{"id":1878411,"date":"2026-04-12T04:29:34","date_gmt":"2026-04-12T01:29:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1878411"},"modified":"2026-04-12T04:29:34","modified_gmt":"2026-04-12T01:29:34","slug":"viktor-orban-sau-peter-magyar-cine-ar-fi-mai-bine-pentru-romania-sa-castige-sa-nu-ne-asteptam-la-o","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1878411","title":{"rendered":"Viktor Orb\u00e1n sau P\u00e9ter Magyar? Cine ar fi mai bine pentru Rom\u00e2nia s\u0103 c\u00e2\u0219tige: \u201eS\u0103 nu ne a\u0219tept\u0103m la o&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/cdn.adh.reperio.news\/image-c\/c32810e7-3b25-438f-9065-ba205cc7ef9e\/index.jpeg?p=f%3Djpeg%26w%3D1200%26h%3D630%26r%3Dcover&#8221;]<\/p>\n<article class=\"svelte-t0js42\">\n<nav>\n<ul class=\"breadcrump svelte-xauq0s\">\n<li class=\"svelte-xauq0s\"><a href=\"\/\" title=\"Adev\u0103rul\" class=\"svelte-xauq0s\">Home<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"svelte-xauq0s\"><a href=\"\/stiri-externe\" class=\"svelte-xauq0s\">\u0218tiri Externe<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"svelte-xauq0s\"><a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/stiri-externe\/viktor-orban-sau-peter-magyar-cine-ar-fi-mai-bine-2522139.html\" class=\"svelte-xauq0s\">Viktor Orb\u00e1n sau P\u00e9ter Magyar? Cine ar fi mai bine pentru Rom\u00e2nia s\u0103 c\u00e2\u0219tige: \u201eS\u0103 nu ne a\u0219tept\u0103m la o schimbare radical\u0103\u201d<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/nav>\n<p><main class=\"svelte-t0js42\"><\/p>\n<p>Vecinii<br \/>\nno\u0219tri de la vest, ungurii, \u00ee\u0219i aleg viitorii conduc\u0103tori dintre<br \/>\nViktor Orb\u00e1n \u0219i P\u00e9ter Magyar, respectiv FIDESZ \u0219i TISZA.<br \/>\nPolitologul Sorina Soare, de la Universitatea din Floren\u021ba, explic\u0103,<br \/>\npentru \u201eAdev\u0103rul\u201d, cine porne\u0219te cu prima \u0219ans\u0103 \u0219i ce<br \/>\nrelevan\u021b\u0103 au pentru Rom\u00e2nia aceste alegeri.<\/p>\n<div class=\"container-image  svelte-jd4qiv\"><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.adh.reperio.news\/image-c\/c32810e7-3b25-438f-9065-ba205cc7ef9e\/index.jpeg?p=a%3D1%26co%3D1.05%26w%3D1400%26h%3D750%26r%3Dcontain%26f%3Dwebp 1400w\" media=\"(min-width: 1400px)\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"caption\">Ilie Bolojan, Kelemen Hunor \u0219i Viktor Orban la Congresul UDMR. FOTO: Inquam \/ Simion T\u0103taru <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Ungurii<br \/>\nde pretutindeni vor afla duminic\u0103, 12 aprilie, dup\u0103 \u00eenchiderea<br \/>\nurnelor, dac\u0103 Viktor Orb\u00e1n \u0219i FIDESZ vor supravie\u021bui \u0219i acestor<br \/>\nalegeri \u0219i vor r\u0103m\u00e2ne la putere sau dac\u0103 TISZA lui P\u00e9ter Magyar<br \/>\npreia puterea. Cu c\u00e2teva ore \u00eenainte de deschiderea urnelor, cele<br \/>\nmai multe dintre sondajele de opinie d\u0103deau opozi\u021bia cu un avans<br \/>\nconfortabil \u00een fa\u021ba forma\u021biunii conduse de Orb\u00e1n. Asta nu<br \/>\n\u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 Magyar \u0219i fanii s\u0103i pot scoate deja \u0219ampaniile puse<br \/>\nla rece.