{"id":1909058,"date":"2026-04-29T14:45:19","date_gmt":"2026-04-29T11:45:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1909058"},"modified":"2026-04-29T14:45:19","modified_gmt":"2026-04-29T11:45:19","slug":"the-bounce-the-nbas-3-2-1-lottery-plan-doesnt-add-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1909058","title":{"rendered":"The Bounce: The NBA\u2019s 3-2-1 lottery plan doesn\u2019t add up"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The Bounce Newslette<\/b>r<\/strong>\u00a0\":basketball:\"<\/span>\u00a0| This is The Athletic\u2019s<\/em> daily NBA newsletter.\u00a0Sign up here<\/a>\u00a0to receive The Bounce directly in your inbox.
\nOn this date in 1970, Jerry West hit a famous 60-foot buzzer-beater<\/a> in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. After Dave DeBusschere put the Knicks up by two, West was forced to heave it from beyond half court. It did not result in a win because the NBA didn\u2019t have the 3-point shot yet, and the Lakers lost in overtime. The Knicks won the title in seven games.<\/p>\n

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Lotto confusion<\/h3>\n

NBA\u2019s new proposal is overly complicated<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cIf it ain\u2019t broke, don\u2019t break it.\u201d \u2014 Charles Oakley.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s one of my favorite quotes in history. And it\u2019s how I feel about the NBA\u2019s latest lottery and anti-tanking reform proposal that surfaced on Tuesday<\/a>. When some of the league\u2019s proposed ideas leaked a month ago<\/a>, the one that made the most sense was flattening the odds for the teams with the 10 worst records (each getting an 8 percent chance at the No. 1 pick). Then teams 11-18 (the four losers of the Play-In Tournament included) would all receive 2.5 percent odds. We graded it a 9\/10.<\/p>\n

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So what did the NBA apparently choose? Turning the entire process into one big tax law that is unnecessarily complicated.<\/strong> The league wants to introduce the \u201c3-2-1\u201d system \u2014 because everything needs a clever little name. Instead of just making the simple and effective fix, the NBA would dole out different odds throughout the bottom 16 teams, expanding the lottery from 14. And the bottom three teams wouldn\u2019t get the best odds.<\/p>\n

I made a little chart to explain some of it. But I can\u2019t explain all of it on one chart, because there\u2019s so much more to it. Teams would get an 8.1, 5.4 or 2.7 percent chance of winning the draft lottery. They would get one, two or three lottery balls based on their finish.<\/p>\n

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You got all that? It\u2019s not over! There are also extra proposed rules<\/a>designed to reduce tanking. My assessment is in bold.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n