{"id":1917913,"date":"2026-05-04T05:53:15","date_gmt":"2026-05-04T02:53:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1917913"},"modified":"2026-05-04T05:53:15","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T02:53:15","slug":"these-7-things-can-stop-jonas-vingegaard-winning-the-giro-ditalia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1917913","title":{"rendered":"These 7 Things Can Stop Jonas Vingegaard Winning the Giro d\u2019Italia"},"content":{"rendered":"

[analyse_image type=”featured” src=”https:\/\/velo-cdn.outsideonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/giro-outsider.jpg”]<\/p>\n

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Jim Cotton<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Updated May 4, 2026 05:15PM<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Jonas Vingegaard is the 10-star favorite for the Giro d\u2019Italia. We get it.<\/p>\n

The three-time grand tour winner is head, shoulders, and heart rate strap above a GC field that\u2019s been decapitated by a late wave of sickness and injury.<\/p>\n

But the Giro ain\u2019t so simple. The Dane\u2019s Giro d\u2019Italia debut won\u2019t be a cakewalk.<\/p>\n

The Italian tour races to a different beat from the Tour de France and Vuelta a Espa\u00f1a.<\/p>\n

As Isaac del Toro discovered last year, it\u2019s the grand tour of upsets and plot twists. The 2025 pink jersey Simon Yates learned that the hard way, seven years earlier.<\/p>\n

And Vingegaard has got more than three weeks in May to worry about. A date with Tadej Poga\u010dar in the second installment of his grand tour double looms a few months later at the Tour de France.<\/p>\n

The shadow of the Tour will influence every watt Vingegaard makes and every decision Visma-Lease a Bike takes.<\/p>\n

Vingegaard has rightfully earned the status of corsa rosa super-favorite. The absense from the race of Poga\u010dar, Primo\u017e Rogli\u010d, and Remco Evenepoel makes that status absolute and undisputed.<\/p>\n

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This GC power vacuum also makes the Giro d\u2019Italia a race of opportunity.<\/p>\n

Prestigious podium positions \u2013 or even a win \u2013 are available to riders way down the hierarchy.<\/p>\n

Italian hope Giulio Pellizzari, people\u2019s favorite Egan Bernal, and the stealthy Austrian Felix Gall could all ride into pink. Even Pogi\u2019s superdomestique Adam Yates has a chance in a grand tour that will orbit around just one rider.<\/p>\n

Visma-Lease a Bike shouldn\u2019t be photoshopping Vingegaard into a maglia rosa just yet. Here are 3 factors and 4 riders who could deliver the Giro\u2019s latest plot twist.<\/p>\n

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The oddities of the Giro and the shadow of the Tour<\/h2>\n

1. The Giro d\u2019Italia is not a normal grand tour<\/h3>\n
\"Vingegaard
Vingegaard is one of the best grand tour racers of the era. But the Giro is a different beast to the Tour and Vuelta.<\/span> (Photo: Gruber Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The Giro is a wild and weird beast compared to the Tour de France and Vuelta a Espa\u00f1a.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s lost some of its mythical personality in the age of VeloViewer, carbs, and altitude camps, but it\u2019s still plagued by terrible weather, terrible roads, and tactical anomalies.<\/p>\n

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GC teams are typically weaker at the Giro than they are at the Tour [see point 3, ed<\/em>], meaning breakaways have a better chance at making it stick. In a race that heralds unsung talents, teams chasing pink let breaks go at their own risk.<\/p>\n

In short, the Giro is a melting pot of oddities that can cook up madness. The race\u2019s recent history of GC upsets proves the race isn\u2019t over until you taste prosecco in Rome.<\/p>\n

Many riders have been \u201cGiroed,\u201d from Del Toro and Yates to Kruijswijk and Chaves.<\/p>\n

As a Giro rookie, Vingegaard is yet to experience the corsa rosa\u2019s cruel charms. His packed palmar\u00e8s isn\u2019t enough to ensure pink.<\/p>\n

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2. Vingegaard races in the shadow of the Tour de France<\/h3>\n
\"Pogacar
Will Vingegaard ride defensive at the Giro to save his legs for the Tour?<\/span> (Photo: Gruber Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Vingegaard\u2019s Giro d\u2019Italia is framed in the context of the Tour de France. The 29-year-old\u2019s grand tour double and the short turnaround between the Giro and Tour will influence V-LAB\u2019s strategy from Bulgaria to Rome.<\/p>\n

When Poga\u010dar made history with his Giro-Tour double in 2024, he obliterated the Italian tour from day 2 to day 21. He\u2019s Poga\u010dar \u2013 he can get away with it.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t expect Vingegaard to follow the Pogi playbook.<\/p>\n

