{"id":1940465,"date":"2026-05-11T07:05:08","date_gmt":"2026-05-11T04:05:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1940465"},"modified":"2026-05-11T07:05:08","modified_gmt":"2026-05-11T04:05:08","slug":"economistul-radu-georgescu-miercuri-13-mai-vom-afla-daca-economia-romaniei-se-prabuseste","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1940465","title":{"rendered":"Economistul Radu Georgescu: Miercuri, 13 mai, vom afla dac\u0103 economia Romaniei se pr\u0103bu\u0219e\u0219te"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/r3media.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/radu-georgescu.pnghttps:\/\/r3media.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/radu-georgescu.png&#8221;]<\/p>\n<article id=\"template-id-109\" class=\"post-109 tdb_templates type-tdb_templates status-publish post\">\n<div id=\"tdi_2\" class=\"tdc-zone\">\n<div class=\"tdc_zone tdi_3  wpb_row td-pb-row\">\n<div id=\"tdi_4\" class=\"tdc-row\">\n<div class=\"vc_row tdi_5  wpb_row td-pb-row\">\n<div class=\"vc_column tdi_7  wpb_column vc_column_container tdc-column td-pb-span8\">\n<div class=\"wpb_wrapper\">\n<div class=\"td_block_wrap tdb_breadcrumbs tdi_8 td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1 tdb-breadcrumbs \" data-td-block-uid=\"tdi_8\">\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><span><a title=\"Vede\u021bi toate articolele \u00een ACTUALITATE\" class=\"tdb-entry-crumb\" href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/category\/actualitate\/\">ACTUALITATE<\/a><\/span><span class=\"tdb-bred-no-url-last\">Economistul Radu Georgescu: Miercuri, 13 mai, vom afla dac\u0103 economia Romaniei se&#8230;<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"td_block_wrap tdb_single_categories tdi_9 td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1 \" data-td-block-uid=\"tdi_9\">\n<div class=\"tdb-category td-fix-index\"><a class=\"tdb-entry-category\" href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/category\/actualitate\/\">ACTUALITATE<\/a><a class=\"tdb-entry-category\" href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/category\/economie\/\">ECONOMIE<\/a><a class=\"tdb-entry-category\" href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/category\/stiri\/\">\u0218TIRI<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"td_block_wrap tdb_title tdi_10 tdb-single-title td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1\" data-td-block-uid=\"tdi_10\">\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<h1 class=\"tdb-title-text\">Economistul Radu Georgescu: Miercuri, 13 mai, vom afla dac\u0103 economia Romaniei se pr\u0103bu\u0219e\u0219te<\/h1>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"vc_row_inner tdi_12  vc_row vc_inner wpb_row td-pb-row\">\n<div class=\"vc_column_inner tdi_14  wpb_column vc_column_container tdc-inner-column td-pb-span12\">\n<div class=\"vc_column-inner\">\n<div class=\"wpb_wrapper\">\n<div class=\"td_block_wrap tdb_single_author tdi_15 td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1 tdb-post-meta\" data-td-block-uid=\"tdi_15\">\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"tdb-author-name-wrap\"><a class=\"tdb-author-name\" href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/author\/oana\/\">Oana Ivan<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"td_block_wrap tdb_single_date tdi_16 td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1 tdb-post-meta\" data-td-block-uid=\"tdi_16\">\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\"><time class=\"entry-date updated td-module-date\" datetime=\"2026-05-11T10:05:08+03:00\">11\/05\/2026<\/time><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"td_block_wrap tdb_single_featured_image tdi_17 tdb-content-horiz-left td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1\" data-td-block-uid=\"tdi_17\">\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<figure><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"696\" height=\"345\" class=\"entry-thumb\" src=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/radu-georgescu-696x345.png\" alt title=\"radu georgescu\"><figcaption class=\"tdb-caption-text\">Surs\u0103 &#8211; Radu Georgescu<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"td_block_wrap tdb_single_content tdi_18 td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1 td-post-content tagdiv-type\" data-td-block-uid=\"tdi_18\">\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"heateor_sss_sharing_container heateor_sss_horizontal_sharing\" data-heateor-sss-href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/economist-radu-georgescu-economia-romania\/\">\n<div class=\"heateor_sss_sharing_title\">D\u0103 mai departe, nu \u021bine doar pentru tine<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>Economistul <a href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/tag\/radu-georgescu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Radu Georgescu<\/a> a spus care vor fi cele dou\u0103 cazuri de evolu\u021bie politic\u0103 \u00een Rom\u00e2nia \u00een func\u021bie de PIB-ul ajustat din trimestrul 1 din anul 2026.