{"id":1832408,"date":"2026-03-17T12:23:46","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T09:23:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1832408"},"modified":"2026-03-17T12:23:46","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T09:23:46","slug":"europes-massive-defense-gamble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1832408","title":{"rendered":"Europe’s massive defense gamble"},"content":{"rendered":"

[analyse_image type=”featured” src=”https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/64734687_6.jpg”]<\/p>\n

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https:\/\/p.dw.com\/p\/5AIHF<\/span><\/div>\n<\/section>\n
The US defense sector is under growing pressure to increase productionImage: Savanah Bray\/U.S. Air Force\/Zuma\/picture alliance<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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US President Donald Trump<\/a> recently hosted executives from seven major defense contractors in the White House \u2014 part of an attempt by his administration to shore up the sector as the war against Iran<\/a> intensifies.<\/p>\n

The conflict has exposed strains within the US\u00a0defense sector<\/a>.\u00a0There are concerns over US stockpiles of long-range missiles and air-defence interceptors<\/a>, and over the sector’s capacity to ramp up production in the event of a prolonged conflict.<\/p>\n

Trump said he had discussed “production and production schedules” with the companies, namely Lockheed Martin, RTX (Raytheon), BAE Systems, Boeing, Honeywell Aerospace and Northrop Grumman, at the White House meeting.<\/p>\n

However, there have been reports that negotiations between the Pentagon<\/a> and the country’s biggest defense contractors for new production have not been concluded as quickly as the White House would like amid existing tensions.<\/p>\n

Tensions between Trump and defense supplies<\/h2>\n

Byron Callan, a defense stocks analyst with Capital Alpha Partners in Washington, says a persistent criticism of US defense majors is that they have been “risk-averse,” focusing on returning dividends to shareholders rather than reinvesting.<\/p>\n

“There was criticism that the largest defense contractors in the United States had been lethargic, that they were not anticipating need and investing and taking risk,” he told DW.<\/p>\n

Before the US began its aerial bombardment of Iran<\/a>, tensions had been simmering between the Trump administration and the biggest US defense suppliers. Trump has regularly lashed out at defense companies for, in his view, prioritizing shareholder dividends and executive pay over investment in infrastructure and production.<\/p>\n

He has also been critical of companies that fail\u00a0to meet production deadlines and come\u00a0in over budget. He has previously singled out RTX (formerly Raytheon) \u2014 a major producer of the missiles and air defence interceptors used by the US military in the Iranian conflict \u2014\u00a0 as “the slowest in increasing their volume, and the most aggressive spending on their shareholders rather than the needs and demands” of the US\u00a0military.<\/p>\n

He threatened to remove them from government contracts if they did not increase investments in factories.<\/p>\n

In January, Trump issued an executive order saying defense companies were “not permitted in any way, shape, or form to pay dividends or buy back stock, until such time as they are able to produce a superior product, on time and on budget.”<\/p>\n

The Trump administration is also currently embroiled in a furious row with the AI start-up Anthropic<\/a>, a supplier to the US military, over its refusal to allow the military to have unbridled access to its Claude chatbot.<\/p>\n

More production, and faster<\/h2>\n

Trump\u00a0has specifically accused firms of spending too little on expanding factory capacity in favour of appeasing investors with mechanisms like stock buybacks.<\/p>\n

Stock buybacks occur\u00a0when companies use profits to repurchase their own shares, reducing\u00a0the number of publicly available shares, and potentially increasing the value of the remaining\u00a0individual shares.<\/p>\n

\"Air
US-made missile defense systems, such as PAC3 (pictured) are in high demandImage: Kyodo\/IMAGO<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza increased demand from US allies for US-made weapons<\/a>, and Trump previously criticized companies for not meeting demand quickly enough.<\/p>\n

“We have many people [who] want the F-35 fighter jet, and it takes too long to deliver them to allies or to ourselves,” he said. “The only way they’re going to be able to deliver them is if they build new plants. They don’t want to build new plants because it’s expensive.”<\/p>\n

Defense budget question marks<\/h2>\n

Philip Sheers, associate fellow with the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security, says investment in the US defense industrial base is increasing, specifically in munitions and air defense. However,\u00a0he cautions that it will take time for these investments to translate\u00a0into increased production rates.<\/p>\n

