{"id":1846452,"date":"2026-03-25T17:38:12","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T14:38:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1846452"},"modified":"2026-03-25T17:38:12","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T14:38:12","slug":"georgia-an-alternative-trade-route","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1846452","title":{"rendered":"Georgia \u2013 An alternative trade route"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/69360593_6.jpg&#8221;]<\/p>\n<article class=\"sk6xmai\">\n<div class=\"content-area sa7l9jt s9mg977\">\n<section data-tracking-name=\"sharing-icons-inline\" class=\"c75t7t0 hh5424a in-line closed\">\n<div class=\"copy-button-wrapper closed\"><span class=\"svdcmki\">https:\/\/p.dw.com\/p\/5B3vW<\/span><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<figure class=\"s4bcs45\"><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/69360593_800.webp 50w, https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/69360593_801.webp 129w, https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/69360593_802.webp 352w, https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/69360593_803.webp 575w\" media=\"(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 575px)\" height=\"100\" width=\"100\" \/><figcaption class=\"c1oedowi lofg86o m4xla6a s16w0xvi rcjjkz7 w128axg5 b1fzgn0z\">For energy-rich Azerbaijan, higher oil prices in the wake of the Iran war are expected to generate an export windfall<small class=\"copyright c19ed66t ihwmx5 idu7i8u lxmvniw icns9en rcjjkz7 w128axg5 b1fzgn0z\">Image: Bulkin Sergey\/Russian Look\/IMAGO<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div data-tracking-skip=\"true\" data-tracking-name=\"rich-text\" class=\"c17j8gzx rc0m0op r1ebneao s198y7xq rich-text l1evdo4u blt0baw s16w0xvi rcjjkz7 w128axg5 b1fzgn0z\">\n<p>In the hours after the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/us-israel-war-with-iran\/t-76168615\">US and Israel began conducting joint strikes on Iran<\/a> on February 28, air traffic along\u00a0the normally busy east-west routes was forced into a narrow airspace corridor\u00a0over the South Caucasus.<\/p>\n<p>What is a new development in the skies has been building on the ground for some time. In recent years, the region has gained attention as a key link in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. Also known as the Middle Corridor, it serves to connect Europe and China whilst bypassing Iran and Russia via Central Asia and the South Caucasus.<\/p>\n<p>Now, the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran\/t-18996175\">Iran<\/a> war has cast the Middle Corridor&#8217;s significance into even sharper focus. By shutting the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/strait-of-hormuz\/t-76193780\">Strait of Hormuz<\/a>, a route that handles roughly <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bruegel.org\/first-glance\/how-will-iran-conflict-hit-european-energy-markets\" title=\"External link \u2014 20% of global oil and liquified natural gas\">20% of global oil and liquified natural gas<\/a>(LNG) shipments, Iran has disrupted global energy flows.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;For this region, this is an opportunity within this crisis,\u201d says Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Center in Yerevan, Armenia. &#8220;The Middle Corridor is now the only route left standing, the only viable path in terms of trade and transport.&#8221;\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2>A key link in the Middle Corridor<\/h2>\n<p>What is more, a major shipping artery through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Red Sea, which carries 12%\u00a0of the world&#8217;s trade, has repeatedly been <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/houthi-attacks-on-ships-disrupt-global-trade\/a-67967525\" title=\"External link \u2014 disrupted by the Iranian-linked Houthi militia\">disrupted by the Iranian-linked Houthi militia<\/a>in Yemen. An alternative route around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa adds more than <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/blogs\/articles\/2024\/03\/07\/red-sea-attacks-disrupt-global-trade\" title=\"External link \u2014 10 days to the Asia-Europe\">10 days to the Asia-Europe<\/a>route.<\/p>\n<p>The Middle Corridor \u2014\u00a0the shortest geographical route between Europe and China \u2014\u00a0is intended to move Chinese goods along with critical minerals and energy products from Central Asia to Europe. Both the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/european-union-eu\/t-17440066\">EU<\/a> and <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/china\/t-18480887\">China<\/a>\u00a0have already pledged billions\u00a0to upgrade ports, railways\u00a0and roads along the route.