{"id":1805879,"date":"2026-03-04T06:43:24","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T03:43:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1805879"},"modified":"2026-03-04T06:43:24","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T03:43:24","slug":"us-iran-attack-launched-without-us-congress-un-approval","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1805879","title":{"rendered":"US Iran attack launched without US Congress, UN approval"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76203003_6.jpg&#8221;]<\/p>\n<article class=\"sk6xmai\">\n<div class=\"content-area sa7l9jt s9mg977\">\n<section data-tracking-name=\"sharing-icons-inline\" class=\"c75t7t0 hh5424a in-line closed\">\n<div class=\"copy-button-wrapper closed\"><span class=\"svdcmki\">https:\/\/p.dw.com\/p\/59jlH<\/span><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<figure class=\"s4bcs45\"><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76203003_800.webp 50w, https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76203003_801.webp 129w, https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76203003_802.webp 352w, https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76203003_803.webp 575w\" media=\"(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 575px)\" height=\"100\" width=\"100\" \/><figcaption class=\"c1oedowi lofg86o m4xla6a s16w0xvi rcjjkz7 w128axg5 b1fzgn0z\">The relationship between Iran and Iraq is more than political or financial; some Shiites in Iraq saw Khamenei as their spiritual leader, too<small class=\"copyright c19ed66t ihwmx5 idu7i8u lxmvniw icns9en rcjjkz7 w128axg5 b1fzgn0z\">Image: Ahmad Al-Rubaye\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<div data-tracking-skip=\"true\" data-tracking-name=\"rich-text\" class=\"c17j8gzx rc0m0op r1ebneao s198y7xq rich-text l1evdo4u blt0baw s16w0xvi rcjjkz7 w128axg5 b1fzgn0z\">\n<p>As the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/us-israel-war-with-iran\/t-76168615\">Iran war<\/a> spreads,\u00a0old sectarian rivalries of the kind that brought <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iraq\/t-19037666\">Iraq<\/a> to the brink of civil war two decades ago seem to be making a worrying comeback, locals say.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>You can see it on Iraqi social media, and you can feel it in the street, Wissam Yassin, a digital marketer based in the southern Iraqi city of Basra, observes.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;You can tell that a segment of the Shiite community [in Iraq] views this battle as existential,&#8221; he told DW. &#8220;They see the weakening of Iran as a direct threat to themselves, not only on an emotional level but also in terms of the political power they currently have here. They see any strike against Iran as a strike against them.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, many in Iraq&#8217;s Sunni community seem to perceive the war as &#8220;an opportunity to rearrange the political landscape, as Iranian influence on Iraq gets weaker,&#8221; Wissam, who is Shiite himself, continued. &#8220;And that sectarian division is the most dangerous thing for Iraq.&#8221;\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;What happened after the dictator Saddam Hussein was removed will be a drop in the ocean compared to what will happen here after the death of Khamenei,&#8221; Iraqi journalist Kamal Alaash warned on social media this week. &#8220;What&#8217;s coming will change the region, maybe even borders. Oh lord, let Iraq get through this safely.&#8221;<\/p>\n<figure class=\"placeholder-image master_landscape big\"><img data-format=\"MASTER_LANDSCAPE\" data-id=\"71628888\" data-url=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/71628888_${formatId}.jpg\" data-aspect-ratio=\"16\/9\" alt=\"Iraq's Minister of Foreign Affairs Fuad Hussein pictured at the Munich Security Conference 2025.\"><figcaption class=\"img-caption\">The longer this war goes on, the more Iraq is directly affected, Iraq&#8217;s Minister of Foreign Affairs Fuad Hussein (pictured at the Munich Security Conference) said this week<small class=\"copyright\">Image: Ronka Oberhammer\/DW<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Iraq as a battleground for Iran war<\/h2>\n<p>This is because, for Iraqis, what happens in <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran\/t-18996175\">Iran<\/a> never stays in Iran.<\/p>\n<p>Iraq shares an around 1,500 kilometer border with the neighboring country as well as strong commercial, political and military ties.<\/p>\n<p>It is also the only country in the region that has been attacked by both sides in this conflict, Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at British think tank Chatham House, told DW.