{"id":1845900,"date":"2026-03-25T13:30:54","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T10:30:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1845900"},"modified":"2026-03-25T13:30:54","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T10:30:54","slug":"does-the-lakers-recent-win-streak-make-them-a-contender-what-the-numbers-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1845900","title":{"rendered":"Does the Lakers\u2019 recent win streak make them a contender? What the numbers say"},"content":{"rendered":"
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ORLANDO, Fla. \u2014 They did it again.<\/p>\n

With two seconds left in Orlando on Saturday and trailing by two points, the Los Angeles Lakers managed to find Luke Kennard standing by himself at the 3-point line on a baseline out-of-bounds play, from which point the NBA\u2019s leading 3-point shooter calmly deposited in the go-ahead points<\/a> to allow his team to leave with a 105-104 win.<\/p>\n

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As Lakers fans undoubtedly know, that scene has hardly been uncommon the past two years. While L.A.\u2019s late-game mojo didn\u2019t carry over into Detroit on Monday, the Lakers are an astounding 21-7 in games decided by five points or fewer this season and 22-7 in games NBA.com defines as \u201cclutch\u201d (games that were within five points in the last five minutes) after going 23-16 in similar games a year earlier.<\/p>\n

The Lakers\u2019 recent nine-game winning streak, in particular, got a big narrative boost thanks to a pair of unlikely clutch wins. Look, 7-2 in a tough stretch of schedule is nice, but nine straight is news<\/em>. Fittingly, the Lakers won one game where they successfully intentionally missed a free throw at the end (Austin Reaves\u2019s perfect plunk off the front rim<\/a> against Denver that allowed him to make a game-tying shot) and another one where they unsuccessfully <\/em>intentionally missed a free throw (Deandre Ayton\u2019s line drive caromed straight into the floor<\/a> and to Orlando seconds before Kennard\u2019s heroics).<\/p>\n

So yes, the Lakers are an odd team, much as they were a year ago. They have an A-list superstar in his prime and an all-time legend who still delivers, and surround it all with another 20-point scorer in Reaves and the pedigree of being one of the league\u2019s marquee franchises.<\/p>\n

On the other hand \u2026 they just haven\u2019t been that good for most of the year. The Lakers are 46-26 entering Wednesday\u2019s visit to Indiana, but have the point differential of a team that\u2019s 39-33 \u2014 a record that would only be seventh in the West and tied for 14th\u00a0in the entire NBA.<\/p>\n

Injuries have been part of the story \u2014 somehow, some way, Jake LaRavia is second on this team in total minutes \u2014 but the Lakers aren\u2019t the only team in the NBA to have a player miss a game. Their three difference makers have missed 69 games between them, but many of their rivals in the standings can tell similar sob stories.<\/p>\n

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Despite the meh scoring differential, the Lakers have unquestionably forced us to think of them as a postseason force of late. They are once again tracking to be the third seed in the West, and with better underlying numbers than a year ago, when they won 50 games with the league\u2019s 14th-best net rating at just +1.2 a game.<\/p>\n

Moreover, the recent run of success feels a lot less fluky than some of Los Angeles\u2019 early-season escapes. The Lakers are only 25-19 in \u201cnon-crunch-time\u201d games this year, which is usually a better indicator of a team\u2019s quality and thus a not-great one for L.A.\u2019s postseason viability, but nearly half the wins have been since the All-Star break.<\/p>\n

In fact, the recent non-clutch games may be a much better reason to believe in Los Angeles\u2019 legitimacy than the Houdini acts against Denver or Orlando. While the nine-game winning streak was greased by a couple of unlikely, fantastic finishes that may be hard to conjure up on demand, the Lakers are also 10-1 in their last 11 non-crunch time games. What that means, basically, is that they are winning games easily quite often, and rarely losing the same way \u2014 the polar opposite of where they were the first half of the season, and the biggest predictive \u201ctell\u201d of a team\u2019s true quality.<\/p>\n

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Since getting pummeled by Boston 111-89 in their second game out of the All-Star break, the Lakers have not only won the non-crunch games, but won them against good teams. This is an important distinction, as we\u2019ve seen the last-season schedule distort many other teams\u2019 results (greetings, Hawks fans!), which are padded by routs of the league\u2019s eight shameless tankers.<\/p>\n

The Lakers, however, haven\u2019t been fattening up on the underclass. The Sacramento Kings and the Chicago Bulls are the only two teams they\u2019ve played in this stretch that have given up on the season. L.A.\u2019s stretch of non-clutch wins includes a pair in Houston, one at Miami, and surprisingly easy home wins against the New York Knicks and the Minnesota Timberwolves. Since that game against Boston, they have yet to lose by more than seven points.<\/p>\n