<\/p>\n<p>Cargo volumes along the corridor have quadrupled since 2022, the year Russia launched its\u00a0full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Though it still only carries a fraction of Europe-Asia trade, the <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/region\/eca\/publication\/middle-trade-and-transport-corridor\" title=\"External link \u2014 World Bank\">World Bank<\/a>estimates that trade volumes could reach a total of 11 million tons by 2030.<\/p>\n<h2>Region stands to gain strategic value<\/h2>\n<p>Even beyond the current conflict, the Middle Corridor is likely to gain more momentum in the coming years.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;In the mid to long term, the South Caucasus and the Middle Corridor are going to be one of the main routes connecting the EU and China alongside maritime routes,&#8221;\u00a0says Kornely Kakachia, a politics professor in Tbilisi. For Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia, this shift would elevate their role as pivotal transit states.<\/p>\n<div class=\"vjs-wrapper embed big\">\n<h2 aria-label=\"Embedded video \u2014 Georgia \u2013 An alternative trade route\" class=\"headline\">Georgia \u2013 An alternative trade route<\/h2>\n<p><video id=\"video-64838628\" controls playsinline preload=\"none\" poster=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mNkYAAAAAYAAjCB0C8AAAAASUVORK5CYII=\" data-id=\"64838628\" data-posterurl=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/64838443_605.webp\" data-duration=\"05:46\"><source src=\"https:\/\/hlsvod.dw.com\/i\/dwtv_video\/flv\/me\/me230228_Georgia_,AVC_480x270,AVC_512x288,AVC_640x360,AVC_960x540,AVC_1280x720,AVC_1920x1080,.mp4.csmil\/master.m3u8\" type=\"application\/x-mpegURL\" \/><\/video><\/div>\n<p>For energy-rich Azerbaijan, the Iran war could also bring short term gains. Higher oil prices would mean an export windfall for the country, which analysts have estimated could reach as much as <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/emissary\/2026\/03\/armenia-azerbaijan-iran-war-fallout\" title=\"External link \u2014 $500 to $600 million extra a month\">$500 to $600 million extra a month<\/a>for the country.<\/p>\n<p>Hikmet Hajiyev, chief foreign policy adviser to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, told Euronews\u00a0that Azerbaijan was increasing its shipments of natural gas to make up for shipments from the Gulf amid\u00a0the Iran war.<\/p>\n<p>Europe currently receives around 4%\u00a0of its natural gas from Azerbaijan, equivalent to\u00a012.8 billion cubic meters of gas. This is slated to increase to <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/policies\/16134-european-union-and-azerbaijan-mou-to-increase-energy-cooperation\" title=\"External link \u2014 20 billion cubic meters\">20 billion cubic meters<\/a>by 2027.<\/p>\n<h2>Conflict risks instability in the region<\/h2>\n<p>But war is also detrimental to\u00a0business. &#8220;In order for the Middle Corridor to be successful, it needs stability from China to the European Union and around the South Caucasus,&#8221;\u00a0says Kakachia.<\/p>\n<p>Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia have all taken a neutral stance in the conflict. But Iranian officials have long criticized Azerbaijan for its strong economic links with Israel.<\/p>\n<p>In 2025, Israel received 46.4% of its oil from Azerbaijan\u00a0through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. In return, Azerbaijan receives the majority of its military weaponry from Israel.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Azerbaijan&#8217;s deepening ties with Israel were always seen as a threat from the Iranian side,\u201d says Mahammad Mammadov, research fellow at the Topchubashov Center in Baku. &#8220;But on the other side, Azerbaijan-Iran relations were deepening in recent years.\u00a0The sides were trying to compartmentalize.&#8221;\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Cooperation between the two countries primarily focused on building a trade corridor between Iran and Russia.<\/p>\n<p>This balance was disrupted on March 5, when four Iranian drones struck an airport in Azerbaijan&#8217;s exclave Nakhchivan. Azerbaijan&#8217;s President Aliyev called the strike a &#8220;terrorist act,&#8221;\u00a0while officials threatened retaliatory strikes, and briefly suspended freight traffic from Iran.<\/p>\n<p>The escalation was ultimately defused after a direct call between the leaders\u00a0of Iran and Azerbaijan. Still, while &#8220;relations are back to normal, the incident created lots of uncertainty,&#8221;\u00a0says Mammadov.