{"id":1918852,"date":"2026-05-05T15:27:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T12:27:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1918852"},"modified":"2026-05-05T15:27:00","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T12:27:00","slug":"end-of-conflict-in-the-middle-east-or-recession-in-europe-imf-warns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1918852","title":{"rendered":"End of conflict in the Middle East or recession in Europe, IMF warns"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/74\/71\/03\/1200x675_cmsv2_c5251925-23ee-53dc-8e6b-005a02eb1890-9747103.jpg&#8221;]<\/p>\n<article id=\"abe-2891430-pos1-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1 the-media-object--has-video\" data-nid=\"2891430\" data-cid=\"9747703\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2891430-label-pos1-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/74\/77\/03\/189x106_cmsv2_8cbb56d8-3297-5041-92a3-1641674e2727-9747703.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Russian servicemen march towards the Red Square prior to the Victory Day military parade rehearsal in Moscow, Monday, May 4, 2026. \" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    No Comment<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Russian soldiers rehearse Victory Day parade amid fears of Ukrainian attacks\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2891436-pos2-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1\" data-nid=\"2891436\" data-cid=\"9747754\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2891436-label-pos2-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/74\/77\/54\/189x106_cmsv2_22a5d764-055e-57cf-871f-65a66684a6cc-9747754.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Turkish Airlines \" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Travel News<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Jet fuel crisis: Airlines cut 13,000 flights and two million seats\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2891046-pos3-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1\" data-nid=\"2891046\" data-cid=\"9745734\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2891046-label-pos3-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/74\/57\/34\/189x106_cmsv2_4f1b0c54-23e5-599e-a2b0-7d748a99862c-9745734.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"An investor walks by an electronic board displaying stock prices at a brokerage house in Beijing, October 2019.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Business<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Split over market supervision threatens EU competitiveness plans\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2891418-pos4-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-1 m-modeDesktop-1 m-modeXL-1\" data-nid=\"2891418\" data-cid=\"9747642\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2891418-label-pos4-c-latest-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/74\/76\/42\/189x106_cmsv2_b9ef9d61-dc1e-5e5f-a6c7-33a55d0e21ce-9747642.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Flamingo missiles are seen at Fire Point's secret factory in Ukraine on Thursday, Aug. 14, 2025. \" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Europe News<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Ukraine strikes Russian army facility 1,000km into Moscow&#8217;s territory\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2891430-pos1-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--has-video\" data-nid=\"2891430\" data-cid=\"9747703\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2891430-label-pos1-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/74\/77\/03\/189x106_cmsv2_8cbb56d8-3297-5041-92a3-1641674e2727-9747703.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Russian servicemen march towards the Red Square prior to the Victory Day military parade rehearsal in Moscow, Monday, May 4, 2026. \" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    No Comment<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Russian soldiers rehearse Victory Day parade amid fears of Ukrainian attacks\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2891436-pos2-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2\" data-nid=\"2891436\" data-cid=\"9747754\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2891436-label-pos2-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/74\/77\/54\/189x106_cmsv2_22a5d764-055e-57cf-871f-65a66684a6cc-9747754.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Turkish Airlines \" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Travel News<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Jet fuel crisis: Airlines cut 13,000 flights and two million seats\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2891046-pos3-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2\" data-nid=\"2891046\" data-cid=\"9745734\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2891046-label-pos3-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/74\/57\/34\/189x106_cmsv2_4f1b0c54-23e5-599e-a2b0-7d748a99862c-9745734.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"An investor walks by an electronic board displaying stock prices at a brokerage house in Beijing, October 2019.