{"id":1823960,"date":"2026-03-12T07:08:40","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T04:08:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1823960"},"modified":"2026-03-12T07:08:40","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T04:08:40","slug":"shipping-in-limbo-as-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-deepens","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1823960","title":{"rendered":"Shipping in limbo as Strait of Hormuz crisis deepens"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76308083_6.jpg&#8221;]<\/p>\n<article class=\"sk6xmai\">\n<div class=\"content-area sa7l9jt s9mg977\">\n<section data-tracking-name=\"sharing-icons-inline\" class=\"c75t7t0 hh5424a in-line closed\">\n<div class=\"copy-button-wrapper closed\"><span class=\"svdcmki\">https:\/\/p.dw.com\/p\/5A5Yy<\/span><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<figure class=\"s4bcs45\"><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76308083_800.webp 50w, https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76308083_801.webp 129w, https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76308083_802.webp 352w, https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76308083_803.webp 575w\" media=\"(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 575px)\" height=\"100\" width=\"100\" \/><figcaption class=\"c1oedowi lofg86o m4xla6a s16w0xvi rcjjkz7 w128axg5 b1fzgn0z\">Hundreds of thousands of tons of fertilizer are stuck in Gulf countries due to the Iran war<small class=\"copyright c19ed66t ihwmx5 idu7i8u lxmvniw icns9en rcjjkz7 w128axg5 b1fzgn0z\">Image: Simon Wohlfahrt\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div data-tracking-skip=\"true\" data-tracking-name=\"rich-text\" class=\"c17j8gzx rc0m0op r1ebneao s198y7xq rich-text l1evdo4u blt0baw s16w0xvi rcjjkz7 w128axg5 b1fzgn0z\">\n<p>The world is naturally fixated on the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/oil-gas-industry\/t-19021263\">oil and liquefied natural gas<\/a> (LNG) tankers missing from the Strait of Hormuz due to the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/us-israel-war-with-iran\/t-76168615\">Iran war<\/a>. After all, the narrow waterway between <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran\/t-18996175\">Iran<\/a> and Oman carries around a fifth of global crude and LNG exports\u00a0from the Gulf to the rest of the world.<\/p>\n<p>The more fragile cargo, however, is the fertilizer that helps feed the world and the food imports that keep Arabian Gulf states like the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/united-arab-emirates\/t-67582701\">United Arab Emirates<\/a>, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain and <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/saudi-arabia\/t-19155637\">Saudi Arabia<\/a> alive.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Gulf nations\u00a0account for 20% of global traded volumes of\u00a0key fertilizers such as ammonia,\u00a0phosphates\u00a0and sulfur, data from\u00a0the\u00a0maritime intelligence company Signal Group show.<\/p>\n<p>Nearly half the world&#8217;s traded urea \u2014 the\u00a0most widely used nitrogen fertilizer \u2014\u00a0comes from the Gulf region, with <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/qatar\/t-63715610\">Qatar<\/a>\u00a0accounting for one-tenth of the global supply, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.<\/p>\n<p>When QatarEnergy last week halted production after <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran-attacks-on-gulf-oil-and-gas-sites-trigger-energy-fears\/a-76199281\">Iranian strikes<\/a> on Ras Laffan, the world&#8217;s biggest LNG and fertilizer hub, hundreds of thousands of tons of\u00a0key fertilizer nutrients and precursors were sidelined.<\/p>\n<p>The compounding effects of the Iran war threaten\u00a0the third major risk\u00a0to <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/global-food-security\/t-19020431\">global food security<\/a> in six years, after the COVID-19 pandemic and\u00a0Moscow&#8217;s\u00a0seizure of\u00a0farmland and ports used to export Ukrainian grain at the start of Russia&#8217;s war in Ukraine in 2022.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Since the latest conflict began, fertilizer prices have risen 10 to 30%, although they&#8217;re still some 40% lower than in the weeks after Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine.<\/p>\n<h2>Fertilizer shortages could impact crop yields<\/h2>\n<p>According to UNCTAD, the United Nations agency\u00a0that helps developing nations integrate into the global economy, about\u00a01.33\u00a0million tons of fertilizer\u00a0are\u00a0exported through Hormuz every month.\u00a0So a 30-day closure of the strait could be enough to trigger\u00a0shortages\u00a0and yield risks for nitrogen-dependent crops like\u00a0corn, wheat\u00a0and rice.