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Radu Georgescu:<\/strong><em>Lec\u021bia zilnic\u0103 de economie<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Eu am zero interes pentru politic\u0103.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Nu simpatizez niciun partid.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Nu m\u0103 uit la nicio emisiune politic\u0103.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Dar probabil pot s\u0103 estimez evolu\u021bia politic\u0103 mai bine dec\u00e2t majoritatea anali\u0219tilor politici de la TV \u0219i de pe re\u021belele sociale.<\/em><br \/><em>S\u0103 \u00eencepem.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Miercuri, 13 mai, ora 9, vom afla dac\u0103 economia se pr\u0103bu\u0219e\u0219te.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>De asemenea, vom afla care va fi noul Guvern.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>La acea or\u0103 se va publica PIB-ul Rom\u00e2niei pe trimestrul 1 2026.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>De\u0219i toat\u0103 lumea din Rom\u00e2nia vorbe\u0219te sau a auzit de PIB, nu cred c\u0103 sunt 10 persoane \u00een Rom\u00e2nia care s\u0103 \u00een\u021beleag\u0103 cu adev\u0103rat ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 PIB-ul.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Sunt aproximativ 10 no\u021biuni diferite despre PIB.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u00ce\u021bi explic mai jos:<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>PIB nominal: valoarea generat\u0103 de economie \u00eentr-o anumit\u0103 perioad\u0103 (an, trimestru);<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>PIB real: PIB-ul nominal este ajustat cu infla\u021bia, deoarece o parte a PIB-ului nominal este crescut\u0103 de infla\u021bie;<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>PIB serie brut\u0103: este PIB-ul real, dar publicat pe fiecare trimestru;<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>PIB serie ajustat\u0103: INS face ajust\u0103ri \u00een func\u021bie de sezonalitate: num\u0103r de zile lucr\u0103toare, s\u0103rb\u0103tori etc.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Conven\u021bia economic\u0103 este c\u0103 recesiunea\/cre\u0219terea economic\u0103 se calculeaz\u0103 \u00een func\u021bie de PIB-ul ajustat al trimestrelor consecutive.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Pentru economie, cel mai bun trimestru este trimestrul 4 din an.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u00cen acest trimestru avem: Black Friday, Mo\u0219 Nicolae, Cr\u0103ciunul, Revelionul.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Cel mai slab trimestru este trimestrul 1 din an.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Oamenii cump\u0103r\u0103 mai pu\u021bin dup\u0103 dezm\u0103\u021bul financiar din noiembrie \u0219i decembrie.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Deci, evident, PIB-ul nominal din trim. 1 este mai mic dec\u00e2t cel din trim. 4.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Aici apare magia statisticii \u0219i a INS-ului.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u00cen fiecare trimestru, INS ajusteaz\u0103 PIB-ul dup\u0103 sezonalitate.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Pe rom\u00e2ne\u0219te, INS-ul spune ce PIB vrea.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Dup\u0103 cum am explicat de mai multe ori, toate datele la INS sunt trimise de companii \u00een documente Word.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Adic\u0103 \u00eentr-un format care nu are nicio leg\u0103tur\u0103 cu statistica \u0219i care nu permite verificarea datelor consolidate.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Acum sunt 2 situa\u021bii total diferite pentru Rom\u00e2nia.