<\/p>\n<p>Exist\u0103<br \/>\n\u00eens\u0103 \u0219i argumente \u00een favoarea actualului premier ungar \u0219i a<br \/>\nFIDESZ. Ungaria are un sistem mixt &#8211; uninominal plus liste &#8211; care<br \/>\nfavorizeaz\u0103 masiv partidul cel mai mare prin \u201evoturile de<br \/>\ncompensare\u201d ale \u00eenving\u0103torilor. Chiar \u0219i cu un vot popular<br \/>\nstr\u00e2ns, FIDESZ ar putea re\u021bine puterea datorit\u0103 modului \u00een care<br \/>\nsunt desenate circumscrip\u021biile.<\/p>\n<p>Sorina<br \/>\nSoare, specialist\u0103 \u00een politic\u0103 comparat\u0103 la Universitatea din<br \/>\nFloren\u021ba, a vorbit cu \u201eAdev\u0103rul\u201d despre alegerile din Ungaria<br \/>\n\u0219i a<a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/stiri-interne\/evenimente\/sfatul-pe-care-i-l-ar-da-lui-trump-consilierul-sau-2519716.html\"> explicat <\/a>\u00een ce fel poate fi afectat\u0103 sau nu Rom\u00e2nia de<br \/>\nrezultatul lor.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2>De ce sondajele devin tot mai irelevante<\/h2>\n<p><i>\u201eDin<br \/>\nc\u00e2te am \u00een\u021beles, situa\u021bia este foarte pu\u021bin clar\u0103 \u00een momentul<br \/>\nde fa\u021b\u0103 \u00een Ungaria. Exist\u0103 foarte mult\u0103 mobilizare, a\u0219 putea<br \/>\nspune, at\u00e2t \u00een c\u00e2mpul lui Orb\u00e1n, c\u00e2t \u0219i \u00een c\u00e2mpul lui Magyar,<br \/>\ndar, \u00een acela\u0219i timp, nu se \u0219tie foarte bine cum se poate ajunge<br \/>\nla o victorie solid\u0103 \u0219i tradus\u0103 \u00een mandate, tradus\u0103 \u00een guvern<br \/>\nefectiv\u201d<\/i>, spune Sorina Soare, expert\u0103 ale c\u0103rei interese sale de cercetare mai includ partidele politice, procesele de democratizare \u0219i populismul european.<\/p>\n<p>Ea<a href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/stiri-interne\/evenimente\/ce-ii-lipseste-romaniei-ca-sa-mearga-in-directia-2520449.html\"><br \/>\naminte\u0219te <\/a>c\u0103 tot mai frecvent rezultatele<br \/>\nsondajelor preelectorale difer\u0103 substan\u021bial de cele ale alegerilor. E un<br \/>\ndetaliu, spune Sorina Soare, mai u\u0219or de remarcat atunci c\u00e2nd aleg\u0103torii se<br \/>\nmobilizeaz\u0103 \u0219i se prezint\u0103 la urne \u00een num\u0103r mare, peste cel estimat.<\/p>\n<p><i>\u201eA\u0219a<br \/>\na fost \u0219i \u00een Slovenia, nu doar \u00een Rom\u00e2nia. P\u00e2n\u0103 cu c\u00e2teva zile<br \/>\n\u00eenainte de alegeri, partidele, s\u0103 zicem, radicale p\u0103reau s\u0103 fie<br \/>\navantajate, dar apoi au c\u00e2\u0219tigat liberalii. Participarea este sigur<br \/>\nun element foarte important. Cu c\u00e2t cre\u0219te participarea, cu at\u00e2t e<br \/>\nmai greu de prev\u0103zut care vor fi rezultatele. Inclusiv \u00een situa\u021bia<br \/>\ndin Italia de acum dou\u0103 s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni, nimeni nu s-a a\u0219teptat s\u0103<br \/>\nfie o participare la referendum at\u00e2t de mare \u0219i nimeni nu \u00eendr\u0103znea<br \/>\ns\u0103 se exprime care este c\u00e2mpul care va c\u00e2\u0219tiga. Pentru c\u0103 nu ai<br \/>\ncum s\u0103 \u0219tii cine s-a mobilizat mai mult. Eu cred c\u0103 aceasta este<br \/>\nsitua\u021bia \u0219i \u00een Ungaria<\/i>\u201d, adaug\u0103 ea.