{"id":1937140,"date":"2026-05-15T14:44:32","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T11:44:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1937140"},"modified":"2026-05-15T14:44:32","modified_gmt":"2026-05-15T11:44:32","slug":"what-is-the-thucydides-trap-that-xi-invoked-in-his-meeting-with-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1937140","title":{"rendered":"What is the &#8216;Thucydides Trap&#8217; that Xi invoked in his meeting with Trump?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/76\/02\/50\/1200x675_cmsv2_25370119-0583-5ac1-a1b6-bcb3d2495909-9760250.jpg&#8221;]<\/p>\n<article id=\"abe-2892172-pos1-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1\" data-nid=\"2892172\" data-cid=\"9751389\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2892172-label-pos1-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/75\/13\/89\/189x106_cmsv2_1fb66453-69a5-5bf3-a9ba-9dffd918078b-9751389.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Demonstrator stands on head of lion on the side of the Westminster Bridge, during a Tommy Robinson-led Unite the Kingdom march and rally in London, 13 September 2025.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    The Cube<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    MEP and far-right influencers barred from UK rally: What&#8217;s the reason?\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2893412-pos2-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1\" data-nid=\"2893412\" data-cid=\"9757097\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2893412-label-pos2-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/75\/70\/02\/189x106_cmsv2_b0090db4-df1f-5cb0-92e5-974ded8bd273-9757002.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Stock image- Photovoltaic panels\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Earth News<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Greece has abundant cheap green energy. Why are bills still high?\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2893715-pos3-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1\" data-nid=\"2893715\" data-cid=\"9758653\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2893715-label-pos3-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/75\/86\/53\/189x106_cmsv2_4dc85fae-75c3-5228-ba0e-c9d190a41ca0-9758653.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Audemars Piguet and Swatch\u2019s new Royal Pop collection.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Lifestyle<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    This historic watchmaking house is \u2018breaking the industry narrative\u2019\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2894010-pos4-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1\" data-nid=\"2894010\" data-cid=\"9760172\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2894010-label-pos4-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/76\/01\/72\/189x106_cmsv2_565fa705-3835-5cda-a160-2dbb82e99519-9760172.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"FILE: A medical worker checks the quarantine area of the Matanda Hospital in Butembo, where the first case of Ebola died, in Congo Thursday, Feb. 11, 2021\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Health news<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    What we know about Congo&#8217;s new Ebola outbreak\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2892172-pos1-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2\" data-nid=\"2892172\" data-cid=\"9751389\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2892172-label-pos1-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/75\/13\/89\/189x106_cmsv2_1fb66453-69a5-5bf3-a9ba-9dffd918078b-9751389.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Demonstrator stands on head of lion on the side of the Westminster Bridge, during a Tommy Robinson-led Unite the Kingdom march and rally in London, 13 September 2025.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    The Cube<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    MEP and far-right influencers barred from UK rally: What&#8217;s the reason?\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2893412-pos2-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2\" data-nid=\"2893412\" data-cid=\"9757097\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2893412-label-pos2-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/75\/70\/02\/189x106_cmsv2_b0090db4-df1f-5cb0-92e5-974ded8bd273-9757002.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Stock image- Photovoltaic panels\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Earth News<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Greece has abundant cheap green energy. Why are bills still high?