<\/em><\/p>\n<h3><em><strong>Cazul 1<\/strong><\/em><\/h3>\n<p><em>Dac\u0103 PIB-ul ajustat din trim. 1 2026 va sc\u0103dea fa\u021b\u0103 de PIB-ul ajustat din trim. 4 2025, \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 actualul Guvern este de 3 trimestre \u0219i toate trimestrele sunt \u00een sc\u0103dere economic\u0103.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Actuala formul\u0103 din Guvern va avea zero \u0219anse s\u0103 mai continue.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Ar \u00eensemna c\u0103 nici m\u0103car institu\u021biile de sub Guvern (INS) nu mai vor aceast\u0103 formul\u0103.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Evident c\u0103 toate emisiunile vor avea Breaking News cu pr\u0103bu\u0219irea economiei.<\/em><\/p>\n<h3><em><strong>Cazul 2<\/strong><\/em><\/h3>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><em>Dac\u0103, din contr\u0103, PIB-ul ajustat din trimestrul 1 2026 va cre\u0219te fa\u021b\u0103 de PIB-ul ajustat din trim. 4 2025, actualul Guvern prime\u0219te o bil\u0103 alb\u0103 de la INS.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Ar \u00eensemna c\u0103 institu\u021biile de sub Guvern (INS etc.) mai vor aceast\u0103 formul\u0103.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Evident c\u0103 la emisiuni, \u00een func\u021bie de apartenen\u021b\u0103, se va schimba Breaking News-ul.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Concluzii<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Po\u021bi s\u0103 te ui\u021bi la datele economice \u0219i vei \u0219ti care vor fi \u0219tirile politice din viitor.<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"crp_related     crp-masonry\">\n<h2>\u00ceN CONTEXT<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/economist-radu-georgescu-anul-2026-nici-chuck-tine-curs-valutar-leu-euro-bastion-economic-romania\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"crp_link post-114612\"><br \/>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"60\" src=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/radu-georgescu-80x60.png\" class=\"crp_featured crp_thumb td_80x60\" alt=\"radu georgescu\" title=\"Economistul Radu Georgescu: \u00cen anul 2026, nici Chuck Norris nu cred c\u0103 va mai putea s\u0103 \u021bin\u0103 cursul leu - euro. Va pica ultimul bastion economic \u00een Rom\u00e2nia\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/figure>\n<p><span class=\"crp_title\">Economistul Radu Georgescu: \u00cen anul 2026, nici Chuck Norris nu cred c\u0103\u2026<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/consumul-in-romania-prabusit-radu-georgescu-guvernul-bolojan-model-venezuela-inflatie-2026-pregatire-financiara-mentala\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"crp_link post-114384\"><br \/>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"60\" src=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/consumul-in-romania-radu-georgescu-80x60.png\" class=\"crp_featured crp_thumb td_80x60\" alt=\"consumul in romania radu georgescu\" title=\"Consumul \u00een Rom\u00e2nia s-a pr\u0103bu\u0219it | Radu Georgescu: \u00cen acest ritm, Guvernul Bolojan va lua modelul Venezuelei. Pentru 2026 trebuie s\u0103 ne preg\u0103tim financiar \u0219i mental\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/figure>\n<p><span class=\"crp_title\">Consumul \u00een Rom\u00e2nia s-a pr\u0103bu\u0219it | Radu Georgescu: \u00cen acest ritm,\u2026<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/economistul-radu-georgescu-daca-as-explica-la-tv-ca-donald-trump-are-dreptate-cu-taxele-vamale-probabil-as-fi-linsat-pe-retelele-sociale-romania-are-al-10-lea-cel-mai-mare-deficit-comercial-de-pe\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"crp_link post-108783\"><br \/>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"60\" src=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/top-deficit-80x60.jpg\" class=\"crp_featured crp_thumb td_80x60\" alt=\"top deficit\" title=\"Economistul Radu Georgescu: Dac\u0103 a\u0219 explica la TV c\u0103 Donald Trump are dreptate cu Taxele Vamale, probabil as fi lin\u0219at pe re\u021belele sociale \/ Rom\u00e2nia are al 10-lea cel mai mare deficit comercial de pe planeta P\u0103m\u00e2nt\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/figure>\n<p><span class=\"crp_title\">Economistul Radu Georgescu: Dac\u0103 a\u0219 explica la TV c\u0103 Donald Trump are\u2026<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/analiza-nivelul-de-trai-al-romanilor-blocat-de-evaziunea-fiscala-a-multinationalelor\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"crp_link