<\/p>\n<h2>Maghiarii din Rom\u00e2nia vor vota FIDESZ<\/h2>\n<p>\u00cen<br \/>\nce prive\u0219te ungurii din alte \u021b\u0103ri, dar cu drept de vot, Sorina<br \/>\nSoare consider\u0103 c\u0103 cei mai mul\u021bi vor vota cu FIDESZ.<\/p>\n<p><i>\u201eCeea<br \/>\nce \u0219tim e c\u0103 la nivel de comunit\u0103\u021bi, de coetnici, se vor mobiliza<br \/>\ncel mai mult sus\u021bin\u0103torii lui  Viktor Orb\u00e1n. A\u021bi v\u0103zut \u0219i la<br \/>\nnoi, \u00een Transilvania, inclusiv celebrit\u0103\u021bi precum Laszlo B\u00f6l\u00f6ni, dar \u0219i cluburile de fotbal<br \/>\n\u0219i chiar UDMR \u0219i-au f\u0103cut public\u0103 sus\u021binerea pentru acesta\u201d<\/i>,<br \/>\nmai spune Sorina Soare.<\/p>\n<p>\u00cen<br \/>\nschimb, sprijinul a\u0219teptat de peste Atlantic din partea lui Donald<br \/>\nTrump \u0219i a conservatorilor americani a r\u0103mas unul declarativ, chiar<br \/>\ndac\u0103 JD Vance s-a deplasat personal la Budapesta \u0219i f\u0103cut o serie<br \/>\nde declara\u021bii pro-Orb\u00e1n. Asta \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 de\u0219i Statele Unite au<br \/>\n\u00eencercat s\u0103-i ofere un anumit tip de sus\u021binere lui Viktor Orb\u00e1n,<br \/>\niar Bruxelles-ul l-a sus\u021binut pe adversarul s\u0103u, sprijinul nu a<br \/>\ndep\u0103\u0219it anumite limite.\n<\/p>\n<p><i>\u201eSigur,<br \/>\nStatele Unite, cu excep\u021bia Argentinei lui Milei, nu s-au implicat<br \/>\ntotu\u0219i economic \u00een sus\u021binerea altor partide conservatoare \u0219i nici<br \/>\n\u00een campanii, ceea ce cel pu\u021bin a\u0219a pare p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een momentul de<br \/>\nfa\u021b\u0103, inclusiv cu Viktor Orb\u00e1n. Da, americanii sunt prezen\u021bi pe<br \/>\nteritoriu, \u00eei sus\u021bin verbal, dar nu intervin mai mult dec\u00e2t at\u00e2t.<br \/>\nCeea ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 exist\u0103 \u00eenc\u0103 o dimensiune foarte pragmatic\u0103<br \/>\n\u00een politic\u0103, \u00een ce prive\u0219te Statele Unite\u201d<\/i>, explic\u0103 ea.<\/p>\n<h2>P\u00e9ter Magyar e \u0219i mai na\u021bionalist ca\u00a0Orb\u00e1n <\/h2>\n<p>\u00cen<br \/>\nce prive\u0219te Rom\u00e2nia, nu este foarte clar dac\u0103 \u021bara noastr\u0103 ar<br \/>\navea de beneficiat \u0219i \u00een ce m\u0103sur\u0103 din victoria unuia dintre cei<br \/>\ndoi, Viktor Orb\u00e1n sau P\u00e9ter Magyar. Ultimul a surprins \u00eentr-o<br \/>\nm\u0103sur\u0103 cu declara\u021bii din care a r\u0103zb\u0103tut na\u021bionalismul, un<br \/>\nna\u021bionalism chiar mai pronun\u021bat dec\u00e2t \u00een cazul lui Orb\u00e1n. A<br \/>\ndovedit-o \u0219i cu mar\u0219ul s\u0103u din Rom\u00e2nia, c\u00e2nd a ajuns la Oradea<br \/>\n\u0219i Arad, \u00een \u00eencercarea de a mobiliza electoratul care vota \u00een<br \/>\nUngaria.<\/p>\n<p><i>\u201eEste<br \/>\nadev\u0103rat c\u0103 Magyar are \u0219i el un discurs na\u021bionalist. Acest lucru<br \/>\neste unul dintre elementele care ar putea explica succesul s\u0103u<br \/>\npolitic \u00een Ungaria. \u0218i de aceea \u00eei este mai u\u0219or s\u0103 c\u00e2\u0219tige<br \/>\npoate \u0219i alegerile, pentru c\u0103 este credibil pe anumite teme<br \/>\nna\u021bionale<\/i>\u201d, puncteaz\u0103 experta.