{"id":1900783,"date":"2026-04-24T16:42:37","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T13:42:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1900783"},"modified":"2026-04-24T16:42:37","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T13:42:37","slug":"the-nba-playoffs-have-been-historically-chaotic-we-break-down-each-series","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1900783","title":{"rendered":"The NBA playoffs have been historically chaotic. We break down each series"},"content":{"rendered":"
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TORONTO \u2014 If the NBA\u2019s first-round series seem chaotic to you, that\u2019s because they are.<\/p>\n

Before the three games on Thursday, the NBA posted to social media<\/a> the following snippet: Five first-round series were tied, 1-1, tied for the most series where both teams won one of two games dating back to 1984.<\/p>\n

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And then, on Thursday night, the underdogs went and took Game 3. Toronto clobbered Cleveland (though that series is 2-1, Cavs, who are favored); Atlanta beat the Knicks again on another big CJ McCollum bucket and huge defensive stop at the end and now lead that series as the No. 6 seed; No. 6 Timberwolves took Game 3 from No. 3 Denver out West for a 2-1 series advantage.<\/p>\n

The uncertainty doesn\u2019t stop there. Two more series will continue Friday that are currently tied 1-1 and in one of them, No. 2 San Antonio against No. 7 Portland, the best player in that series, one of the best in the NBA, Victor Wembanyama, is in concussion protocol.<\/p>\n

In one of the two series remaining in which one team holds a 2-0 lead, Oklahoma City is going to be without All-NBA performer Jalen Williams because of another hamstring injury. And the Lakers, who are the higher-seeded team than Houston but were huge underdogs coming in because of injuries to their top two scorers, could get Austin Reaves back for Game 3 tonight. Kevin Durant is on the injury report again after missing Game 1.<\/p>\n

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There is simply too much basketball to come to make any grand pronouncements about what will be the end result of the first round.<\/p>\n

But there is real volatility coursing through all eight of the 2026 first-round series. Believe what your eyes and your heart rates tell you.<\/p>\n

Friday\u2019s Games<\/h2>\n

No. 2 Boston at. No. 7 Philadelphia<\/h3>\n

Series<\/strong>: 1-1<\/p>\n

Favored at the start<\/strong>: Celtics (-600 odds to win, according to BetMGM)<\/p>\n

Volatility<\/strong>: The Sixers evened the series in a stunner of a Game 2 behind 30 points from rookie VJ Edgecombe<\/a>. Joel Embiid has yet to play (appendectomy) and was listed as \u201cdoubtful\u201d for Game 3<\/a> as of 10 a.m. Friday, but Philadelphia is at home and can test Boston\u2019s role players, who struggled mightily in Game 2. Role players allegedly play worse on the road. Tyrese Maxey is cooking, too<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

What You Should Read Next<\/div>\n
\n \"Joe<\/p>\n
\n
\n Joe Mazzulla looks beyond Celtics\u2019 shooting discrepancy to clean slate for Game 3\n <\/div>\n
\n Boston Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla is trying a different approach after losing Game 2 to the Sixers.\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

No. 4 Lakers at. No. 5 Houston<\/h3>\n

Series<\/strong>: 2-0, L.A.<\/p>\n

Favored at the start<\/strong>: Rockets (-600)<\/p>\n

Volatility<\/strong>: As mentioned, Durant is questionable (this time it\u2019s an ankle sprain; he missed Game 1 with a knee bruise) while Reaves (oblique muscle) could return. But the real absurdity here is that the Lakers won the first two games without Reaves and Luka Don\u010di\u0107 (hamstring). LeBron James, \u2014 you may have heard of him \u2014 is 41 years old and playing like\u2026 well \u2026he\u2019s playing really good (can\u2019t quite say he\u2019s playing like he\u2019s 10 years younger because 31-year-old LeBron wore a red cape and spearheaded the greatest NBA Finals comeback in history). Luke Kennard has been the Lakers\u2019 second-best player in the series; he has never been more than a role player in the NBA.<\/p>\n

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Advertisement<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The Rockets, meanwhile, had Durant for Game 2 and Alperen \u015eeng\u00fcn is an All-Star; yet they were outclassed. If Reaves returns and Durant is out of Game 3, Houston\u2019s already long odds to come back and win this series get even longer.<\/p>\n

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What You Should Read Next<\/div>\n
\n \"Alperen<\/p>\n
\n
\n Alperen \u015eeng\u00fcn, unlucky meme king of Rockets-Lakers series, must change narrative fast\n <\/div>\n
\n Struggling badly in the playoffs, \u015eeng\u00fcn is about to play the two most important games of his career.\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