\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2893715-pos3-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2\" data-nid=\"2893715\" data-cid=\"9758653\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2893715-label-pos3-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/75\/86\/53\/189x106_cmsv2_4dc85fae-75c3-5228-ba0e-c9d190a41ca0-9758653.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Audemars Piguet and Swatch\u2019s new Royal Pop collection.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Lifestyle<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    This historic watchmaking house is \u2018breaking the industry narrative\u2019\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2894010-pos4-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2\" data-nid=\"2894010\" data-cid=\"9760172\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2894010-label-pos4-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/76\/01\/72\/189x106_cmsv2_565fa705-3835-5cda-a160-2dbb82e99519-9760172.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"FILE: A medical worker checks the quarantine area of the Matanda Hospital in Butembo, where the first case of Ebola died, in Congo Thursday, Feb. 11, 2021\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Health news<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    What we know about Congo&#8217;s new Ebola outbreak\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"helper-site-row o-article-newsy\">\n<div class=\"helper-site-container o-article-newsy__container\">\n<div class=\"o-article-newsy__main\">\n<header class=\"h-grid o-article-newsy__main__header\">\n<nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumbs\" class=\"c-article-breadcrumbs\">\n<div id=\"adb-article-breadcrumb\" class=\"c-article-breadcrumbs__list\">\n<p>                          News<\/p>\n<p>                          World<\/p>\n<p>                          China<\/p><\/div>\n<\/nav>\n<h1 class=\"c-article-redesign-title\">\n                            What is the &#8216;Thucydides Trap&#8217; that Xi invoked in his meeting with Trump?<\/h1>\n<div class=\"c-article-image-video u-position-relative \">\n<div class=\"js-superdiv u-aspect-ratio-16x9 u-position-relative \" data-sponsored=\"Partner content\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"js-poster-img c-article-media__img\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/76\/02\/50\/1536x864_cmsv2_25370119-0583-5ac1-a1b6-bcb3d2495909-9760250.jpg\" width=\"1536\" height=\"864\" loading=\"eager\" alt=\"A Thucydides mosaic in Jordan\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-caption u-position-absolute\"><i id=\"article-caption-content\" class=\"c-article-caption__content\"><span class=\"c-article-caption__text\"><br \/>\n              A Thucydides mosaic in Jordan<br \/>\n                    <span class=\"u-color-white\">&#8211;\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"c-article-caption__copyright\">Copyright\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"c-article-caption__credit\">Wikimedia Commons<\/span><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-image-copyright c-article-image-copyright--novideo\">\n      Copyright\u00a0Wikimedia Commons\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"h-grid o-article-newsy__main__body u-article-content\">\n<div class=\"o-article-newsy__contributors-publication-date\">\n<div class=\"c-article-contributors\">\n  By&amp;nbspCagla Uren\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-publication-date\" data-timestamp=\"1778856272\">\n         Published on<br \/>\n            <time datetime=\"2026-05-15 16:44:32 +02:00\">15\/05\/2026 &#8211; 16:44 GMT+2<\/time><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-partage-commentaire u-align-items-center u-display-flex\"><span class=\"c-article-partage-commentaire__links u-align-items-center u-display-flex u-justify-content-center js-c-article-partage-commentaire-share\"><span>Share<\/span><\/span><span>Comments<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-partage-commentaire-popup-overlay js-c-article-partage-commentaire-popup-overlay u-display-none\">\n<div id=\"js-c-article-partage-commentaire-popup\" class=\"c-article-partage-commentaire-popup js-c-article-partage-commentaire-popup\">\n<div class=\"c-article-partage-commentaire-popup__header u-display-flex\"><span>Share<\/span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/icon-close.svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" alt=\"Close Button\" class=\"u-cursor-pointer js-c-article-partage-commentaire-close\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/div>\n<div 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height=\"24\" alt=\"bluesky\" loading=\"lazy\"><span>Bluesky<\/span><\/span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-bluesky.svg\" width=\"48\" height=\"48\" alt=\"bluesky\" class=\"u-show-for-desktop\" loading=\"lazy\"><span class=\"u-display-flex u-gap-1 