<\/p>\n<p>De<br \/>\naltfel, P\u00e9ter Magyar \u0219i-a ar\u0103tat \u201ecol\u021bii\u201d spre Ucraina. De\u0219i<br \/>\nse declar\u0103 pro-european convins, iar Viktor Orb\u00e1n l-a acuzat c\u0103 ar<br \/>\nfi omul lui Volodimir Zelenski,<br \/>\nMagyar s-a remarcat \u00een c\u00e2teva situa\u021bii \u0219i prin declara\u021bii<br \/>\nbelicoase la adresa ucrainenilor. De altfel, P\u00e9ter Magyar a spus \u0219i<br \/>\nc\u0103 Ungaria va continua s\u0103 fie o \u021bar\u0103 pragmatic\u0103, urm\u0103rindu-\u0219i<br \/>\ninteresele, iar dac\u0103 acestea o vor cere, va colabora \u0219i cu Rusia.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"related-inline svelte-1t8qpgs\" data-gtrack='{\"event\":\"utm_click\",\"data\":{\"event_category\":\"article_related\"}}' href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/stiri-interne\/evenimente\/ce-ii-lipseste-romaniei-ca-sa-mearga-in-directia-2520449.html\" title=\"Alt articol de interes pentru tine\"><span class=\"inline-title svelte-1t8qpgs\">Ce \u00eei lipse\u0219te Rom\u00e2niei ca s\u0103 mearg\u0103 \u00een direc\u021bia bun\u0103? Un politolog din SUA pune degetul pe ran\u0103: \u201e\u00cen Turcia, \u00een 2004-2005, autostr\u0103zile erau SF pentru Rom\u00e2nia\u201d<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><i>\u201eO<br \/>\neventual\u0103 victorie a lui Magyar nu va fi \u00eensemna o ruptur\u0103 complet\u0103 fa\u021b\u0103<br \/>\nde stilul lui Orb\u00e1n. Singurele aspecte pozitive ar fi c\u0103 leg\u0103tura Ungariei cu<br \/>\nBruxelles-ul va fi mai bun\u0103, c\u0103 el va accepta ca Uniunea<br \/>\nEuropean\u0103 s\u0103 ajute Ucraina, c\u0103 nu se va mai opune. Magyar va fi mai<br \/>\napropiat \u0219i mai deschis s\u0103 negocieze cu Bruxelles-ul. \u00cens\u0103 nu<br \/>\ntrebuie s\u0103 uit\u0103m c\u0103 \u00een foarte multe teme el este aliniat perfect<br \/>\ncu Orb\u00e1n<\/i>\u201d, mai afirm\u0103 Sorina Soare.<\/p>\n<h2>Ce se poate schimba \u0219i ce nu \u00een Ungaria<\/h2>\n<p><i>\u201eAceast\u0103<br \/>\naliniere este explicabil\u0103 \u0219i prin faptul c\u0103 ambii se adreseaz\u0103 \u0219i<br \/>\nunui electorat mai na\u021bionalist\u201d,<\/i> explic\u0103 ea.<\/p>\n<p>\u00cens\u0103<br \/>\nchiar \u0219i a\u0219a simpatizan\u021bii rom\u00e2ni ai lui P\u00e9ter Magyar ar putea<br \/>\ns\u0103 aib\u0103 parte de o surpriz\u0103 nepl\u0103cut\u0103.<\/p>\n<p><i>\u201eMagyar<br \/>\nnu poate fi prietenul Ucrainei \u201epe de-a \u00eentregul\u201d, ca s\u0103 spun<br \/>\na\u0219a. \u0218i s\u0103 nu uit\u0103m c\u0103 \u0219i \u00een Rom\u00e2nia, \u00een parantez\u0103 fie<br \/>\nspus, exist\u0103 chestiunea minorit\u0103\u021bilor, exist\u0103 anumite<br \/>\nsensibilit\u0103\u021bi. E foarte greu s\u0103 fii \u00een aceast\u0103 zon\u0103 \u201eprieten\u201d<br \/>\ncu cineva, pentru c\u0103 au fost multe traume istorice. \u0218i continu\u0103 s\u0103<br \/>\nr\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 anumite traume istorice care sunt vehiculate politic. De<br \/>\naceea nu cred c\u0103 trebuie s\u0103 ne a\u0219tept\u0103m la o schimbare radical\u0103<br \/>\ndin punctul de vedere al agendei politice \u00een Ungaria, indiferent<br \/>\ncine va forma viitorul guvern<\/i>\u201d, este de p\u0103rere Sorina Soare.