{"id":1805878,"date":"2026-03-03T18:09:19","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T15:09:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1805878"},"modified":"2026-03-03T18:09:19","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T15:09:19","slug":"fears-over-nuclear-arms-race-as-us-russia-treaty-expires","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1805878","title":{"rendered":"Fears over nuclear arms race as US-Russia treaty expires"},"content":{"rendered":"

[analyse_image type=”featured” src=”https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76202806_6.jpg”]<\/p>\n

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https:\/\/p.dw.com\/p\/59ja1<\/span><\/div>\n<\/section>\n
French President Macron staged his highly-anticipated nuclear speech at a military base, where he arrived flanked by nuclear-capable Rafale jetsImage: Eliot Blondet\/SIPA\/picture alliance<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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Emmanuel Macron<\/a> arrived to the highly-secretive nuclear submarine base where he would give his speech in a manner perfectly choreographed for the weighty remarks<\/a> he was about to deliver:\u00a0accompanied by a squadron of nuclear-capable Rafale jets.<\/p>\n

“To be free one must be feared,”\u00a0Macron said, “and to be feared one must be powerful.”<\/p>\n

France’s<\/a> president has determined that his country, one of only two European nations with nuclear strike capabilities<\/a> \u2014 called the “force de frappe”\u00a0\u2014 is more powerful when it spreads its umbrella a bit further to cover allies Paris considers part of its “vital interests.”<\/p>\n

In addition to the ever-present threat from Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling<\/a>, what Macron called the Trump administration’s “resetting of priorities<\/a>” is a “strong incentive for Europe to take more direct control of its own security\u2026. of our own destiny.”<\/p>\n

“The world has become tougher and this has been further demonstrated by events of the past few hours,”\u00a0Macron said, referencing the escalating violence<\/a> in the Middle East. “In keeping with our national and European challenges, we have to strengthen our nuclear deterrent\u2026 We must think of our nuclear deterrent on a European scale.”<\/p>\n

What changes\u00a0and what doesn’t in French nuclear policy<\/h2>\n

While Macron said France will increase its stockpile from around 290 warheads, it will no longer be transparent about that number. All nuclear moves would be coordinated with and complementary to NATO’s<\/a> own nuclear deterrent, Macron emphasized. But: There will be no consideration of sharing the decision-making over the use of the French stockpile, the president stressed many times, nor a US\/NATO-style “nuclear sharing”\u00a0arrangement where weapons would be stationed in other countries and to a large extent dependent on cooperation.<\/p>\n

He said the coordination with NATO will be an additional deterrent to the alliance’s own nuclear program.\u00a0France does not participate in nuclear NATO activities.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But as part of what he called “advanced deterrence\u201d, he did announce the possibilities of temporarily stationing French nuclear-capable aircraft in other countries, of holding multi-national nuclear-related exercises and of hosting visits to French nuclear facilities. He said in addition to the UK, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Greece and the Netherlands will participate. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson issued a statement with his Danish counterpart Mette Frederiksen to announce Sweden is also signing on.<\/p>\n

Germany goes first<\/h2>\n

Coordinated with Macron’s announcement in the speech that Germany<\/a> would be the first key partner after the UK, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz<\/a> posted on X about the increased cooperation, which will include joint military exercises and the development of further capabilities in early-warning systems, air defense and deep strikes.<\/p>\n

Claudia\u00a0Major, Senior Vice President for Transatlantic Security at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF), called the bilateral deal “groundbreaking.”\u00a0<\/p>\n

“Five years ago we had an election campaign [in Germany] which was about getting rid of nuclear weapons,”\u00a0she told DW, “and now Germany is one of the leading countries in doing the nuclear cooperation with France. So, the synchronization of the bilateral relationship is amazing.”<\/p>\n

Major said Macron’s effort to remain “so NATO-friendly”\u00a0in his approach is what makes it possible for Merz and the other leaders to participate without suggesting they want to replace the US umbrella and nuclear-sharing arrangements.\u00a0<\/p>\n

At the same time, Major underscores the unquestionable grip French leaders will keep on their nuclear button.<\/p>\n

\"Text
French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz released a joint statement pledging closer cooperation on nuclear deterrence just as Macron was giving his speechImage: Embassy of France in the U.S.\/X<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

“They will never compromise on the autonomy, never on the sovereign nature of the chain of command,”\u00a0she said.<\/p>\n