u-show-for-mobile-only\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-threads.svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" alt=\"threads\" loading=\"lazy\"><span>Threads<\/span><\/span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-threads.svg\" width=\"48\" height=\"48\" alt=\"threads\" class=\"u-show-for-desktop\" loading=\"lazy\"><span class=\"u-display-flex u-gap-1 u-show-for-mobile-only\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-whatsapp.svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" alt=\"whatsapp\" loading=\"lazy\"><span>Whatsapp<\/span><\/span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-whatsapp.svg\" width=\"48\" height=\"48\" alt=\"whatsapp\" class=\"u-show-for-desktop\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"c-article-summary\">\n        Xi Jinping opened his Beijing summit with Trump by asking whether the two powers could avoid the &#8220;Thucydides Trap&#8221; \u2014 then warned that mishandling Taiwan could lead to war.<br \/>\n    <\/h2>\n<div class=\"c-article-content js-article-content\">\n<p>When the leaders of the world&#8217;s two largest economies met in Beijing on Thursday, the opening subject was not Taiwan, trade or the war in the Middle East. It was a conflict that ended more than two millennia ago.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"c-ad u-show-for-mobile-only\">\n<div class=\"c-ad__placeholder\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"c-ad__placeholder__logo\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/logos\/logo-euronews-stacked-outlined-72x72-grey-9.svg\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" alt loading=\"lazy\"><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-ad u-show-for-desktop\">\n<div class=\"c-ad__placeholder\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"c-ad__placeholder__logo\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/logos\/logo-euronews-stacked-outlined-72x72-grey-9.svg\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" alt loading=\"lazy\"><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&#8220;The world has come to a new crossroads,&#8221; Chinese President Xi Jinping told Donald Trump as the two began their summit at the Great Hall of the People in the Chinese capital.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Can China and the United States overcome the so-called &#8216;Thucydides Trap&#8217; and create a new paradigm of major-country relations?&#8221; Xi asked, resulting in a surge in searches for the term and questions over whether he was making a threat against Trump and the US.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>What is the Thucydides Trap?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The concept was coined by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison in the early 2010s, drawing on the ancient Greek historian Thucydides&#8217;s account of the Peloponnesian War \u2014 the nearly three-decade conflict between Athens and Sparta that began in 431 BC. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable,&#8221; Thucydides wrote.<\/p>\n<p>Allison applied the pattern to modern history, identifying 16 cases over the past 500 years in which a rising power was seen as threatening an established one, of which 12 ended in war. <\/p>\n<p>In this framing, China is cast as the rising Athens to America&#8217;s Sparta. Xi has invoked the concept since at least 2013 to specifically argue that war is not inevitable \u2014 provided both sides exercise restraint. <\/p>\n<p>In a 2015 speech in Seattle, he said there was &#8220;no such thing&#8221; as an inevitability of conflict, but warned that &#8220;should major countries time and again make the mistakes of strategic miscalculation, they might create such traps for themselves.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Xi is not the only one drawn to the concept. During Trump&#8217;s first term, national security adviser HR McMaster and defence secretary James Mattis were both known students of Thucydides.<\/p>\n<p>Trump&#8217;s former chief strategist and alt-right pundit Steve Bannon invoked the trap in a 2018 interview to make the case for standing up to Beijing in an apparent opposite of Xi&#8217;s reading.<\/p>\n<p>Allison&#8217;s framework has attracted serious academic criticism, ranging from misidentifying historical cases to producing a model that leaves no room for diplomacy or political agency to prevent conflict.<\/p>\n<p>One example that was excluded, according to experts, is the peaceful transfer of global leadership from Britain to the US in the 20th century, which suggests war between a rising and ruling power is far from inevitable.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Taiwan warning<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Xi&#8217;s historical reference came directly before a warning on Taiwan, telling Trump that the two countries &#8220;could collide or even come into conflict&#8221; if the Taiwan issue is mishandled. <\/p>\n<p>Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning later summarised Xi&#8217;s position as &#8220;&#8216;Taiwan independence&#8217; and cross-strait peace are as irreconcilable as fire and water.