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Business<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Split over market supervision threatens EU competitiveness plans\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2891418-pos4-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2\" data-nid=\"2891418\" data-cid=\"9747642\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2891418-label-pos4-c-latest-stories-sidebar\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/74\/76\/42\/189x106_cmsv2_b9ef9d61-dc1e-5e5f-a6c7-33a55d0e21ce-9747642.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Flamingo missiles are seen at Fire Point's secret factory in Ukraine on Thursday, Aug. 14, 2025. \" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n                    Europe News<\/p>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Ukraine strikes Russian army facility 1,000km into Moscow&#8217;s territory\n  <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"helper-site-row o-article-newsy\">\n<div class=\"helper-site-container o-article-newsy__container\">\n<div class=\"o-article-newsy__main\">\n<header class=\"h-grid o-article-newsy__main__header\">\n<nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumbs\" class=\"c-article-breadcrumbs\">\n<div id=\"adb-article-breadcrumb\" class=\"c-article-breadcrumbs__list\">\n<p>                          Europe<\/p>\n<p>                          Europe News<\/p>\n<p>                          Europe Today<\/p><\/div>\n<\/nav>\n<h1 class=\"c-article-redesign-title\">\n                            End of conflict in the Middle East or recession in Europe, IMF warns<\/h1>\n<div class=\"c-article-image-video u-position-relative \">\n<div class=\"js-superdiv u-aspect-ratio-16x9 u-position-relative \" data-sponsored=\"Partner content\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"js-poster-img c-article-media__img\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/74\/71\/03\/1536x864_cmsv2_c5251925-23ee-53dc-8e6b-005a02eb1890-9747103.jpg\" width=\"1536\" height=\"864\" loading=\"eager\" alt=\"IMF representatives speak at speak at a news conference during the World Bank\/IMF Spring Meetings at the IMF headquarters in Washington, April 2025.\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-caption u-position-absolute\"><i id=\"article-caption-content\" class=\"c-article-caption__content\"><span class=\"c-article-caption__text\"><br \/>\n              IMF representatives speak at speak at a news conference during the World Bank\/IMF Spring Meetings at the IMF headquarters in Washington, April 2025.<br \/>\n                    <span class=\"u-color-white\">&#8211;\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"c-article-caption__copyright\">Copyright\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"c-article-caption__credit\">AP \/ Jose Luis Magana<\/span><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-image-copyright c-article-image-copyright--novideo\">\n      Copyright\u00a0AP \/ Jose Luis Magana\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"h-grid o-article-newsy__main__body u-article-content\">\n<div class=\"o-article-newsy__contributors-publication-date\">\n<div class=\"c-article-contributors\">\n  By&amp;nbspMarta Pacheco\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-publication-date\" data-timestamp=\"1777994820\">\n         Published on<br \/>\n            <time datetime=\"2026-05-05 17:27:00 +02:00\">05\/05\/2026 &#8211; 17:27 GMT+2<\/time><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-partage-commentaire u-align-items-center u-display-flex\"><span class=\"c-article-partage-commentaire__links u-align-items-center u-display-flex u-justify-content-center js-c-article-partage-commentaire-share\"><span>Share<\/span><\/span><span>Comments<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-partage-commentaire-popup-overlay js-c-article-partage-commentaire-popup-overlay u-display-none\">\n<div id=\"js-c-article-partage-commentaire-popup\" class=\"c-article-partage-commentaire-popup js-c-article-partage-commentaire-popup\">\n<div class=\"c-article-partage-commentaire-popup__header 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alt=\"vk\" class=\"u-show-for-desktop\" loading=\"lazy\"><span class=\"u-display-flex u-gap-1 u-show-for-mobile-only\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-bluesky.svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" alt=\"bluesky\" loading=\"lazy\"><span>Bluesky<\/span><\/span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-bluesky.svg\" width=\"48\" height=\"48\" alt=\"bluesky\" class=\"u-show-for-desktop\" loading=\"lazy\"><span class=\"u-display-flex u-gap-1 u-show-for-mobile-only\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-threads.svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" alt=\"threads\" loading=\"lazy\"><span>Threads<\/span><\/span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-threads.svg\" width=\"48\" height=\"48\" alt=\"threads\" class=\"u-show-for-desktop\" loading=\"lazy\"><span class=\"u-display-flex u-gap-1 u-show-for-mobile-only\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-whatsapp.svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" alt=\"whatsapp\" loading=\"lazy\"><span>Whatsapp<\/span><\/span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/vector\/social-icons\/article-redesign-whatsapp.svg\" width=\"48\" height=\"48\" alt=\"whatsapp\" class=\"u-show-for-desktop\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"c-article-summary\">\n        The IMF\u2019s outlook for Europe remains closely tied to geopolitical developments. A prolonged crisis risks tipping Europe into recession.