‘Advanced deterrence’\u00a0goes further than expected<\/h2>\n

Darya Dolzikova, a senior research fellow for proliferation and nuclear policy at the Royal United Services Institute, says she was surprised by how collaborative the French proposals are, echoing Major’s emphasis on the French insistence on full sovereignty over their arsenal.<\/p>\n

“I was tempering my expectations in terms of how much more clarity we would get or how forward-leaning Macron would be on the ‘European dimension’ of the French nuclear deterrent,”\u00a0Dolzikova told DW.\u00a0<\/p>\n

She said\u00a0that particularly the potential deployment of French nuclear-capable systems to allies’ territory and bilateral planning with other European governments “does open up the door to much closer coordination with allies on nuclear issues than I expected the French to be ready for.”<\/p>\n

Dolzikova, who’s recently published research urging Europe to review its nuclear posture<\/a> due to uncertainty over US\u00a0security guarantees, notes that the new approach by Macron is more than just empty words\u00a0and indicates a conscientious upgrade of his commitment to French allies.<\/p>\n

“A deployment of strategic systems further east into Europe also raises the risks that France could get pulled into a conflict in Europe early if those systems are attacked,”\u00a0she explained. “It is a commendable step forward by the French in showing their willingness to take serious responsibility for European security.”<\/p>\n

New plans unpopular among Swedish opposition<\/h2>\n

Not everyone is impressed. Sweden became a staunch advocate of nuclear disarmament after abandoning its own covert research program into nuclear arms which ran from 1945 to 1968. Now Swedish\u00a0Green Party politicians are speaking out against extending the nuclear umbrella to the Nordic state, suggesting this is pulling Sweden into an arms race<\/a>. The Green Party is currently in the opposition in Sweden<\/p>\n

Macron\u2019s\u00a0speech comes just days after the French aircraft carrier\u00a0Charles de Gaulle, which is capable of carrying nuclear weapons deployed by Rafale fighter aircraft, visited Sweden amid great fanfare by government officials on both sides.<\/p>\n

NATO’s nuclear doctrine was a matter of debate during the run-up to Sweden’s alliance membership, with the government stating it “would not host nuclear weapons on Swedish soil during peacetime.”<\/p>\n

While that doesn’t change by drawing closer to France, Green Party spokesman Daniel Hellden tells DW that expanding nuclear arsenals, as France intends to do, “will not make Europe safer.”<\/p>\n

“We should focus on strengthening our conventional capabilities,”\u00a0he said, “and build strong robust societies that become deterrents in and of themselves.”<\/p>\n

\n

Fears over nuclear arms race as US-Russia treaty expires<\/h2>\n

Macron wants to ‘lock in’\u00a0measures before French elections<\/h2>\n

Some of Macron’s fiercest domestic critics, Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella of the far-right National Rally party, issued a statement in response to the speech.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The two described the changes a “political communication operation carried out without taking into account national interests,”\u00a0knocking what they called a “dispersion of our nuclear means on European territory.”<\/p>\n

While the National Rally has abandoned previous campaigning to pull France out of the EU and NATO, it’s no fan of further integration like Macron’s nuclear outreach. Bardella is currently leading in polls to replace Macron in the April 2027 elections.<\/p>\n

\"National
National Rally leader Jordan Bardella is the leading contender to win France’s presidency in 2027Image: Henrique Campos\/Hans Lucas\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

GMF’s Claudia Major says that’s one more reason, in addition to global security risks, that Macron is moving further and faster than might otherwise have been the case.<\/p>\n

He wants to “lock in as many practical steps as possible until the elections in France, so Le Pen or Bardella can’t undo it quickly,”\u00a0she said. “That’s the idea.”<\/p>\n

Edited by: Carla Bleiker<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n

\n

Emmanuel Macron<\/a> arrived to the highly-secretive nuclear submarine base where he would give his speech in a manner perfectly choreographed for the weighty remarks<\/a> he was about to deliver:\u00a0accompanied by a squadron of nuclear-capable Rafale jets.<\/p>\n

“To be free one must be feared,”\u00a0Macron said, “and to be feared one must be powerful.”<\/p>\n

France’s<\/a> president has determined that his country, one of only two European nations with nuclear strike capabilities<\/a> \u2014 called the “force de frappe”\u00a0\u2014 is more powerful when it spreads its umbrella a bit further to cover allies Paris considers part of its “vital interests.”<\/p>\n