<\/p>\n<p>After the US and Israel attacked Iran on the weekend, the latter retaliated by targeting US bases all around the Middle East. In Iraq, <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/who-can-stop-iraq-rogue-militias-from-attacking\/a-56627671\">local paramilitaries<\/a> allied with Iran also tried to attack American targets in their own country.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, US or Israeli forces (it is unclear which country was responsible) also bombed Iran-allied paramilitaries inside Iraq.<\/p>\n<p>At the moment, it looks\u00a0like Iran is going to try to prolong this conflict, something the US doesn&#8217;t seem to have much appetite for, Mansour argued:\u00a0&#8220;Iran will want to take advantage of that [lack of appetite] to raise the costs of decisions made by [US President Donald] Trump. And Iraq will, of course, feel that cost too.&#8221;\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2>Economic danger for Iraq from Iran war<\/h2>\n<p>Besides direct violence, other downstream impacts could be financial.<\/p>\n<p>According to the <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iraq-businessnews.com\/2025\/11\/20\/iran-has-20-of-iraqs-consumer-market\/\" title=\"External link \u2014 Iran-Iraq Joint Chamber of Commerce\">Iran-Iraq Joint Chamber of Commerce<\/a>, bilateral trade\u00a0 between the two countries amounted to $12 billion (\u20ac10.2 billion) in 2024. Iran is thought to supply around a fifth of Iraq&#8217;s consumer goods and known to use Iraq to bypass US sanctions and access foreign currencies.<\/p>\n<p>Instability in Iran will likely upend those economic and trade relationships.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Keep in mind also\u00a0that Iran is Iraq&#8217;s <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran-attacks-on-gulf-oil-and-gas-sites-trigger-energy-fears\/a-76199281\">main energy supplier for electricity<\/a>,&#8221; Mansour pointed out, &#8220;so that&#8217;s a big question going into another hot summer.&#8221;\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In the past, when power and water ran out during the country&#8217;s unbearably hot summers, angry locals were quick to protest.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In 2023, Iranian gas was used to generate around 29% of Iraq&#8217;s electricity, the Netherlands-based think tank\u00a0<a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.clingendael.org\/publication\/misery-loves-company-iraq-and-irans-electricity-and-gas-dependencies\" title=\"External link \u2014 Clingendael Institute reported last year\">\u00a0Clingendael Institute reported last year<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"placeholder-image master_landscape big\"><img data-format=\"MASTER_LANDSCAPE\" data-id=\"76203037\" data-url=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76203037_${formatId}.jpg\" data-aspect-ratio=\"16\/9\" alt=\"A worker is pictured at the Khurmala power plant, south of Arbil, the capital of Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region.\"><figcaption class=\"img-caption\">In Iraqi Kurdistan, the Khor Mor complex, which supplies most of the Kurdish power stations (pictured) and is run by a United Arab Emirates company, has been shut down to protect workers <small class=\"copyright\">Image: Safin Hamid\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&#8220;Iraqis are experienced adjusting to difficult times, so there will be less destabilization in the short term,&#8221; said\u00a0Hamzeh Hadad, an independent Iraqi researcher based in Baghdad. &#8220;But if the war is prolonged, that could change.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The Iraqi state is heavily reliant on oil sales, Haddad pointed out. If blocked tanker traffic through the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/hormuz-strait-iran-israel-war-global-oil-supplies-persian-gulf-china-v2\/a-72952336\">Strait of Hormuz<\/a> eventually stops oil income, that would have an impact on Iraq&#8217;s ability to pay its civil servants, he says.<\/p>\n<p>The country has <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/ukraine-war-oil-prices-middle-east-reforms-end\/a-61675230\">one of the biggest public sector workforces<\/a> in the world and the Iraqi government pays salaries or benefits like pensions to around 7\u00a0million Iraqis.\u00a0During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, after oil prices fell, the government found itself unable to pay salaries on time, resulting in\u00a0demonstrations around the country.