<\/p>\n<p>Azerbaijani officials also claimed to have\u00a0thwarted sabotage attempts\u00a0by Iran&#8217;s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Crops (IRGC). Among the alleged targets were the BTC pipeline and the Israeli embassy in Azerbaijan.<\/p>\n<p>A prolonged conflict could\u00a0endanger a flagship Middle Corridor infrastructure project \u2014\u00a0the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP.<\/p>\n<p>Agreed to as part of a <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/armenia-azerbaijan-sign-historic-us-brokered-peace-deal\/a-73567746\">Trump-brokered peace deal<\/a>\u00a0between Armenia and Azerbaijan last August, it foresees a 43-kilometer road and rail corridor through Armenia that would connect Azerbaijan to its exclave Nakhchivan and Turkey.<\/p>\n<p>By reopening the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan \u2014\u00a0shut for decades because of the countries&#8217; conflict over <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/nagorno-karabakh\/t-66863207\">Nagorno-Karabakh<\/a>\u00a0\u2014\u00a0TRIPP would create a new logistics corridor alongside existing routes that run through Azerbaijan and Georgia.<\/p>\n<p>The United States, which views\u00a0TRIPP as a supply chain for critical minerals, has <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/us-armenia-sign-nuclear-deal-during-vance-visit\/a-75885494\">heavily supported the project<\/a>.\u00a0It is supposed to be built and managed by a US-led consortium.<\/p>\n<div class=\"vjs-wrapper embed big\">\n<h2 aria-label=\"Embedded video \u2014 Trump seals peace deal between Armenia, Azerbaijan\" class=\"headline\">Trump seals peace deal between Armenia, Azerbaijan<\/h2>\n<p><video id=\"video-73583931\" controls playsinline preload=\"none\" poster=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mNkYAAAAAYAAjCB0C8AAAAASUVORK5CYII=\" data-id=\"73583931\" data-posterurl=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/73581892_605.webp\" data-duration=\"03:19\"><source src=\"https:\/\/hlsvod.dw.com\/i\/dwtv_video\/flv\/je\/je20250809_QAgreement_,AVC_480x270,AVC_512x288,AVC_640x360,AVC_960x540,AVC_1280x720,AVC_1920x1080,.mp4.csmil\/master.m3u8\" type=\"application\/x-mpegURL\" \/><\/video><\/div>\n<p>But\u00a0<a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/how-will-iran-respond-to-trump-route-in-south-caucasus\/a-73613094\">Iran has been skeptical<\/a>\u00a0of Washington&#8217;s involvement in the project, which will run immediately next to Armenia&#8217;s border with Iran. Last summer, an\u00a0adviser to the former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, went as far as to say\u00a0that the route would be the &#8220;grave of Donald Trump&#8217;s mercenaries.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>These concerns, however, should not be overblown,\u00a0says Giragosian, pointing out\u00a0that\u00a0&#8220;in military terms, there is nothing yet to target.&#8221;\u00a0Construction on TRIPP is not slated to begin until the second half of 2026.<\/p>\n<h2>What Baku wants<\/h2>\n<p>Ultimately, says Kakachia, the South Caucasus has a strong interest in maintaining peace and security in the broader region.<\/p>\n<p>Chief among those seeking stability is Azerbaijan. According to Mammadov, &#8220;Azerbaijan doesn&#8217;t want Iran to collapse \u2014\u00a0or this war to continue longer \u2014\u00a0because it tips the balance in favor of more uncertainty and miscalculation.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>A collapse would &#8220;open\u00a0Pandora&#8217;s box&#8221;\u00a0\u2014\u00a0triggering economic instability and potentially an influx of refugees from a country where over <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran-a-mosaic-state-rife-with-internal-conflicts\/a-75729983\">20 million ethnic Azeris<\/a>\u00a0currently live.<\/p>\n<p>Instead, Mammadov argues, the most favorable scenario for Baku would be a weakened Iran that nonetheless remains under its current theocratic regime. As long as Tehran is seen as a pariah, Azerbaijan retains its geopolitical and economic value as a stable link between East and West.<\/p>\n<p><em>Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<div data-tracking-skip=\"true\" data-tracking-name=\"rich-text\" class=\"c17j8gzx rc0m0op r1ebneao s198y7xq rich-text l1evdo4u blt0baw s16w0xvi rcjjkz7 w128axg5 b1fzgn0z\">\n<p>In the hours after the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/us-israel-war-with-iran\/t-76168615\">US and Israel began conducting joint strikes on Iran<\/a> on February 28, air traffic along\u00a0the normally busy east-west routes was forced into a narrow airspace corridor\u00a0over the South Caucasus.