<\/p>\n<p>P\u00e9ter<br \/>\nMagyar ar putea \u00een schimb s\u0103 aib\u0103 o pozi\u021bie diferit\u0103 fa\u021b\u0103 de<br \/>\nminorit\u0103\u021bile sexuale \u0219i s\u0103 r\u0103spund\u0103 favorabil unor solicit\u0103ri<br \/>\nde la Bruxelles fa\u021b\u0103 de care Orb\u00e1n a fost de regul\u0103 reticent.<\/p>\n<p><i>\u201eVa<br \/>\nfi o schimbare fa\u021b\u0103 de drepturile de baz\u0103 ale unei democra\u021bii<br \/>\nliberale, f\u0103r\u0103 niciun dubiu, dar nu o schimbare de con\u021binut<br \/>\nradical. \u0218i nu e vorba numai de na\u021bionalism, ci inclusiv de o<br \/>\npozi\u021bie pragmatic\u0103. Asta \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103, av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere campania<br \/>\nf\u0103cut\u0103 de FIDESZ \u0219i de Orb\u00e1n \u00eempotriva lui Magyar, o campanie<br \/>\ncare \u00eel prezint\u0103 ca fiind amicul lui Zelenski \u0219i al lumii<br \/>\noccidentale, Magyar este obligat s\u0103 reac\u021bioneze pentru a nu pierde<br \/>\nelectorat. Deci e \u0219i o dimensiune strategic\u0103 acolo\u201d,<\/i> mai spune<br \/>\nea.<\/p>\n<h2>Viktor Orb\u00e1n,\u00a0\u00eentre \u201eputinist\u201d \u0219i lider model<\/h2>\n<p>\u00cen<br \/>\nce prive\u0219te dezbaterea care exist\u0103 cu privire la Viktor Orb\u00e1n, \u00een<br \/>\ncare adversarii s\u0103i \u00eel acuz\u0103 c\u0103 ar \u00eenclina Ungaria Rusiei lui<br \/>\nPutin, \u00een timp ce votan\u021bii FIDESZ sus\u021bin c\u0103 acesta face ceea ce<br \/>\ntrebuie s\u0103 fac\u0103 pentru ca Ungaria s\u0103 poat\u0103 supravie\u021bui \u00een<br \/>\ncondi\u021biile dificile de acum, Sorina Soare nuan\u021beaz\u0103. \u00cen opinia<br \/>\nsa, mai aproape de adev\u0103r s-ar afla criticii lui Viktor Orb\u00e1n,<br \/>\nchiar dac\u0103 acesta nu poate fi descris exclusiv \u00een alb \u0219i negru.<\/p>\n<p>Votan\u021bii<br \/>\ns\u0103i sus\u021bin c\u0103 Ungaria nu poate fi prietena unei \u021b\u0103ri precum<br \/>\nUcraina, care asupre\u0219te comunitatea maghiar\u0103 de pe teritoriul ei.<br \/>\n\u0218i tot ei sus\u021bin c\u0103 Orb\u00e1n urm\u0103re\u0219te exclusiv interesele \u021b\u0103rii<br \/>\nsale \u0219i din acest motiv face anumite concesii Rusiei, pentru a avea<br \/>\nacces la petrol \u0219i gaze f\u0103r\u0103 de care economia \u021b\u0103rii sale ar da<br \/>\nfaliment, iar \u021bara ar fi cuprins\u0103 de haos. \u00cen sf\u00e2r\u0219it,<br \/>\nadversarii politici \u00eel acuz\u0103 de servilism fa\u021b\u0103 de Putin. Sorina<br \/>\nSoare explic\u0103:<\/p>\n<p><i>\u201eEu<br \/>\ncred c\u0103 este \u0219i foarte mult\u0103 strategie \u0219i pare c\u0103<br \/>\nUngaria nu-\u0219i poate permite o ruptur\u0103 complet\u0103 de Rusia, are<br \/>\nnevoie de resurse pe care altfel nu \u0219tim cine i le-ar asigura. Fiindc\u0103 Ungaria nu beneficiaz\u0103 de resurse naturale. Pe de<br \/>\nalt\u0103 parte, s\u0103 nu uit\u0103m, Orb\u00e1n era unul dintre cei mai critici<br \/>\natunci c\u00e2nd a fost depus\u0103 coroana la morm\u00e2ntul lui Imre Nagy \u00een<br \/>\n&#8217;89. Acum cred c\u0103 a uitat oarecum sau nu vrea s\u0103-\u0219i aminteasc\u0103. Iar dac\u0103 ne referim la cele relatate<br \/>\nde pres\u0103, inclusiv la discu\u021bia dintre ministrul de<br \/>\nexterne maghiar, P\u00e9ter Szijj\u00e1rt\u00f3, \u0219i Lavrov al Rusiei, exist\u0103 multe elemente care arat\u0103 c\u0103 Orb\u00e1n e totu\u0219i prea<br \/>\napropiat de Rusia\u201d<\/i>, sus\u021bine Sorina Soare.