As Tadej Poga\u010dar disappeared into the dust hanging over the white roads of Tuscany, on the other side of the Alps was Jonas Vingegaard.<\/p>\n
No one knows what the Dane was really thinking as Poga\u010dar\u2019s long-range attack at Strade Bianche turned into another solo demolition derby to open the 2026 season, but Vingegaard\u2019s own campaign began Sunday at Paris-Nice with much less fanfare.<\/p>\n
After a winter of discontent that included a crash, illness, and renewed questions about his decision to attempt the Giro-Tour double, Vingegaard \u2014 in trademark Danish cool \u2014 did not give much away.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt was initially not the plan to be here, but I\u2019m happy to be here. I\u2019ve had a pretty decent preparation, but we\u2019ll see in the race,\u201d he told CyclingProNet<\/em>. \u201cThere are a lot of uphill finishes and hard days for the GC, it will be interesting to see how it will be. We have a very strong team, and we are looking forward to racing here.\u201d<\/p>\n Yet as the two-time Tour de France champion opens his season at the \u201cRace to the Sun,\u201d the Dane is abandoning the familiar Visma-Lease a Bike blueprint that has placed him first or second in every Tour since 2021.<\/p>\n Instead, he is rolling the dice on a radical new strategy that at first seemed crazy: racing\u00a0the Giro d\u2019Italia before targeting the Tour.<\/p>\n When it was rolled out in January, that bet seemed like a desperation move.<\/p>\n But Vingegaard has his reasons, and he believes the Giro could unlock the edge he needs to challenge cycling\u2019s dominant force.<\/p>\n And after what Poga\u010dar just did at Strade Bianche, the logic behind that gamble suddenly might make more sense.<\/p>\n Ever since exploding onto the scene a half-decade\u00a0ago, Vingegaard followed a near-identical road map to the Tour de France each summer.<\/p>\n Altitude camps, a carefully controlled spring calendar, and a buildup designed for peak power in July.<\/p>\n The strategy delivered remarkable consistency. Vingegaard won the Tour twice and stood on the podium every year since 2021, becoming the only rider capable of repeatedly pushing Poga\u010dar to the limit in the high mountains.<\/p>\n But Poga\u010dar evolved toward GOAT status, and it\u2019s forcing Visma-Lease a Bike to rethink its approach to July.<\/p>\n In 2026, that means the unconventional bet of sending Vingegaard to the Giro before targeting the Tour.<\/p>\n \u201cI wanted to try something different in the run-up to the Tour,\u201d Vingegaard told Sporza<\/em> before Paris-Nice started Sunday.<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019ve always noticed that my absolute power is higher in a second grand tour,\u201d he said. \u201cSo maybe that will make me reach a higher level in the Tour now.\u201d<\/p>\n Why now? It\u2019s partly because they\u2019ve been trying for the past 48 months clearly isn\u2019t working.<\/p>\n And the team\u2019s braintrust is hoping that a relatively \u201clight\u201d Giro route against a field of rivals Vingegaard has routinely dispatched\u00a0could mean he\u2019d exit May without burning too many matches.<\/p>\n So why not try something different? They\u2019ve got nothing to lose, and perhaps the pink jersey to gain.<\/p>\n Inside Visma-Lease a Bike, the Giro-first strategy has been under discussion for months.<\/p>\n The team\u2019s brain trust has been studying the data since the 2025 Tour ended. Unlike many in the peloton, Visma still believes it can solve the Poga\u010dar puzzle. After all, they have done it twice before.<\/p>\n This is just a new take on the eternal problem.<\/p>\n Grischa Niermann, speaking during the team\u2019s January training camp, made it clear that racing the Giro is not about avoiding Poga\u010dar, but beating him.<\/p>\n \u201cWe also definitely believe he can be better in the Tour than in the Giro. Our approach over the last five years has worked, because he has finished on the podium every year, but this is also a new approach,\u201d Niermann told IDL<\/em>.<\/p>\n The Giro-Tour double remains one of cycling\u2019s most punishing challenges.