{"id":1826259,"date":"2026-03-13T19:39:11","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T16:39:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1826259"},"modified":"2026-03-13T19:39:11","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T16:39:11","slug":"possible-us-strikes-on-iran-balancing-act-in-the-gulf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1826259","title":{"rendered":"Possible US strikes on Iran \u2014 Balancing act in the Gulf"},"content":{"rendered":"

[analyse_image type=”featured” src=”https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76338262_6.jpg”]<\/p>\n

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https:\/\/p.dw.com\/p\/5ALu0<\/span><\/div>\n<\/section>\n
The war is likely to have long-lasting effects on relations around the Gulf [File photo: January 2025]Image: Hossein Beris\/Middle East Images\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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As the US-Israel war on Iran<\/a> marks two weeks, much is at stake for the region. On Friday,\u00a0Iran continued to launch strikes on\u00a0Saudi Arabia<\/a> and Bahrain<\/a>. Iran’s new supreme leader,\u00a0Mojtaba Khamenei<\/a>, also vowed in his first public comment earlier this week to keep the Strait of Hormuz<\/a> closed.<\/p>\n

Iran’s Arab neighbors on the Persian Gulf appear reluctant to openly comment\u00a0on Iran’s new supreme leader, Sebastian Sons, a senior\u00a0researcher at the Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient, told DW.<\/p>\n

“The various capitals in the Gulf want to get a clear picture of the situation first,” he said.<\/p>\n

Philipp Dienstbier, the Jordan-based\u00a0head of the Gulf States regional program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, told DW that the Israeli-US war on Iran has\u00a0united the Gulf states<\/a>. “In the early days of the crisis, there were numerous expressions of solidarity,”\u00a0he said, “even between states that were previously at odds.”<\/p>\n

“The threat from Iran<\/a>\u00a0is a challenge that requires regional coordination,” he said, predicting that closer cooperation could emerge in the future, particularly in the areas of air defense and missile defense.<\/p>\n

\"The
Iran’s threat to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed will affect the Gulf countriesImage: Benoit Tessier\/REUTERS<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

“None of the Gulf states has an interest in this war dragging on,” Sons said. “Ultimately, the entire business model of the region suffers<\/a> as a result.” Attacks on energy facilities, airports\u00a0or water infrastructure would strike at the lifeblood of the Gulf economy, he said. “Therefore, the region faces a difficult balancing act,” Sons said. The Gulf states must make it clear to Iran “that red lines have been crossed,” he said, but added that\u00a0he doesn’t see any “long-term alternative to diplomacy<\/a>\u00a0either.”<\/p>\n

Sons said the conflict was a challenge to\u00a0the region’s\u00a0security strategy<\/a>. In recent years, the Gulf states have sought stability situation through broad-based diplomacy<\/a>, he said. The goal had been to engage with as many actors as possible \u2014 including both the United States and Iran.<\/p>\n

“This kind of 360-degree diplomacy was actually intended to prevent the region itself from becoming a battlefield,” Sons said. Current developments show that this approach worked to a limited extent. The question now is how the Gulf states should deal with an increasingly fragile security situation in the future.<\/p>\n

Dienstbier said,\u00a0“The Gulf states have deliberately adopted a balanced position in recent years.”\u00a0Saudi Arabia, for example, has increasingly focused on deescalation; countries such as Oman and Qatar<\/a>\u00a0have acted as mediators<\/a>. However, the recent attacks have severely damaged this trust, Dienstbier said. Even if the war ends soon, he added, it will be virtually “impossible to simply return to the way things were before.”<\/p>\n

\n

Possible US strikes on Iran \u2014 Balancing act in the Gulf <\/h2>\n

‘Fundamental change’ unlikely<\/h2>\n

Overall, the regional reaction\u00a0to Iran’s strikes has been mixed, Dienstbier said. He added that the Gulf governments likely see Iran’s\u00a0new\u00a0supreme leader more as a declaration of\u00a0\u00a0continuity over change.<\/p>\n

“Khamenei is considered someone who is close to the Revolutionary Guards and has been groomed within the system as a successor,” Dienstbier said. Accordingly, Gulf governments assume that Iran’s current policy will continue.<\/p>\n

“No one in the Gulf is currently expecting a fundamental change in political course,” Dienstbier said. He added that it remains unclear how Khamenei, who\u00a0had not previously held political office, will act as supreme leader.<\/p>\n

Sons offered a similar analysis of the situation. “Khamenei is seen as a clear representative of the existing establishment<\/a> and thus as a figure who could continue his father’s policies.” He added: “At the same time, Khamenei has close ties to the\u00a0Revolutionary Guards<\/a> and is therefore perceived as a hard-liner.”<\/p>\n