post-80231\"><br \/>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"60\" src=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/multinationale-evazioniste-80x60.png\" class=\"crp_featured crp_thumb td_80x60\" alt=\"multinationale-evazioniste\" title=\"ANALIZ\u0102 | Nivelul de trai al rom\u00e2nilor, blocat de evaziunea fiscal\u0103 a multina\u021bionalelor\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/figure>\n<p><span class=\"crp_title\">ANALIZ\u0102 | Nivelul de trai al rom\u00e2nilor, blocat de evaziunea fiscal\u0103 a\u2026<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"td_block_wrap tdb_single_tags tdi_19 td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1\" data-td-block-uid=\"tdi_19\">\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<ul class=\"tdb-tags\">\n<li><span>SUBIECTE FIERBIN\u021aI<\/span><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/tag\/economia-romaniei\/\">economia romaniei<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/tag\/pib\/\">PIB<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/tag\/radu-georgescu\/\">radu georgescu<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"td_block_wrap td_block_9 tdi_20 td_with_ajax_pagination td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1 td-column-2 td_block_padding td_block_bot_line\" data-td-block-uid=\"tdi_20\">\n<div class=\"td-block-title-wrap\">\n<h4 class=\"block-title td-block-title\"><span class=\"td-pulldown-size\">CITE\u0218TE MAI MULT<\/span><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"tdi_20\" class=\"td_block_inner\">\n<div class=\"td-block-row\">\n<div class=\"td-block-span6\">\n<div class=\"td_module_8 td_module_wrap\">\n<div class=\"item-details\">\n<h3 class=\"entry-title td-module-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/r3media-search-google\/\" rel=\"bookmark\" title=\"Cum s\u0103 alegi R3media ca sursa ta favorit\u0103 pe Google\">Cum s\u0103 alegi R3media ca sursa ta favorit\u0103 pe Google<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"td-module-meta-info\"><a href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/category\/stiri-prim-plan\/\" class=\"td-post-category\">PRIM PLAN<\/a><span class=\"td-post-author-name\"><a href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/author\/redactia\/\">Redac\u021bia<\/a><span>&#8211;<\/span><\/span><span class=\"td-post-date\"><time class=\"entry-date updated td-module-date\" datetime=\"2026-05-17T08:32:02+03:00\">17\/05\/2026<\/time><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"td-block-span6\">\n<div class=\"td_module_8 td_module_wrap\">\n<div class=\"item-details\">\n<h3 class=\"entry-title td-module-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/bosnia-iugoslavia-europei\/\" rel=\"bookmark\" title=\"Bosnia, ultima Iugoslavie a Europei\">Bosnia, ultima Iugoslavie a Europei<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"td-module-meta-info\"><a href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/category\/actualitate\/\" class=\"td-post-category\">ACTUALITATE<\/a><span class=\"td-post-author-name\"><a href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/author\/gabipopa\/\">Gabriel Popa<\/a><span>&#8211;<\/span><\/span><span class=\"td-post-date\"><time class=\"entry-date updated td-module-date\" datetime=\"2026-05-16T17:36:00+03:00\">16\/05\/2026<\/time><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"td-block-row\">\n<div class=\"td-block-span6\">\n<div class=\"td_module_8 td_module_wrap\">\n<div class=\"item-details\">\n<h3 class=\"entry-title td-module-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/romanii-boteaza-copii-nume-exotice-constantin-ion-andreea-eric-mark-emma\/\" rel=\"bookmark\" title=\"Rom\u00e2nii \u00ee\u0219i boteaz\u0103 tot mai des copiii cu nume exotice. 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S-a prabusit?