<br \/>\n    <\/h2>\n<div class=\"c-article-content js-article-content\">\n<p>Europe\u2019s economic outlook has deteriorated significantly, driven by war-related energy disruptions that are expected to force tighter financial conditions, according to the latest International Monetary Fund report.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"c-ad u-show-for-mobile-only\">\n<div class=\"c-ad__placeholder\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"c-ad__placeholder__logo\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/logos\/logo-euronews-stacked-outlined-72x72-grey-9.svg\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" alt loading=\"lazy\"><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-ad u-show-for-desktop\">\n<div class=\"c-ad__placeholder\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"c-ad__placeholder__logo\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/logos\/logo-euronews-stacked-outlined-72x72-grey-9.svg\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" alt loading=\"lazy\"><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The IMF says the European economy remains resilient but increasingly exposed to external shocks amid an energy crisis linked to the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n<p>It urges swift reforms, including completing the EU single market by better linking power grids, deepening financial integration and boosting productivity.<\/p>\n<p>Oil prices have surged by around 70%, while European gas prices remain roughly 45% above pre-war levels. Although less severe than the 2022 shock, the increases are still expected to weigh heavily on growth, the IMF warns<\/p>\n<p>Europe\u2019s long-term shift towards renewables \u2014 now accounting for over half of electricity generation \u2014 has helped soften the impact of the energy shock, but the IMF says it offers only partial protection.<\/p>\n<p>Growth forecasts have been downgraded, with the euro area now expected to expand by just over 1% in 2026, down from around 1.4% before the Iran war, according to IMF projections. Meanwhile, inflation remains high, reflecting the persistent cost pressures from energy and supply disruptions. <\/p>\n<h2>Fiscal health depends on the conflict&#8217;s duration<\/h2>\n<p>The IMF\u2019s outlook depends heavily on geopolitical developments, as the institution warned warning that a short Middle East conflict could limit the damage, but a prolonged crisis could tip Europe into recession.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOverall economic impact will depend on how the conflict in the Middle East will evolve, particularly on energy supplies and infrastructure,\u201d Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said at a press conference on Monday evening following a meeting of eurozone finance ministers.<\/p>\n<p>He cautioned that the bloc cannot afford to \u201crepeat the mistakes of the past,\u201d stressing that any support measures must be temporary, targeted and not add to aggregate demand.<\/p>\n<p>Europe was already grappling with elevated energy prices before the US-led war against Iran began disrupting global energy markets on 28 February.<\/p>\n<p>European industry was paying two to three times as much for energy as competitors in the United States and China. This persistent gap reflects a structural vulnerability rather than a temporary imbalance, the IMF warned.<\/p>\n<h2>Keep the ETS, revamp the electricity grid, IMF suggests<\/h2>\n<p>Against this backdrop, maintaining momentum on energy reform is crucial. <\/p>\n<p>The IMF report urges the EU to stay committed to its carbon market, the Emissions Trading System (ETS), which had been on the brink of collapse but is viewed by the IMF as supporting continued progress in the adoption of wind and solar power.<\/p>\n<p>It warns that abandoning ETS could jeopardize hard-won progress in decarbonisation.<\/p>\n<p>Beyond this, Europe must complete its internal energy market, the IMF said, with the Commission&#8217;s grids package proposed last December being an \u201cimportant step\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Having a revamped electricity grid and storage are crucial for the EU to succeed in its energy transition and will dominate the bloc\u2019s policymaking \u2014 and probably political feuds \u2014 over the next months, as Commission President Ursula von der Leyen asked the Parliament and the Council, the EU co-legislators, to have a political agreement on the grids\u2019 proposal by the summer.