The Times<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\nO actualizare a scenariilor \u0219tiin\u021bifice utilizate pentru a prezice clima viitoare a P\u0103m\u00e2ntului relev\u0103 o fereastr\u0103 de posibilit\u0103\u021bi restr\u00e2ns\u0103, iar cel mai apocaliptic scenariu de co\u0219mar este exclus datorit\u0103 dezvolt\u0103rii rapide din domeniul energiei regenerabile.<\/p>\n
Scenariile prev\u0103zute de climatologi \u00een 2010 presupuneau c\u0103 cea mai catastrofic\u0103 posibilitate era o cre\u0219tere de aproximativ 4,5\u00b0C peste nivelurile preindustriale p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 2100. Totu\u0219i, acest lucru nu mai este considerat probabil. Un nou scenariu cu emisii ridicate prognozeaz\u0103 o \u00eenc\u0103lzire de aproximativ 3,5 \u00b0C p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 2100.<\/p>\n
C\u0103ile actualizate au fost dezvoltate de Proiectul de Intercomparare a Modelelor de Scenarii (ScenarioMIP), un comitet director interna\u021bional format din 20 de exper\u021bi \u0219tiin\u021bifici.<\/p>\n
Cadrul lor stabile\u0219te regulile de baz\u0103 esen\u021biale privind modul \u00een care supercomputerele vor modela clima P\u0103m\u00e2ntului \u00een urm\u0103torii ani. Proiec\u021biile vor constitui, de asemenea, probabil coloana vertebral\u0103 a urm\u0103toarei evalu\u0103ri majore a Grupului Interguvernamental privind Schimb\u0103rile Climatice (IPCC) al ONU \u0219i vor influen\u021ba viitoarea politic\u0103 climatic\u0103 global\u0103.<\/p>\n
Detlef van Vuuren, cercet\u0103tor principal la Agen\u021bia Olandez\u0103 de Evaluare a Mediului \u0219i autor principal al unui studiu privind scenariile actualizate, a afirmat c\u0103 energia regenerabil\u0103 mai ieftin\u0103 \u0219i eforturile \u021b\u0103rilor de combatere a schimb\u0103rilor climatice din ultimul deceniu au reu\u0219it s\u0103 reduc\u0103 curba emisiilor. Roger Pielke, un blogger specializat \u00een clim\u0103, a atras aten\u021bia asupra articolului \u0219i a sugerat c\u0103 acesta a fost prea pu\u021bin mediatizat \u00een afara Olandei, unde \u00ee\u0219i desf\u0103\u0219oar\u0103 activitatea van Vuuren.<\/p>\n
Cu toate acestea, van Vuuren a avertizat c\u0103 revizuirea \u00een sens descendent nu este \u201eun motiv de s\u0103rb\u0103toare\u201d. El a spus: \u201eAcea valoare [de 3,5 \u00b0C] ar r\u0103m\u00e2ne totu\u0219i un scenariu extrem de pesimist, cu impact climatic considerabil. \u00cen acela\u0219i timp, da, este \u00eentr-o oarecare m\u0103sur\u0103 o veste bun\u0103 faptul c\u0103 exist\u0103 semne c\u0103 energiile regenerabile devin mai ieftine, ceea ce are un impact asupra proiec\u021biilor noastre.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u00cen plus, incertitudinile privind gradul de sensibilitate al climei P\u0103m\u00e2ntului la cre\u0219terea cantit\u0103\u021bii de gaze cu efect de ser\u0103 pompate \u00een atmosfer\u0103 \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103, chiar \u0219i \u00een cadrul acestei traiectorii de emisii u\u0219or mai reduse, \u00eenc\u0103lzirea ar putea ajunge s\u0103 dep\u0103\u0219easc\u0103 4\u00b0C, a spus van Vuuren. El a spus c\u0103 vechiul scenariu cu emisii ridicate din 2010 a fost \u00eentotdeauna conceput ca un \u201escenariu cu probabilitate redus\u0103, dar cu impact ridicat\u201d, mai degrab\u0103 dec\u00e2t un caz de \u201eestimare optimist\u0103\u201d.<\/p>\n