“Standing up new facilities or increasing supplies of raw materials can take years, and we’ve seen that with many of the facilities that are still being built in the wake of the war in Ukraine,” he told DW.<\/p>\n

However, he said a significant portion of the\u00a0blame for any sluggish production lies with\u00a0the US government for its regular failure to agree on budgets in time amid political infighting.<\/p>\n

“If the US government wants the defense industrial base to move fast, it needs to pass and appropriate budgets on time<\/a> so that contracts can be signed, resources can be allocated, and industry can be incentivized to move,” Sheers said, adding that the “consistent failure to pass budgets on time has become a geopolitical own goal of potentially historic proportions.”<\/p>\n

Byron Callan says the Trump administration’s desire for defense companies to invest in increased production could be upended by the question of budgets.<\/p>\n

\"Donald
Trump recently met with leading US military officialsImage: dpa\/picture alliance<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Polling currently suggests the Democrats have a good chance of winning back control of the US Congress in the midterm elections in November 2026.<\/p>\n

“That could really put a cap on defense spending,” he said. “This is an unpopular war and if that happens [Democrats winning],\u00a0there’s going to be an expectation for greater non-defense spending, on things like healthcare and infrastructure.”<\/p>\n

The US allocated $850 billion (\u20ac740 billion)\u00a0towards defence in its 2025 budget, with the number due to hit $900 billion in 2026. Trump has called for it to reach\u00a0$1.5 trillion in 2027, alarming\u00a0many experts who question\u00a0the sustainability of US debt as it stands.<\/p>\n

Iran: a\u00a0forever war?<\/h2>\n

The defense sector is also now braced for the possibility that the war in Iran will drag on for far longer than anticipated.<\/p>\n

When the Iraq War began in 2003, Kenneth Adelman, US Ambassador to the UN from 1981 to 1983, firmly believed it would be a quick and easy victory for the US.<\/p>\n

However, the way that war dragged on and became a quagmire for the US armed forces transformed his political perspective. Despite still being a Republican, Adelman is now a vocal Trump critic. He told DW he thinks the Iranian conflict could take on a similar dynamic.<\/p>\n

“Iran has been planning for this for a long time<\/a>,” he said. “It has already gone on longer than the Pentagon has been planning. And I have no faith in how the Pentagon plans these things after what I saw in Iraq.”<\/p>\n

A sustained conflict would likely mean increased orders for the leading US defense companies as well as rising share prices.<\/p>\n

The Trump family has, meanwhile, stepped up its own defense investments. The President’s sons Eric and Donald Jr. have invested in a new drone company seeking to capitalize on a ban on new Chinese drones in the US.<\/p>\n

Since the Iran war began on February 28, US defense stocks have retreated. Although the Dow Jones US Aerospace & Defense Index jumped briefly at the start of the conflict, it has since fallen\u00a0by about\u00a03%.<\/p>\n

Edited by: Rob Mudge<\/em><\/p>\n

\n

Europe’s massive defense gamble<\/h2>\n

\n

US President Donald Trump<\/a> recently hosted executives from seven major defense contractors in the White House \u2014 part of an attempt by his administration to shore up the sector as the war against Iran<\/a> intensifies.<\/p>\n

The conflict has exposed strains within the US\u00a0defense sector<\/a>.\u00a0There are concerns over US stockpiles of long-range missiles and air-defence interceptors<\/a>, and over the sector’s capacity to ramp up production in the event of a prolonged conflict.<\/p>\n

Trump said he had discussed “production and production schedules” with the companies, namely Lockheed Martin, RTX (Raytheon), BAE Systems, Boeing, Honeywell Aerospace and Northrop Grumman, at the White House meeting.<\/p>\n

However, there have been reports that negotiations between the Pentagon<\/a> and the country’s biggest defense contractors for new production have not been concluded as quickly as the White House would like amid existing tensions.<\/p>\n