In addition to the ever-present threat from Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling<\/a>, what Macron called the Trump administration’s “resetting of priorities<\/a>” is a “strong incentive for Europe to take more direct control of its own security\u2026. of our own destiny.”<\/p>\n

“The world has become tougher and this has been further demonstrated by events of the past few hours,”\u00a0Macron said, referencing the escalating violence<\/a> in the Middle East. “In keeping with our national and European challenges, we have to strengthen our nuclear deterrent\u2026 We must think of our nuclear deterrent on a European scale.”<\/p>\n

What changes\u00a0and what doesn’t in French nuclear policy<\/h2>\n

While Macron said France will increase its stockpile from around 290 warheads, it will no longer be transparent about that number. All nuclear moves would be coordinated with and complementary to NATO’s<\/a> own nuclear deterrent, Macron emphasized. But: There will be no consideration of sharing the decision-making over the use of the French stockpile, the president stressed many times, nor a US\/NATO-style “nuclear sharing”\u00a0arrangement where weapons would be stationed in other countries and to a large extent dependent on cooperation.<\/p>\n

He said the coordination with NATO will be an additional deterrent to the alliance’s own nuclear program.\u00a0France does not participate in nuclear NATO activities.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But as part of what he called “advanced deterrence\u201d, he did announce the possibilities of temporarily stationing French nuclear-capable aircraft in other countries, of holding multi-national nuclear-related exercises and of hosting visits to French nuclear facilities. He said in addition to the UK, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Greece and the Netherlands will participate. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson issued a statement with his Danish counterpart Mette Frederiksen to announce Sweden is also signing on.<\/p>\n

Germany goes first<\/h2>\n

Coordinated with Macron’s announcement in the speech that Germany<\/a> would be the first key partner after the UK, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz<\/a> posted on X about the increased cooperation, which will include joint military exercises and the development of further capabilities in early-warning systems, air defense and deep strikes.<\/p>\n

Claudia\u00a0Major, Senior Vice President for Transatlantic Security at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF), called the bilateral deal “groundbreaking.”\u00a0<\/p>\n

“Five years ago we had an election campaign [in Germany] which was about getting rid of nuclear weapons,”\u00a0she told DW, “and now Germany is one of the leading countries in doing the nuclear cooperation with France. So, the synchronization of the bilateral relationship is amazing.”<\/p>\n

Major said Macron’s effort to remain “so NATO-friendly”\u00a0in his approach is what makes it possible for Merz and the other leaders to participate without suggesting they want to replace the US umbrella and nuclear-sharing arrangements.\u00a0<\/p>\n

At the same time, Major underscores the unquestionable grip French leaders will keep on their nuclear button.<\/p>\n

\"Text
French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz released a joint statement pledging closer cooperation on nuclear deterrence just as Macron was giving his speechImage: Embassy of France in the U.S.\/X<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

“They will never compromise on the autonomy, never on the sovereign nature of the chain of command,”\u00a0she said.<\/p>\n

‘Advanced deterrence’\u00a0goes further than expected<\/h2>\n

Darya Dolzikova, a senior research fellow for proliferation and nuclear policy at the Royal United Services Institute, says she was surprised by how collaborative the French proposals are, echoing Major’s emphasis on the French insistence on full sovereignty over their arsenal.<\/p>\n

“I was tempering my expectations in terms of how much more clarity we would get or how forward-leaning Macron would be on the ‘European dimension’ of the French nuclear deterrent,”\u00a0Dolzikova told DW.\u00a0<\/p>\n

She said\u00a0that particularly the potential deployment of French nuclear-capable systems to allies’ territory and bilateral planning with other European governments “does open up the door to much closer coordination with allies on nuclear issues than I expected the French to be ready for.”<\/p>\n

Dolzikova, who’s recently published research urging Europe to review its nuclear posture<\/a> due to uncertainty over US\u00a0security guarantees, notes that the new approach by Macron is more than just empty words\u00a0and indicates a conscientious upgrade of his commitment to French allies.<\/p>\n

“A deployment of strategic systems further east into Europe also raises the risks that France could get pulled into a conflict in Europe early if those systems are attacked,”\u00a0she explained. “It is a commendable step forward by the French in showing their willingness to take serious responsibility for European security.”<\/p>\n