<\/p>\n<h2>European preference could backfire<\/h2>\n<p>The IMF report also points to the Commission\u2019s proposed Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA) saying it contains useful measures, including efforts to diversify supply chains. <\/p>\n<p>However, it also warns that \u201cMade in Europe\u201d procurement rules and foreign investment conditions linked to local value creation could distort markets and weaken comparative advantage.<\/p>\n<p>Protecting strategic industries is a legitimate objective, the IMF says, but it must be guided by disciplined cost\u2013benefit analysis. <\/p>\n<p>Policy instruments vary significantly in terms of efficiency and cost, and interventions should be limited to cases where markets alone cannot adjust effectively.<\/p>\n<p>The report also warns against common policy pitfalls, noting that loosening competition rules, pursuing uncoordinated industrial strategies, or scaling back climate commitments could ultimately weaken, rather than strengthen, Europe\u2019s position. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>                                  Go to accessibility shortcuts<\/p>\n<div class=\"c-article-partage-commentaire u-align-items-center u-display-flex\"><span class=\"c-article-partage-commentaire__links u-align-items-center u-display-flex u-justify-content-center js-c-article-partage-commentaire-share\"><span>Share<\/span><\/span><span>Comments<\/span><\/div>\n<div id=\"adb-article-you-might-also-like\" class=\"perf-cv-auto c-article-you-might-also-like\">\n<h2 class=\"c-article-you-might-also-like__title\">\n        Read more<br \/>\n      <\/h2>\n<div class=\"c-article-you-might-also-like__item\">\n<h3>\n<p>                  IMF drops Eurozone&#8217;s economic growth forecast to 1.1% from 1.4% amid Iran war<\/p>\n<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-you-might-also-like__item\">\n<h3>\n<p>                  &#8216;No return to normal&#8217;: IMF warns of lasting economic damage from Iran war<\/p>\n<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-you-might-also-like__item\">\n<h3>\n<p>                  IMF chief: European lifestyle is at risk if productivity isn\u2019t boosted<\/p>\n<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"perf-cv-auto\">\n<ul id=\"adb-article-tags\" class=\"c-tags-list\">\n<li class=\"c-tags-list__item\">\n<section class=\"tc-cta\" data-twig-component=\"Cta-default\">\n  Europe&#8217;s energy crisis<br \/>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-tags-list__item\">\n<section class=\"tc-cta\" data-twig-component=\"Cta-default\">\n  European Union<br \/>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-tags-list__item\">\n<section class=\"tc-cta\" data-twig-component=\"Cta-default\">\n  IMF<br \/>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-tags-list__item\">\n<section class=\"tc-cta\" data-twig-component=\"Cta-default\">\n  Economy<br \/>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-tags-list__item\">\n<section class=\"tc-cta\" data-twig-component=\"Cta-default\">\n  Inflation<br \/>\n<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"o-article-newsy__aside\">\n<div class=\"c-ad-wrapper o-article-newsy__aside__content-1\" data-ad-name=\"adzone-halfpage\">\n<div class=\"c-ad c-ad-halfpage u-show-for-desktop\">\n<div class=\"c-ad__placeholder\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"c-ad__placeholder__logo\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/logos\/logo-euronews-stacked-outlined-72x72-grey-9.svg\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" alt><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-ad u-show-for-mobile-only\">\n<div class=\"c-ad__placeholder\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"c-ad__placeholder__logo\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/logos\/logo-euronews-stacked-outlined-72x72-grey-9.svg\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" alt><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"adb-article-top-stories\" class=\"perf-cv-auto c-top-stories\">\n<h2 class=\"c-top-stories__title\">Top stories<\/h2>\n<div class=\"c-top-stories__item\">\n<article id=\"abe-2891397-pos2-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2891397\" data-cid=\"9747488\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2891397-label-pos2-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/74\/74\/88\/320x180_cmsv2_54679cab-d614-5c33-a5db-2bdd297d909b-9747488.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"A patrol boat moves through the water as cargo ships sit at anchor in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, 2 May, 2026\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    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u-show-for-mobile-only\">\n<div class=\"c-ad__placeholder\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"c-ad__placeholder__logo\" src=\"https:\/\/static.euronews.com\/website\/images\/logos\/logo-euronews-stacked-outlined-72x72-grey-9.svg\" width=\"72\" height=\"72\" alt><span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2891397-pos2-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2891397\" data-cid=\"9747488\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2891397-label-pos2-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/74\/74\/88\/320x180_cmsv2_54679cab-d614-5c33-a5db-2bdd297d909b-9747488.