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Higher prices will affect crop choice,&#8221;\u00a0Joseph Glauber, senior research fellow at the Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), told DW. &#8220;Farmers may go with the crop that needs less fertilizer rather than the one that needs nitrogen-intensive fertilizer, to avoid higher input costs.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Glauber added that farmers, particularly in poorer countries, may simply cut their overall fertilizer use, which could hurt crop output.<\/p>\n<p>Despite US President Donald Trump&#8217;s insistence this week\u00a0that the Iran war is &#8220;very nearly over,&#8221; Iran on Wednesday fired on at least three\u00a0vessels in or near Hormuz, according to the United Kingdom&#8217;s Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), in a sign that Tehran remains determined to keep the Strait virtually closed.<\/p>\n<div class=\"vjs-wrapper embed big\">\n<h2 aria-label=\"Embedded video \u2014 Shipping in limbo as Strait of Hormuz crisis deepens\" class=\"headline\">Shipping in limbo as Strait of Hormuz crisis deepens<\/h2>\n<p><video id=\"video-76292700\" controls playsinline preload=\"none\" poster=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mNkYAAAAAYAAjCB0C8AAAAASUVORK5CYII=\" data-id=\"76292700\" data-posterurl=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76303314_605.webp\" data-duration=\"02:45\"><source src=\"https:\/\/hlsvod.dw.com\/i\/vps\/webvideos\/ENG\/2026\/BUSI\/BUSIENG260311_QWIHapagLlyod_CMS_01SMW_,AVC_480x270,AVC_512x288,AVC_640x360,AVC_960x540,AVC_1280x720,AVC_1920x1080,.mp4.csmil\/master.m3u8\" type=\"application\/x-mpegURL\" \/><\/video><\/div>\n<p>Additional strikes were reported overnight into Thursday, including on a container ship and tankers in the broader Gulf region.<\/p>\n<p>The longer Hormuz remains out of bounds for commercial shipping, the more global fertilizer supply chains will begin to seize up, say commodity analysts.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;A prolonged disruption would significantly tighten fertilizer availability in major import-dependent regions such as <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/brazil\/t-19068233\">Brazil<\/a>, <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/india\/t-18996071\">India<\/a>, South Asia\u00a0and parts of the EU,&#8221; warned Dutch bank ING in a research note earlier this month.<\/p>\n<p>Other fertilizer producers, such as <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/russia\/t-19065060\">Russia<\/a>, <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/china\/t-18480887\">China,<\/a> the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/united-states-of-america\/t-19065189\">United States<\/a>\u00a0and Morocco,\u00a0have limited spare capacity and will struggle to instantly ramp up production to make up the shortfall. China has put\u00a0import restrictions on phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers, but could now be pressured to relax them.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Nitrogen\u00a0can be produced anywhere where there&#8217;s natural gas or coal, unlike potash or phosphates, where you are dependent\u00a0on mineral deposits to mine,&#8221; Glauber, a former senior economist at the US Department of Agriculture, said.\u00a0&#8220;But the high cost of natural gas is really the issue,&#8221; as production increases could be uneconomical.<\/p>\n<h2>Rising oil prices to\u00a0push food costs\u00a0higher<\/h2>\n<p>Beyond fertilizer constraints lies oil&#8217;s dominant role in shaping food costs, powering everything from farm machinery and trucks that move harvests to processing plants that turn crops into food and refrigeration. Every stage of food production is\u00a0now exposed to surging energy prices.<\/p>\n<p>With Brent crude still elevated around $100\u00a0(\u20ac87.30) after wild swings to $119.50, the pain is already measurable at the pump.\u00a0US West Coast diesel has surged to $4.69\u00a0per gallon, a 14% jump over the past two weeks,\u00a0while\u00a0diesel prices in <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/germany\/t-17871182\">Germany<\/a> now exceed\u00a0\u20ac2.10 ($2.43) per liter, a one-fifth rise in just days.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Asian economies, which\u00a0import the vast majority of Gulf oil, like China, Japan and South Korea, are also seeing sharp increases in fuel prices. India&#8217;s\u00a0government, meanwhile,\u00a0has vowed to freeze diesel and gasoline\u00a0prices, shielding consumers and commercial transport from soaring costs.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/international-monetary-fund-imf\/t-17454404\">International Monetary Fund<\/a>(IMF)\u00a0 Chief\u00a0Kristalina Georgieva warned in an interview with Bloomberg last week that a sustained 10% increase in energy prices persisting for a year could add 0.4 percentage points to worldwide\u00a0inflation and shave up to 0.2% off global\u00a0economic growth.