{"id":1882128,"date":"2026-04-14T18:54:24","date_gmt":"2026-04-14T15:54:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1882128"},"modified":"2026-04-14T18:54:24","modified_gmt":"2026-04-14T15:54:24","slug":"lebanon-debate-over-fake-plot-to-overthrow-government","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1882128","title":{"rendered":"Lebanon: Debate over &#8216;fake plot&#8217; to overthrow government"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76782881_6.jpg&#8221;]<\/p>\n<article class=\"sk6xmai\">\n<div class=\"content-area sa7l9jt s9mg977\">\n<section data-tracking-name=\"sharing-icons-inline\" class=\"c75t7t0 hh5424a in-line closed\">\n<div class=\"copy-button-wrapper closed\"><span class=\"svdcmki\">https:\/\/p.dw.com\/p\/5CAYt<\/span><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<figure class=\"s4bcs45\"><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76782881_800.webp 50w, https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76782881_801.webp 129w, https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76782881_802.webp 352w, https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76782881_803.webp 575w\" media=\"(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 575px)\" height=\"100\" width=\"100\" \/><figcaption class=\"c1oedowi lofg86o m4xla6a s16w0xvi rcjjkz7 w128axg5 b1fzgn0z\">Over the weekend, hundreds of protesters gathered outside the prime minister&#8217;s headquarters to protest Lebanon talking to Israel <small class=\"copyright c19ed66t ihwmx5 idu7i8u lxmvniw icns9en rcjjkz7 w128axg5 b1fzgn0z\">Image: Nael Chahine\/Middle East Images\/picture alliance<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div data-tracking-skip=\"true\" data-tracking-name=\"rich-text\" class=\"c17j8gzx rc0m0op r1ebneao s198y7xq rich-text l1evdo4u blt0baw s16w0xvi rcjjkz7 w128axg5 b1fzgn0z\">\n<p>According to some conservative commentators, the Israeli attack on <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/lebanon\/t-19131661\">Lebanon<\/a> last week, which left over 300 people dead and more than 2,000 injured, actually disrupted a potentially troubling political plot.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;It seems Israel uncovered this plot by [Lebanese group] Hezbollah to essentially overthrow the Lebanese government,&#8221; Erick Stakelbeck, a conservative American commentator with a YouTube show on Middle Eastern affairs, pronounced enthusiastically, two days after the attack. &#8220;And Lebanon apparently averted a major disaster here, thanks to the Israeli air force.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Stakelbeck&#8217;s <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=tTUwA01xG5o\" title=\"External link \u2014 show on YouTube\">show on YouTube<\/a>\u00a0has over a million followers.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>However, the existence of a <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/hezbollah\/t-41508807\">Hezbollah<\/a> plan to topple the Lebanese government has not been confirmed by any organization supposedly involved \u2014 neither Hezbollah nor the Lebanese or Israeli governments. DW&#8217;s enquiries to Israel&#8217;s ministry of defense and military had not been\u00a0answered by the time of publication.<\/p>\n<p>There were rumors the coup attempt was first reported by Israeli media. But in fact the earliest mention DW could find online came from a social media user called Sufyan al-Samarrai, who is\u00a0well known for inflammatory anti-Iran, pro-Israel commentary and who has close to 225,000 followers.<\/p>\n<p>Only an hour after last Wednesday&#8217;s attacks, which were launched around 2 p.m., al-Samarrai <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/SufianSamarrai\/status\/2041870448514748463\" title=\"External link \u2014 wrote on X, in Arabic,\">wrote on X, in Arabic,<\/a> that &#8220;Israel thwarted a\u00a0 \u2026 coup against the Lebanese government.&#8221;\u00a0Al-Samarrai&#8217;s tweet, in which he did not specify where the information came from, was then amplified by a number of similarly opinionated users.<\/p>\n<p>The coup story was then reported further by media outlets in the region, including Arabic- and French-language outlets in Lebanon.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;According to informed sources, Hezbollah was planning to arrest ministers, members of parliament and political figures, and to target the prime minister by bombing the Grand Serail or his residence,&#8221; <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mtv.com.lb\/news\/1679539\" title=\"External link \u2014 Lebanon's MTV wrote\">Lebanon&#8217;s MTV wrote<\/a> a day after the Israeli attack. The &#8220;Beirut coup&#8221; was meant to &#8220;terrorize the Lebanese people [and] \u2026 was thwarted by the Israeli strike,&#8221; it said.<\/p>\n<h2>Why the coup seemed real<\/h2>\n<p>There are a number of factors that made the coup story appear believable.