<\/p>\n<p>What is a new development in the skies has been building on the ground for some time. In recent years, the region has gained attention as a key link in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. Also known as the Middle Corridor, it serves to connect Europe and China whilst bypassing Iran and Russia via Central Asia and the South Caucasus.<\/p>\n<p>Now, the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran\/t-18996175\">Iran<\/a> war has cast the Middle Corridor&#8217;s significance into even sharper focus. By shutting the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/strait-of-hormuz\/t-76193780\">Strait of Hormuz<\/a>, a route that handles roughly <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bruegel.org\/first-glance\/how-will-iran-conflict-hit-european-energy-markets\" title=\"External link \u2014 20% of global oil and liquified natural gas\">20% of global oil and liquified natural gas<\/a>(LNG) shipments, Iran has disrupted global energy flows.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;For this region, this is an opportunity within this crisis,\u201d says Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Center in Yerevan, Armenia. &#8220;The Middle Corridor is now the only route left standing, the only viable path in terms of trade and transport.&#8221;\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2>A key link in the Middle Corridor<\/h2>\n<p>What is more, a major shipping artery through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Red Sea, which carries 12%\u00a0of the world&#8217;s trade, has repeatedly been <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/houthi-attacks-on-ships-disrupt-global-trade\/a-67967525\" title=\"External link \u2014 disrupted by the Iranian-linked Houthi militia\">disrupted by the Iranian-linked Houthi militia<\/a>in Yemen. An alternative route around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa adds more than <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/blogs\/articles\/2024\/03\/07\/red-sea-attacks-disrupt-global-trade\" title=\"External link \u2014 10 days to the Asia-Europe\">10 days to the Asia-Europe<\/a>route.<\/p>\n<p>The Middle Corridor \u2014\u00a0the shortest geographical route between Europe and China \u2014\u00a0is intended to move Chinese goods along with critical minerals and energy products from Central Asia to Europe. Both the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/european-union-eu\/t-17440066\">EU<\/a> and <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/china\/t-18480887\">China<\/a>\u00a0have already pledged billions\u00a0to upgrade ports, railways\u00a0and roads along the route.<\/p>\n<p>Cargo volumes along the corridor have quadrupled since 2022, the year Russia launched its\u00a0full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Though it still only carries a fraction of Europe-Asia trade, the <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/region\/eca\/publication\/middle-trade-and-transport-corridor\" title=\"External link \u2014 World Bank\">World Bank<\/a>estimates that trade volumes could reach a total of 11 million tons by 2030.<\/p>\n<h2>Region stands to gain strategic value<\/h2>\n<p>Even beyond the current conflict, the Middle Corridor is likely to gain more momentum in the coming years.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;In the mid to long term, the South Caucasus and the Middle Corridor are going to be one of the main routes connecting the EU and China alongside maritime routes,&#8221;\u00a0says Kornely Kakachia, a politics professor in Tbilisi. For Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia, this shift would elevate their role as pivotal transit states.<\/p>\n<div class=\"vjs-wrapper embed big\">\n<h2 aria-label=\"Embedded video \u2014 Georgia \u2013 An alternative trade route\" class=\"headline\">Georgia \u2013 An alternative trade route<\/h2>\n<p><video id=\"video-64838628\" controls playsinline preload=\"none\" poster=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mNkYAAAAAYAAjCB0C8AAAAASUVORK5CYII=\" data-id=\"64838628\" data-posterurl=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/64838443_605.webp\" data-duration=\"05:46\"><source src=\"https:\/\/hlsvod.dw.com\/i\/dwtv_video\/flv\/me\/me230228_Georgia_,AVC_480x270,AVC_512x288,AVC_640x360,AVC_960x540,AVC_1280x720,AVC_1920x1080,.mp4.csmil\/master.m3u8\" type=\"application\/x-mpegURL\" \/><\/video><\/div>\n<p>For energy-rich Azerbaijan, the Iran war could also bring short term gains. Higher oil prices would mean an export windfall for the country, which analysts have estimated could reach as much as <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/emissary\/2026\/03\/armenia-azerbaijan-iran-war-fallout\" title=\"External link \u2014 $500 to $600 million extra a month\">$500 to $600 million extra a month<\/a>for the country.