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Energy indirectly makes up about 50% of the cost of food,&#8221; IFPRI&#8217;s Glauber told DW. &#8220;After most\u00a0countries experienced\u00a0high rates of food inflation in 2023\/4, prices haven&#8217;t come down;\u00a0it&#8217;s just the rate of increase has been\u00a0falling.&#8221;<\/p>\n<figure class=\"placeholder-image master_landscape big\"><img data-format=\"MASTER_LANDSCAPE\" data-id=\"76308053\" data-url=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76308053_${formatId}.jpg\" data-aspect-ratio=\"16\/9\" alt=\"A farmer uses a tractor to pull a hoeing machine at a potato farm in Saint-Jean-d'Illac, France, on May 22, 2025\"><figcaption class=\"img-caption\">Farmers face a double whammy of higher energy and fertilizer costs<small class=\"copyright\">Image: Philippe Lopez\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Import-dependent nations to suffer most<\/h2>\n<p>The human cost of the Iran war will fall unevenly, with the poorest and most import-dependent countries absorbing the shock of fertilizer shortages and soaring energy prices.<\/p>\n<p>India is among the most exposed, as it\u00a0relies on the Gulf for up to two-thirds of its nitrogen fertilizer imports, including a large share of urea. A shortage of fertilizer would leave the upcoming monsoon planting season vulnerable, sparking sharply higher production costs for rice, wheat\u00a0and other staples that feed 1.45 billion people.<\/p>\n<p>Brazil, one of the world&#8217;s largest agricultural exporters, depends on Gulf-sourced urea for roughly 40% of its nitrogen needs. Any sustained disruption threatens soy and maize yields at a moment when global supplies are already tight.<\/p>\n<p>Sub-Saharan <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/africa\/t-19246763\">Africa<\/a>\u00a0faces the gravest risk in the longer term.\u00a0Many African countries already use fertilizer at rates far below those needed for decent yields. So\u00a0even modest price increases could force smallholders to cut usage further, depressing\u00a0harvests and deepening chronic hunger.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iranians-caught-between-anger-fear-and-desire-for-change\/a-76104894\">Inside Iran<\/a>, inflation was already over 40%\u00a0before the conflict, according to Bloomberg, with food prices rising even higher.\u00a0Disruptions to imports, energy costs and domestic logistics are likely to further elevate food inflation, intensifying hardship for millions of people.<\/p>\n<p>Gulf states, which import 80 to 90% of their food \u2014 from grains and meat to dairy and vegetable oils \u2014 are also acutely dependent on Hormuz for inbound shipments. A prolonged closure could drain strategic reserves within months, forcing rationing or costly rerouting via the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman.<\/p>\n<p><em>Edited by: Ashutosh Pandey<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<div data-tracking-skip=\"true\" data-tracking-name=\"rich-text\" class=\"c17j8gzx rc0m0op r1ebneao s198y7xq rich-text l1evdo4u blt0baw s16w0xvi rcjjkz7 w128axg5 b1fzgn0z\">\n<p>The world is naturally fixated on the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/oil-gas-industry\/t-19021263\">oil and liquefied natural gas<\/a> (LNG) tankers missing from the Strait of Hormuz due to the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/us-israel-war-with-iran\/t-76168615\">Iran war<\/a>. After all, the narrow waterway between <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran\/t-18996175\">Iran<\/a> and Oman carries around a fifth of global crude and LNG exports\u00a0from the Gulf to the rest of the world.<\/p>\n<p>The more fragile cargo, however, is the fertilizer that helps feed the world and the food imports that keep Arabian Gulf states like the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/united-arab-emirates\/t-67582701\">United Arab Emirates<\/a>, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain and <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/saudi-arabia\/t-19155637\">Saudi Arabia<\/a> alive.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Gulf nations\u00a0account for 20% of global traded volumes of\u00a0key fertilizers such as ammonia,\u00a0phosphates\u00a0and sulfur, data from\u00a0the\u00a0maritime intelligence company Signal Group show.<\/p>\n<p>Nearly half the world&#8217;s traded urea \u2014 the\u00a0most widely used nitrogen fertilizer \u2014\u00a0comes from the Gulf region, with <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/qatar\/t-63715610\">Qatar<\/a>\u00a0accounting for one-tenth of the global supply, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.<\/p>\n<p>When QatarEnergy last week halted production after <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran-attacks-on-gulf-oil-and-gas-sites-trigger-energy-fears\/a-76199281\">Iranian strikes<\/a> on Ras Laffan, the world&#8217;s biggest LNG and fertilizer hub, hundreds of thousands of tons of\u00a0key fertilizer nutrients and precursors were sidelined.