<\/p>\n<p>For example, Lebanon&#8217;s prime minister announced on April 12 he would not be travelling to the US for talks with Israel, &#8220;in light of the current internal circumstances.&#8221; Some observers took this as a sign he was staying to deal with a coup.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"placeholder-image master_landscape big\"><img data-format=\"MASTER_LANDSCAPE\" data-id=\"76782949\" data-url=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76782949_${formatId}.jpg\" data-aspect-ratio=\"16\/9\" alt=\"Lebanese special forces secure the site near the office of Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in Beirut during a protest by pro-Iranian Hezbollah supporters against the government's decision to hold negotiations with Israel.\"><figcaption class=\"img-caption\">Some locals said the fact that Lebanese secuirty forces were deployed to guard government buildings was also a sign of a possible coup, although others said they were there during protests<small class=\"copyright\">Image: Marwan Naamani\/dpa\/picture alliance<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>There were also rumors that Israel had been able to target mid-tier Hezbollah members\u00a0in Lebanon last Wednesday because they were all on a Zoom call plotting and had somehow revealed their locations.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;This rumor is false,&#8221; a spokesperson from Zoom told DW. The locations collected during an online Zoom meeting via what are known as IP addresses from individual computers are &#8220;only approximate geographic data,&#8221; they explained. That means a city or region, not an address. Zoom doesn&#8217;t keep that information and even if it did, it wouldn&#8217;t provide enough detail for air strikes.<\/p>\n<p>It is also true that <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/what-you-need-to-know-about-hezbollah\/a-67093061\">Hezbollah<\/a> has a combative history with other parts of the Lebanese government, even as its own ministers from the Amal party sit in the country&#8217;s cabinet. Hezbollah&#8217;s critics often argue the group has captured the Lebanese state to a degree.<\/p>\n<h2>Political competition<\/h2>\n<p>Hezbollah plays an outsize role in Lebanon, ostensibly representing the country&#8217;s Shiite Muslims, who make up about 30% of the population. The group has often been described as &#8220;a state within a state&#8221; because of its social and political outreach and a military wing considered stronger than Lebanon&#8217;s own national army.<\/p>\n<p>Hezbollah presents itself as a defender of Lebanese sovereignty and is currently fighting Israel in southern Lebanon, where Israel has invaded to set up what it says is a &#8220;buffer zone&#8221; needed for security.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>But Hezbollah is also <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/whats-next-for-hezbollah-and-the-axis-of-resistance\/a-70376887\">closely allied with Iran<\/a> and in early March, after Israel assassinated Iran&#8217;s supreme leader, Hezbollah <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/lebanon-hezbollah-iran-us-israel-war-humanitarian-crisis\/a-76293444\">fired rockets<\/a> at Israel. This led to an upsurge in Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Hezbollah&#8217;s critics accuse it of dragging Lebanon into war on behalf of a foreign power, something most locals regularly say they want no part of.<\/p>\n<p>More recently, senior members of Hezbollah have been critical of the Lebanese government&#8217;s willingness to <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran-war-israel-says-it-will-hold-talks-with-lebanon-soon\/live-76715205\">negotiate with Israel<\/a>.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"placeholder-image master_landscape big\"><img data-format=\"MASTER_LANDSCAPE\" data-id=\"76782913\" data-url=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76782913_${formatId}.jpg\" data-aspect-ratio=\"16\/9\" alt=\"Pro-Iranian Hezbollah supporters chant slogans after burning the picture of Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam during a protest against the government's decision to hold negotiations with Israel, outside Salam's office in Beirut.\"><figcaption class=\"img-caption\">During protests in Beirut, locals accused Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam of being a traitor and a supporter of Israel and some even burned pictures of him<small class=\"copyright\">Image: Marwan Naamani\/dpa\/picture alliance<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>On Tuesday, talks between Lebanon and Israel began in Washington. After a ceasefire was agreed to by the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/us-israel-war-with-iran\/t-76168615\">US and Iran<\/a>, and it became clear <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/lebanon-gripped-by-uncertainty-over-iran-us-ceasefire\/a-76738853\">Lebanon was not part of that<\/a> after all, these new talks with Israel are meant to address Hezbollah&#8217;s role in Lebanon.