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"comment-meta\" id=\"comment-39904\"><a rel=\"nofollow\" class=\"comment-reply-link\" href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/economist-radu-georgescu-economia-romania\/#comment-39904\" data-commentid=\"39904\" data-postid=\"116121\" data-belowelement=\"comment-39904\" data-respondelement=\"respond\" data-replyto=\"R\u0103spunde-i lui Haleu\" aria-label=\"R\u0103spunde-i lui Haleu\">R\u0103spund<\/a><\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"comment \" id=\"comment-39900\">\n<article>\n<footer><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"ORT\" src=\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/eef91f5af73b04655d8eb8dca58fcc4e9298691be3d8ce71d2a87c8660346afd?s=50&amp;d=wp_user_avatar&amp;r=g\" class=\"avatar avatar-50 photo\" height=\"50\" width=\"50\"><cite>ORT<\/cite><a class=\"comment-link\" href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/economist-radu-georgescu-economia-romania\/#comment-39900\"><time><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t    12\/05\/2026\t\t\t\t\t\t    La\t\t\t\t\t\t    14:44<\/time><\/a><\/footer>\n<div class=\"comment-content\">\n<p>Dl. Georgescu este un personaj al sistemului. Nu v\u0103 va oferi niciodat\u0103 solu\u021bii de salvare \u2013 fie ea \u0219i individual\u0103. Prioritatea dumisale va fi mereu \u0219i mereu sistemul.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"comment-meta\" id=\"comment-39900\"><a rel=\"nofollow\" class=\"comment-reply-link\" href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/economist-radu-georgescu-economia-romania\/#comment-39900\" data-commentid=\"39900\" data-postid=\"116121\" data-belowelement=\"comment-39900\" data-respondelement=\"respond\" data-replyto=\"R\u0103spunde-i lui ORT\" aria-label=\"R\u0103spunde-i lui ORT\">R\u0103spund<\/a><\/div>\n<\/article>\n<ul class=\"children\">\n<li class=\"comment \" id=\"comment-39903\">\n<article>\n<footer><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Redac\u021bia\" src=\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/75dc326985e212076cf4276d2b19cc644ab402de6ca86d10dc0a0cbc7a1af4fb?s=50&amp;d=wp_user_avatar&amp;r=g\" class=\"avatar avatar-50 photo\" height=\"50\" width=\"50\"><cite>Redac\u021bia<\/cite><a class=\"comment-link\" href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/economist-radu-georgescu-economia-romania\/#comment-39903\"><time><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t    13\/05\/2026\t\t\t\t\t\t    La\t\t\t\t\t\t    15:00<\/time><\/a><\/footer>\n<div class=\"comment-content\">\n<p>Dimpotriv\u0103: dl Radu Georgescu a oferit \u0219i ofer\u0103 mereu solu\u021bii individuale de salvare. A spus clar c\u0103 doar salv\u0103rile individuale sunt posibile. Dar dac\u0103 nu a\u021bi citit\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"comment-meta\" id=\"comment-39903\"><a rel=\"nofollow\" class=\"comment-reply-link\" href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/economist-radu-georgescu-economia-romania\/#comment-39903\" data-commentid=\"39903\" data-postid=\"116121\" data-belowelement=\"comment-39903\" data-respondelement=\"respond\" data-replyto=\"R\u0103spunde-i lui Redac\u021bia\" aria-label=\"R\u0103spunde-i lui Redac\u021bia\">R\u0103spund<\/a><\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<div id=\"respond\" class=\"comment-respond\">\n<h3 id=\"reply-title\" class=\"comment-reply-title\">AI CEVA DE SPUS? <small><a rel=\"nofollow\" id=\"cancel-comment-reply-link\" href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/economist-radu-georgescu-economia-romania\/#respond\">Renun\u021ba\u021bi la r\u0103spuns<\/a><\/small><\/h3>\n<div class=\"comment-form-input-wrap td-form-comment\">\n<div class=\"td-warning-comment\">V\u0103 rug\u0103m s\u0103 introduce\u021bi comentariul dvs.!<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"comment-form-input-wrap td-form-author\">\n<div class=\"td-warning-author\">Introduce\u021bi aici numele dvs.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"comment-form-input-wrap td-form-email\">\n<div class=\"td-warning-email-error\">A\u021bi introdus o adres\u0103 de e-mail incorect\u0103!<\/div>\n<div class=\"td-warning-email\">V\u0103 rug\u0103m s\u0103 introduce\u021bi adresa dvs. de e-mail aici<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"vc_column tdi_23  wpb_column vc_column_container tdc-column td-pb-span4 td-is-sticky\">\n<div class=\"wpb_wrapper\" data-sticky-enabled-on=\"W3RydWUsdHJ1ZSx0cnVlLHRydWVd\" data-sticky-offset=\"20\" data-sticky-is-width-auto=\"W2ZhbHNlLGZhbHNlLGZhbHNlLGZhbHNlXQ==\">\n<div class=\"wpb_wrapper td_block_wrap vc_widget_sidebar tdi_25 \">\n<aside class=\"td_block_template_1 widget tptn_posts_list_widget\">\n<h4 class=\"block-title\"><span>CE MAI CITE\u0218TE LUMEA<\/span><\/h4>\n<div 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Ce a descoperit deputatul \u00een Uganda\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/aside>\n<div class=\"td_block_wrap