{"id":1835962,"date":"2026-03-19T03:21:17","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T00:21:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1835962"},"modified":"2026-03-19T03:21:17","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T00:21:17","slug":"5-wild-ways-pogacar-and-van-der-poel-could-lose-milan-san-remo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1835962","title":{"rendered":"5 Wild Ways Poga\u010dar and Van der Poel Could Lose Milan-San Remo"},"content":{"rendered":"

[analyse_image type=”featured” src=”https:\/\/velo-cdn.outsideonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/msr-3.jpg”]<\/p>\n

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Jim Cotton<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Updated March 19, 2026 09:15AM<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Why are we only talking about Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Poga\u010dar ahead of Milan-San Remo?<\/p>\n

This is La Primavera<\/em> \u2013 the race where anything can happen.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s 250km of waiting, and 50km of micro-margins and split-second decisions.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why not even cycling superhumans Poga\u010dar and Van der Poel are assured victory on the iconic Via Roma.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a sneaky-strong pack of underdogs who can break the Pogi-MVDP narrative on Saturday, and a bunch of ways they could do it.<\/p>\n

Riders like Tom Pidcock, Wout van Aert, and the Big 2\u2019s very own teammates could pull classic moves from the San Remo playbook, or get a little more \u201cinventive\u201d in the must-watch final hour of racing.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s how an outsider could beat Van der Poel and Poga\u010dar at the 2026 Milan-San Remo.<\/p>\n

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Del Toro: Monument red mist<\/h2>\n
\"Which
Which one of Poga\u010dar and Del Toro be laughing on Saturday afternoon?<\/span> (Photo: im de Waele\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Del Toro \u2013 San Remo record: 2 starts, 13th in 2025<\/strong><\/p>\n

Isaac del Toro could usurp the big boss on Saturday. Don\u2019t laugh, it could happen.<\/p>\n

Anything<\/em> can happen in Milan-San Remo\u2019s high-speed lottery.<\/p>\n

But how would\u00a0Torito<\/em> beat his UAE teammate Poga\u010dar to the monument he so craves?<\/p>\n

The most plausible way is simply that Poga\u010dar has a bad day.<\/p>\n

If Pogi gets such bad guts, bad legs, or bad luck that not even his superdomestique can save him, Del Toro is next in line at the UAE super team. And the 22-year-old showed at Tirreno-Adriatico that he\u2019s not scared of a skuffle with a rider of the muscle of Van der Poel.<\/p>\n

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Another scenario we\u2019d love to see?<\/p>\n

Del Toro, Poga\u010dar, and Van der Poel go clear over the Cipressa and work together to arrive as three on the Via Roma.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s where the Mexican gets the monument red mist.<\/p>\n

He surprise-attacks them both and steals Poga\u010dar\u2019s missing monument.<\/p>\n

Del Toro would be forced to clean UAE\u2019s fleet of Colnagos with his toothbrush for the rest of his career if it happens \u2013 but it would be worth it.<\/p>\n

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Ganna: \u2018The Flying Cancellara\u2019<\/h2>\n
\"Ganna
Ganna has come close twice at Milan San Remo. Maybe this is the time for him to uncork a solo flyer.<\/span> (Photo: Dario Belingheri\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Ganna \u2013 San Remo record: 8 starts, finished 2nd twice (2023 and 2025)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fillipo Ganna has got all the tools to turn the tables on the Big 2 on Saturday.<\/p>\n

Last year, the huge Italian surpassed his weight class to hang on to the UAE onslaught on the Cipressa and Poggio, and pushed MVDP all the way in the kick for the line.<\/p>\n

Ganna can sort-of<\/em> climb, and he can sprint.<\/p>\n

But Top Ganna\u2019s best weapon for San Remo is his world-beating pursuit.<\/p>\n

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If Ganna can cling to another UAE climbing blitz on Saturday, he\u2019s got the horsepower to \u201cpull a Cancellara\u201d down 2,000m of smooth Via Roma.<\/p>\n

The Swiss \u201cSpartacus\u201d blew his rivals away with his audacious snap attack in 2008. Jasper Stuyven repeated the feat in 2021.<\/p>\n

A solo flyer would be the most dramatic, and perhaps the most likely, route to victory for Italy\u2019s beloved time trial star.<\/p>\n

The nation\u2019s nonnas will need a stiff aperitivo<\/em> if he pulls it off.<\/p>\n

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Pidcock: The downhill masterclass<\/h2>\n
Pidcock\u2019s best chance is launching on the sinous descent of the Poggio.<\/span> (Photo: Szymon Gruchalski\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Pidcock \u2013 San Remo record: 4 starts, finished 11th in 2024<\/strong><\/p>\n

If Tom Pidcock is on the start line of a major classic, you can count on him trying something \u2013 no matter who\u2019s there.<\/p>\n

And San Remo is certainly no exception.<\/p>\n

Pidcock teased an attack down the Poggio in his 2021 San Remo debut, but admitted he didn\u2019t really know what he was doing. In fact, he barely knew where he was going, having failed to do a recon of the sinuous descent.<\/p>\n

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A few years later in 2024, the sub-60kg \u2018crosser attempted a 500m dash down the Via Roma.<\/p>\n

This year round, it\u2019s time for Pidders to reprise the Poggio attack.<\/p>\n

Sure, the chances of success are minimal. Cycling\u2019s greatest stuntman will need hundreds of meters of a gap to fend off a group of chasers in the 2km canter down the Via Roma.<\/p>\n

But if anyone can pull it off, it\u2019s Pidcock.<\/p>\n

The Brit\u2019s summit finish victory on Wednesday in Torino suggests the engine is ready. Now let\u2019s hope he does more trial runs of the Poggio than in 2021.<\/p>\n