<\/p>\n<h2>Political changes in Baghdad likely<\/h2>\n<p>Iran is known to have an outsize influence in Iraqi politics due to its supporters in Shiite Muslim parties and paramilitaries.<\/p>\n<p>After elections in November 2025, Iraq is currently forming its next government, a process that is always\u00a0fraught as various demographic groups\u00a0jostle for ministries and power.<\/p>\n<p>Negotiations stalled last month because of a debate over the next prime minister. <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran-or-the-us-how-a-new-law-is-testing-iraqs-independence\/a-73773047\">The US denounced<\/a> the controversial candidature of former prime minister <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iraq-faces-return-of-ex-pm-linked-to-islamic-state-rise\/a-75684321\">Nouri al-Maliki<\/a> because he&#8217;s considered too close to Iran. But diminished Iranian influence could change those leadership calculations.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The government formation process will be impacted by this [war],&#8221; Chatham House expert Mansour said. &#8220;That could go many different ways, anything from delays to potentially even the formation of an emergency government just to deal with this war.&#8221;\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"placeholder-image master_landscape big\"><img data-format=\"MASTER_LANDSCAPE\" data-id=\"76190008\" data-url=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76190008_${formatId}.jpg\" data-aspect-ratio=\"16\/9\" alt=\"Flames in Erbil airport after a drone attack. \"><figcaption class=\"img-caption\">Baghdad airport has been targeted as has Erbil airport (pictured) in Iraqi Kurdistan, which hosts a large US consulate and military complex<small class=\"copyright\">Image: Ismael Adnan\/dpa\/picture alliance<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>How Iran war could help Iraq&#8217;s sovereignty<\/h2>\n<p>Foreign interference has been impacting Iraq for way too long, Mohammed Anouz, a lawyer and former member of the Iraqi parliament, told DW.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s one of the reasons why we have been unable to be independent in our decision making; we want decisions to be made in the interests of our own nation,&#8221; he argued.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;An Iran that is less focused on meddling in Iraqi affairs could allow the Iraqi state to reestablish its sovereignty,&#8221; Victoria Taylor, director of the Iraq Initiative at US-based think tank, the Atlantic Council, pointed out in <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/dispatches\/experts-react-how-the-us-war-with-iran-is-playing-out-around-the-middle-east\/\" title=\"External link \u2014 a dispatch written this week\">a dispatch written this week<\/a>. &#8220;A weakened Iran or the fall of the regime provides a dramatic opportunity to alter the course of Iraq, binding it more closely to the West and the region and reducing Iran&#8217;s influence.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>It is certain that changes in Iran will affect\u00a0Iraqi politics, Hadad confirmed.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;But it&#8217;s unclear if those will be negative or positive in the long run,&#8221; he noted. &#8220;Any instability in Iran can easily spill across the border, and there are very few positives to come out of war. Also, it&#8217;s not clear whether any new Iranian regime would be hostile to Iraq or not.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Some may see this as a kind of positive change,&#8221; Mansour added. &#8220;But the challenge is that nobody is sure what comes next. History tells us that there&#8217;s more likely to be more chaos and more violence before anything is settled, and that, I think, is a scary thought for many Iraqis.&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"vjs-wrapper embed big\">\n<h2 aria-label=\"Embedded video \u2014 US Iran attack launched without US Congress, UN approval\" class=\"headline\">US Iran attack launched without US Congress, UN approval<\/h2>\n<p><video id=\"video-76166700\" controls playsinline preload=\"none\" poster=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mNkYAAAAAYAAjCB0C8AAAAASUVORK5CYII=\" data-id=\"76166700\" data-posterurl=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76167614_605.webp\" data-duration=\"04:52\"><source src=\"https:\/\/hlsvod.dw.com\/i\/dwtv_video\/flv\/je\/je20260228_QMisha14F_,AVC_480x270,AVC_512x288,AVC_640x360,AVC_960x540,AVC_1280x720,AVC_1920x1080,.mp4.csmil\/master.m3u8\" type=\"application\/x-mpegURL\" \/><\/video><\/div>\n<p><em>Edited by: Carla Bleiker<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<div data-tracking-skip=\"true\" data-tracking-name=\"rich-text\" class=\"c17j8gzx rc0m0op r1ebneao s198y7xq rich-text l1evdo4u blt0baw s16w0xvi rcjjkz7 w128axg5 b1fzgn0z\">\n<p>As the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/us-israel-war-with-iran\/t-76168615\">Iran war<\/a> spreads,\u00a0old sectarian rivalries of the kind that brought <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iraq\/t-19037666\">Iraq<\/a> to the brink of civil war two decades ago seem to be making a worrying comeback, locals say.