td_block_7 td_block_widget tdi_26 td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1 td-column-1 td_block_padding\" data-td-block-uid=\"tdi_26\">\n<div class=\"td-block-title-wrap\">\n<h4 class=\"block-title td-block-title\"><span class=\"td-pulldown-size\">Articole RELA\u021aIONATE<\/span><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"tdi_26\" class=\"td_block_inner\">\n<div class=\"td-block-span12\">\n<div class=\"td_module_6 td_module_wrap td-animation-stack\">\n<div class=\"td-module-thumb\"><a href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/oras-suedia-autobuze-electrice-experiment\/\" rel=\"bookmark\" class=\"td-image-wrap \" title=\"Un ora\u0219 din Suedia renun\u021b\u0103 la autobuzele electrice: A fost un experiment nereu\u0219it\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"entry-thumb\" src=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/autobuz-electric-probleme-suedia-100x70.webp\" 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class=\"td-image-wrap \" title=\"Calendarul zilei 18 mai: Sf\u00e2ntul Mucenic Teodot din Ancira\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"entry-thumb\" src=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/sddefault-5-100x70.jpg\" alt title=\"Calendarul zilei 18 mai: Sf\u00e2ntul Mucenic Teodot din Ancira\" width=\"100\" height=\"70\"><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"item-details\">\n<h3 class=\"entry-title td-module-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/calendarul-zilei-sfantul-mucenic-teodot-din-ancira\/\" rel=\"bookmark\" title=\"Calendarul zilei 18 mai: Sf\u00e2ntul Mucenic Teodot din Ancira\">Calendarul zilei 18 mai: Sf\u00e2ntul Mucenic Teodot din Ancira<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"td-module-meta-info\"><span class=\"td-post-date\"><time class=\"entry-date updated td-module-date\" datetime=\"2026-05-17T11:00:23+03:00\">17\/05\/2026<\/time><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><span class=\"td-page-meta\"><\/span><span class=\"td-page-meta\"><span class=\"td-page-meta\"><\/span><\/span><span class=\"td-page-meta\"><\/span><\/article>\n<\/p>\n<div class=\"td_block_wrap tdb_single_content tdi_18 td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1 td-post-content tagdiv-type\" data-td-block-uid=\"tdi_18\">\n<div class=\"tdb-block-inner td-fix-index\">\n<div class=\"heateor_sss_sharing_container heateor_sss_horizontal_sharing\" data-heateor-sss-href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/economist-radu-georgescu-economia-romania\/\">\n<div class=\"heateor_sss_sharing_title\">D\u0103 mai departe, nu \u021bine doar pentru tine<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>Economistul <a href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/tag\/radu-georgescu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Radu Georgescu<\/a> a spus care vor fi cele dou\u0103 cazuri de evolu\u021bie politic\u0103 \u00een Rom\u00e2nia \u00een func\u021bie de PIB-ul ajustat din trimestrul 1 din anul 2026.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Radu Georgescu:<\/strong><em>Lec\u021bia zilnic\u0103 de economie<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Eu am zero interes pentru politic\u0103.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Nu simpatizez niciun partid.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Nu m\u0103 uit la nicio emisiune politic\u0103.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Dar probabil pot s\u0103 estimez evolu\u021bia politic\u0103 mai bine dec\u00e2t majoritatea anali\u0219tilor politici de la TV \u0219i de pe re\u021belele sociale.<\/em><br \/><em>S\u0103 \u00eencepem.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Miercuri, 13 mai, ora 9, vom afla dac\u0103 economia se pr\u0103bu\u0219e\u0219te.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>De asemenea, vom afla care va fi noul Guvern.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>La acea or\u0103 se va publica PIB-ul Rom\u00e2niei pe trimestrul 1 2026.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>De\u0219i toat\u0103 lumea din Rom\u00e2nia vorbe\u0219te sau a auzit de PIB, nu cred c\u0103 sunt 10 persoane \u00een Rom\u00e2nia care s\u0103 \u00een\u021beleag\u0103 cu adev\u0103rat ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 PIB-ul.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Sunt aproximativ 10 no\u021biuni diferite despre PIB.