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Vingegaard is more likely to pile on an advantage early \u2013 maybe in the first summit finish on Blockhaus (stage 7) and the race\u2019s only time trial (stage 10) \u2013 before he plays defense in the final week.<\/p>\n

Riding the third week on \u201ceco mode\u201d would kickstart recovery for the Tour.<\/p>\n

But being conservative is fraught with risk.<\/p>\n

How many minutes of a GC advantage might Vingegaard consider safe? What breaks does Visma let go?<\/p>\n

In the Giro, no GC lead is \u201csafe.\u201d<\/p>\n

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3. Does Visma have the depth?<\/h3>\n
\"Visma-Lease
Visma-Lease a Bike will have one of the strongest teams in the race, but it won\u2019t have the depth Vingegaard benefits from at the Tour.<\/span> (Photo: Gruber Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The impact of Vingegaard\u2019s Giro-Tour double also ripples through to the team selected to support him.<\/p>\n

Yes, Sepp Kuss, Wilco Kelderman, and Victor Campenaerts will make V-LAB one of the strongest teams of the Giro. But this is no Tour de France selection.<\/p>\n

Wout van Aert, Matteo Jorgenson, and Christophe Laporte are saving their legs for later.<\/p>\n

Rival super teams Red Bull and UAE are taking teams as strong, if not stronger, than Visma\u2019s eight bees.<\/p>\n

How much work might Vingegaard have to do on his own?<\/p>\n

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The outsiders<\/h2>\n

4. The home stud: Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), 22<\/h3>\n
Pellizzari is in hot form and carries his nation\u2019s hopes.<\/span> (Photo: MARCO BERTORELLO \/ AFP via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Giulio Pellizzari will be in the hearts of every nonna<\/em> and on the banners of every roadside tifosi<\/em> this month. Italy\u2019s cycling pride sits on his scrawny shoulders. The nation hasn\u2019t won its home tour since Vincenzo Nibali brought home pink in 2016.<\/p>\n

Pellizzari is already being hailed in Italian media as \u201cthe next Nibali.\u201d He\u2019s got the potential to match Messina\u2019s Shark.<\/p>\n

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And Red Bull\u2019s rising 22-year-old could follow the retired legend into the Giro d\u2019Italia\u2019s roll of honor.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s got Aleksander Vlasov and former Giro winner Jai Hindley for henchmen and the momentum of third at Tirreno-Adriatico and victory at the<\/em> Giro tune-up race, Tour of the Alps.<\/p>\n

And while Pellizzari has never hit a grand tour podium in his short career, sixth-place finishes at both the Giro and Vuelta shows the kid don\u2019t miss.<\/p>\n

Pellizzari is one of the most exciting new talents in the WorldTour, and he\u2019s learning fast.<\/p>\n

Vingegaard will rate him Rival No.1.<\/p>\n

Pellizzari\u2019s recent highlights:<\/strong><\/p>\n

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  • 2026 Tour of the Alps: GC win, 2 x stage wins<\/li>\n
  • 2026 Tirreno Adriatico: 3rd on GC<\/li>\n
  • 2026 Volta Valenciana: 3rd on GC<\/li>\n
  • 2025 Vuelta a Espa\u00f1a: 6th, 1 x stage win<\/li>\n
  • 2025 Giro d\u2019Italia: 6th<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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    5. A comeback king? Egan Bernal (Netcompany Ineos), 29<\/h3>\n
    Bernal is in his best form for years and an outside favorite for his second Giro victory after first winning in 2021.<\/span> (Photo: Tim de Waele\/Getty Images)\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

    Is Egan Bernal finally \u201cback\u201d after his devastating 2022 crash?<\/p>\n

    Sort of.<\/p>\n

    \u201cBernalito\u201d is still not the rider who won two grand tours in three years at the turn of this decade, but he\u2019s the best he\u2019s been in years \u2013 and one of the best of the Giro\u2019s off-kilter GC field.<\/p>\n

    Bernal hinted last year at the Giro and Vuelta that he\u2019s still got it.<\/p>\n

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    7th at the Giro and a stage win at the Vuelta showed hints of a revival, and Bernal didn\u2019t slow down in the off-season, either. 2nd behind Pellizzari at Tour of the Alps and 5th at Li\u00e8ge shows he\u2019s within range of his second Giro victory, five years after the first.<\/p>\n

    Bernal and his rebranded team Netcompany-Ineos know how to win grand tours.<\/p>\n