<\/p>\n<p>The compounding effects of the Iran war threaten\u00a0the third major risk\u00a0to <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/global-food-security\/t-19020431\">global food security<\/a> in six years, after the COVID-19 pandemic and\u00a0Moscow&#8217;s\u00a0seizure of\u00a0farmland and ports used to export Ukrainian grain at the start of Russia&#8217;s war in Ukraine in 2022.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Since the latest conflict began, fertilizer prices have risen 10 to 30%, although they&#8217;re still some 40% lower than in the weeks after Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine.<\/p>\n<h2>Fertilizer shortages could impact crop yields<\/h2>\n<p>According to UNCTAD, the United Nations agency\u00a0that helps developing nations integrate into the global economy, about\u00a01.33\u00a0million tons of fertilizer\u00a0are\u00a0exported through Hormuz every month.\u00a0So a 30-day closure of the strait could be enough to trigger\u00a0shortages\u00a0and yield risks for nitrogen-dependent crops like\u00a0corn, wheat\u00a0and rice.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Higher prices will affect crop choice,&#8221;\u00a0Joseph Glauber, senior research fellow at the Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), told DW. &#8220;Farmers may go with the crop that needs less fertilizer rather than the one that needs nitrogen-intensive fertilizer, to avoid higher input costs.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Glauber added that farmers, particularly in poorer countries, may simply cut their overall fertilizer use, which could hurt crop output.<\/p>\n<p>Despite US President Donald Trump&#8217;s insistence this week\u00a0that the Iran war is &#8220;very nearly over,&#8221; Iran on Wednesday fired on at least three\u00a0vessels in or near Hormuz, according to the United Kingdom&#8217;s Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), in a sign that Tehran remains determined to keep the Strait virtually closed.<\/p>\n<div class=\"vjs-wrapper embed big\">\n<h2 aria-label=\"Embedded video \u2014 Shipping in limbo as Strait of Hormuz crisis deepens\" class=\"headline\">Shipping in limbo as Strait of Hormuz crisis deepens<\/h2>\n<p><video id=\"video-76292700\" controls playsinline preload=\"none\" poster=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mNkYAAAAAYAAjCB0C8AAAAASUVORK5CYII=\" data-id=\"76292700\" data-posterurl=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76303314_605.webp\" data-duration=\"02:45\"><source src=\"https:\/\/hlsvod.dw.com\/i\/vps\/webvideos\/ENG\/2026\/BUSI\/BUSIENG260311_QWIHapagLlyod_CMS_01SMW_,AVC_480x270,AVC_512x288,AVC_640x360,AVC_960x540,AVC_1280x720,AVC_1920x1080,.mp4.csmil\/master.m3u8\" type=\"application\/x-mpegURL\" \/><\/video><\/div>\n<p>Additional strikes were reported overnight into Thursday, including on a container ship and tankers in the broader Gulf region.<\/p>\n<p>The longer Hormuz remains out of bounds for commercial shipping, the more global fertilizer supply chains will begin to seize up, say commodity analysts.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;A prolonged disruption would significantly tighten fertilizer availability in major import-dependent regions such as <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/brazil\/t-19068233\">Brazil<\/a>, <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/india\/t-18996071\">India<\/a>, South Asia\u00a0and parts of the EU,&#8221; warned Dutch bank ING in a research note earlier this month.<\/p>\n<p>Other fertilizer producers, such as <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/russia\/t-19065060\">Russia<\/a>, <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/china\/t-18480887\">China,<\/a> the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/united-states-of-america\/t-19065189\">United States<\/a>\u00a0and Morocco,\u00a0have limited spare capacity and will struggle to instantly ramp up production to make up the shortfall. China has put\u00a0import restrictions on phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers, but could now be pressured to relax them.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Nitrogen\u00a0can be produced anywhere where there&#8217;s natural gas or coal, unlike potash or phosphates, where you are dependent\u00a0on mineral deposits to mine,&#8221; Glauber, a former senior economist at the US Department of Agriculture, said.\u00a0&#8220;But the high cost of natural gas is really the issue,&#8221; as production increases could be uneconomical.<\/p>\n<h2>Rising oil prices to\u00a0push food costs\u00a0higher<\/h2>\n<p>Beyond fertilizer constraints lies oil&#8217;s dominant role in shaping food costs, powering everything from farm machinery and trucks that move harvests to processing plants that turn crops into food and refrigeration. Every stage of food production is\u00a0now exposed to surging energy prices.<\/p>\n<p>With Brent crude still elevated around $100\u00a0(\u20ac87.30) after wild swings to $119.50, the pain is already measurable at the pump.