<\/p>\n Until Poga\u010dar pulled it off in 2024, it had been 25 years since Marco Pantani did what many believe was impossible in the benchmark in modern cycling.<\/p>\n But Visma\u2019s data nerds crunched the numbers from Vingegaard\u2019s Tour-Vuelta doubles from 2023 and again last year, when he won, and his power output was higher after putting three weeks in his legs.<\/p>\n They\u2019re convinced that the data backs them up.<\/p>\n \u201cTadej proved two years ago that it\u2019s possible, and we are convinced Jonas can do it too,\u201d Niermann said. \u201cWe don\u2019t have a guarantee, but we do have the data from his Tour-Vuelta combinations, and that makes us believe.\u201d<\/p>\n Riders who attempt the double often arrive in July fatigued after three weeks of racing across Italy. And that\u2019s assuming they don\u2019t crash, fall ill, or abandon with nothing.<\/p>\n Yet Visma believes the opposite could happen.<\/p>\n Rather than draining Vingegaard, the Giro could serve as the final conditioning block that gives him the extra gear he needs to match \u2014 and perhaps beat \u2014 Poga\u010dar.<\/p>\n Unconventional? Yes.<\/p>\n But after watching the Slovenian rip apart the peloton at Strade Bianche, it\u2019s obvious that sticking to the old formula isn\u2019t going to work anyway.<\/p>\n Vingegaard begins his campaign at Paris-Nice this week following a winter that included several disruptions that he hopes are now behind him.<\/p>\n A crash involving a following fan in Spain in January triggered a massive online debate about pros training on the open roads. That was followed by an illness that briefly interrupted his preparation, though he downplayed its impact.<\/p>\n \u201cThey weren\u2019t that serious. It looked worse than it was,\u201d he said of the crash. \u201cThe next day I was able to train again.\u201d<\/p>\n Illness forced adjustments to his training schedule, however, meaning he missed a planned season debut at the UAE Tour.<\/p>\n \u201cAfter that fall, I did get sick, so I had to change my plans a bit. But that wasn\u2019t such a big backlash,\u201d he told Sporza<\/em>. \u201cMy workouts went well, and I hope my form is good. I\u2019m ready to race.\u201d<\/p>\n Another significant shift came inside the team bus with the shock departure of longtime coach Tim Heemskerk after eight years.<\/p>\n Heemskerk played a key role in Vingegaard\u2019s rise from unknown domestique<\/em> to Tour champion.<\/p>\n \u201cTim is hard to replace. He is one of the best trainers out there,\u201d he said. \u201cI worked very well with Tim during that period. He was more than just my trainer. He is a good friend.<\/p>\n \u201cHis departure is very unfortunate, because I have always enjoyed working with him.\u201d<\/p>\n Vingegaard will now work under Visma performance chief Mathieu Heijboer.<\/p>\n Whether the disruptions prove to be more hurdles on what has often been a rocky road to July remains to be seen. Vingegaard has not had a clean run into the Tour since 2023.<\/p>\n Despite the risks that come with racing in May at the Giro, Vingegaard and Visma are betting the farm on it.<\/p>\n Ultimately, every calculation in modern stage racing leads back to the same question: how do you beat Tadej Poga\u010dar?<\/p>\n Clearly, no one had the answer Saturday in Tuscany as the Slovenian attacked with 80km to go and won a record fourth time.<\/p>\n The UAE star continues to redefine what is possible in modern cycling, and his dominance is forcing Vingegaard and Visma to rethink how to win the Tour.<\/p>\n The Giro-Tour strategy shows the team is not standing still. The old formula is no longer enough.<\/p>\n \u201cWe keep aiming to win the Tour, the biggest race in the world. Beating Tadej in the Tour is the highest thing we can achieve, and that\u2019s what we get up for every morning,\u201d Niermann told IDL<\/em> earlier this year.<\/p>\n \u201cWe were doing well, but ultimately not good enough. Now there\u2019s a different route again, and we have to approach it differently.