<\/p>\n<p>In <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=uIMulv6ybh0\" title=\"External link \u2014 an interview on YouTube\">an interview on YouTube<\/a> last month, senior Hezbollah member Mahmoud Qomati likened the Lebanese leadership to France&#8217;s Vichy government, which collaborated with Germany&#8217;s Nazi regime during World War II. But, as he also said, &#8220;we are committed to stability in the country. We are capable of turning the country upside down, we are capable of overthrowing the government. \u2026 but we are not doing anything.&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>Experts: Coup unlikely<\/h2>\n<p>Amal Saad, a political scientist and expert on Hezbollah at the UK&#8217;s Cardiff University, explains why a coup wouldn&#8217;t make sense to Hezbollah at the moment anyway.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Hezbollah has always been averse to civil strife but is even more so in the war context because of the displaced,&#8221; she says. &#8220;There are <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/lebanons-humanitarian-crisis-worsens-as-fighting-continues\/a-76512884\">over a million<\/a> of them and if there was civil unrest, they would suffer. That&#8217;s why a coup now is not on the cards.&#8221;<\/p>\n<figure class=\"placeholder-image master_landscape big\"><img data-format=\"MASTER_LANDSCAPE\" data-id=\"76782990\" data-url=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76782990_${formatId}.jpg\" data-aspect-ratio=\"16\/9\" alt=\"Displaced Lebanese staying in tents are seen in the Raouche area in Beirut, Lebanon on April 13, 2026.\"><figcaption class=\"img-caption\">Over a million Lebanese have been displaced from southern Lebanon and the Israeli government has indicated they won&#8217;t be able to return <small class=\"copyright\">Image: Houssam Shbaro\/Anadolu\/picture alliance<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>In 2008, Hezbollah fighters were able to take control of parts of western Beirut after the Lebanese government attempted to dismantle Hezbollah&#8217;s telecommunications network.<\/p>\n<p>But, as a former senior Israeli defense official told DW, things are very different now. &#8220;I don&#8217;t think a coup is a real possibility,&#8221; he said, speaking off the record during an online panel. &#8220;I was also told that if Hezbollah initiated a coup, the Shia soldiers in the army would fight with the Lebanese army. Whereas if the Lebanese army decided to dismantle Hezbollah, they&#8217;d likely defect or not participate.&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>&#8216;A\u00a0pretext&#8217; for bombing Lebanon?<\/h2>\n<p>Real or not, the supposed Hezbollah coup has become a subject of debate in Lebanon. Whether one believes the story is true or not\u00a0seems to depend on political affiliation. The same applies to how Lebanese see this week&#8217;s talks in Washington, which \u2014 to some extent \u2014 are perceived as being brought about by last Wednesday&#8217;s attack.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The country woke up to the possibility of peace under the mistaken impression that the Iran-US ceasefire somehow included Lebanon,&#8221; Makram Rabah, a professor at the American University of Beirut, wrote for local media outlet, <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nowlebanon.com\/hezbollahs-zoom-coup-that-israel-crashed\/\" title=\"External link \u2014 Now Lebanon\">Now Lebanon<\/a>. &#8220;Hezbollah, instead of asking how the displaced might return to their homes, appears to have moved directly to the more urgent national priority of toppling a government still invested in ending the bloodshed.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The Israeli account of a Hezbollah coup appears to be a pretext for disproportionate bombing of Lebanon,&#8221; local Francophone outlet Liba News, which describes itself as a citizen media initiative, <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/en.libnanews.com\/on-8-april-israel-did-not-foil-a-coup-d-etat-in-lebanon-it-crushed-a-diplomatic-sequence-under-bombs\/\" title=\"External link \u2014 countered\">countered<\/a>. &#8220;What bothered Israel was not an imaginary putsch. What bothered Israel was the dynamics of negotiations [between the US and Iran].&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The US-Iran talks opened up the possibility of a regional ceasefire, which would have restricted Israel&#8217;s room for military maneuver in Lebanon, the publication argued.&#8221;Israel did not prevent a coup that never happened,&#8221; it said. &#8220;It used a\u00a0political pretext to justify an offensive of overwhelming violence, at a time when diplomatic dynamics might escape it. And it was Lebanon, once again, that paid the heaviest human price.