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>You can see it on Iraqi social media, and you can feel it in the street, Wissam Yassin, a digital marketer based in the southern Iraqi city of Basra, observes.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;You can tell that a segment of the Shiite community [in Iraq] views this battle as existential,&#8221; he told DW. &#8220;They see the weakening of Iran as a direct threat to themselves, not only on an emotional level but also in terms of the political power they currently have here. They see any strike against Iran as a strike against them.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, many in Iraq&#8217;s Sunni community seem to perceive the war as &#8220;an opportunity to rearrange the political landscape, as Iranian influence on Iraq gets weaker,&#8221; Wissam, who is Shiite himself, continued. &#8220;And that sectarian division is the most dangerous thing for Iraq.&#8221;\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;What happened after the dictator Saddam Hussein was removed will be a drop in the ocean compared to what will happen here after the death of Khamenei,&#8221; Iraqi journalist Kamal Alaash warned on social media this week. &#8220;What&#8217;s coming will change the region, maybe even borders. Oh lord, let Iraq get through this safely.&#8221;<\/p>\n<figure class=\"placeholder-image master_landscape big\"><img data-format=\"MASTER_LANDSCAPE\" data-id=\"71628888\" data-url=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/71628888_${formatId}.jpg\" data-aspect-ratio=\"16\/9\" alt=\"Iraq's Minister of Foreign Affairs Fuad Hussein pictured at the Munich Security Conference 2025.\"><figcaption class=\"img-caption\">The longer this war goes on, the more Iraq is directly affected, Iraq&#8217;s Minister of Foreign Affairs Fuad Hussein (pictured at the Munich Security Conference) said this week<small class=\"copyright\">Image: Ronka Oberhammer\/DW<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Iraq as a battleground for Iran war<\/h2>\n<p>This is because, for Iraqis, what happens in <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran\/t-18996175\">Iran<\/a> never stays in Iran.<\/p>\n<p>Iraq shares an around 1,500 kilometer border with the neighboring country as well as strong commercial, political and military ties.<\/p>\n<p>It is also the only country in the region that has been attacked by both sides in this conflict, Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at British think tank Chatham House, told DW.<\/p>\n<p>After the US and Israel attacked Iran on the weekend, the latter retaliated by targeting US bases all around the Middle East. In Iraq, <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/who-can-stop-iraq-rogue-militias-from-attacking\/a-56627671\">local paramilitaries<\/a> allied with Iran also tried to attack American targets in their own country.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, US or Israeli forces (it is unclear which country was responsible) also bombed Iran-allied paramilitaries inside Iraq.<\/p>\n<p>At the moment, it looks\u00a0like Iran is going to try to prolong this conflict, something the US doesn&#8217;t seem to have much appetite for, Mansour argued:\u00a0&#8220;Iran will want to take advantage of that [lack of appetite] to raise the costs of decisions made by [US President Donald] Trump. And Iraq will, of course, feel that cost too.&#8221;\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2>Economic danger for Iraq from Iran war<\/h2>\n<p>Besides direct violence, other downstream impacts could be financial.<\/p>\n<p>According to the <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iraq-businessnews.com\/2025\/11\/20\/iran-has-20-of-iraqs-consumer-market\/\" title=\"External link \u2014 Iran-Iraq Joint Chamber of Commerce\">Iran-Iraq Joint Chamber of Commerce<\/a>, bilateral trade\u00a0 between the two countries amounted to $12 billion (\u20ac10.2 billion) in 2024. Iran is thought to supply around a fifth of Iraq&#8217;s consumer goods and known to use Iraq to bypass US sanctions and access foreign currencies.