\u201d<\/p>\n So rather than retread what\u2019s not working and get whipped by Poga\u010dar again, changing things up might not be such a bad idea.<\/p>\n That plan begins quietly at Paris-Nice. Sunday\u2019s opening sprint was just fine for Vingegaard, who\u2019s looking deeper in the week for a chance to win.<\/p>\n The weeklong French stage race marks Vingegaard\u2019s first test of the season before he builds toward the Giro and his brave new pathway toward cycling\u2019s biggest prize.<\/p>\n He will race Volta a Catalunya later this month before disappearing from competition until the Giro. He will not face Poga\u010dar again until July.<\/p>\n If the gamble pays off, the Giro could leave him sharper, stronger, and better prepared for the Tour.<\/p>\n If it fails, it risks leaving him beaten and battered against a rival who has already shown devastating early-season form, and coming away with nothing in both the Giro and Tour.<\/p>\n Despite the stakes, Vingegaard refuses to let Poga\u010dar define his career.<\/p>\n With three grand tour wins, he\u2019s already the greatest Danish cyclist ever, and if it wasn\u2019t for Poga\u010dar, Vingegaard might be on the verge of the Tour\u2019s five-win club instead.<\/p>\n \u201cPogacar unbeatable? Analysts\u00a0can say what they want. I\u2019m not doing that,\u201d he told Sporza<\/em>. \u201cI focus on my own plan.\u201d<\/p>\n There is another prize on the line as well.<\/p>\n A victory at the Giro would make Vingegaard just the eighth rider in cycling history to win all three grand tours. Chris Froome was the last in 2018.<\/p>\n \u201cI really want to go for victory in the Giro,\u201d Vingegaard said. \u201cI have already won the Tour and the Vuelta. So, of course, the Giro is also a great motivation for me.<\/p>\n \u201cNot many riders have done that, so it would be nice.\u201d<\/p>\n And that is something not even Poga\u010dar has done.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n [analyse_source url=”https:\/\/velo.outsideonline.com\/road\/road-racing\/pogacar-is-already-flying-why-vingegaards-giro-bet-is-starting-to-make-sense\/”]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" [analyse_image type=”featured” src=”https:\/\/velo.outsideonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/vingohor.jpg”] Andrew Hood Updated March 9, 2026 02:59AM As Tadej Poga\u010dar disappeared into the dust hanging over the white roads of Tuscany, on the other side of the Alps was Jonas Vingegaard. No one knows what the Dane was really thinking as Poga\u010dar\u2019s long-range attack at Strade Bianche turned into another solo demolition […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[226,71],"class_list":["post-1818231","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","tag-crawlmanager","tag-velo-outsideonline-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1818231","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1818231"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1818231\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1818231"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1818231"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1818231"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Why change now?<\/h2>\n
![\"Vingegaard](\"https:\/\/velo-cdn.outsideonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Z8B_7437-720x480.jpg?width=1920&auto=webp&quality=75&fit=cover\")
Not avoiding Poga\u010dar<\/h2>\n
![\"Grischa](\"https:\/\/velo-cdn.outsideonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Z8D_3244-720x480.jpg?width=1920&auto=webp&quality=75&fit=cover\")
A turbulent winter<\/h2>\n
![\"Vingegaard\"](\"https:\/\/velo-cdn.outsideonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Z8B_7263-720x485.jpg?width=1920&auto=webp&quality=75&fit=cover\")
The Poga\u010dar problem<\/h2>\n
![\"Paul](\"https:\/\/velo-cdn.outsideonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/GettyImages-2264673662-720x480.jpg?width=1920&auto=webp&quality=75&fit=cover\")
A new path toward July<\/h2>\n
![\"Jonas](\"https:\/\/velo-cdn.outsideonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Z8D_9874-720x472.jpg?width=1920&auto=webp&quality=75&fit=cover\")