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u00ce\u021bi explic mai jos:<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>PIB nominal: valoarea generat\u0103 de economie \u00eentr-o anumit\u0103 perioad\u0103 (an, trimestru);<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>PIB real: PIB-ul nominal este ajustat cu infla\u021bia, deoarece o parte a PIB-ului nominal este crescut\u0103 de infla\u021bie;<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>PIB serie brut\u0103: este PIB-ul real, dar publicat pe fiecare trimestru;<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>PIB serie ajustat\u0103: INS face ajust\u0103ri \u00een func\u021bie de sezonalitate: num\u0103r de zile lucr\u0103toare, s\u0103rb\u0103tori etc.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Conven\u021bia economic\u0103 este c\u0103 recesiunea\/cre\u0219terea economic\u0103 se calculeaz\u0103 \u00een func\u021bie de PIB-ul ajustat al trimestrelor consecutive.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Pentru economie, cel mai bun trimestru este trimestrul 4 din an.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u00cen acest trimestru avem: Black Friday, Mo\u0219 Nicolae, Cr\u0103ciunul, Revelionul.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Cel mai slab trimestru este trimestrul 1 din an.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Oamenii cump\u0103r\u0103 mai pu\u021bin dup\u0103 dezm\u0103\u021bul financiar din noiembrie \u0219i decembrie.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Deci, evident, PIB-ul nominal din trim. 1 este mai mic dec\u00e2t cel din trim. 4.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Aici apare magia statisticii \u0219i a INS-ului.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u00cen fiecare trimestru, INS ajusteaz\u0103 PIB-ul dup\u0103 sezonalitate.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Pe rom\u00e2ne\u0219te, INS-ul spune ce PIB vrea.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Dup\u0103 cum am explicat de mai multe ori, toate datele la INS sunt trimise de companii \u00een documente Word.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Adic\u0103 \u00eentr-un format care nu are nicio leg\u0103tur\u0103 cu statistica \u0219i care nu permite verificarea datelor consolidate.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Acum sunt 2 situa\u021bii total diferite pentru Rom\u00e2nia.<\/em><\/p>\n<h3><em><strong>Cazul 1<\/strong><\/em><\/h3>\n<p><em>Dac\u0103 PIB-ul ajustat din trim. 1 2026 va sc\u0103dea fa\u021b\u0103 de PIB-ul ajustat din trim. 4 2025, \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 actualul Guvern este de 3 trimestre \u0219i toate trimestrele sunt \u00een sc\u0103dere economic\u0103.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Actuala formul\u0103 din Guvern va avea zero \u0219anse s\u0103 mai continue.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Ar \u00eensemna c\u0103 nici m\u0103car institu\u021biile de sub Guvern (INS) nu mai vor aceast\u0103 formul\u0103.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Evident c\u0103 toate emisiunile vor avea Breaking News cu pr\u0103bu\u0219irea economiei.<\/em><\/p>\n<h3><em><strong>Cazul 2<\/strong><\/em><\/h3>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><em>Dac\u0103, din contr\u0103, PIB-ul ajustat din trimestrul 1 2026 va cre\u0219te fa\u021b\u0103 de PIB-ul ajustat din trim. 4 2025, actualul Guvern prime\u0219te o bil\u0103 alb\u0103 de la INS.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Ar \u00eensemna c\u0103 institu\u021biile de sub Guvern (INS etc.) mai vor aceast\u0103 formul\u0103.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Evident c\u0103 la emisiuni, \u00een func\u021bie de apartenen\u021b\u0103, se va schimba Breaking News-ul.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Concluzii<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Po\u021bi s\u0103 te ui\u021bi la datele economice \u0219i vei \u0219ti care vor fi \u0219tirile politice din viitor.