Tensions between Trump and defense supplies<\/h2>\n

Byron Callan, a defense stocks analyst with Capital Alpha Partners in Washington, says a persistent criticism of US defense majors is that they have been “risk-averse,” focusing on returning dividends to shareholders rather than reinvesting.<\/p>\n

“There was criticism that the largest defense contractors in the United States had been lethargic, that they were not anticipating need and investing and taking risk,” he told DW.<\/p>\n

Before the US began its aerial bombardment of Iran<\/a>, tensions had been simmering between the Trump administration and the biggest US defense suppliers. Trump has regularly lashed out at defense companies for, in his view, prioritizing shareholder dividends and executive pay over investment in infrastructure and production.<\/p>\n

He has also been critical of companies that fail\u00a0to meet production deadlines and come\u00a0in over budget. He has previously singled out RTX (formerly Raytheon) \u2014 a major producer of the missiles and air defence interceptors used by the US military in the Iranian conflict \u2014\u00a0 as “the slowest in increasing their volume, and the most aggressive spending on their shareholders rather than the needs and demands” of the US\u00a0military.<\/p>\n

He threatened to remove them from government contracts if they did not increase investments in factories.<\/p>\n

In January, Trump issued an executive order saying defense companies were “not permitted in any way, shape, or form to pay dividends or buy back stock, until such time as they are able to produce a superior product, on time and on budget.”<\/p>\n

The Trump administration is also currently embroiled in a furious row with the AI start-up Anthropic<\/a>, a supplier to the US military, over its refusal to allow the military to have unbridled access to its Claude chatbot.<\/p>\n

More production, and faster<\/h2>\n

Trump\u00a0has specifically accused firms of spending too little on expanding factory capacity in favour of appeasing investors with mechanisms like stock buybacks.<\/p>\n

Stock buybacks occur\u00a0when companies use profits to repurchase their own shares, reducing\u00a0the number of publicly available shares, and potentially increasing the value of the remaining\u00a0individual shares.<\/p>\n

\"Air
US-made missile defense systems, such as PAC3 (pictured) are in high demandImage: Kyodo\/IMAGO<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza increased demand from US allies for US-made weapons<\/a>, and Trump previously criticized companies for not meeting demand quickly enough.<\/p>\n

“We have many people [who] want the F-35 fighter jet, and it takes too long to deliver them to allies or to ourselves,” he said. “The only way they’re going to be able to deliver them is if they build new plants. They don’t want to build new plants because it’s expensive.”<\/p>\n

Defense budget question marks<\/h2>\n

Philip Sheers, associate fellow with the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security, says investment in the US defense industrial base is increasing, specifically in munitions and air defense. However,\u00a0he cautions that it will take time for these investments to translate\u00a0into increased production rates.<\/p>\n

“Standing up new facilities or increasing supplies of raw materials can take years, and we’ve seen that with many of the facilities that are still being built in the wake of the war in Ukraine,” he told DW.<\/p>\n

However, he said a significant portion of the\u00a0blame for any sluggish production lies with\u00a0the US government for its regular failure to agree on budgets in time amid political infighting.<\/p>\n

“If the US government wants the defense industrial base to move fast, it needs to pass and appropriate budgets on time<\/a> so that contracts can be signed, resources can be allocated, and industry can be incentivized to move,” Sheers said, adding that the “consistent failure to pass budgets on time has become a geopolitical own goal of potentially historic proportions.”<\/p>\n

Byron Callan says the Trump administration’s desire for defense companies to invest in increased production could be upended by the question of budgets.<\/p>\n

\"Donald
Trump recently met with leading US military officialsImage: dpa\/picture alliance<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Polling currently suggests the Democrats have a good chance of winning back control of the US Congress in the midterm elections in November 2026.<\/p>\n

“That could really put a cap on defense spending,” he said. “This is an unpopular war and if that happens [Democrats winning],\u00a0there’s going to be an expectation for greater non-defense spending, on things like healthcare and infrastructure.”<\/p>\n

The US allocated $850 billion (\u20ac740 billion)\u00a0towards defence in its 2025 budget, with the number due to hit $900 billion in 2026. Trump has called for it to reach\u00a0$1.5 trillion in 2027, alarming\u00a0many experts who question\u00a0the sustainability of US debt as it stands.<\/p>\n