Sons remains optimistic that a semblance of the old order could be restored around the Persian Gulf. “On the one hand, Khamenei poses a challenge to the security of the Gulf states,” he said, “but, on the other hand, he is a figure who is at least reasonably well-known.” Therefore, there may be hope that relations with Iran can be “managed” politically in the long term, Sons said.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

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Oman: Iran’s quiet Gulf mediator under strain<\/h2>\n

This article was originally written in German.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n

\n

As the US-Israel war on Iran<\/a> marks two weeks, much is at stake for the region. On Friday,\u00a0Iran continued to launch strikes on\u00a0Saudi Arabia<\/a> and Bahrain<\/a>. Iran’s new supreme leader,\u00a0Mojtaba Khamenei<\/a>, also vowed in his first public comment earlier this week to keep the Strait of Hormuz<\/a> closed.<\/p>\n

Iran’s Arab neighbors on the Persian Gulf appear reluctant to openly comment\u00a0on Iran’s new supreme leader, Sebastian Sons, a senior\u00a0researcher at the Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient, told DW.<\/p>\n

“The various capitals in the Gulf want to get a clear picture of the situation first,” he said.<\/p>\n

Philipp Dienstbier, the Jordan-based\u00a0head of the Gulf States regional program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, told DW that the Israeli-US war on Iran has\u00a0united the Gulf states<\/a>. “In the early days of the crisis, there were numerous expressions of solidarity,”\u00a0he said, “even between states that were previously at odds.”<\/p>\n

“The threat from Iran<\/a>\u00a0is a challenge that requires regional coordination,” he said, predicting that closer cooperation could emerge in the future, particularly in the areas of air defense and missile defense.<\/p>\n

\"The
Iran’s threat to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed will affect the Gulf countriesImage: Benoit Tessier\/REUTERS<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

“None of the Gulf states has an interest in this war dragging on,” Sons said. “Ultimately, the entire business model of the region suffers<\/a> as a result.” Attacks on energy facilities, airports\u00a0or water infrastructure would strike at the lifeblood of the Gulf economy, he said. “Therefore, the region faces a difficult balancing act,” Sons said. The Gulf states must make it clear to Iran “that red lines have been crossed,” he said, but added that\u00a0he doesn’t see any “long-term alternative to diplomacy<\/a>\u00a0either.”<\/p>\n

Sons said the conflict was a challenge to\u00a0the region’s\u00a0security strategy<\/a>. In recent years, the Gulf states have sought stability situation through broad-based diplomacy<\/a>, he said. The goal had been to engage with as many actors as possible \u2014 including both the United States and Iran.<\/p>\n

“This kind of 360-degree diplomacy was actually intended to prevent the region itself from becoming a battlefield,” Sons said. Current developments show that this approach worked to a limited extent. The question now is how the Gulf states should deal with an increasingly fragile security situation in the future.<\/p>\n

Dienstbier said,\u00a0“The Gulf states have deliberately adopted a balanced position in recent years.”\u00a0Saudi Arabia, for example, has increasingly focused on deescalation; countries such as Oman and Qatar<\/a>\u00a0have acted as mediators<\/a>. However, the recent attacks have severely damaged this trust, Dienstbier said. Even if the war ends soon, he added, it will be virtually “impossible to simply return to the way things were before.”<\/p>\n

\n

Possible US strikes on Iran \u2014 Balancing act in the Gulf <\/h2>\n

‘Fundamental change’ unlikely<\/h2>\n

Overall, the regional reaction\u00a0to Iran’s strikes has been mixed, Dienstbier said. He added that the Gulf governments likely see Iran’s\u00a0new\u00a0supreme leader more as a declaration of\u00a0\u00a0continuity over change.<\/p>\n

“Khamenei is considered someone who is close to the Revolutionary Guards and has been groomed within the system as a successor,” Dienstbier said. Accordingly, Gulf governments assume that Iran’s current policy will continue.<\/p>\n

“No one in the Gulf is currently expecting a fundamental change in political course,” Dienstbier said. He added that it remains unclear how Khamenei, who\u00a0had not previously held political office, will act as supreme leader.<\/p>\n

Sons offered a similar analysis of the situation. “Khamenei is seen as a clear representative of the existing establishment<\/a> and thus as a figure who could continue his father’s policies.” He added: “At the same time, Khamenei has close ties to the\u00a0Revolutionary Guards<\/a> and is therefore perceived as a hard-liner.”<\/p>\n

Sons remains optimistic that a semblance of the old order could be restored around the Persian Gulf. “On the one hand, Khamenei poses a challenge to the security of the Gulf states,” he said, “but, on the other hand, he is a figure who is at least reasonably well-known.” Therefore, there may be hope that relations with Iran can be “managed” politically in the long term, Sons said.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n

Oman: Iran’s quiet Gulf mediator under strain<\/h2>\n

This article was originally written in German.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