\u00a0US West Coast diesel has surged to $4.69\u00a0per gallon, a 14% jump over the past two weeks,\u00a0while\u00a0diesel prices in <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/germany\/t-17871182\">Germany<\/a> now exceed\u00a0\u20ac2.10 ($2.43) per liter, a one-fifth rise in just days.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Asian economies, which\u00a0import the vast majority of Gulf oil, like China, Japan and South Korea, are also seeing sharp increases in fuel prices. India&#8217;s\u00a0government, meanwhile,\u00a0has vowed to freeze diesel and gasoline\u00a0prices, shielding consumers and commercial transport from soaring costs.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/international-monetary-fund-imf\/t-17454404\">International Monetary Fund<\/a>(IMF)\u00a0 Chief\u00a0Kristalina Georgieva warned in an interview with Bloomberg last week that a sustained 10% increase in energy prices persisting for a year could add 0.4 percentage points to worldwide\u00a0inflation and shave up to 0.2% off global\u00a0economic growth.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Energy indirectly makes up about 50% of the cost of food,&#8221; IFPRI&#8217;s Glauber told DW. &#8220;After most\u00a0countries experienced\u00a0high rates of food inflation in 2023\/4, prices haven&#8217;t come down;\u00a0it&#8217;s just the rate of increase has been\u00a0falling.&#8221;<\/p>\n<figure class=\"placeholder-image master_landscape big\"><img data-format=\"MASTER_LANDSCAPE\" data-id=\"76308053\" data-url=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76308053_${formatId}.jpg\" data-aspect-ratio=\"16\/9\" alt=\"A farmer uses a tractor to pull a hoeing machine at a potato farm in Saint-Jean-d'Illac, France, on May 22, 2025\"><figcaption class=\"img-caption\">Farmers face a double whammy of higher energy and fertilizer costs<small class=\"copyright\">Image: Philippe Lopez\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Import-dependent nations to suffer most<\/h2>\n<p>The human cost of the Iran war will fall unevenly, with the poorest and most import-dependent countries absorbing the shock of fertilizer shortages and soaring energy prices.<\/p>\n<p>India is among the most exposed, as it\u00a0relies on the Gulf for up to two-thirds of its nitrogen fertilizer imports, including a large share of urea. A shortage of fertilizer would leave the upcoming monsoon planting season vulnerable, sparking sharply higher production costs for rice, wheat\u00a0and other staples that feed 1.45 billion people.<\/p>\n<p>Brazil, one of the world&#8217;s largest agricultural exporters, depends on Gulf-sourced urea for roughly 40% of its nitrogen needs. Any sustained disruption threatens soy and maize yields at a moment when global supplies are already tight.<\/p>\n<p>Sub-Saharan <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/africa\/t-19246763\">Africa<\/a>\u00a0faces the gravest risk in the longer term.\u00a0Many African countries already use fertilizer at rates far below those needed for decent yields. So\u00a0even modest price increases could force smallholders to cut usage further, depressing\u00a0harvests and deepening chronic hunger.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iranians-caught-between-anger-fear-and-desire-for-change\/a-76104894\">Inside Iran<\/a>, inflation was already over 40%\u00a0before the conflict, according to Bloomberg, with food prices rising even higher.\u00a0Disruptions to imports, energy costs and domestic logistics are likely to further elevate food inflation, intensifying hardship for millions of people.<\/p>\n<p>Gulf states, which import 80 to 90% of their food \u2014 from grains and meat to dairy and vegetable oils \u2014 are also acutely dependent on Hormuz for inbound shipments. A prolonged closure could drain strategic reserves within months, forcing rationing or costly rerouting via the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman.<\/p>\n<p><em>Edited by: Ashutosh Pandey<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>The world is naturally fixated on the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/oil-gas-industry\/t-19021263\">oil and liquefied natural gas<\/a> (LNG) tankers missing from the Strait of Hormuz due to the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/us-israel-war-with-iran\/t-76168615\">Iran war<\/a>. After all, the narrow waterway between <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran\/t-18996175\">Iran<\/a> and Oman carries around a fifth of global crude and LNG exports\u00a0from the Gulf to the rest of the world.<\/p>\n<p>The more fragile cargo, however, is the fertilizer that helps feed the world and the food imports that keep Arabian Gulf states like the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/united-arab-emirates\/t-67582701\">United Arab Emirates<\/a>, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain and <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/saudi-arabia\/t-19155637\">Saudi Arabia<\/a> alive.