<\/p>\n<p>Instability in Iran will likely upend those economic and trade relationships.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Keep in mind also\u00a0that Iran is Iraq&#8217;s <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran-attacks-on-gulf-oil-and-gas-sites-trigger-energy-fears\/a-76199281\">main energy supplier for electricity<\/a>,&#8221; Mansour pointed out, &#8220;so that&#8217;s a big question going into another hot summer.&#8221;\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In the past, when power and water ran out during the country&#8217;s unbearably hot summers, angry locals were quick to protest.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In 2023, Iranian gas was used to generate around 29% of Iraq&#8217;s electricity, the Netherlands-based think tank\u00a0<a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.clingendael.org\/publication\/misery-loves-company-iraq-and-irans-electricity-and-gas-dependencies\" title=\"External link \u2014 Clingendael Institute reported last year\">\u00a0Clingendael Institute reported last year<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"placeholder-image master_landscape big\"><img data-format=\"MASTER_LANDSCAPE\" data-id=\"76203037\" data-url=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76203037_${formatId}.jpg\" data-aspect-ratio=\"16\/9\" alt=\"A worker is pictured at the Khurmala power plant, south of Arbil, the capital of Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region.\"><figcaption class=\"img-caption\">In Iraqi Kurdistan, the Khor Mor complex, which supplies most of the Kurdish power stations (pictured) and is run by a United Arab Emirates company, has been shut down to protect workers <small class=\"copyright\">Image: Safin Hamid\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&#8220;Iraqis are experienced adjusting to difficult times, so there will be less destabilization in the short term,&#8221; said\u00a0Hamzeh Hadad, an independent Iraqi researcher based in Baghdad. &#8220;But if the war is prolonged, that could change.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The Iraqi state is heavily reliant on oil sales, Haddad pointed out. If blocked tanker traffic through the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/hormuz-strait-iran-israel-war-global-oil-supplies-persian-gulf-china-v2\/a-72952336\">Strait of Hormuz<\/a> eventually stops oil income, that would have an impact on Iraq&#8217;s ability to pay its civil servants, he says.<\/p>\n<p>The country has <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/ukraine-war-oil-prices-middle-east-reforms-end\/a-61675230\">one of the biggest public sector workforces<\/a> in the world and the Iraqi government pays salaries or benefits like pensions to around 7\u00a0million Iraqis.\u00a0During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, after oil prices fell, the government found itself unable to pay salaries on time, resulting in\u00a0demonstrations around the country.<\/p>\n<h2>Political changes in Baghdad likely<\/h2>\n<p>Iran is known to have an outsize influence in Iraqi politics due to its supporters in Shiite Muslim parties and paramilitaries.<\/p>\n<p>After elections in November 2025, Iraq is currently forming its next government, a process that is always\u00a0fraught as various demographic groups\u00a0jostle for ministries and power.<\/p>\n<p>Negotiations stalled last month because of a debate over the next prime minister. <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran-or-the-us-how-a-new-law-is-testing-iraqs-independence\/a-73773047\">The US denounced<\/a> the controversial candidature of former prime minister <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iraq-faces-return-of-ex-pm-linked-to-islamic-state-rise\/a-75684321\">Nouri al-Maliki<\/a> because he&#8217;s considered too close to Iran. But diminished Iranian influence could change those leadership calculations.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The government formation process will be impacted by this [war],&#8221; Chatham House expert Mansour said. &#8220;That could go many different ways, anything from delays to potentially even the formation of an emergency government just to deal with this war.&#8221;\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"placeholder-image master_landscape big\"><img data-format=\"MASTER_LANDSCAPE\" data-id=\"76190008\" data-url=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76190008_${formatId}.jpg\" data-aspect-ratio=\"16\/9\" alt=\"Flames in Erbil airport after a drone attack. \"><figcaption class=\"img-caption\">Baghdad airport has been targeted as has Erbil airport (pictured) in Iraqi Kurdistan, which hosts a large US consulate and military complex<small class=\"copyright\">Image: Ismael Adnan\/dpa\/picture alliance<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>How Iran war could help Iraq&#8217;s sovereignty<\/h2>\n<p>Foreign interference has been impacting Iraq for way too long, Mohammed Anouz, a lawyer and former member of the Iraqi parliament, told DW.