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><em>Edited by: Jess Smee<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<div data-tracking-skip=\"true\" data-tracking-name=\"rich-text\" class=\"c17j8gzx rc0m0op r1ebneao s198y7xq rich-text l1evdo4u blt0baw s16w0xvi rcjjkz7 w128axg5 b1fzgn0z\">\n<p>According to some conservative commentators, the Israeli attack on <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/lebanon\/t-19131661\">Lebanon<\/a> last week, which left over 300 people dead and more than 2,000 injured, actually disrupted a potentially troubling political plot.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;It seems Israel uncovered this plot by [Lebanese group] Hezbollah to essentially overthrow the Lebanese government,&#8221; Erick Stakelbeck, a conservative American commentator with a YouTube show on Middle Eastern affairs, pronounced enthusiastically, two days after the attack. &#8220;And Lebanon apparently averted a major disaster here, thanks to the Israeli air force.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Stakelbeck&#8217;s <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=tTUwA01xG5o\" title=\"External link \u2014 show on YouTube\">show on YouTube<\/a>\u00a0has over a million followers.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>However, the existence of a <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/hezbollah\/t-41508807\">Hezbollah<\/a> plan to topple the Lebanese government has not been confirmed by any organization supposedly involved \u2014 neither Hezbollah nor the Lebanese or Israeli governments. DW&#8217;s enquiries to Israel&#8217;s ministry of defense and military had not been\u00a0answered by the time of publication.<\/p>\n<p>There were rumors the coup attempt was first reported by Israeli media. But in fact the earliest mention DW could find online came from a social media user called Sufyan al-Samarrai, who is\u00a0well known for inflammatory anti-Iran, pro-Israel commentary and who has close to 225,000 followers.<\/p>\n<p>Only an hour after last Wednesday&#8217;s attacks, which were launched around 2 p.m., al-Samarrai <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/SufianSamarrai\/status\/2041870448514748463\" title=\"External link \u2014 wrote on X, in Arabic,\">wrote on X, in Arabic,<\/a> that &#8220;Israel thwarted a\u00a0 \u2026 coup against the Lebanese government.&#8221;\u00a0Al-Samarrai&#8217;s tweet, in which he did not specify where the information came from, was then amplified by a number of similarly opinionated users.<\/p>\n<p>The coup story was then reported further by media outlets in the region, including Arabic- and French-language outlets in Lebanon.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;According to informed sources, Hezbollah was planning to arrest ministers, members of parliament and political figures, and to target the prime minister by bombing the Grand Serail or his residence,&#8221; <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mtv.com.lb\/news\/1679539\" title=\"External link \u2014 Lebanon's MTV wrote\">Lebanon&#8217;s MTV wrote<\/a> a day after the Israeli attack. The &#8220;Beirut coup&#8221; was meant to &#8220;terrorize the Lebanese people [and] \u2026 was thwarted by the Israeli strike,&#8221; it said.<\/p>\n<h2>Why the coup seemed real<\/h2>\n<p>There are a number of factors that made the coup story appear believable.<\/p>\n<p>For example, Lebanon&#8217;s prime minister announced on April 12 he would not be travelling to the US for talks with Israel, &#8220;in light of the current internal circumstances.&#8221; Some observers took this as a sign he was staying to deal with a coup.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"placeholder-image master_landscape big\"><img data-format=\"MASTER_LANDSCAPE\" data-id=\"76782949\" data-url=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76782949_${formatId}.jpg\" data-aspect-ratio=\"16\/9\" alt=\"Lebanese special forces secure the site near the office of Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in Beirut during a protest by pro-Iranian Hezbollah supporters against the government's decision to hold negotiations with Israel.\"><figcaption class=\"img-caption\">Some locals said the fact that Lebanese secuirty forces were deployed to guard government buildings was also a sign of a possible coup, although others said they were there during protests<small class=\"copyright\">Image: Marwan Naamani\/dpa\/picture alliance<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>There were also rumors that Israel had been able to target mid-tier Hezbollah members\u00a0in Lebanon last Wednesday because they were all on a Zoom call plotting and had somehow revealed their locations.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;This rumor is false,&#8221; a spokesperson from Zoom told DW. The locations collected during an online Zoom meeting via what are known as IP addresses from individual computers are &#8220;only approximate geographic data,&#8221; they explained. That means a city or region, not an address. Zoom doesn&#8217;t keep that information and even if it did, it wouldn&#8217;t provide enough detail for air strikes.