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Gulf nations\u00a0account for 20% of global traded volumes of\u00a0key fertilizers such as ammonia,\u00a0phosphates\u00a0and sulfur, data from\u00a0the\u00a0maritime intelligence company Signal Group show.<\/p>\n<p>Nearly half the world&#8217;s traded urea \u2014 the\u00a0most widely used nitrogen fertilizer \u2014\u00a0comes from the Gulf region, with <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/qatar\/t-63715610\">Qatar<\/a>\u00a0accounting for one-tenth of the global supply, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.<\/p>\n<p>When QatarEnergy last week halted production after <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran-attacks-on-gulf-oil-and-gas-sites-trigger-energy-fears\/a-76199281\">Iranian strikes<\/a> on Ras Laffan, the world&#8217;s biggest LNG and fertilizer hub, hundreds of thousands of tons of\u00a0key fertilizer nutrients and precursors were sidelined.<\/p>\n<p>The compounding effects of the Iran war threaten\u00a0the third major risk\u00a0to <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/global-food-security\/t-19020431\">global food security<\/a> in six years, after the COVID-19 pandemic and\u00a0Moscow&#8217;s\u00a0seizure of\u00a0farmland and ports used to export Ukrainian grain at the start of Russia&#8217;s war in Ukraine in 2022.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Since the latest conflict began, fertilizer prices have risen 10 to 30%, although they&#8217;re still some 40% lower than in the weeks after Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>According to UNCTAD, the United Nations agency\u00a0that helps developing nations integrate into the global economy, about\u00a01.33\u00a0million tons of fertilizer\u00a0are\u00a0exported through Hormuz every month.\u00a0So a 30-day closure of the strait could be enough to trigger\u00a0shortages\u00a0and yield risks for nitrogen-dependent crops like\u00a0corn, wheat\u00a0and rice.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Higher prices will affect crop choice,&#8221;\u00a0Joseph Glauber, senior research fellow at the Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), told DW. &#8220;Farmers may go with the crop that needs less fertilizer rather than the one that needs nitrogen-intensive fertilizer, to avoid higher input costs.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Glauber added that farmers, particularly in poorer countries, may simply cut their overall fertilizer use, which could hurt crop output.<\/p>\n<p>Despite US President Donald Trump&#8217;s insistence this week\u00a0that the Iran war is &#8220;very nearly over,&#8221; Iran on Wednesday fired on at least three\u00a0vessels in or near Hormuz, according to the United Kingdom&#8217;s Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), in a sign that Tehran remains determined to keep the Strait virtually closed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"vjs-no-js\">To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that <a href=\"https:\/\/videojs.com\/html5-video-support\/\" target=\"_blank\">supports HTML5 video<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Additional strikes were reported overnight into Thursday, including on a container ship and tankers in the broader Gulf region.<\/p>\n<p>The longer Hormuz remains out of bounds for commercial shipping, the more global fertilizer supply chains will begin to seize up, say commodity analysts.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;A prolonged disruption would significantly tighten fertilizer availability in major import-dependent regions such as <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/brazil\/t-19068233\">Brazil<\/a>, <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/india\/t-18996071\">India<\/a>, South Asia\u00a0and parts of the EU,&#8221; warned Dutch bank ING in a research note earlier this month.<\/p>\n<p>Other fertilizer producers, such as <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/russia\/t-19065060\">Russia<\/a>, <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/china\/t-18480887\">China,<\/a> the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/united-states-of-america\/t-19065189\">United States<\/a>\u00a0and Morocco,\u00a0have limited spare capacity and will struggle to instantly ramp up production to make up the shortfall. China has put\u00a0import restrictions on phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers, but could now be pressured to relax them.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Nitrogen\u00a0can be produced anywhere where there&#8217;s natural gas or coal, unlike potash or phosphates, where you are dependent\u00a0on mineral deposits to mine,&#8221; Glauber, a former senior economist at the US Department of Agriculture, said.\u00a0&#8220;But the high cost of natural gas is really the issue,&#8221; as production increases could be uneconomical.