El a ap\u0103rat crearea ini\u021bial\u0103 a scenariului, argument\u00e2nd c\u0103 era extrem de util pentru scopuri specifice de gestionare a riscurilor. De exemplu, el a men\u021bionat c\u0103, dac\u0103 un guvern construia infrastructur\u0103 precum ap\u0103r\u0103ri \u00eempotriva inunda\u021biilor, trebuia s\u0103 \u021bin\u0103 cont de consecin\u021bele climatice extreme.<\/p>\n
Noul articol al echipei sale sugereaz\u0103, de asemenea, c\u0103, la cel\u0103lalt cap\u0103t al scalei, scenariile optimiste pentru limitarea \u00eenc\u0103lzirii nu mai sunt plauzibile. Perspectiva \u00eendeplinirii obiectivului Acordului climatic de la Paris de a limita \u00eenc\u0103lzirea la 1,5 \u00b0C f\u0103r\u0103 a o \u201edep\u0103\u0219i\u201d \u0219i a fi nevoi\u021bi apoi s\u0103 reducem temperaturile prin plantarea de copaci este acum \u201einaccesibil\u0103\u201d, a spus el.<\/p>\n
Problema este c\u0103 lumea a urmat \u00een mare parte o traiectorie moderat\u0103 a emisiilor, \u00een loc s\u0103 fac\u0103 reduceri drastice \u0219i imediate, a spus el.<\/p>\n
\u00cen schimb, noul scenariu de emisii \u201efoarte sc\u0103zute\u201d recunoa\u0219te c\u0103 vom dep\u0103\u0219i inevitabil limita de 1,5 \u00b0C, ajung\u00e2nd poten\u021bial la 1,7 \u00b0C sau chiar 2\u00b0C \u00eenainte ca temperaturile s\u0103 scad\u0103 \u00een cele din urm\u0103.<\/p>\n
Editor : B.E. <\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n[analyse_source url=”https:\/\/www.digi24.ro\/stiri\/sci-tech\/natura-si-mediu\/cel-mai-apocaliptic-scenariu-climatic-a-fost-respins-de-experti-temperatura-medie-globala-va-creste-cu-maximum-35c-pana-in-2100-3766897″]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
[analyse_image type=”featured” src=”https:\/\/s.iw.ro\/gateway\/g\/ZmlsZVNvdXJjZT1odHRwJTNBJTJGJTJG\/c3RvcmFnZTA4dHJhbnNjb2Rlci5yY3Mt\/cmRzLnJvJTJGc3RvcmFnZSUyRjIwMjQl\/MkYwNiUyRjE5JTJGMjAwNTA3OF8yMDA1\/MDc4X3RlcnJhLXBhbWFudHVsLXByb2Zp\/bWVkaWEuanBnJnc9MTIwMCZoPTYzMCZ6\/Yz0xJmhhc2g9Y2EyNTM5NzczM2E5M2U4NzM4MDNhZmQ0MjdhYmM0Yzc=.thumb.jpg”] Cercet\u0103torii climatologi nu mai consider\u0103 probabil\u0103 o cre\u0219tere catastrofal\u0103 de 4,5 \u00b0C fa\u021b\u0103 de nivelurile preindustriale p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 2100, prev\u0103z\u00e2nd \u00een schimb o cre\u0219tere maxim\u0103 de 3,5 \u00b0C, dup\u0103 ce cele mai extreme scenarii privind \u00eenc\u0103lzirea global\u0103 au fost respinse ca fiind improbabile de c\u0103tre cei mai renumi\u021bi speciali\u0219ti \u00een modelarea climatic\u0103 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[89],"tags":[226,11],"class_list":["post-1939770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-romania","tag-crawlmanager","tag-digi24"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1939770","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1939770"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1939770\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1939770"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1939770"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1939770"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}