<\/p>\n<p>It is also true that <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/what-you-need-to-know-about-hezbollah\/a-67093061\">Hezbollah<\/a> has a combative history with other parts of the Lebanese government, even as its own ministers from the Amal party sit in the country&#8217;s cabinet. Hezbollah&#8217;s critics often argue the group has captured the Lebanese state to a degree.<\/p>\n<h2>Political competition<\/h2>\n<p>Hezbollah plays an outsize role in Lebanon, ostensibly representing the country&#8217;s Shiite Muslims, who make up about 30% of the population. The group has often been described as &#8220;a state within a state&#8221; because of its social and political outreach and a military wing considered stronger than Lebanon&#8217;s own national army.<\/p>\n<p>Hezbollah presents itself as a defender of Lebanese sovereignty and is currently fighting Israel in southern Lebanon, where Israel has invaded to set up what it says is a &#8220;buffer zone&#8221; needed for security.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>But Hezbollah is also <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/whats-next-for-hezbollah-and-the-axis-of-resistance\/a-70376887\">closely allied with Iran<\/a> and in early March, after Israel assassinated Iran&#8217;s supreme leader, Hezbollah <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/lebanon-hezbollah-iran-us-israel-war-humanitarian-crisis\/a-76293444\">fired rockets<\/a> at Israel. This led to an upsurge in Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Hezbollah&#8217;s critics accuse it of dragging Lebanon into war on behalf of a foreign power, something most locals regularly say they want no part of.<\/p>\n<p>More recently, senior members of Hezbollah have been critical of the Lebanese government&#8217;s willingness to <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran-war-israel-says-it-will-hold-talks-with-lebanon-soon\/live-76715205\">negotiate with Israel<\/a>.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"placeholder-image master_landscape big\"><img data-format=\"MASTER_LANDSCAPE\" data-id=\"76782913\" data-url=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76782913_${formatId}.jpg\" data-aspect-ratio=\"16\/9\" alt=\"Pro-Iranian Hezbollah supporters chant slogans after burning the picture of Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam during a protest against the government's decision to hold negotiations with Israel, outside Salam's office in Beirut.\"><figcaption class=\"img-caption\">During protests in Beirut, locals accused Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam of being a traitor and a supporter of Israel and some even burned pictures of him<small class=\"copyright\">Image: Marwan Naamani\/dpa\/picture alliance<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>On Tuesday, talks between Lebanon and Israel began in Washington. After a ceasefire was agreed to by the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/us-israel-war-with-iran\/t-76168615\">US and Iran<\/a>, and it became clear <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/lebanon-gripped-by-uncertainty-over-iran-us-ceasefire\/a-76738853\">Lebanon was not part of that<\/a> after all, these new talks with Israel are meant to address Hezbollah&#8217;s role in Lebanon.<\/p>\n<p>In <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=uIMulv6ybh0\" title=\"External link \u2014 an interview on YouTube\">an interview on YouTube<\/a> last month, senior Hezbollah member Mahmoud Qomati likened the Lebanese leadership to France&#8217;s Vichy government, which collaborated with Germany&#8217;s Nazi regime during World War II. But, as he also said, &#8220;we are committed to stability in the country. We are capable of turning the country upside down, we are capable of overthrowing the government. \u2026 but we are not doing anything.&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>Experts: Coup unlikely<\/h2>\n<p>Amal Saad, a political scientist and expert on Hezbollah at the UK&#8217;s Cardiff University, explains why a coup wouldn&#8217;t make sense to Hezbollah at the moment anyway.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Hezbollah has always been averse to civil strife but is even more so in the war context because of the displaced,&#8221; she says. &#8220;There are <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/lebanons-humanitarian-crisis-worsens-as-fighting-continues\/a-76512884\">over a million<\/a> of them and if there was civil unrest, they would suffer. That&#8217;s why a coup now is not on the cards.&#8221;<\/p>\n<figure class=\"placeholder-image master_landscape big\"><img data-format=\"MASTER_LANDSCAPE\" data-id=\"76782990\" data-url=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76782990_${formatId}.jpg\" data-aspect-ratio=\"16\/9\" alt=\"Displaced Lebanese staying in tents are seen in the Raouche area in Beirut, Lebanon on April 13, 2026.