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s one of the reasons why we have been unable to be independent in our decision making; we want decisions to be made in the interests of our own nation,&#8221; he argued.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;An Iran that is less focused on meddling in Iraqi affairs could allow the Iraqi state to reestablish its sovereignty,&#8221; Victoria Taylor, director of the Iraq Initiative at US-based think tank, the Atlantic Council, pointed out in <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/dispatches\/experts-react-how-the-us-war-with-iran-is-playing-out-around-the-middle-east\/\" title=\"External link \u2014 a dispatch written this week\">a dispatch written this week<\/a>. &#8220;A weakened Iran or the fall of the regime provides a dramatic opportunity to alter the course of Iraq, binding it more closely to the West and the region and reducing Iran&#8217;s influence.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>It is certain that changes in Iran will affect\u00a0Iraqi politics, Hadad confirmed.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;But it&#8217;s unclear if those will be negative or positive in the long run,&#8221; he noted. &#8220;Any instability in Iran can easily spill across the border, and there are very few positives to come out of war. Also, it&#8217;s not clear whether any new Iranian regime would be hostile to Iraq or not.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Some may see this as a kind of positive change,&#8221; Mansour added. &#8220;But the challenge is that nobody is sure what comes next. History tells us that there&#8217;s more likely to be more chaos and more violence before anything is settled, and that, I think, is a scary thought for many Iraqis.&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"vjs-wrapper embed big\">\n<h2 aria-label=\"Embedded video \u2014 US Iran attack launched without US Congress, UN approval\" class=\"headline\">US Iran attack launched without US Congress, UN approval<\/h2>\n<p><video id=\"video-76166700\" controls playsinline preload=\"none\" poster=\"image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mNkYAAAAAYAAjCB0C8AAAAASUVORK5CYII=\" data-id=\"76166700\" data-posterurl=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76167614_605.webp\" data-duration=\"04:52\"><source src=\"https:\/\/hlsvod.dw.com\/i\/dwtv_video\/flv\/je\/je20260228_QMisha14F_,AVC_480x270,AVC_512x288,AVC_640x360,AVC_960x540,AVC_1280x720,AVC_1920x1080,.mp4.csmil\/master.m3u8\" type=\"application\/x-mpegURL\" \/><\/video><\/div>\n<p><em>Edited by: Carla Bleiker<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>As the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/us-israel-war-with-iran\/t-76168615\">Iran war<\/a> spreads,\u00a0old sectarian rivalries of the kind that brought <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iraq\/t-19037666\">Iraq<\/a> to the brink of civil war two decades ago seem to be making a worrying comeback, locals say.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>You can see it on Iraqi social media, and you can feel it in the street, Wissam Yassin, a digital marketer based in the southern Iraqi city of Basra, observes.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;You can tell that a segment of the Shiite community [in Iraq] views this battle as existential,&#8221; he told DW. &#8220;They see the weakening of Iran as a direct threat to themselves, not only on an emotional level but also in terms of the political power they currently have here. They see any strike against Iran as a strike against them.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, many in Iraq&#8217;s Sunni community seem to perceive the war as &#8220;an opportunity to rearrange the political landscape, as Iranian influence on Iraq gets weaker,&#8221; Wissam, who is Shiite himself, continued. &#8220;And that sectarian division is the most dangerous thing for Iraq.&#8221;\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;What happened after the dictator Saddam Hussein was removed will be a drop in the ocean compared to what will happen here after the death of Khamenei,&#8221; Iraqi journalist Kamal Alaash warned on social media this week. &#8220;What&#8217;s coming will change the region, maybe even borders. Oh lord, let Iraq get through this safely.