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Trump did not address Taiwan during the joint appearance. A White House readout, which did not mention Taiwan, said the two leaders had &#8220;a good meeting&#8221; centred on economic cooperation.<\/p>\n<p>Xi adopted a warmer register later in the day, saying China&#8217;s national rejuvenation and the goal of making America great again &#8220;can move forward together completely and can increase prosperity for the entire world.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Trump responded on Truth Social, reading Xi&#8217;s Thucydides reference as a comment on American decline \u2014 but placing it in the Biden years. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;When President Xi very elegantly referred to the United States as perhaps being a declining nation, he was referring to the tremendous damage we suffered during the four years of Sleepy Joe Biden,&#8221; Trump wrote early on Friday.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTwo years ago, we were, in fact, a nation in decline,\u201d the US president said. \u201cNow, the United States is the hottest nation anywhere in the world, and hopefully our relationship with China will be stronger and better than ever before.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>                                  Go to accessibility shortcuts<\/p>\n<div class=\"c-article-partage-commentaire u-align-items-center u-display-flex\"><span class=\"c-article-partage-commentaire__links u-align-items-center u-display-flex u-justify-content-center js-c-article-partage-commentaire-share\"><span>Share<\/span><\/span><span>Comments<\/span><\/div>\n<div id=\"adb-article-you-might-also-like\" class=\"perf-cv-auto c-article-you-might-also-like\">\n<h2 class=\"c-article-you-might-also-like__title\">\n        Read more<br \/>\n      <\/h2>\n<div class=\"c-article-you-might-also-like__item\">\n<h3>\n<p>                  Xi Jinping: 2025 was a year of AI and chip breakthroughs amid US-China tech rivalry<\/p>\n<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-you-might-also-like__item\">\n<h3>\n<p>                  Vladimir Putin welcomes China&#8217;s Xi Jinping in Moscow ahead of Victory Day<\/p>\n<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-you-might-also-like__item\">\n<h3>\n<p>                  &#8216;No limits&#8217; partnership continues: Putin to visit Beijing on Xi&#8217;s invitation<\/p>\n<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"perf-cv-auto\">\n<ul id=\"adb-article-tags\" class=\"c-tags-list\">\n<li class=\"c-tags-list__item\">\n<section class=\"tc-cta\" data-twig-component=\"Cta-default\">\n  Donald Trump<br \/>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-tags-list__item\">\n<section class=\"tc-cta\" data-twig-component=\"Cta-default\">\n  Xi Jinping<br \/>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-tags-list__item\">\n<section class=\"tc-cta\" data-twig-component=\"Cta-default\">\n  ancient city<br \/>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"o-article-newsy__aside\">\n<div class=\"c-ad-wrapper o-article-newsy__aside__content-1\" data-ad-name=\"adzone-halfpage\">\n<div class=\"c-ad c-ad-halfpage u-show-for-desktop\">\n<div class=\"c-ad__placeholder\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"c-ad__placeholder__logo\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/logos\/logo-euronews-stacked-outlined-72x72-grey-9.svg\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" alt><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-ad u-show-for-mobile-only\">\n<div class=\"c-ad__placeholder\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"c-ad__placeholder__logo\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/logos\/logo-euronews-stacked-outlined-72x72-grey-9.svg\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" alt><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"adb-article-top-stories\" class=\"perf-cv-auto c-top-stories\">\n<h2 class=\"c-top-stories__title\">Top stories<\/h2>\n<div class=\"c-top-stories__item\">\n<article id=\"abe-2893911-pos2-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--has-video the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2893911\" data-cid=\"9759527\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2893911-label-pos2-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/75\/95\/27\/320x180_cmsv2_8c8612ca-5218-5776-9854-1d3a822f86a5-9759527.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"The special tribunal aims to bring Vladimir Putin to trial.