\"><figcaption class=\"img-caption\">Over a million Lebanese have been displaced from southern Lebanon and the Israeli government has indicated they won&#8217;t be able to return <small class=\"copyright\">Image: Houssam Shbaro\/Anadolu\/picture alliance<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>In 2008, Hezbollah fighters were able to take control of parts of western Beirut after the Lebanese government attempted to dismantle Hezbollah&#8217;s telecommunications network.<\/p>\n<p>But, as a former senior Israeli defense official told DW, things are very different now. &#8220;I don&#8217;t think a coup is a real possibility,&#8221; he said, speaking off the record during an online panel. &#8220;I was also told that if Hezbollah initiated a coup, the Shia soldiers in the army would fight with the Lebanese army. Whereas if the Lebanese army decided to dismantle Hezbollah, they&#8217;d likely defect or not participate.&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>&#8216;A\u00a0pretext&#8217; for bombing Lebanon?<\/h2>\n<p>Real or not, the supposed Hezbollah coup has become a subject of debate in Lebanon. Whether one believes the story is true or not\u00a0seems to depend on political affiliation. The same applies to how Lebanese see this week&#8217;s talks in Washington, which \u2014 to some extent \u2014 are perceived as being brought about by last Wednesday&#8217;s attack.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The country woke up to the possibility of peace under the mistaken impression that the Iran-US ceasefire somehow included Lebanon,&#8221; Makram Rabah, a professor at the American University of Beirut, wrote for local media outlet, <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nowlebanon.com\/hezbollahs-zoom-coup-that-israel-crashed\/\" title=\"External link \u2014 Now Lebanon\">Now Lebanon<\/a>. &#8220;Hezbollah, instead of asking how the displaced might return to their homes, appears to have moved directly to the more urgent national priority of toppling a government still invested in ending the bloodshed.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The Israeli account of a Hezbollah coup appears to be a pretext for disproportionate bombing of Lebanon,&#8221; local Francophone outlet Liba News, which describes itself as a citizen media initiative, <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/en.libnanews.com\/on-8-april-israel-did-not-foil-a-coup-d-etat-in-lebanon-it-crushed-a-diplomatic-sequence-under-bombs\/\" title=\"External link \u2014 countered\">countered<\/a>. &#8220;What bothered Israel was not an imaginary putsch. What bothered Israel was the dynamics of negotiations [between the US and Iran].&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The US-Iran talks opened up the possibility of a regional ceasefire, which would have restricted Israel&#8217;s room for military maneuver in Lebanon, the publication argued.&#8221;Israel did not prevent a coup that never happened,&#8221; it said. &#8220;It used a\u00a0political pretext to justify an offensive of overwhelming violence, at a time when diplomatic dynamics might escape it. And it was Lebanon, once again, that paid the heaviest human price.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><em>Edited by: Jess Smee<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>According to some conservative commentators, the Israeli attack on <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/lebanon\/t-19131661\">Lebanon<\/a> last week, which left over 300 people dead and more than 2,000 injured, actually disrupted a potentially troubling political plot.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;It seems Israel uncovered this plot by [Lebanese group] Hezbollah to essentially overthrow the Lebanese government,&#8221; Erick Stakelbeck, a conservative American commentator with a YouTube show on Middle Eastern affairs, pronounced enthusiastically, two days after the attack. &#8220;And Lebanon apparently averted a major disaster here, thanks to the Israeli air force.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Stakelbeck&#8217;s <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=tTUwA01xG5o\" title=\"External link \u2014 show on YouTube\">show on YouTube<\/a>\u00a0has over a million followers.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>However, the existence of a <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/hezbollah\/t-41508807\">Hezbollah<\/a> plan to topple the Lebanese government has not been confirmed by any organization supposedly involved \u2014 neither Hezbollah nor the Lebanese or Israeli governments. DW&#8217;s enquiries to Israel&#8217;s ministry of defense and military had not been\u00a0answered by the time of publication.<\/p>\n<p>There were rumors the coup attempt was first reported by Israeli media. But in fact the earliest mention DW could find online came from a social media user called Sufyan al-Samarrai, who is\u00a0well known for inflammatory anti-Iran, pro-Israel commentary and who has close to 225,000 followers.