No. 2 San Antonio at No. 7 Portland<\/h3>\n

Series<\/strong>: 1-1<\/p>\n

Favored at the start<\/strong>: Spurs (-550)<\/p>\n

Volatility<\/strong>: It\u2019s not just that Wembanyama left Game 2 with a concussion and as of 10 a.m. Friday was still in the protocol. It\u2019s that the Spurs built a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter without him and choked it away. San Antonio built a deep, competent, gritty team around Wemby that should have more than enough talent to manage this series while he recovers, which makes the Blazers\u2019 fourth-quarter comeback in Game 2 all the more impressive. Scoot Henderson\u2019s true coming-out party continues \u2013 he scored 31 in Game 2 and has much more room to operate if Wemby isn\u2019t terrorizing him and everyone else in the paint. The Spurs\u2019 excellent guard combo of De\u2019Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle shot a combined 13-of-36 in Game 2, which can\u2019t happen if Victor misses again.<\/p>\n

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What You Should Read Next<\/div>\n
\n \"Victor<\/p>\n
\n
\n Victor Wembanyama \u2018progressing\u2019 through concussion protocol, Game 3 status uncertain\n <\/div>\n
\n A concussion diagnosis initiates a 48-hour league-mandated recovery period before he can go through a return-to-play evaluation.\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

Saturday\u2019s Games<\/h2>\n

No. 1 Detroit at No. 8 Orlando<\/h3>\n

Series<\/strong>: 1-1<\/p>\n

Favored at the start<\/strong>: Pistons (-200)<\/p>\n

Volatility<\/strong>: The oddsmakers pointed to this series at the start as the hardest to pick, as Detroit had the smallest odds of any favorite. And then in Game 1 we saw why. Orlando earned its place as an eighth seed by being both injured and maddeningly inconsistent all season. But the Magic have a ton of talent, especially in their starting five, and that group didn\u2019t flinch while applying pressure on every Piston not named Cade Cunningham in a Game 1 triumph. The Pistons went on a bonkers run in the third quarter of Game 2 to even the series.<\/p>\n

We should try not to be a prisoner of the moment on this one and declare the Pistons in trouble, yet, but if Orlando plays to its potential, then we have a matchup of two big, physical, bruising teams that don\u2019t shoot it well from the outside. In that scenario, the Pistons would be in danger of becoming the 2023 Milwaukee Bucks, who lost to the No. 8 seed Miami Heat in the first round (the Heat went all the way to the finals that year, coming out of the Play-In Tournament. Can the other Florida team do the same? LOL, so much for not overreacting).<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

What You Should Read Next<\/div>\n
\n \"Magic<\/p>\n
\n
\n Magic pledge to learn from Pistons\u2019 decisive 30-3 run: \u2018I\u2019m not worried at all\u2019\n <\/div>\n
\n Several of Orlando’s players said they knew how they allowed Detroit to take control of Game 2.\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

No. 1 Oklahoma City at. No. 8 Phoenix<\/h3>\n

Series<\/strong>: 2-0, Thunder<\/p>\n

Favored at the start<\/strong>: Thunder (-2500)<\/p>\n

Volatility<\/strong>: Ehhhh\u2026 there still isn\u2019t much of it in this series. Yes, Williams is out again, injuring the other hamstring. He missed most of the season recovering from a series of hamstring injuries, and the defending champs had no trouble reclaiming the top overall record in the NBA. But Dillon Brooks is coming off a 30-point Game 2, and Devin Booker, the Suns\u2019 top player, is looking for a breakout game in this series. Why not Saturday?<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

What You Should Read Next<\/div>\n
\n \"Jalen<\/p>\n
\n
\n Jalen Williams was a 1st-half force, and now Thunder wait for positive injury news\n <\/div>\n
\n Williams was turning the corner from injury. OKC now is forced to hold its breath and wait on Williams’ diagnosis after Game 2.\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

No. 3 New York at No. 6 Atlanta<\/h3>\n

Series<\/strong>: 2-1, Hawks<\/p>\n

Favored at the star<\/strong>t: Knicks (-300)<\/p>\n

Volatility<\/strong>: It\u2019s not just that the Hawks have won the last two games and overcame fourth-quarter deficits both times to do it. The Knicks could be facing an identity crisis. Mikal Bridges was held scoreless in Game 3 on Thursday night. Was it bad enough for coach Mike Brown to make a change to his starting lineup? If not, how long can he stay with Bridges? Also, Jalen Brunson has had two rough finishes at the ends of Games 2 and 3. He was the Clutch Player of the Year last season, and has been through a million tough playoff series, so it would be premature to count him out.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n

