{"id":1926480,"date":"2026-05-08T15:30:04","date_gmt":"2026-05-08T12:30:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1926480"},"modified":"2026-05-08T15:30:04","modified_gmt":"2026-05-08T12:30:04","slug":"chance-of-super-el-nino-approaches-100-setting-the-stage-for-the-hottest-year-on-record","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1926480","title":{"rendered":"Chance of \u2018Super\u2019 El Ni\u00f1o Approaches 100%, Setting the Stage for the Hottest Year on Record\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"

[analyse_image type=”featured” src=”https:\/\/gizmodo.com\/app\/uploads\/2026\/05\/extreme-heat-in-arizona-1200×675.jpg”]<\/p>\n

\n
\n

Climate scientists and meteorologists are sounding the alarm as model projections show growing certainty of a \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o. Sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific could surge more than 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit (3 degrees Celsius) above average, challenging records held by the strongest El Ni\u00f1o events in history.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Such an event would significantly increase the global average temperature as an exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean releases massive amounts of heat into the atmosphere. A recent report from Carbon Brief shows that 2026 is already on track to become the second-warmest year on record, and 2027 could be the warmest on record if a super El Ni\u00f1o takes shape.<\/p>\n

\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

This would not only intensify extreme weather across various regions but could also lock Earth\u2019s climate into a warmer regime.<\/p>\n

Why so certain?<\/h2>\n
\"Nino3.4
This graph shows model projections for sea surface temperature anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific, a key area scientists monitor for ENSO conditions. \u00a9 ECMWF<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Experts have been talking about the chance of a super El Ni\u00f1o since March, but modeling certainty is growing as summer approaches. We\u2019re still technically within the spring predictability barrier\u2014a period of increased uncertainty for ENSO model projections\u2014but the latest data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is damning.<\/p>\n

\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The graph above shows ECMWF model projections for sea surface temperature anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific, a key area scientists monitor for ENSO conditions. Each red line represents a different model\u2019s forecast, charting how high the temperature will rise above average over time.<\/p>\n

\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Every single model shows sea surface temperatures rising at least 3.6 degrees F (2 degrees C) above average by November,\u00a0passing the threshold for a \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1o. In the most extreme scenarios, temperature anomalies approach 7.2 degrees F (4 degrees C), which is well past the threshold for a super El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

\u201cConfidence is clearly shifting higher on potentially the biggest El Ni\u00f1o event since the 1870s,\u201d wrote Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric science at the State University of New York at Albany, in a recent X post. El Ni\u00f1o records date back to around 1850.<\/p>\n

\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

How a super El Ni\u00f1o could influence extreme weather<\/h2>\n
\"El
El Ni\u00f1o causes the Pacific jet stream to move south and spread farther east. During winter, this leads to wetter conditions in the Southern U.S. and warmer and drier conditions in the North. \u00a9 NOAA<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

El Ni\u00f1o impacts vary region by region. Warmer ocean waters cause the Pacific jet stream to shift south of its ENSO-neutral position, bringing wetter weather to the southern U.S. and hot, dry weather to the north.<\/p>\n

A super El Ni\u00f1o would have an amplified impact, significantly increasing the risk of drought and wildfire across the already parched Northwest and Great Plains. From coast to coast, southern states would likely see more severe thunderstorms and heavy downpours, raising the risk of flooding. And as average temperatures rise, heat waves will become more frequent and intense across much of the country.<\/p>\n

\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n

Los Angeles and Southern California will need to prepare for extreme flooding and mudslides this winter 2026\/27 as the Super El Ni\u00f1o intensifies across the Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n

Category 5 “atmospheric rivers” will bring enormous volumes (trillions of gallons) of warm precipitation. pic.twitter.com\/Reg0kcjea7<\/p>\n

\u2014 Ryan Maue (@RyanWeather) May 7, 2026<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

On the bright side, El Ni\u00f1o has historically led to a suppressed Atlantic hurricane season, so the Southeast could see fewer tropical cyclones.<\/p>\n

On a global scale, a super El Ni\u00f1o could have a lasting impact on Earth\u2019s climate. James Hansen, a climatologist at Columbia University, recently told Inside Climate News that even a moderately strong El Ni\u00f1o within the next 12 to 18 months could push the average global temperature 3 degrees F (1.7 degrees C) above the preindustrial level.<\/p>\n

\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

That would exceed the 2.7 degrees F (1.5 degrees C) warming threshold that the international community considers a turning point for catastrophic climate impacts, and Hansen doubts that the global temperature would meaningfully cool back down below that threshold after El Ni\u00f1o dissipates.<\/p>\n

Exactly how this event will unfold remains to be seen. Experts will continue to track the development of this El Ni\u00f1o over the coming weeks, and we should have a better idea of its severity by the end of May. But even if the worst-case scenario doesn\u2019t come to pass, this is shaping up to be a highly impactful event.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/article>\n