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>This is because, for Iraqis, what happens in <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran\/t-18996175\">Iran<\/a> never stays in Iran.<\/p>\n<p>Iraq shares an around 1,500 kilometer border with the neighboring country as well as strong commercial, political and military ties.<\/p>\n<p>It is also the only country in the region that has been attacked by both sides in this conflict, Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at British think tank Chatham House, told DW.<\/p>\n<p>After the US and Israel attacked Iran on the weekend, the latter retaliated by targeting US bases all around the Middle East. In Iraq, <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/who-can-stop-iraq-rogue-militias-from-attacking\/a-56627671\">local paramilitaries<\/a> allied with Iran also tried to attack American targets in their own country.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, US or Israeli forces (it is unclear which country was responsible) also bombed Iran-allied paramilitaries inside Iraq.<\/p>\n<p>At the moment, it looks\u00a0like Iran is going to try to prolong this conflict, something the US doesn&#8217;t seem to have much appetite for, Mansour argued:\u00a0&#8220;Iran will want to take advantage of that [lack of appetite] to raise the costs of decisions made by [US President Donald] Trump. And Iraq will, of course, feel that cost too.&#8221;\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Besides direct violence, other downstream impacts could be financial.<\/p>\n<p>According to the <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iraq-businessnews.com\/2025\/11\/20\/iran-has-20-of-iraqs-consumer-market\/\" title=\"External link \u2014 Iran-Iraq Joint Chamber of Commerce\">Iran-Iraq Joint Chamber of Commerce<\/a>, bilateral trade\u00a0 between the two countries amounted to $12 billion (\u20ac10.2 billion) in 2024. Iran is thought to supply around a fifth of Iraq&#8217;s consumer goods and known to use Iraq to bypass US sanctions and access foreign currencies.<\/p>\n<p>Instability in Iran will likely upend those economic and trade relationships.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Keep in mind also\u00a0that Iran is Iraq&#8217;s <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran-attacks-on-gulf-oil-and-gas-sites-trigger-energy-fears\/a-76199281\">main energy supplier for electricity<\/a>,&#8221; Mansour pointed out, &#8220;so that&#8217;s a big question going into another hot summer.&#8221;\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In the past, when power and water ran out during the country&#8217;s unbearably hot summers, angry locals were quick to protest.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In 2023, Iranian gas was used to generate around 29% of Iraq&#8217;s electricity, the Netherlands-based think tank\u00a0<a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.clingendael.org\/publication\/misery-loves-company-iraq-and-irans-electricity-and-gas-dependencies\" title=\"External link \u2014 Clingendael Institute reported last year\">\u00a0Clingendael Institute reported last year<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Iraqis are experienced adjusting to difficult times, so there will be less destabilization in the short term,&#8221; said\u00a0Hamzeh Hadad, an independent Iraqi researcher based in Baghdad. &#8220;But if the war is prolonged, that could change.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The Iraqi state is heavily reliant on oil sales, Haddad pointed out. If blocked tanker traffic through the <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/hormuz-strait-iran-israel-war-global-oil-supplies-persian-gulf-china-v2\/a-72952336\">Strait of Hormuz<\/a> eventually stops oil income, that would have an impact on Iraq&#8217;s ability to pay its civil servants, he says.<\/p>\n<p>The country has <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/ukraine-war-oil-prices-middle-east-reforms-end\/a-61675230\">one of the biggest public sector workforces<\/a> in the world and the Iraqi government pays salaries or benefits like pensions to around 7\u00a0million Iraqis.\u00a0During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, after oil prices fell, the government found itself unable to pay salaries on time, resulting in\u00a0demonstrations around the country.<\/p>\n<p>Iran is known to have an outsize influence in Iraqi politics due to its supporters in Shiite Muslim parties and paramilitaries.