As the US-Israel war on Iran<\/a> marks two weeks, much is at stake for the region. On Friday,\u00a0Iran continued to launch strikes on\u00a0Saudi Arabia<\/a> and Bahrain<\/a>. Iran’s new supreme leader,\u00a0Mojtaba Khamenei<\/a>, also vowed in his first public comment earlier this week to keep the Strait of Hormuz<\/a> closed.<\/p>\n

Iran’s Arab neighbors on the Persian Gulf appear reluctant to openly comment\u00a0on Iran’s new supreme leader, Sebastian Sons, a senior\u00a0researcher at the Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient, told DW.<\/p>\n

“The various capitals in the Gulf want to get a clear picture of the situation first,” he said.<\/p>\n

Philipp Dienstbier, the Jordan-based\u00a0head of the Gulf States regional program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, told DW that the Israeli-US war on Iran has\u00a0united the Gulf states<\/a>. “In the early days of the crisis, there were numerous expressions of solidarity,”\u00a0he said, “even between states that were previously at odds.”<\/p>\n

“The threat from Iran<\/a>\u00a0is a challenge that requires regional coordination,” he said, predicting that closer cooperation could emerge in the future, particularly in the areas of air defense and missile defense.<\/p>\n

“None of the Gulf states has an interest in this war dragging on,” Sons said. “Ultimately, the entire business model of the region suffers<\/a> as a result.” Attacks on energy facilities, airports\u00a0or water infrastructure would strike at the lifeblood of the Gulf economy, he said. “Therefore, the region faces a difficult balancing act,” Sons said. The Gulf states must make it clear to Iran “that red lines have been crossed,” he said, but added that\u00a0he doesn’t see any “long-term alternative to diplomacy<\/a>\u00a0either.”<\/p>\n

Sons said the conflict was a challenge to\u00a0the region’s\u00a0security strategy<\/a>. In recent years, the Gulf states have sought stability situation through broad-based diplomacy<\/a>, he said. The goal had been to engage with as many actors as possible \u2014 including both the United States and Iran.<\/p>\n

“This kind of 360-degree diplomacy was actually intended to prevent the region itself from becoming a battlefield,” Sons said. Current developments show that this approach worked to a limited extent. The question now is how the Gulf states should deal with an increasingly fragile security situation in the future.<\/p>\n

Dienstbier said,\u00a0“The Gulf states have deliberately adopted a balanced position in recent years.”\u00a0Saudi Arabia, for example, has increasingly focused on deescalation; countries such as Oman and Qatar<\/a>\u00a0have acted as mediators<\/a>. However, the recent attacks have severely damaged this trust, Dienstbier said. Even if the war ends soon, he added, it will be virtually “impossible to simply return to the way things were before.”<\/p>\n

To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video<\/a><\/p>\n

Overall, the regional reaction\u00a0to Iran’s strikes has been mixed, Dienstbier said. He added that the Gulf governments likely see Iran’s\u00a0new\u00a0supreme leader more as a declaration of\u00a0\u00a0continuity over change.<\/p>\n

“Khamenei is considered someone who is close to the Revolutionary Guards and has been groomed within the system as a successor,” Dienstbier said. Accordingly, Gulf governments assume that Iran’s current policy will continue.<\/p>\n

“No one in the Gulf is currently expecting a fundamental change in political course,” Dienstbier said. He added that it remains unclear how Khamenei, who\u00a0had not previously held political office, will act as supreme leader.<\/p>\n

Sons offered a similar analysis of the situation. “Khamenei is seen as a clear representative of the existing establishment<\/a> and thus as a figure who could continue his father’s policies.” He added: “At the same time, Khamenei has close ties to the\u00a0Revolutionary Guards<\/a> and is therefore perceived as a hard-liner.”<\/p>\n

Sons remains optimistic that a semblance of the old order could be restored around the Persian Gulf. “On the one hand, Khamenei poses a challenge to the security of the Gulf states,” he said, “but, on the other hand, he is a figure who is at least reasonably well-known.” Therefore, there may be hope that relations with Iran can be “managed” politically in the long term, Sons said.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video<\/a><\/p>\n

This article was originally written in German.<\/em><\/p>\n

[analyse_source url=”https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/as-iran-war-rages-gulf-neighbors-worry-about-security\/a-76349156″]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[analyse_image type=”featured” src=”https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76338262_6.jpg”] https:\/\/p.dw.com\/p\/5ALu0 The war is likely to have long-lasting effects on relations around the Gulf [File photo: January 2025]Image: Hossein Beris\/Middle East Images\/AFP\/Getty Images As the US-Israel war on Iran marks two weeks, much is at stake for the region. On Friday,\u00a0Iran continued to launch strikes on\u00a0Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. Iran’s new supreme […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[226,74],"class_list":["post-1826259","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","tag-crawlmanager","tag-dw-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1826259","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1826259"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1826259\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1826259"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1826259"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1826259"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}