\n

Climate scientists and meteorologists are sounding the alarm as model projections show growing certainty of a \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o. Sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific could surge more than 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit (3 degrees Celsius) above average, challenging records held by the strongest El Ni\u00f1o events in history.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Such an event would significantly increase the global average temperature as an exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean releases massive amounts of heat into the atmosphere. A recent report from Carbon Brief shows that 2026 is already on track to become the second-warmest year on record, and 2027 could be the warmest on record if a super El Ni\u00f1o takes shape.<\/p>\n

\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

This would not only intensify extreme weather across various regions but could also lock Earth\u2019s climate into a warmer regime.<\/p>\n

Why so certain?<\/h2>\n
\"Nino3.4
This graph shows model projections for sea surface temperature anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific, a key area scientists monitor for ENSO conditions. \u00a9 ECMWF<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Experts have been talking about the chance of a super El Ni\u00f1o since March, but modeling certainty is growing as summer approaches. We\u2019re still technically within the spring predictability barrier\u2014a period of increased uncertainty for ENSO model projections\u2014but the latest data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is damning.<\/p>\n

\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The graph above shows ECMWF model projections for sea surface temperature anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific, a key area scientists monitor for ENSO conditions. Each red line represents a different model\u2019s forecast, charting how high the temperature will rise above average over time.<\/p>\n

\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Every single model shows sea surface temperatures rising at least 3.6 degrees F (2 degrees C) above average by November,\u00a0passing the threshold for a \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1o. In the most extreme scenarios, temperature anomalies approach 7.2 degrees F (4 degrees C), which is well past the threshold for a super El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

\u201cConfidence is clearly shifting higher on potentially the biggest El Ni\u00f1o event since the 1870s,\u201d wrote Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric science at the State University of New York at Albany, in a recent X post. El Ni\u00f1o records date back to around 1850.<\/p>\n

\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

How a super El Ni\u00f1o could influence extreme weather<\/h2>\n
\"El
El Ni\u00f1o causes the Pacific jet stream to move south and spread farther east. During winter, this leads to wetter conditions in the Southern U.S. and warmer and drier conditions in the North. \u00a9 NOAA<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

El Ni\u00f1o impacts vary region by region. Warmer ocean waters cause the Pacific jet stream to shift south of its ENSO-neutral position, bringing wetter weather to the southern U.S. and hot, dry weather to the north.<\/p>\n

A super El Ni\u00f1o would have an amplified impact, significantly increasing the risk of drought and wildfire across the already parched Northwest and Great Plains. From coast to coast, southern states would likely see more severe thunderstorms and heavy downpours, raising the risk of flooding. And as average temperatures rise, heat waves will become more frequent and intense across much of the country.<\/p>\n

\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n

Los Angeles and Southern California will need to prepare for extreme flooding and mudslides this winter 2026\/27 as the Super El Ni\u00f1o intensifies across the Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n

Category 5 “atmospheric rivers” will bring enormous volumes (trillions of gallons) of warm precipitation. pic.twitter.com\/Reg0kcjea7<\/p>\n

\u2014 Ryan Maue (@RyanWeather) May 7, 2026<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

On the bright side, El Ni\u00f1o has historically led to a suppressed Atlantic hurricane season, so the Southeast could see fewer tropical cyclones.<\/p>\n

On a global scale, a super El Ni\u00f1o could have a lasting impact on Earth\u2019s climate. James Hansen, a climatologist at Columbia University, recently told Inside Climate News that even a moderately strong El Ni\u00f1o within the next 12 to 18 months could push the average global temperature 3 degrees F (1.7 degrees C) above the preindustrial level.<\/p>\n

\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

That would exceed the 2.7 degrees F (1.5 degrees C) warming threshold that the international community considers a turning point for catastrophic climate impacts, and Hansen doubts that the global temperature would meaningfully cool back down below that threshold after El Ni\u00f1o dissipates.<\/p>\n

Exactly how this event will unfold remains to be seen. Experts will continue to track the development of this El Ni\u00f1o over the coming weeks, and we should have a better idea of its severity by the end of May. But even if the worst-case scenario doesn\u2019t come to pass, this is shaping up to be a highly impactful event.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

[analyse_source url=”https:\/\/gizmodo.com\/chances-of-super-el-nino-approach-100-setting-the-stage-for-the-hottest-year-on-record-2000756197″]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[analyse_image type=”featured” src=”https:\/\/gizmodo.com\/app\/uploads\/2026\/05\/extreme-heat-in-arizona-1200×675.jpg”] Climate scientists and meteorologists are sounding the alarm as model projections show growing certainty of a \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o. Sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific could surge more than 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit (3 degrees Celsius) above average, challenging records held by the strongest El Ni\u00f1o events in history. Such an […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[226,53],"class_list":["post-1926480","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","tag-crawlmanager","tag-gizmodo-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1926480","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1926480"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1926480\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1926480"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1926480"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1926480"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}