<\/p>\n<p>Only an hour after last Wednesday&#8217;s attacks, which were launched around 2 p.m., al-Samarrai <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/SufianSamarrai\/status\/2041870448514748463\" title=\"External link \u2014 wrote on X, in Arabic,\">wrote on X, in Arabic,<\/a> that &#8220;Israel thwarted a\u00a0 \u2026 coup against the Lebanese government.&#8221;\u00a0Al-Samarrai&#8217;s tweet, in which he did not specify where the information came from, was then amplified by a number of similarly opinionated users.<\/p>\n<p>The coup story was then reported further by media outlets in the region, including Arabic- and French-language outlets in Lebanon.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;According to informed sources, Hezbollah was planning to arrest ministers, members of parliament and political figures, and to target the prime minister by bombing the Grand Serail or his residence,&#8221; <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mtv.com.lb\/news\/1679539\" title=\"External link \u2014 Lebanon's MTV wrote\">Lebanon&#8217;s MTV wrote<\/a> a day after the Israeli attack. The &#8220;Beirut coup&#8221; was meant to &#8220;terrorize the Lebanese people [and] \u2026 was thwarted by the Israeli strike,&#8221; it said.<\/p>\n<p>There are a number of factors that made the coup story appear believable.<\/p>\n<p>For example, Lebanon&#8217;s prime minister announced on April 12 he would not be travelling to the US for talks with Israel, &#8220;in light of the current internal circumstances.&#8221; Some observers took this as a sign he was staying to deal with a coup.<\/p>\n<p>There were also rumors that Israel had been able to target mid-tier Hezbollah members\u00a0in Lebanon last Wednesday because they were all on a Zoom call plotting and had somehow revealed their locations.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;This rumor is false,&#8221; a spokesperson from Zoom told DW. The locations collected during an online Zoom meeting via what are known as IP addresses from individual computers are &#8220;only approximate geographic data,&#8221; they explained. That means a city or region, not an address. Zoom doesn&#8217;t keep that information and even if it did, it wouldn&#8217;t provide enough detail for air strikes.<\/p>\n<p>It is also true that <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/what-you-need-to-know-about-hezbollah\/a-67093061\">Hezbollah<\/a> has a combative history with other parts of the Lebanese government, even as its own ministers from the Amal party sit in the country&#8217;s cabinet. Hezbollah&#8217;s critics often argue the group has captured the Lebanese state to a degree.<\/p>\n<p>Hezbollah plays an outsize role in Lebanon, ostensibly representing the country&#8217;s Shiite Muslims, who make up about 30% of the population. The group has often been described as &#8220;a state within a state&#8221; because of its social and political outreach and a military wing considered stronger than Lebanon&#8217;s own national army.<\/p>\n<p>Hezbollah presents itself as a defender of Lebanese sovereignty and is currently fighting Israel in southern Lebanon, where Israel has invaded to set up what it says is a &#8220;buffer zone&#8221; needed for security.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>But Hezbollah is also <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/whats-next-for-hezbollah-and-the-axis-of-resistance\/a-70376887\">closely allied with Iran<\/a> and in early March, after Israel assassinated Iran&#8217;s supreme leader, Hezbollah <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/lebanon-hezbollah-iran-us-israel-war-humanitarian-crisis\/a-76293444\">fired rockets<\/a> at Israel. This led to an upsurge in Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Hezbollah&#8217;s critics accuse it of dragging Lebanon into war on behalf of a foreign power, something most locals regularly say they want no part of.<\/p>\n<p>More recently, senior members of Hezbollah have been critical of the Lebanese government&#8217;s willingness to <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran-war-israel-says-it-will-hold-talks-with-lebanon-soon\/live-76715205\">negotiate with Israel<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>On Tuesday, talks between Lebanon and Israel began in Washington. After a ceasefire was agreed to by the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/us-israel-war-with-iran\/t-76168615\">US and Iran<\/a>, and it became clear <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/lebanon-gripped-by-uncertainty-over-iran-us-ceasefire\/a-76738853\">Lebanon was not part of that<\/a> after all, these new talks with Israel are meant to address Hezbollah&#8217;s role in Lebanon.<\/p>\n<p>In <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=uIMulv6ybh0\" title=\"External link \u2014 an interview on YouTube\">an interview on YouTube<\/a> last month, senior Hezbollah member Mahmoud Qomati likened the Lebanese leadership to France&#8217;s Vichy government, which collaborated with Germany&#8217;s Nazi regime during World War II. But, as he also said, &#8220;we are committed to stability in the country. We are capable of turning the country upside down, we are capable of overthrowing the government. \u2026 but we are not doing anything.