<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"crp_related     crp-masonry\">\n<h2>\u00ceN CONTEXT<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/economist-radu-georgescu-anul-2026-nici-chuck-tine-curs-valutar-leu-euro-bastion-economic-romania\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"crp_link post-114612\"><br \/>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"60\" src=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/radu-georgescu-80x60.png\" class=\"crp_featured crp_thumb td_80x60\" alt=\"radu georgescu\" title=\"Economistul Radu Georgescu: \u00cen anul 2026, nici Chuck Norris nu cred c\u0103 va mai putea s\u0103 \u021bin\u0103 cursul leu - euro. Va pica ultimul bastion economic \u00een Rom\u00e2nia\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/figure>\n<p><span class=\"crp_title\">Economistul Radu Georgescu: \u00cen anul 2026, nici Chuck Norris nu cred c\u0103\u2026<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/consumul-in-romania-prabusit-radu-georgescu-guvernul-bolojan-model-venezuela-inflatie-2026-pregatire-financiara-mentala\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"crp_link post-114384\"><br \/>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"60\" src=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/consumul-in-romania-radu-georgescu-80x60.png\" class=\"crp_featured crp_thumb td_80x60\" alt=\"consumul in romania radu georgescu\" title=\"Consumul \u00een Rom\u00e2nia s-a pr\u0103bu\u0219it | Radu Georgescu: \u00cen acest ritm, Guvernul Bolojan va lua modelul Venezuelei. Pentru 2026 trebuie s\u0103 ne preg\u0103tim financiar \u0219i mental\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/figure>\n<p><span class=\"crp_title\">Consumul \u00een Rom\u00e2nia s-a pr\u0103bu\u0219it | Radu Georgescu: \u00cen acest ritm,\u2026<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/economistul-radu-georgescu-daca-as-explica-la-tv-ca-donald-trump-are-dreptate-cu-taxele-vamale-probabil-as-fi-linsat-pe-retelele-sociale-romania-are-al-10-lea-cel-mai-mare-deficit-comercial-de-pe\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"crp_link post-108783\"><br \/>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"60\" src=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/top-deficit-80x60.jpg\" class=\"crp_featured crp_thumb td_80x60\" alt=\"top deficit\" title=\"Economistul Radu Georgescu: Dac\u0103 a\u0219 explica la TV c\u0103 Donald Trump are dreptate cu Taxele Vamale, probabil as fi lin\u0219at pe re\u021belele sociale \/ Rom\u00e2nia are al 10-lea cel mai mare deficit comercial de pe planeta P\u0103m\u00e2nt\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/figure>\n<p><span class=\"crp_title\">Economistul Radu Georgescu: Dac\u0103 a\u0219 explica la TV c\u0103 Donald Trump are\u2026<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/analiza-nivelul-de-trai-al-romanilor-blocat-de-evaziunea-fiscala-a-multinationalelor\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"crp_link post-80231\"><br \/>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"60\" src=\"https:\/\/r3media.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/multinationale-evazioniste-80x60.png\" class=\"crp_featured crp_thumb td_80x60\" alt=\"multinationale-evazioniste\" title=\"ANALIZ\u0102 | Nivelul de trai al rom\u00e2nilor, blocat de evaziunea fiscal\u0103 a multina\u021bionalelor\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/figure>\n<p><span class=\"crp_title\">ANALIZ\u0102 | Nivelul de trai al rom\u00e2nilor, blocat de evaziunea fiscal\u0103 a\u2026<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>[analyse_source url=&#8221;https:\/\/r3media.ro\/economist-radu-georgescu-economia-romania\/&#8221;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/r3media.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/radu-georgescu.pnghttps:\/\/r3media.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/radu-georgescu.png&#8221;] ACTUALITATEEconomistul Radu Georgescu: Miercuri, 13 mai, vom afla dac\u0103 economia Romaniei se&#8230; ACTUALITATEECONOMIE\u0218TIRI Economistul Radu Georgescu: Miercuri, 13 mai, vom afla dac\u0103 economia Romaniei se pr\u0103bu\u0219e\u0219te Oana Ivan 11\/05\/2026 Surs\u0103 &#8211; Radu Georgescu D\u0103 mai departe, nu \u021bine doar pentru tine Economistul Radu Georgescu a spus care vor fi cele dou\u0103 cazuri [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[89],"tags":[226,93],"class_list":["post-1940465","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-romania","tag-crawlmanager","tag-r3media-ro"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1940465","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1940465"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1940465\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1940465"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1940465"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1940465"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}