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Van Aert, Brennan, Jorgenson: The Visma triple threat<\/h2>\n
\"Who
Who wouldn\u2019t want to see always-unlucky Van Aert win Milan-San Remo for a second time? <\/span> (Photo: Tim de Waele\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Visma triple threat \u2013 San Remo records:<\/strong><\/p>\n

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  • Van Aert:<\/strong> 5 starts, won in 2020, finished 3rd twice<\/li>\n
  • Brennan:<\/strong> Debutant<\/li>\n
  • Jorgenson:<\/strong> 1 start (2020), finished 17th<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Visma-Lease a Bike hasn\u2019t won a monument since Wout van Aert outsprinted Julian Alaphilippe at the bizarre mid-summer edition of San Remo in 2020.<\/p>\n

    Could \u201cThe Killer Bees\u201d quench its monument drought on Saturday?<\/p>\n

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    On paper, V-LAB has it all covered for La Primavera. Van Aert the all-rounder, Matthew Brennan the speedster, and Matteo Jorgenson the tractor to tow them through all scenarios.<\/p>\n

    But as we Brits would say, is the team \u201cJack of all trades, master of none?\u201d<\/p>\n

    The chance of a bunch sprint for Brennan seems slim. Poga\u010dar is hell-bent on making the race as hard as possible, and forecasts of a tailwind further reduce the odds of \u201ca bunchie\u201d.<\/p>\n

    Jorgenson could hold the fastest wheels over the Poggio, but even he jokes about his sluggish sprint. Sorry Matteo, you\u2019ll be last across the line in a small group finale.<\/p>\n

    Which means Wout needs to bring it home for \u201cThe Bees.\u201d<\/p>\n

    WVA has been talking himself up for San Remo. He inched close to his killer best as he raced through the recent Strade Bianche and Tirreno-Adriatico. But only Wout\u2019s very best legs, and a rare dose of luck, will beat Pogi and MVDP on Saturday.<\/p>\n

    And if it doesn\u2019t work out for Woutjie<\/em>?<\/p>\n

    Maybe Matteo and Matthew can prove our predictions wrong.<\/p>\n

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    Philipsen, Groves: 2024 redux for the Alpecin speedsters<\/h2>\n
    \"Philipsen
    Philipsen won a small-group sprint in 2024 after his teammate Van der Poel neutralized the attacks.<\/span> (Photo: DARIO BELINGHERI \/ BELGA MAG \/ Belga via AFP)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

    Alpecin speedsters: San Remo records:<\/strong><\/p>\n

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    • Philipsen:<\/strong> 5 starts, won in 2024<\/li>\n
    • Groves:<\/strong> 1 start (2025), finished 5th<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Jasper Philipsen knows he got lucky with how the race unfolded when he won Milan-San Remo in 2024.<\/p>\n

      And sorry Jasper, but the possibility of a small-sprint redux on Saturday seems slim. The odds of a group arriving together on the Via Roma have been decimated since Poga\u010dar and UAE decided to start devastating the Cipressa.<\/p>\n

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      But maybe an underpowered UAE team doesn\u2019t deliver its climbing coup de gr\u00e2ce.\u00a0<\/em>The \u201cPoga\u010dar-launchers\u201d Tim Wellens and Jhonatan Narv\u00e1ez are both out of action.<\/p>\n

      And if so, Van der Poel, Philipsen, and their teammate Kaden Groves could all land in the jumble of riders after the descent of the Poggio.<\/p>\n

      In which case, anybody not in an Alpecin-Premier Tech jersey is toast.<\/p>\n

      Jonathan Milan, Mads Pedersen, Olav Kooij, and Tim Merlier are all sidelined for San Remo, leaving few riders fast enough to stop the Belgian team from scooping La Classicissima<\/em> for a fourth year in a row.<\/p>\n

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      Bonus 6th option \u2013 Seixas: Coz the kid can\u2019t help himself<\/h2>\n
      \"Seixas\"
      Seixas isn\u2019t scheduled to race Milan-San Remo, but they say Gen-Zs have a short attention span \u2026<\/span> (Photo: Marco BERTORELLO \/ AFP via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

      Seixas \u2013 San Remo record: <\/strong>Debutant<\/p>\n

      Cycling\u2019s newest hotshot Paul Seixas isn\u2019t scheduled to race Milan-San Remo on Saturday.<\/p>\n

      But who knows? Maybe the 19-year-old wonderkid has gotten the itch after his wild start to the season, and he jets into Milan for the clicks.<\/p>\n

      They do say Gen-Zs have a short attention span, after all.<\/p>\n

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      Seixas would rank among the favorites if he made his monument debut in a parallel dimension of La Primavera<\/em>.<\/p>\n

      Sure, he\u2019s never raced anywhere near that far, and his positioning skills haven\u2019t caught up to his wild physiology. But he\u2019s got the climbing chops to match Poga\u010dar, and could stuff the Slovenian in a sprint.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

      \n
      \n
      Jim Cotton<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
      Updated March 19, 2026 09:15AM<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

      [analyse_source url=”https:\/\/velo.outsideonline.com\/road\/road-racing\/outsiders-beat-van-der-poel-pogacar-milan-san-remo\/”]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      [analyse_image type=”featured” src=”https:\/\/velo-cdn.outsideonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/msr-3.jpg”] Jim Cotton Updated March 19, 2026 09:15AM Why are we only talking about Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Poga\u010dar ahead of Milan-San Remo? This is La Primavera \u2013 the race where anything can happen. It\u2019s 250km of waiting, and 50km of micro-margins and split-second decisions. That\u2019s why not even cycling superhumans […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[226,71],"class_list":["post-1835962","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","tag-crawlmanager","tag-velo-outsideonline-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1835962","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1835962"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1835962\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1835962"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1835962"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1835962"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}