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"A patrol boat moves through the water as cargo ships sit at anchor in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, 2 May, 2026\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    US threatens &#8216;devastating&#8217; response to any Iranian attacks on shipping<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2891378-pos3-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2891378\" data-cid=\"9747350\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2891378-label-pos3-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/74\/73\/50\/320x180_cmsv2_f6441b3c-da22-53db-bb63-bfc96170708d-9747350.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Romanian lawmakers vote in parliament in Bucharest, 5 May, 2026\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Romania&#8217;s pro-EU coalition collapses after PM fails no-confidence vote<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2891418-pos4-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2891418\" data-cid=\"9747642\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2891418-label-pos4-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/74\/76\/42\/320x180_cmsv2_b9ef9d61-dc1e-5e5f-a6c7-33a55d0e21ce-9747642.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Flamingo missiles are seen at Fire Point's secret factory in Ukraine on Thursday, Aug. 14, 2025. \" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Ukraine strikes Russian army facility 1,000km into Moscow&#8217;s territory<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2891046-pos5-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2891046\" data-cid=\"9745734\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2891046-label-pos5-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/74\/57\/34\/320x180_cmsv2_4f1b0c54-23e5-599e-a2b0-7d748a99862c-9745734.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"An investor walks by an electronic board displaying stock prices at a brokerage house in Beijing, October 2019.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Split over market supervision threatens EU competitiveness plans<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2891303-pos6-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-2 m-modeDesktop-2 m-modeXL-2 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2891303\" data-cid=\"9747207\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<figure id=\"abe-2891303-label-pos6-top-stories\" class=\"the-media-object__figure\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"the-media-object__image\" src=\"https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/74\/69\/54\/320x180_cmsv2_6f553d85-de40-5469-a938-b585c9de27ae-9746954.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Atletico Madrid coach Diego Simeone (left) greets Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta after the first leg of the Champions League semi-final.\" height=\"9\" width=\"16\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Simeone and Arteta face off in quest for Champions League glory<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2891274-pos1-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2891274\" data-cid=\"9746896\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Iran threatens European military bases amid Hormuz escalation<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2891296-pos2-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--has-video the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2891296\" data-cid=\"9746934\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    &#8216;A deal is a deal&#8217;: Von der Leyen hits back at Trump&#8217;s tariff threat<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2891112-pos3-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2891112\" data-cid=\"9746053\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Dubai residents take shelter as UAE intercepts Iranian strike<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2891207-pos4-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2891207\" data-cid=\"9746546\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    This is what we know about the man arrested for killing two in Leipzig<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article id=\"abe-2891189-pos5-mostViewed\" class=\"the-media-object m-modeMobile-3 m-modeDesktop-3 m-modeXL-3 the-media-object--no-label\" data-nid=\"2891189\" data-cid=\"9746431\" data-part-label=\"Partner content\">\n<div class=\"the-media-object__content\">\n<h3 class=\"the-media-object__title  \">\n<p>    Russia declares Victory Day ceasefire while Zelenskyy tables own truce<br \/>\n  <\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<div class=\"articleBody\" data-key=\"articleBody\">Europe\u2019s economic outlook has deteriorated significantly, driven by war-related energy disruptions that are expected to force tighter financial conditions, according to the latest International Monetary Fund report.The IMF says the European economy remains resilient but increasingly exposed to external shocks amid an energy crisis linked to the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.It urges swift reforms, including completing the EU single market by better linking