<\/p>\n<p>Hikmet Hajiyev, chief foreign policy adviser to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, told Euronews\u00a0that Azerbaijan was increasing its shipments of natural gas to make up for shipments from the Gulf amid\u00a0the Iran war.<\/p>\n<p>Europe currently receives around 4%\u00a0of its natural gas from Azerbaijan, equivalent to\u00a012.8 billion cubic meters of gas. This is slated to increase to <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/policies\/16134-european-union-and-azerbaijan-mou-to-increase-energy-cooperation\" title=\"External link \u2014 20 billion cubic meters\">20 billion cubic meters<\/a>by 2027.<\/p>\n<h2>Conflict risks instability in the region<\/h2>\n<p>But war is also detrimental to\u00a0business. &#8220;In order for the Middle Corridor to be successful, it needs stability from China to the European Union and around the South Caucasus,&#8221;\u00a0says Kakachia.<\/p>\n<p>Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia have all taken a neutral stance in the conflict. But Iranian officials have long criticized Azerbaijan for its strong economic links with Israel.<\/p>\n<p>In 2025, Israel received 46.4% of its oil from Azerbaijan\u00a0through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. In return, Azerbaijan receives the majority of its military weaponry from Israel.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Azerbaijan&#8217;s deepening ties with Israel were always seen as a threat from the Iranian side,\u201d says Mahammad Mammadov, research fellow at the Topchubashov Center in Baku. &#8220;But on the other side, Azerbaijan-Iran relations were deepening in recent years.\u00a0The sides were trying to compartmentalize.&#8221;\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Cooperation between the two countries primarily focused on building a trade corridor between Iran and Russia.<\/p>\n<p>This balance was disrupted on March 5, when four Iranian drones struck an airport in Azerbaijan&#8217;s exclave Nakhchivan. Azerbaijan&#8217;s President Aliyev called the strike a &#8220;terrorist act,&#8221;\u00a0while officials threatened retaliatory strikes, and briefly suspended freight traffic from Iran.<\/p>\n<p>The escalation was ultimately defused after a direct call between the leaders\u00a0of Iran and Azerbaijan. Still, while &#8220;relations are back to normal, the incident created lots of uncertainty,&#8221;\u00a0says Mammadov.<\/p>\n<p>Azerbaijani officials also claimed to have\u00a0thwarted sabotage attempts\u00a0by Iran&#8217;s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Crops (IRGC). Among the alleged targets were the BTC pipeline and the Israeli embassy in Azerbaijan.<\/p>\n<p>A prolonged conflict could\u00a0endanger a flagship Middle Corridor infrastructure project \u2014\u00a0the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP.<\/p>\n<p>Agreed to as part of a <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/armenia-azerbaijan-sign-historic-us-brokered-peace-deal\/a-73567746\">Trump-brokered peace deal<\/a>\u00a0between Armenia and Azerbaijan last August, it foresees a 43-kilometer road and rail corridor through Armenia that would connect Azerbaijan to its exclave Nakhchivan and Turkey.<\/p>\n<p>By reopening the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan \u2014\u00a0shut for decades because of the countries&#8217; conflict over <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/nagorno-karabakh\/t-66863207\">Nagorno-Karabakh<\/a>\u00a0\u2014\u00a0TRIPP would create a new logistics corridor alongside existing routes that run through Azerbaijan and Georgia.<\/p>\n<p>The United States, which views\u00a0TRIPP as a supply chain for critical minerals, has <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/us-armenia-sign-nuclear-deal-during-vance-visit\/a-75885494\">heavily supported the project<\/a>.\u00a0It is supposed to be built and managed by a US-led consortium.