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    &#8216;Point of no return&#8217;: 36 countries join tribunal to prosecute Putin<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-top-stories__item\">\n<article id=\"abe-2893931-pos3-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2893931\" data-cid=\"9759670\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2893931-label-pos3-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/75\/96\/20\/320x180_cmsv2_f38f6894-cac7-52ab-8677-dba3b46b6398-9759620.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"US President Donald Trump boards Air Force One, Friday, May 15, 2026, at Beijing Capital International Airport in Beijing. 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It was a conflict that ended more than two millennia ago.&#8221;The world has come to a new crossroads,&#8221; Chinese President Xi Jinping told Donald Trump as the two began their summit at the Great Hall of the People in the Chinese capital.&#8221;Can China and the United States overcome the so-called &#8216;Thucydides Trap&#8217; and create a new paradigm of major-country relations?&#8221; Xi asked, resulting in a surge in searches for the term and questions over whether he was making a threat against Trump and the US.What is the Thucydides Trap?The concept was coined by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison in the early 2010s, drawing on the ancient Greek historian Thucydides&#8217;s account of the Peloponnesian War \u2014 the nearly three-decade conflict between Athens and Sparta that began in 431 BC.&#8221;It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable,&#8221; Thucydides wrote.Allison applied the pattern to modern history, identifying 16 cases over the past 500 years in which a rising power was seen as threatening an established one, of which 12 ended in war.In this framing, China is cast as the rising Athens to America&#8217;s Sparta. Xi has invoked the concept since at least 2013 to specifically argue that war is not inevitable \u2014 provided both sides exercise restraint.In a 2015 speech in Seattle, he said there was &#8220;no such thing&#8221; as an inevitability of conflict, but warned that &#8220;should major countries time and again make the mistakes of strategic miscalculation, they might create such traps for themselves.&#8221;Xi is not the only one drawn to the concept. During Trump&#8217;s first term, national security adviser HR McMaster and defence secretary James Mattis were both known students of Thucydides.Trump&#8217;s former chief strategist and alt-right pundit Steve Bannon invoked the trap in a 2018 interview to make the case for standing up to Beijing in an apparent opposite of Xi&#8217;s reading.Allison&#8217;s framework has attracted serious academic criticism, ranging from misidentifying historical cases to producing a model that leaves no room for diplomacy or political agency to prevent conflict.One example that was excluded, according to experts, is the peaceful transfer of global leadership from Britain to the US in the 20th century, which suggests war between a rising and ruling power is far from inevitable.Taiwan warningXi&#8217;s historical reference came directly before a warning on Taiwan, telling Trump that the two countries &#8220;could collide or even come into conflict&#8221; if the Taiwan issue is mishandled.Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning later summarised Xi&#8217;s position as &#8220;&#8216;Taiwan independence&#8217; and cross-strait peace are as irreconcilable as fire and water.&#8221;Trump did not address Taiwan during the joint appearance. A White House readout, which did not mention Taiwan, said the two leaders had &#8220;a good meeting&#8221; centred on economic cooperation.Xi adopted a warmer register later in the day, saying China&#8217;s national rejuvenation and the goal of making America great again &#8220;can move forward together completely and can increase prosperity for the entire world.&#8221;Trump responded on Truth Social, reading Xi&#8217;s Thucydides reference as a comment on American decline \u2014 but placing it in the Biden years.&#8221;When President Xi very elegantly referred to the United States as perhaps being a declining nation, he was referring to the tremendous damage we suffered during the four years of Sleepy Joe Biden,&#8221; Trump wrote early on Friday.\u201cTwo years ago, we were, in fact, a nation in decline,\u201d the US president said. \u201cNow, the United States is the hottest nation anywhere in the world, and hopefully our relationship with China will be stronger and better than ever before.\u201d<\/div>\n<p>[analyse_source url=&#8221;https:\/\/www.euronews.com\/2026\/05\/15\/what-is-the-thucydides-trap-that-xi-invoked-in-his-meeting-with-trump&#8221;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/76\/02\/50\/1200x675_cmsv2_25370119-0583-5ac1-a1b6-bcb3d2495909-9760250.jpg&#8221;] The Cube MEP and far-right influencers barred from UK rally: What&#8217;s the reason? 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