    And with Thymen Arensman at his flanks, the 2026 Giro is Bernal\u2019s best chance since he broke himself on the back of a bus.<\/p>\n

    Bernal\u2019s recent highlights:<\/strong><\/p>\n

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    • 2026 Li\u00e8ge-Bastogne-Li\u00e8ge: 5th<\/li>\n
    • 2026 Tour of the Alps: 2nd<\/li>\n
    • 2025 Vuelta a Espa\u00f1a: 17th on GC, 1 x stage win<\/li>\n
    • 2025 Giro d\u2019Italia: 7th on GC<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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      6. The wiley veteran: Adam Yates (UAE Emirates-XRG), 33<\/h3>\n
      \"Adam
      Adam Yates gets a rare opportunity to race a grand tour with his own ambition.<\/span> (Photo: Dario Belingheri\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

      Shock! UAE Emirates-XRG isn\u2019t top favorite for a grand tour, for once.<\/p>\n

      Isaac del Toro is injured. Jo\u00e3o Almeida is out with sickness.<\/p>\n

      But Poga\u010dar\u2019s superteam hasn\u2019t been decisively torpedoed. Mountain superdomestique Adam Yates and climbing king Jay Vine mean UAE will remain a thorn in Visma-Lease a Bike\u2019s side at the Giro d\u2019Italia.<\/p>\n

      Yates will likely lead the team\u2019s pink ambition.<\/p>\n

      Sure, Yates hasn\u2019t raced a grand tour for himself since he left Ineos in 2022 and was off the bubble last year.<\/p>\n

      But the veteran Brit knows his way around a grand tour.<\/p>\n

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      Yates hit the top-6 at the Tour de France two years in a row, even while pulling for Poga\u010dar. He\u2019s raced 16 grand tours, finished them all, and hit the top-12 a total of 9 times.<\/p>\n

      UAE Emirates is desperate to win a grand tour in the absence of Poga\u010dar. Team brass would relish the irony if it\u2019s the Slovenian\u2019s long-time domesque who does it.<\/p>\n

      Yates\u2019 recent highlights:<\/strong><\/p>\n

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      • 2026 O Gran Camino \u2013 GC win, 1 x stage win<\/li>\n
      • 2026 Tour of Oman \u2013 3rd on GC<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        7. The guy we forget: Felix Gall (Decathlon CMA-CGM), 28<\/h3>\n
        Gall \u2013 he\u2019s the guy who sneaks to the top of GC without you even realizing. <\/span> (Photo: Tim de Waele\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

        Felix Gall, remember him? The Austrian climber is the guy who nearly always sneaks into the top end of GC without you even noticing.<\/p>\n

        The anonymous Austrian leads the broad pack of riders with a very distant chance at winning the Giro.<\/p>\n

        Riders like him, Derek Gee-West, Arensman, and Hindley are outside bets whose hopes might be pinned on a touch of Giro madness or the misfortune of others.<\/p>\n

        Gall is the best of this chasing bunch.<\/p>\n

        Team Decathlon\u2019s \u201cMr. Consistent\u201d has the capacity to hang with Vingegaard in the Alps, and he should have USA\u2019s pocket climber Matthew Riccitello for company.<\/p>\n

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        The paucity of time trial KMs at this Giro d\u2019Italia \u2013 just 42 \u2013 will also give Gall hope. His podium hopes rest on him limiting his losses against the clock in this stage 10 test.<\/p>\n

        Gall\u2019s recent highlights<\/strong><\/p>\n

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        • 2026 Volta a Catalunya: 6th on GC<\/li>\n
        • 2026 UAE Tour: 5th on GC<\/li>\n
        • 2025 Vuelta a Espa\u00f1a: 8th on GC<\/li>\n
        • 2025 Tour de France: 5th on GC<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
          \n
          \n
          Jim Cotton<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
          Updated May 4, 2026 05:15PM<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

          [analyse_source url=”https:\/\/velo.outsideonline.com\/road\/road-racing\/giro-ditalia\/7-things-vingegaard-giro-ditalia\/”]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          [analyse_image type=”featured” src=”https:\/\/velo-cdn.outsideonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/giro-outsider.jpg”] Jim Cotton Updated May 4, 2026 05:15PM Jonas Vingegaard is the 10-star favorite for the Giro d\u2019Italia. We get it. The three-time grand tour winner is head, shoulders, and heart rate strap above a GC field that\u2019s been decapitated by a late wave of sickness and injury. But the Giro ain\u2019t so […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[226,71],"class_list":["post-1917913","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","tag-crawlmanager","tag-velo-outsideonline-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1917913","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1917913"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1917913\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1917913"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1917913"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1917913"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}