<\/p>\n<div class=\"vjs-wrapper embed big\">\n<h2 aria-label=\"Embedded video \u2014 Trump seals peace deal between Armenia, Azerbaijan\" class=\"headline\">Trump seals peace deal between Armenia, Azerbaijan<\/h2>\n<p><video id=\"video-73583931\" controls playsinline preload=\"none\" poster=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mNkYAAAAAYAAjCB0C8AAAAASUVORK5CYII=\" data-id=\"73583931\" data-posterurl=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/73581892_605.webp\" data-duration=\"03:19\"><source src=\"https:\/\/hlsvod.dw.com\/i\/dwtv_video\/flv\/je\/je20250809_QAgreement_,AVC_480x270,AVC_512x288,AVC_640x360,AVC_960x540,AVC_1280x720,AVC_1920x1080,.mp4.csmil\/master.m3u8\" type=\"application\/x-mpegURL\" \/><\/video><\/div>\n<p>But\u00a0<a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/how-will-iran-respond-to-trump-route-in-south-caucasus\/a-73613094\">Iran has been skeptical<\/a>\u00a0of Washington&#8217;s involvement in the project, which will run immediately next to Armenia&#8217;s border with Iran. Last summer, an\u00a0adviser to the former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, went as far as to say\u00a0that the route would be the &#8220;grave of Donald Trump&#8217;s mercenaries.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>These concerns, however, should not be overblown,\u00a0says Giragosian, pointing out\u00a0that\u00a0&#8220;in military terms, there is nothing yet to target.&#8221;\u00a0Construction on TRIPP is not slated to begin until the second half of 2026.<\/p>\n<h2>What Baku wants<\/h2>\n<p>Ultimately, says Kakachia, the South Caucasus has a strong interest in maintaining peace and security in the broader region.<\/p>\n<p>Chief among those seeking stability is Azerbaijan. According to Mammadov, &#8220;Azerbaijan doesn&#8217;t want Iran to collapse \u2014\u00a0or this war to continue longer \u2014\u00a0because it tips the balance in favor of more uncertainty and miscalculation.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>A collapse would &#8220;open\u00a0Pandora&#8217;s box&#8221;\u00a0\u2014\u00a0triggering economic instability and potentially an influx of refugees from a country where over <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran-a-mosaic-state-rife-with-internal-conflicts\/a-75729983\">20 million ethnic Azeris<\/a>\u00a0currently live.<\/p>\n<p>Instead, Mammadov argues, the most favorable scenario for Baku would be a weakened Iran that nonetheless remains under its current theocratic regime. As long as Tehran is seen as a pariah, Azerbaijan retains its geopolitical and economic value as a stable link between East and West.<\/p>\n<p><em>Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>In the hours after the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/us-israel-war-with-iran\/t-76168615\">US and Israel began conducting joint strikes on Iran<\/a> on February 28, air traffic along\u00a0the normally busy east-west routes was forced into a narrow airspace corridor\u00a0over the South Caucasus.<\/p>\n<p>What is a new development in the skies has been building on the ground for some time. In recent years, the region has gained attention as a key link in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. Also known as the Middle Corridor, it serves to connect Europe and China whilst bypassing Iran and Russia via Central Asia and the South Caucasus.<\/p>\n<p>Now, the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran\/t-18996175\">Iran<\/a> war has cast the Middle Corridor&#8217;s significance into even sharper focus. By shutting the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/strait-of-hormuz\/t-76193780\">Strait of Hormuz<\/a>, a route that handles roughly <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bruegel.org\/first-glance\/how-will-iran-conflict-hit-european-energy-markets\" title=\"External link \u2014 20% of global oil and liquified natural gas\">20% of global oil and liquified natural gas<\/a>(LNG) shipments, Iran has disrupted global energy flows.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;For this region, this is an opportunity within this crisis,\u201d says Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Center in Yerevan, Armenia. &#8220;The Middle Corridor is now the only route left standing, the only viable path in terms of trade and transport.&#8221;\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>What is more, a major shipping artery through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Red Sea, which carries 12%\u00a0of the world&#8217;s trade, has repeatedly been <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/houthi-attacks-on-ships-disrupt-global-trade\/a-67967525\" title=\"External link \u2014 disrupted by the Iranian-linked Houthi militia\">disrupted by the Iranian-linked Houthi militia<\/a>in Yemen. An alternative route around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa adds more than <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/blogs\/articles\/2024\/03\/07\/red-sea-attacks-disrupt-global-trade\" title=\"External link \u2014 10 days to the Asia-Europe\">10 days to the Asia-Europe<\/a>route.