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"related-inline svelte-1t8qpgs\" data-gtrack='{\"event\":\"utm_click\",\"data\":{\"event_category\":\"article_related\"}}' href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/stiri-interne\/evenimente\/singurul-scenariu-in-care-sua-si-iranul-ar-putea-2520602.html\" title=\"Alt articol de interes pentru tine\"><span class=\"inline-title svelte-1t8qpgs\">Singurul scenariu \u00een care SUA \u0219i Iranul ar putea depune armele \u00een 2026 &#8211; Analiza unui expert rom\u00e2n \u00een Orientul Mijlociu<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<h2>Suspans p\u00e2n\u0103 la cap\u0103t<\/h2>\n<p>Pentru alegerile de duminic\u0103, 12 aprilie, TISZA<br \/>\nporne\u0219te aparent cu prima \u0219ans\u0103 \u00een Ungaria. Chiar \u0219i a\u0219a,<br \/>\nsuspansul se va men\u021bine p\u00e2n\u0103 spre orele nop\u021bii, mai ales c\u0103<br \/>\nsistemul de vot din Ungaria poate conduce la o situa\u021bie \u00een care un<br \/>\npartid c\u00e2\u0219tig\u0103 votul popular, dar nu ajunge la putere \u0219i nu poate<br \/>\nforma un guvern, dac\u0103 nu ob\u021bine o majoritate de dou\u0103 treimi.<br \/>\nAcesta ar fi scorul minim, consider\u0103 unii anali\u0219ti, pentru ca P\u00e9ter<br \/>\nMagyar, dac\u0103 ar fi s\u0103 c\u00e2\u0219tige, s\u0103 poat\u0103 trece la reforme<br \/>\nradicale \u0219i s\u0103 schimbe ceva.<\/p>\n<p>Nu<br \/>\n\u00een ultimul r\u00e2nd, a\u0219a cum s-a v\u0103zut la alegerile din Rom\u00e2nia,<br \/>\nsondajele preelectorale pot fi influen\u021bate de efectul<br \/>\nde dezirabilitate social\u0103, adic\u0103<br \/>\nde tendin\u021ba responden\u021bilor \u2013 sau al unora dintre ei &#8211; de a<br \/>\ndeclara ceea ce, \u00eentr-un anumit context, pare a fi dezirabil social.<\/p>\n<h2>\u201eSpirala t\u0103cerii\u201d \u0219i \u201evotantul timid\u201d<\/h2>\n<p>Un<br \/>\nalt detaliu care poate influen\u021ba alegerile \u0219i poate face ca<br \/>\nrezultatul final s\u0103 fie complet diferit de cel al sondajelor \u021bine<br \/>\nde a\u0219a-numita spiral\u0103 a t\u0103cerii, adic\u0103 tendin\u021ba unora dintre cei<br \/>\ncare iau parte la sondaje s\u0103 nu fie sinceri c\u00e2nd \u00ee\u0219i declar\u0103<br \/>\nop\u021biunile de vot, pentru a nu fi c\u0103dea \u00eentr-un anumit oprobiu<br \/>\npublic.<\/p>\n<p>Rom\u00e2nia,<br \/>\nde altfel, nu a fost singura \u021bar\u0103 \u00een care aceste efecte au f\u0103cut<br \/>\nca rezultatul de pe h\u00e2rtie din sondajele preelectorale s\u0103 difere de<br \/>\ncele final. \u00cen Statele Unite, politologii au vorbit despre ceea ce<br \/>\nau numit \u201eshy Trump voter\u201d (votantul timid al lui Trump, care \u00ee\u0219i<br \/>\nascunde simpatia pentru liderul de la Casa Alb\u0103), iar \u00een Marea<br \/>\nBritanie \u201eshy Tory voter\u201d  &#8211; votantul timid al conservatorilor).