<\/p>\n<p>After elections in November 2025, Iraq is currently forming its next government, a process that is always\u00a0fraught as various demographic groups\u00a0jostle for ministries and power.<\/p>\n<p>Negotiations stalled last month because of a debate over the next prime minister. <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran-or-the-us-how-a-new-law-is-testing-iraqs-independence\/a-73773047\">The US denounced<\/a> the controversial candidature of former prime minister <a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iraq-faces-return-of-ex-pm-linked-to-islamic-state-rise\/a-75684321\">Nouri al-Maliki<\/a> because he&#8217;s considered too close to Iran. But diminished Iranian influence could change those leadership calculations.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The government formation process will be impacted by this [war],&#8221; Chatham House expert Mansour said. &#8220;That could go many different ways, anything from delays to potentially even the formation of an emergency government just to deal with this war.&#8221;\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Foreign interference has been impacting Iraq for way too long, Mohammed Anouz, a lawyer and former member of the Iraqi parliament, told DW.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s one of the reasons why we have been unable to be independent in our decision making; we want decisions to be made in the interests of our own nation,&#8221; he argued.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;An Iran that is less focused on meddling in Iraqi affairs could allow the Iraqi state to reestablish its sovereignty,&#8221; Victoria Taylor, director of the Iraq Initiative at US-based think tank, the Atlantic Council, pointed out in <a rel=\"noopener follow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"external-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/dispatches\/experts-react-how-the-us-war-with-iran-is-playing-out-around-the-middle-east\/\" title=\"External link \u2014 a dispatch written this week\">a dispatch written this week<\/a>. &#8220;A weakened Iran or the fall of the regime provides a dramatic opportunity to alter the course of Iraq, binding it more closely to the West and the region and reducing Iran&#8217;s influence.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>It is certain that changes in Iran will affect\u00a0Iraqi politics, Hadad confirmed.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;But it&#8217;s unclear if those will be negative or positive in the long run,&#8221; he noted. &#8220;Any instability in Iran can easily spill across the border, and there are very few positives to come out of war. Also, it&#8217;s not clear whether any new Iranian regime would be hostile to Iraq or not.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Some may see this as a kind of positive change,&#8221; Mansour added. &#8220;But the challenge is that nobody is sure what comes next. History tells us that there&#8217;s more likely to be more chaos and more violence before anything is settled, and that, I think, is a scary thought for many Iraqis.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"vjs-no-js\">To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that <a href=\"https:\/\/videojs.com\/html5-video-support\/\" target=\"_blank\">supports HTML5 video<\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>Edited by: Carla Bleiker<\/em><\/p>\n<p>[analyse_source url=&#8221;https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran-war-impact-on-iraq-politics-economy-middle-east-stability-explained\/a-76202543&#8243;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[analyse_image type=&#8221;featured&#8221; src=&#8221;https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76203003_6.jpg&#8221;] https:\/\/p.dw.com\/p\/59jlH The relationship between Iran and Iraq is more than political or financial; some Shiites in Iraq saw Khamenei as their spiritual leader, tooImage: Ahmad Al-Rubaye\/AFP\/Getty Images As the Iran war spreads,\u00a0old sectarian rivalries of the kind that brought Iraq to the brink of civil war two decades ago seem to be [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[226,74],"class_list":["post-1805879","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","tag-crawlmanager","tag-dw-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1805879","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1805879"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1805879\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1805879"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1805879"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1805879"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}