<\/p>\n<p>Beyond fertilizer constraints lies oil&#8217;s dominant role in shaping food costs, powering everything from farm machinery and trucks that move harvests to processing plants that turn crops into food and refrigeration. Every stage of food production is\u00a0now exposed to surging energy prices.<\/p>\n<p>With Brent crude still elevated around $100\u00a0(\u20ac87.30) after wild swings to $119.50, the pain is already measurable at the pump.\u00a0US West Coast diesel has surged to $4.69\u00a0per gallon, a 14% jump over the past two weeks,\u00a0while\u00a0diesel prices in <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/germany\/t-17871182\">Germany<\/a> now exceed\u00a0\u20ac2.10 ($2.43) per liter, a one-fifth rise in just days.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Asian economies, which\u00a0import the vast majority of Gulf oil, like China, Japan and South Korea, are also seeing sharp increases in fuel prices. India&#8217;s\u00a0government, meanwhile,\u00a0has vowed to freeze diesel and gasoline\u00a0prices, shielding consumers and commercial transport from soaring costs.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/international-monetary-fund-imf\/t-17454404\">International Monetary Fund<\/a>(IMF)\u00a0 Chief\u00a0Kristalina Georgieva warned in an interview with Bloomberg last week that a sustained 10% increase in energy prices persisting for a year could add 0.4 percentage points to worldwide\u00a0inflation and shave up to 0.2% off global\u00a0economic growth.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Energy indirectly makes up about 50% of the cost of food,&#8221; IFPRI&#8217;s Glauber told DW. &#8220;After most\u00a0countries experienced\u00a0high rates of food inflation in 2023\/4, prices haven&#8217;t come down;\u00a0it&#8217;s just the rate of increase has been\u00a0falling.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The human cost of the Iran war will fall unevenly, with the poorest and most import-dependent countries absorbing the shock of fertilizer shortages and soaring energy prices.<\/p>\n<p>India is among the most exposed, as it\u00a0relies on the Gulf for up to two-thirds of its nitrogen fertilizer imports, including a large share of urea. A shortage of fertilizer would leave the upcoming monsoon planting season vulnerable, sparking sharply higher production costs for rice, wheat\u00a0and other staples that feed 1.45 billion people.<\/p>\n<p>Brazil, one of the world&#8217;s largest agricultural exporters, depends on Gulf-sourced urea for roughly 40% of its nitrogen needs. Any sustained disruption threatens soy and maize yields at a moment when global supplies are already tight.<\/p>\n<p>Sub-Saharan <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/africa\/t-19246763\">Africa<\/a>\u00a0faces the gravest risk in the longer term.\u00a0Many African countries already use fertilizer at rates far below those needed for decent yields. So\u00a0even modest price increases could force smallholders to cut usage further, depressing\u00a0harvests and deepening chronic hunger.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iranians-caught-between-anger-fear-and-desire-for-change\/a-76104894\">Inside Iran<\/a>, inflation was already over 40%\u00a0before the conflict, according to Bloomberg, with food prices rising even higher.\u00a0Disruptions to imports, energy costs and domestic logistics are likely to further elevate food inflation, intensifying hardship for millions of people.<\/p>\n<p>Gulf states, which import 80 to 90% of their food \u2014 from grains and meat to dairy and vegetable oils \u2014 are also acutely dependent on Hormuz for inbound shipments. A prolonged closure could drain strategic reserves within months, forcing rationing or costly rerouting via the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman.<\/p>\n<p><em>Edited by: Ashutosh Pandey<\/em><\/p>\n<p>[analyse_source url=&#8221;https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran-us-israel-war-food-crisis-prices-fertilizer-energy-costs-inflation\/a-76286348&#8243;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76308083_6.jpg&#8221;] https:\/\/p.dw.com\/p\/5A5Yy Hundreds of thousands of tons of fertilizer are stuck in Gulf countries due to the Iran warImage: Simon Wohlfahrt\/AFP\/Getty Images The world is naturally fixated on the oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers missing from the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war. After all, the narrow waterway between [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[226,74],"class_list":["post-1823960","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","tag-crawlmanager","tag-dw-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1823960","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1823960"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1823960\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1823960"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1823960"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1823960"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}