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I\u2019m dancing around the real topic here, so let\u2019s take a more direct line: These results are pretty important as far as the \u201cAre they a contender?\u201d<\/em> question that hangs over the Lakers, for this season and as they plan their future.<\/p>\n

On multiple levels, their recent run of play has turned a hard \u201cno\u201d into a \u201cmaybe?\u201d<\/p>\n

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Let\u2019s set aside for a minute the fact that the top two teams in the West have been playing at a god level for the last month and look utterly unstoppable, and consider the Lakers against the historic norms required for contention.<\/p>\n

Long-time readers are familiar with me saying this, but I\u2019ll go ahead and say it again: If you aren\u2019t one of the top-three seeds and haven\u2019t won at least 52 games, your odds of winning a championship are infinitesimally small.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve had only one of the last 48 champions meet that criteria (the 1996 Houston Rockets), and with at least 10 playoff teams in each of those seasons that were below my cut line, it means any individual team in this bucket is about a 1-in-400 proposition historically.<\/p>\n

Thus, the goal for any wannabe contender is to finish the regular season outside that bucket. In fact, three weeks ago, I wrote dismissively<\/a> of the Lakers\u2019 chances for that very reason.<\/p>\n

The win streak changed that trajectory. Historically, the part about \u201cwinning at least 52 games\u201d is important \u2014 top-three seeds with fewer than 52 wins have a long, proud history of getting thrashed in the playoffs, including a preponderance of the first-round upsets involving second and third seeds. Astute readers will note that the list includes last year\u2019s L.A. quad, a No. 3 seed but one with just 50 wins, and one that was excused in five games by Minnesota in the first round.<\/p>\n

Welp \u2026 after winning nine straight in a tough stretch of schedule, the Lakers have suddenly banked 46 wins, which means six more gets them to the magical 52 threshold. From here, the road to 52 doesn\u2019t seem difficult \u2014 the team has five games left against tankers (including the upcoming Murderer\u2019s Row of Indiana-Brooklyn-Washington) and six at home. While it also plays the mighty Oklahoma City Thunder twice, L.A.\u2019s path to 52 is achievable solely by winning the five gimmes and defeating a reeling Golden State team, even if the Lakers lose their other four games.<\/p>\n

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With a win total of 52 or above, the Lakers are almost assured of remaining in a top-three seed as well. ESPN BPI projects the Rockets and Wolves to reach 49 or 50 wins, with the Nuggets grabbing 51. Additionally, the Lakers won the tiebreak against all three teams and would win any multi-team tie; a team like Denver has to pass them, not just catch them. (That intentional miss by Reaves two weeks ago looms quite large here!)<\/p>\n

As others have written<\/a>, the Lakers\u2019 improving chemistry among their three perimeter stars has played a big role in their surge, and the timing doesn\u2019t seem accidental. As I noted a year ago<\/a>, incorporating an extremely high-usage player such as Luka Don\u010di\u0107 is difficult enough in the offseason, let alone mid-stream after the shocking trade from Dallas last February. It seemed like it took a full year before L.A. finally struck the right balance with LeBron James and Reaves. Between that, the Kennard trade and some improved health, their move up the West food chain seems entirely believable.<\/p>\n

Of course, at this point, I should probably discuss the elephant in the room. If we\u2019re going to talk euphorically about the Lakers returning to the NBA\u2019s contender class, we also must include an orca-sized pillar of salt. The Lakers are playing their best basketball of the season, by far, and yet even in that stretch, the two teams they must beat, the Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs, have still been better.<\/p>\n

Oklahoma City has won 12 in a row and gone 15-1 since the break, with the only loss coming at Detroit in a game that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso all missed. San Antonio, meanwhile, is 22-2 in its last 24 games with 16 double-digit wins. Scary.<\/em><\/p>\n

Historically, plenty of teams that technically had \u201ccontender\u201d metrics were still obliterated in the playoffs because they ran into a buzzsaw like Oklahoma City or San Antonio. Of the six teams that seem likely to meet my contender criteria this season (three in the West, plus Detroit, Boston and New York), only one can win the title. Of those six, the Lakers unquestionably would have the worst odds in the group.<\/p>\n

What this recent run of play does do, however, is at least put the Lakers in the Jim Carrey zone<\/a> \u2014 yes, I\u2019m saying there\u2019s a chance. It didn\u2019t seem that way a few weeks ago.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ORLANDO, Fla. \u2014 They did it again. With two seconds left in Orlando on Saturday and trailing by two points, the Los Angeles Lakers managed to find Luke Kennard standing by himself at the 3-point line on a baseline out-of-bounds play, from which point the NBA\u2019s leading 3-point shooter calmly deposited in the go-ahead points […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[226,241],"class_list":["post-1845900","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-crawlmanager","tag-nytimes-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1845900","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1845900"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1845900\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1845900"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1845900"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1845900"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}