Advertisement<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

But the Knicks are also playing under the weight of expectation, with likely ramifications if they fall short of the conference finals (or perhaps finals?). A first-round loss would simply be unacceptable, even though the Hawks are a difficult matchup for them based on personnel.<\/p>\n

\n

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\n document.querySelectorAll(‘.showcase-link-image’).forEach((img) => img.removeAttribute(‘onclick’));<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

What You Should Read Next<\/div>\n
\n \"Unlikely<\/p>\n
\n
\n Unlikely duo of CJ McCollum, Jonathan Kuminga has Hawks positioned to upset Knicks\n <\/div>\n
\n Not long ago, McCollum was toiling in anonymity for the tanking Wizards and Kuminga was racking up DNPs in a Warriors system he didn\u2019t fit.\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

No. 3 Denver at No. 6 Minnesota<\/h3>\n

Series<\/strong>: 2-1, Timberwolves<\/p>\n

Favored at the start<\/strong>: Denver (-400)<\/p>\n

Volatility<\/strong>: The Wolves, like the Hawks in the East, won the last two games in this series. They are making it really hard on Denver\u2019s best player, Nikola Joki\u0107, who shot 7-of-26 in Thursday\u2019s loss. The Nuggets also played without Aaron Gordon (calf) in Game 3. They listed him out with tightness in his calf muscle, but after what happened to Tyrese Haliburton in the finals last year, teams are going to be more careful about allowing players to return from any calf injury, even during a playoff series. Throw in that these two teams are actual rivals, and rivalries tend to supersede things like point spreads and expectations, and it\u2019s clear Minnesota is in a great spot to pull the upset.<\/p>\n

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\/\/ Remove all onclicks on imgs for apps to prevent image zoom on click
\n document.querySelectorAll(‘.showcase-link-image’).forEach((img) => img.removeAttribute(‘onclick’));<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

What You Should Read Next<\/div>\n
\n \"Can<\/p>\n
\n
\n Can Nikola Joki\u0107, after his worst-ever NBA playoff game, respond like Nikola Joki\u0107?\n <\/div>\n
\n None of this means Nikola Joki\u0107 can’t flip a switch in Game 4 and remind the world he’s the greatest. But now he must.\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

Sunday\u2019s Games<\/h2>\n

No. 4 Cleveland at No. 5 Toronto<\/h3>\n

Series<\/strong>: 2-1, Cavs<\/p>\n

Favored at the start<\/strong>: Cavs (-700)<\/p>\n

Volatility<\/strong>: Like the Thunder series, this one still seems relatively calm. The Raptors were beaten soundly in games 1 and 2, and then rode a historic team shooting performance and individual scoring nights from Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett (each scored 33 points) to win Game 3. The Cavs, meanwhile, were bad in every facet of Thursday\u2019s game. All of their stars were bad. The defense was bad. Too many turnovers. Poor shooting. You name it, they stunk at it.<\/p>\n

To declare this series a toss-up, the Raptors need to win a game in which the Cavs aren\u2019t the worst version of themselves. We suppose Toronto could force Cleveland into an equally bad performance in Game 4, which is unlikely, and it\u2019s even more unlikely that the Cavs play that poorly three more times in this series.<\/p>\n

\n

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\/\/ Remove all onclicks on imgs for apps to prevent image zoom on click
\n document.querySelectorAll(‘.showcase-link-image’).forEach((img) => img.removeAttribute(‘onclick’));<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

What You Should Read Next<\/div>\n
\n \"Scottie<\/p>\n
\n
\n Scottie Barnes, Raptors bully Cavaliers in gritty Game 3 victory\n <\/div>\n
\n The Raptors returned to Toronto looking like a team ready to be swept. In Game 3, they flexed remarkable toughness on offense and defense.\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

And yes, there are three other games on Sunday (Spurs-Blazers; Celtics-Sixers; Lakers-Rockets). But can we see what craziness unfolds for those series over the next two nights before we cast any guesses for their Game 4s?<\/p>\n

There\u2019s too much uncertainty between now and then to do otherwise.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

TORONTO \u2014 If the NBA\u2019s first-round series seem chaotic to you, that\u2019s because they are. Before the three games on Thursday, the NBA posted to social media the following snippet: Five first-round series were tied, 1-1, tied for the most series where both teams won one of two games dating back to 1984. Advertisement And […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[226,241],"class_list":["post-1900783","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-crawlmanager","tag-nytimes-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1900783","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1900783"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1900783\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1900783"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1900783"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1900783"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}