Iran: a\u00a0forever war?<\/h2>\n

The defense sector is also now braced for the possibility that the war in Iran will drag on for far longer than anticipated.<\/p>\n

When the Iraq War began in 2003, Kenneth Adelman, US Ambassador to the UN from 1981 to 1983, firmly believed it would be a quick and easy victory for the US.<\/p>\n

However, the way that war dragged on and became a quagmire for the US armed forces transformed his political perspective. Despite still being a Republican, Adelman is now a vocal Trump critic. He told DW he thinks the Iranian conflict could take on a similar dynamic.<\/p>\n

“Iran has been planning for this for a long time<\/a>,” he said. “It has already gone on longer than the Pentagon has been planning. And I have no faith in how the Pentagon plans these things after what I saw in Iraq.”<\/p>\n

A sustained conflict would likely mean increased orders for the leading US defense companies as well as rising share prices.<\/p>\n

The Trump family has, meanwhile, stepped up its own defense investments. The President’s sons Eric and Donald Jr. have invested in a new drone company seeking to capitalize on a ban on new Chinese drones in the US.<\/p>\n

Since the Iran war began on February 28, US defense stocks have retreated. Although the Dow Jones US Aerospace & Defense Index jumped briefly at the start of the conflict, it has since fallen\u00a0by about\u00a03%.<\/p>\n

Edited by: Rob Mudge<\/em><\/p>\n

\n

Europe’s massive defense gamble<\/h2>\n

US President Donald Trump<\/a> recently hosted executives from seven major defense contractors in the White House \u2014 part of an attempt by his administration to shore up the sector as the war against Iran<\/a> intensifies.<\/p>\n

The conflict has exposed strains within the US\u00a0defense sector<\/a>.\u00a0There are concerns over US stockpiles of long-range missiles and air-defence interceptors<\/a>, and over the sector’s capacity to ramp up production in the event of a prolonged conflict.<\/p>\n

Trump said he had discussed “production and production schedules” with the companies, namely Lockheed Martin, RTX (Raytheon), BAE Systems, Boeing, Honeywell Aerospace and Northrop Grumman, at the White House meeting.<\/p>\n

However, there have been reports that negotiations between the Pentagon<\/a> and the country’s biggest defense contractors for new production have not been concluded as quickly as the White House would like amid existing tensions.<\/p>\n

Byron Callan, a defense stocks analyst with Capital Alpha Partners in Washington, says a persistent criticism of US defense majors is that they have been “risk-averse,” focusing on returning dividends to shareholders rather than reinvesting.<\/p>\n

“There was criticism that the largest defense contractors in the United States had been lethargic, that they were not anticipating need and investing and taking risk,” he told DW.<\/p>\n

Before the US began its aerial bombardment of Iran<\/a>, tensions had been simmering between the Trump administration and the biggest US defense suppliers. Trump has regularly lashed out at defense companies for, in his view, prioritizing shareholder dividends and executive pay over investment in infrastructure and production.<\/p>\n

He has also been critical of companies that fail\u00a0to meet production deadlines and come\u00a0in over budget. He has previously singled out RTX (formerly Raytheon) \u2014 a major producer of the missiles and air defence interceptors used by the US military in the Iranian conflict \u2014\u00a0 as “the slowest in increasing their volume, and the most aggressive spending on their shareholders rather than the needs and demands” of the US\u00a0military.<\/p>\n

He threatened to remove them from government contracts if they did not increase investments in factories.<\/p>\n

In January, Trump issued an executive order saying defense companies were “not permitted in any way, shape, or form to pay dividends or buy back stock, until such time as they are able to produce a superior product, on time and on budget.”<\/p>\n

The Trump administration is also currently embroiled in a furious row with the AI start-up Anthropic<\/a>, a supplier to the US military, over its refusal to allow the military to have unbridled access to its Claude chatbot.<\/p>\n

Trump\u00a0has specifically accused firms of spending too little on expanding factory capacity in favour of appeasing investors with mechanisms like stock buybacks.<\/p>\n