<\/p>\n<p><\/main><\/p>\n<footer class=\"svelte-t0js42\">\n<div class=\"related-wrap related-footer svelte-1t8qpgs\"><span class=\"related-label svelte-1t8qpgs\">Cite\u0219te \u0219i<\/span><a class=\"related svelte-1t8qpgs\" data-gtrack='{\"event\":\"utm_click\",\"data\":{\"event_category\":\"article_related\"}}' href=\"https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/stiri-externe\/viktor-orban-ar-putea-cere-anularea-alegerilor-in-2522007.html\" title=\"Alt articol de interes pentru tine\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"thumb svelte-1t8qpgs\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.adh.reperio.news\/image-f\/f40ebc1f-f9b1-406e-9be3-a968a65d796b\/index.jpeg\" alt loading=\"lazy\" width=\"80\" height=\"54\"><span class=\"title svelte-1t8qpgs\">Viktor Orb\u00e1n ar putea cere anularea alegerilor, \u00een cazul unei victorii a opozi\u021biei. Analist rom\u00e2n din Marea Britanie: \u201eS-ar putea inspira de la noi\u201d<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"meta svelte-t0js42\">\n<div class=\"authors svelte-t0js42\"><a href=\"\/author\/1694\" rel=\"author\" class=\"svelte-t0js42\">\u015etefan Lic\u0103<\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"tags svelte-12okeyl\"><span class=\"tags-label metaFont svelte-12okeyl\">Cite\u0219te mai multe despre<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"tags-list svelte-12okeyl\"><a href=\"\/tag\/alegeri\" title=\"Ultimele \u0219tiri despre alegeri\" class=\"tag-pill svelte-12okeyl\">alegeri<\/a><a href=\"\/tag\/viktor%20orban\" title=\"Ultimele \u0219tiri despre viktor orban\" class=\"tag-pill svelte-12okeyl\">viktor orban<\/a><a href=\"\/tag\/exclusiv\" title=\"Ultimele \u0219tiri despre exclusiv\" class=\"tag-pill svelte-12okeyl\">exclusiv<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><a class=\"moreFromCategory svelte-t0js42\" href=\"\/stiri-externe\" title=\"\u0218tiri Externe\">Mai multe din <strong class=\"svelte-t0js42\">\u0218tiri Externe<\/strong> \u203a<\/a><\/footer>\n<\/article>\n<p>[analyse_source url=&#8221;https:\/\/adevarul.ro\/stiri-externe\/viktor-orban-sau-peter-magyar-cine-ar-fi-mai-bine-2522139.html&#8221;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/cdn.adh.reperio.news\/image-c\/c32810e7-3b25-438f-9065-ba205cc7ef9e\/index.jpeg?p=f%3Djpeg%26w%3D1200%26h%3D630%26r%3Dcover&#8221;] Home \u0218tiri Externe Viktor Orb\u00e1n sau P\u00e9ter Magyar? Cine ar fi mai bine pentru Rom\u00e2nia s\u0103 c\u00e2\u0219tige: \u201eS\u0103 nu ne a\u0219tept\u0103m la o schimbare radical\u0103\u201d Vecinii no\u0219tri de la vest, ungurii, \u00ee\u0219i aleg viitorii conduc\u0103tori dintre Viktor Orb\u00e1n \u0219i P\u00e9ter Magyar, respectiv FIDESZ \u0219i TISZA. Politologul Sorina Soare, de la Universitatea din [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[89],"tags":[19,226],"class_list":["post-1878411","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-romania","tag-adevarul","tag-crawlmanager"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1878411","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1878411"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1878411\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1878411"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1878411"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1878411"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}