<\/p>\n<p>The Middle Corridor \u2014\u00a0the shortest geographical route between Europe and China \u2014\u00a0is intended to move Chinese goods along with critical minerals and energy products from Central Asia to Europe. Both the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/european-union-eu\/t-17440066\">EU<\/a> and <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/china\/t-18480887\">China<\/a>\u00a0have already pledged billions\u00a0to upgrade ports, railways\u00a0and roads along the route.<\/p>\n<p>Cargo volumes along the corridor have quadrupled since 2022, the year Russia launched its\u00a0full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Though it still only carries a fraction of Europe-Asia trade, the <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/region\/eca\/publication\/middle-trade-and-transport-corridor\" title=\"External link \u2014 World Bank\">World Bank<\/a>estimates that trade volumes could reach a total of 11 million tons by 2030.<\/p>\n<p>Even beyond the current conflict, the Middle Corridor is likely to gain more momentum in the coming years.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;In the mid to long term, the South Caucasus and the Middle Corridor are going to be one of the main routes connecting the EU and China alongside maritime routes,&#8221;\u00a0says Kornely Kakachia, a politics professor in Tbilisi. For Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia, this shift would elevate their role as pivotal transit states.<\/p>\n<p class=\"vjs-no-js\">To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that <a href=\"https:\/\/videojs.com\/html5-video-support\/\" target=\"_blank\">supports HTML5 video<\/a><\/p>\n<p>For energy-rich Azerbaijan, the Iran war could also bring short term gains. Higher oil prices would mean an export windfall for the country, which analysts have estimated could reach as much as <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/emissary\/2026\/03\/armenia-azerbaijan-iran-war-fallout\" title=\"External link \u2014 $500 to $600 million extra a month\">$500 to $600 million extra a month<\/a>for the country.<\/p>\n<p>Hikmet Hajiyev, chief foreign policy adviser to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, told Euronews\u00a0that Azerbaijan was increasing its shipments of natural gas to make up for shipments from the Gulf amid\u00a0the Iran war.<\/p>\n<p>Europe currently receives around 4%\u00a0of its natural gas from Azerbaijan, equivalent to\u00a012.8 billion cubic meters of gas. This is slated to increase to <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/policies\/16134-european-union-and-azerbaijan-mou-to-increase-energy-cooperation\" title=\"External link \u2014 20 billion cubic meters\">20 billion cubic meters<\/a>by 2027.<\/p>\n<p>But war is also detrimental to\u00a0business. &#8220;In order for the Middle Corridor to be successful, it needs stability from China to the European Union and around the South Caucasus,&#8221;\u00a0says Kakachia.<\/p>\n<p>Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia have all taken a neutral stance in the conflict. But Iranian officials have long criticized Azerbaijan for its strong economic links with Israel.<\/p>\n<p>In 2025, Israel received 46.4% of its oil from Azerbaijan\u00a0through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. In return, Azerbaijan receives the majority of its military weaponry from Israel.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Azerbaijan&#8217;s deepening ties with Israel were always seen as a threat from the Iranian side,\u201d says Mahammad Mammadov, research fellow at the Topchubashov Center in Baku. &#8220;But on the other side, Azerbaijan-Iran relations were deepening in recent years.\u00a0The sides were trying to compartmentalize.&#8221;\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Cooperation between the two countries primarily focused on building a trade corridor between Iran and Russia.<\/p>\n<p>This balance was disrupted on March 5, when four Iranian drones struck an airport in Azerbaijan&#8217;s exclave Nakhchivan. Azerbaijan&#8217;s President Aliyev called the strike a &#8220;terrorist act,&#8221;\u00a0while officials threatened retaliatory strikes, and briefly suspended freight traffic from Iran.<\/p>\n<p>The escalation was ultimately defused after a direct call between the leaders\u00a0of Iran and Azerbaijan. Still, while &#8220;relations are back to normal, the incident created lots of uncertainty,&#8221;\u00a0says Mammadov.<\/p>\n<p>Azerbaijani officials also claimed to have\u00a0thwarted sabotage attempts\u00a0by Iran&#8217;s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Crops (IRGC). Among the alleged targets were the BTC pipeline and the Israeli embassy in Azerbaijan.