Stock buybacks occur\u00a0when companies use profits to repurchase their own shares, reducing\u00a0the number of publicly available shares, and potentially increasing the value of the remaining\u00a0individual shares.<\/p>\n

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza increased demand from US allies for US-made weapons<\/a>, and Trump previously criticized companies for not meeting demand quickly enough.<\/p>\n

“We have many people [who] want the F-35 fighter jet, and it takes too long to deliver them to allies or to ourselves,” he said. “The only way they’re going to be able to deliver them is if they build new plants. They don’t want to build new plants because it’s expensive.”<\/p>\n

Philip Sheers, associate fellow with the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security, says investment in the US defense industrial base is increasing, specifically in munitions and air defense. However,\u00a0he cautions that it will take time for these investments to translate\u00a0into increased production rates.<\/p>\n

“Standing up new facilities or increasing supplies of raw materials can take years, and we’ve seen that with many of the facilities that are still being built in the wake of the war in Ukraine,” he told DW.<\/p>\n

However, he said a significant portion of the\u00a0blame for any sluggish production lies with\u00a0the US government for its regular failure to agree on budgets in time amid political infighting.<\/p>\n

“If the US government wants the defense industrial base to move fast, it needs to pass and appropriate budgets on time<\/a> so that contracts can be signed, resources can be allocated, and industry can be incentivized to move,” Sheers said, adding that the “consistent failure to pass budgets on time has become a geopolitical own goal of potentially historic proportions.”<\/p>\n

Byron Callan says the Trump administration’s desire for defense companies to invest in increased production could be upended by the question of budgets.<\/p>\n

Polling currently suggests the Democrats have a good chance of winning back control of the US Congress in the midterm elections in November 2026.<\/p>\n

“That could really put a cap on defense spending,” he said. “This is an unpopular war and if that happens [Democrats winning],\u00a0there’s going to be an expectation for greater non-defense spending, on things like healthcare and infrastructure.”<\/p>\n

The US allocated $850 billion (\u20ac740 billion)\u00a0towards defence in its 2025 budget, with the number due to hit $900 billion in 2026. Trump has called for it to reach\u00a0$1.5 trillion in 2027, alarming\u00a0many experts who question\u00a0the sustainability of US debt as it stands.<\/p>\n

The defense sector is also now braced for the possibility that the war in Iran will drag on for far longer than anticipated.<\/p>\n

When the Iraq War began in 2003, Kenneth Adelman, US Ambassador to the UN from 1981 to 1983, firmly believed it would be a quick and easy victory for the US.<\/p>\n

However, the way that war dragged on and became a quagmire for the US armed forces transformed his political perspective. Despite still being a Republican, Adelman is now a vocal Trump critic. He told DW he thinks the Iranian conflict could take on a similar dynamic.<\/p>\n

“Iran has been planning for this for a long time<\/a>,” he said. “It has already gone on longer than the Pentagon has been planning. And I have no faith in how the Pentagon plans these things after what I saw in Iraq.”<\/p>\n

A sustained conflict would likely mean increased orders for the leading US defense companies as well as rising share prices.<\/p>\n

The Trump family has, meanwhile, stepped up its own defense investments. The President’s sons Eric and Donald Jr. have invested in a new drone company seeking to capitalize on a ban on new Chinese drones in the US.<\/p>\n

Since the Iran war began on February 28, US defense stocks have retreated. Although the Dow Jones US Aerospace & Defense Index jumped briefly at the start of the conflict, it has since fallen\u00a0by about\u00a03%.<\/p>\n

Edited by: Rob Mudge<\/em><\/p>\n

To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video<\/a><\/p>\n

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[analyse_image type=”featured” src=”https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/64734687_6.jpg”] https:\/\/p.dw.com\/p\/5AIHF The US defense sector is under growing pressure to increase productionImage: Savanah Bray\/U.S. Air Force\/Zuma\/picture alliance US President Donald Trump recently hosted executives from seven major defense contractors in the White House \u2014 part of an attempt by his administration to shore up the sector as the war against Iran intensifies. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[226,74],"class_list":["post-1832408","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","tag-crawlmanager","tag-dw-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1832408","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1832408"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1832408\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1832408"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1832408"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1832408"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}