between nations.The worst-case scenarios envision a world where climate policies and mitigation efforts are weakened or reversed, and fossil fuel use rises along with resource- and energy-intensive technologies and lifestyles.Intensive fossil fuel use would outstrip current reserves, meaning undiscovered deposits would need to be tapped using future technologies that make their extraction plausible.The models also assume an end to the decade-long drop in renewable energy costs, possibly because the minerals needed for solar panels, wind turbines and EV batteries become scarce or get caught up in trade disputes.\u00a0A lack of cooperation in addressing global environmental concerns, including inadequate developments in low-emission technology, could make matters worse.High economic growth and regional competition, resurgent nationalism, concerns about competitiveness and security, and regional conflicts could push countries to increasingly prioritise domestic or regional issues over climate change mitigation. This could lead to a collapse of international and national climate policies, a paper on the projections warns.Worse case models project the resulting spike in emissions causing irreversible changes in the slow components of the Earth system, such as the deep ocean or ice sheets and glaciers, which regulate the global climate.Although this scenario is unlikely, it would be catastrophic in its impacts.Further Earth System Model simulations, which will also include the effects of carbon cycle feedbacks, will be carried out later this year and their outcomes could alter the projections.\u00a0What are the alternative scenarios?The report also models progressively milder scenarios, ranging from high emissions up until mid-century followed by rapid reductions, to strengthened climate policies that see the world reach net-zero as quickly as possible, limiting what the paper calls the now \u201cunavoidable\u201d overshoot of the Paris Agreement\u2019s preferred 1.5\u00b0C. The models run all the way through to 2500.If current climate change policies continue unchanged, preliminary estimates suggest a temperature rise of around 2.5\u00b0C. If mitigation measures are delayed but the world manages to achieve net-zero by the end of the century, models show that temperature rise could reach 2\u00b0C.Even low emissions scenarios could lock in catastrophic changes to sea level and ice sheets that are irreversible on human timescales. Temporary overshoot of 1.5\u00b0C, even if reversed, could also cause lasting damage to vital ecosystems, such as coral reefs and rainforests.Developed in the mid-2010s, the previous scenarios used real-world emissions data up to 2015. The new models extend that to 2023, and also better capture how the Earth\u2019s systems respond to warming \u2013 for example, how much CO2 oceans and forests absorb as temperatures rise.<\/div>\n<p>[analyse_source url=&#8221;http:\/\/www.euronews.com\/2026\/05\/19\/worst-case-global-warming-projection-cut-by-1c-as-cheap-solar-and-wind-slash-emissions&#8221;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/76\/25\/56\/1200x675_cmsv2_f3031f52-4c33-54b4-a3a8-fa5a32bf5db9-9762556.jpg&#8221;] Travel News Grief travel is booming as mourners turn to healing retreats USA Three people killed as two teenagers open fire at a San Diego mosque Europe Today Live. Energy shock, Russian oil sanctions dominate crunch G7 finance talks EU.XL &#8220;Not without my consent&#8221;: how Europe plans to ban non-consensual &#8220;nudifier apps&#8221; [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[90],"tags":[226,36],"class_list":["post-1942510","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-international","tag-crawlmanager","tag-euronews-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1942510","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1942510"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1942510\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1942510"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1942510"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1942510"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}