<\/p>\n<p>A prolonged conflict could\u00a0endanger a flagship Middle Corridor infrastructure project \u2014\u00a0the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP.<\/p>\n<p>Agreed to as part of a <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/armenia-azerbaijan-sign-historic-us-brokered-peace-deal\/a-73567746\">Trump-brokered peace deal<\/a>\u00a0between Armenia and Azerbaijan last August, it foresees a 43-kilometer road and rail corridor through Armenia that would connect Azerbaijan to its exclave Nakhchivan and Turkey.<\/p>\n<p>By reopening the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan \u2014\u00a0shut for decades because of the countries&#8217; conflict over <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/nagorno-karabakh\/t-66863207\">Nagorno-Karabakh<\/a>\u00a0\u2014\u00a0TRIPP would create a new logistics corridor alongside existing routes that run through Azerbaijan and Georgia.<\/p>\n<p>The United States, which views\u00a0TRIPP as a supply chain for critical minerals, has <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/us-armenia-sign-nuclear-deal-during-vance-visit\/a-75885494\">heavily supported the project<\/a>.\u00a0It is supposed to be built and managed by a US-led consortium.<\/p>\n<p class=\"vjs-no-js\">To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that <a href=\"https:\/\/videojs.com\/html5-video-support\/\" target=\"_blank\">supports HTML5 video<\/a><\/p>\n<p>But\u00a0<a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/how-will-iran-respond-to-trump-route-in-south-caucasus\/a-73613094\">Iran has been skeptical<\/a>\u00a0of Washington&#8217;s involvement in the project, which will run immediately next to Armenia&#8217;s border with Iran. Last summer, an\u00a0adviser to the former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, went as far as to say\u00a0that the route would be the &#8220;grave of Donald Trump&#8217;s mercenaries.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>These concerns, however, should not be overblown,\u00a0says Giragosian, pointing out\u00a0that\u00a0&#8220;in military terms, there is nothing yet to target.&#8221;\u00a0Construction on TRIPP is not slated to begin until the second half of 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Ultimately, says Kakachia, the South Caucasus has a strong interest in maintaining peace and security in the broader region.<\/p>\n<p>Chief among those seeking stability is Azerbaijan. According to Mammadov, &#8220;Azerbaijan doesn&#8217;t want Iran to collapse \u2014\u00a0or this war to continue longer \u2014\u00a0because it tips the balance in favor of more uncertainty and miscalculation.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>A collapse would &#8220;open\u00a0Pandora&#8217;s box&#8221;\u00a0\u2014\u00a0triggering economic instability and potentially an influx of refugees from a country where over <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran-a-mosaic-state-rife-with-internal-conflicts\/a-75729983\">20 million ethnic Azeris<\/a>\u00a0currently live.<\/p>\n<p>Instead, Mammadov argues, the most favorable scenario for Baku would be a weakened Iran that nonetheless remains under its current theocratic regime. As long as Tehran is seen as a pariah, Azerbaijan retains its geopolitical and economic value as a stable link between East and West.<\/p>\n<p><em>Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru<\/em><\/p>\n<p>[analyse_source url=&#8221;https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran-war-boosts-strategic-significance-of-south-caucasus\/a-76518386&#8243;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/69360593_6.jpg&#8221;] https:\/\/p.dw.com\/p\/5B3vW For energy-rich Azerbaijan, higher oil prices in the wake of the Iran war are expected to generate an export windfallImage: Bulkin Sergey\/Russian Look\/IMAGO In the hours after the US and Israel began conducting joint strikes on Iran on February 28, air traffic along\u00a0the normally busy east-west routes was forced into a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[226,74],"class_list":["post-1846452","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","tag-crawlmanager","tag-dw-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1846452","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1846452"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1846452\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1846452"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1846452"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1846452"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}