power grids, deepening financial integration and boosting productivity.Oil prices have surged by around 70%, while European gas prices remain roughly 45% above pre-war levels. Although less severe than the 2022 shock, the increases are still expected to weigh heavily on growth, the IMF warnsEurope\u2019s long-term shift towards renewables \u2014 now accounting for over half of electricity generation \u2014 has helped soften the impact of the energy shock, but the IMF says it offers only partial protection.Growth forecasts have been downgraded, with the euro area now expected to expand by just over 1% in 2026, down from around 1.4% before the Iran war, according to IMF projections. Meanwhile, inflation remains high, reflecting the persistent cost pressures from energy and supply disruptions.Fiscal health depends on the conflict&#8217;s durationThe IMF\u2019s outlook depends heavily on geopolitical developments, as the institution warned warning that a short Middle East conflict could limit the damage, but a prolonged crisis could tip Europe into recession.\u201cOverall economic impact will depend on how the conflict in the Middle East will evolve, particularly on energy supplies and infrastructure,\u201d Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said at a press conference on Monday evening following a meeting of eurozone finance ministers.He cautioned that the bloc cannot afford to \u201crepeat the mistakes of the past,\u201d stressing that any support measures must be temporary, targeted and not add to aggregate demand.Europe was already grappling with elevated energy prices before the US-led war against Iran began disrupting global energy markets on 28 February.European industry was paying two to three times as much for energy as competitors in the United States and China. This persistent gap reflects a structural vulnerability rather than a temporary imbalance, the IMF warned.Keep the ETS, revamp the electricity grid, IMF suggestsAgainst this backdrop, maintaining momentum on energy reform is crucial.The IMF report urges the EU to stay committed to its carbon market, the Emissions Trading System (ETS), which had been on the brink of collapse but is viewed by the IMF as supporting continued progress in the adoption of wind and solar power.It warns that abandoning ETS could jeopardize hard-won progress in decarbonisation.Beyond this, Europe must complete its internal energy market, the IMF said, with the Commission&#8217;s grids package proposed last December being an \u201cimportant step\u201d.Having a revamped electricity grid and storage are crucial for the EU to succeed in its energy transition and will dominate the bloc\u2019s policymaking \u2014 and probably political feuds \u2014 over the next months, as Commission President Ursula von der Leyen asked the Parliament and the Council, the EU co-legislators, to have a political agreement on the grids\u2019 proposal by the summer.European preference could backfireThe IMF report also points to the Commission\u2019s proposed Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA) saying it contains useful measures, including efforts to diversify supply chains.However, it also warns that \u201cMade in Europe\u201d procurement rules and foreign investment conditions linked to local value creation could distort markets and weaken comparative advantage.Protecting strategic industries is a legitimate objective, the IMF says, but it must be guided by disciplined cost\u2013benefit analysis.Policy instruments vary significantly in terms of efficiency and cost, and interventions should be limited to cases where markets alone cannot adjust effectively.The report also warns against common policy pitfalls, noting that loosening competition rules, pursuing uncoordinated industrial strategies, or scaling back climate commitments could ultimately weaken, rather than strengthen, Europe\u2019s position.<\/div>\n<p>[analyse_source url=&#8221;https:\/\/www.euronews.com\/my-europe\/2026\/05\/05\/end-of-conflict-in-the-middle-east-or-recession-in-europe-imf-warns&#8221;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/images.euronews.com\/articles\/stories\/09\/74\/71\/03\/1200x675_cmsv2_c5251925-23ee-53dc-8e6b-005a02eb1890-9747103.jpg&#8221;] No Comment Russian soldiers rehearse Victory Day parade amid fears of Ukrainian attacks Travel News Jet fuel crisis: Airlines cut 13,000 flights and two million seats Business Split over market supervision threatens EU competitiveness plans Europe News Ukraine strikes Russian army facility 1,000km into Moscow&#8217;s territory No Comment Russian soldiers rehearse Victory [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[90],"tags":[226,36],"class_list":["post-1918852","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-international","tag-crawlmanager","tag-euronews-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1918852","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1918852"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1918852\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1918852"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1918852"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1918852"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}