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Amal Saad, a political scientist and expert on Hezbollah at the UK&#8217;s Cardiff University, explains why a coup wouldn&#8217;t make sense to Hezbollah at the moment anyway.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Hezbollah has always been averse to civil strife but is even more so in the war context because of the displaced,&#8221; she says. &#8220;There are <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/lebanons-humanitarian-crisis-worsens-as-fighting-continues\/a-76512884\">over a million<\/a> of them and if there was civil unrest, they would suffer. That&#8217;s why a coup now is not on the cards.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>In 2008, Hezbollah fighters were able to take control of parts of western Beirut after the Lebanese government attempted to dismantle Hezbollah&#8217;s telecommunications network.<\/p>\n<p>But, as a former senior Israeli defense official told DW, things are very different now. &#8220;I don&#8217;t think a coup is a real possibility,&#8221; he said, speaking off the record during an online panel. &#8220;I was also told that if Hezbollah initiated a coup, the Shia soldiers in the army would fight with the Lebanese army. Whereas if the Lebanese army decided to dismantle Hezbollah, they&#8217;d likely defect or not participate.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Real or not, the supposed Hezbollah coup has become a subject of debate in Lebanon. Whether one believes the story is true or not\u00a0seems to depend on political affiliation. The same applies to how Lebanese see this week&#8217;s talks in Washington, which \u2014 to some extent \u2014 are perceived as being brought about by last Wednesday&#8217;s attack.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The country woke up to the possibility of peace under the mistaken impression that the Iran-US ceasefire somehow included Lebanon,&#8221; Makram Rabah, a professor at the American University of Beirut, wrote for local media outlet, <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nowlebanon.com\/hezbollahs-zoom-coup-that-israel-crashed\/\" title=\"External link \u2014 Now Lebanon\">Now Lebanon<\/a>. &#8220;Hezbollah, instead of asking how the displaced might return to their homes, appears to have moved directly to the more urgent national priority of toppling a government still invested in ending the bloodshed.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The Israeli account of a Hezbollah coup appears to be a pretext for disproportionate bombing of Lebanon,&#8221; local Francophone outlet Liba News, which describes itself as a citizen media initiative, <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/en.libnanews.com\/on-8-april-israel-did-not-foil-a-coup-d-etat-in-lebanon-it-crushed-a-diplomatic-sequence-under-bombs\/\" title=\"External link \u2014 countered\">countered<\/a>. &#8220;What bothered Israel was not an imaginary putsch. What bothered Israel was the dynamics of negotiations [between the US and Iran].&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The US-Iran talks opened up the possibility of a regional ceasefire, which would have restricted Israel&#8217;s room for military maneuver in Lebanon, the publication argued.&#8221;Israel did not prevent a coup that never happened,&#8221; it said. &#8220;It used a\u00a0political pretext to justify an offensive of overwhelming violence, at a time when diplomatic dynamics might escape it. And it was Lebanon, once again, that paid the heaviest human price.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><em>Edited by: Jess Smee<\/em><\/p>\n<p>[analyse_source url=&#8221;https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/lebanon-debate-over-fake-plot-to-overthrow-government\/a-76782219&#8243;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76782881_6.jpg&#8221;] https:\/\/p.dw.com\/p\/5CAYt Over the weekend, hundreds of protesters gathered outside the prime minister&#8217;s headquarters to protest Lebanon talking to Israel Image: Nael Chahine\/Middle East Images\/picture alliance According to some conservative commentators, the Israeli attack on Lebanon last week, which left over 300 people dead and more than 2,000 injured, actually disrupted a potentially [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[226,74],"class_list":["post-1882128","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","tag-crawlmanager","tag-dw-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1882128","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1882128"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1882128\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1882128"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1882128"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1882128"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}