New plans unpopular among Swedish opposition<\/h2>\n

Not everyone is impressed. Sweden became a staunch advocate of nuclear disarmament after abandoning its own covert research program into nuclear arms which ran from 1945 to 1968. Now Swedish\u00a0Green Party politicians are speaking out against extending the nuclear umbrella to the Nordic state, suggesting this is pulling Sweden into an arms race<\/a>. The Green Party is currently in the opposition in Sweden<\/p>\n

Macron\u2019s\u00a0speech comes just days after the French aircraft carrier\u00a0Charles de Gaulle, which is capable of carrying nuclear weapons deployed by Rafale fighter aircraft, visited Sweden amid great fanfare by government officials on both sides.<\/p>\n

NATO’s nuclear doctrine was a matter of debate during the run-up to Sweden’s alliance membership, with the government stating it “would not host nuclear weapons on Swedish soil during peacetime.”<\/p>\n

While that doesn’t change by drawing closer to France, Green Party spokesman Daniel Hellden tells DW that expanding nuclear arsenals, as France intends to do, “will not make Europe safer.”<\/p>\n

“We should focus on strengthening our conventional capabilities,”\u00a0he said, “and build strong robust societies that become deterrents in and of themselves.”<\/p>\n

\n

Fears over nuclear arms race as US-Russia treaty expires<\/h2>\n

Macron wants to ‘lock in’\u00a0measures before French elections<\/h2>\n

Some of Macron’s fiercest domestic critics, Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella of the far-right National Rally party, issued a statement in response to the speech.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The two described the changes a “political communication operation carried out without taking into account national interests,”\u00a0knocking what they called a “dispersion of our nuclear means on European territory.”<\/p>\n

While the National Rally has abandoned previous campaigning to pull France out of the EU and NATO, it’s no fan of further integration like Macron’s nuclear outreach. Bardella is currently leading in polls to replace Macron in the April 2027 elections.<\/p>\n

\"National
National Rally leader Jordan Bardella is the leading contender to win France’s presidency in 2027Image: Henrique Campos\/Hans Lucas\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

GMF’s Claudia Major says that’s one more reason, in addition to global security risks, that Macron is moving further and faster than might otherwise have been the case.<\/p>\n

He wants to “lock in as many practical steps as possible until the elections in France, so Le Pen or Bardella can’t undo it quickly,”\u00a0she said. “That’s the idea.”<\/p>\n

Edited by: Carla Bleiker<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Emmanuel Macron<\/a> arrived to the highly-secretive nuclear submarine base where he would give his speech in a manner perfectly choreographed for the weighty remarks<\/a> he was about to deliver:\u00a0accompanied by a squadron of nuclear-capable Rafale jets.<\/p>\n

“To be free one must be feared,”\u00a0Macron said, “and to be feared one must be powerful.”<\/p>\n

France’s<\/a> president has determined that his country, one of only two European nations with nuclear strike capabilities<\/a> \u2014 called the “force de frappe”\u00a0\u2014 is more powerful when it spreads its umbrella a bit further to cover allies Paris considers part of its “vital interests.”<\/p>\n

In addition to the ever-present threat from Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling<\/a>, what Macron called the Trump administration’s “resetting of priorities<\/a>” is a “strong incentive for Europe to take more direct control of its own security\u2026. of our own destiny.”<\/p>\n

“The world has become tougher and this has been further demonstrated by events of the past few hours,”\u00a0Macron said, referencing the escalating violence<\/a> in the Middle East. “In keeping with our national and European challenges, we have to strengthen our nuclear deterrent\u2026 We must think of our nuclear deterrent on a European scale.”<\/p>\n

While Macron said France will increase its stockpile from around 290 warheads, it will no longer be transparent about that number. All nuclear moves would be coordinated with and complementary to NATO’s<\/a> own nuclear deterrent, Macron emphasized. But: There will be no consideration of sharing the decision-making over the use of the French stockpile, the president stressed many times, nor a US\/NATO-style “nuclear sharing”\u00a0arrangement where weapons would be stationed in other countries and to a large extent dependent on cooperation.<\/p>\n

He said the coordination with NATO will be an additional deterrent to the alliance’s own nuclear program.\u00a0France does not participate in nuclear NATO activities.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But as part of what he called “advanced deterrence\u201d, he did announce the possibilities of temporarily stationing French nuclear-capable aircraft in other countries, of holding multi-national nuclear-related exercises and of hosting visits to French nuclear facilities. He said in addition to the UK, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Greece and the Netherlands will participate. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson issued a statement with his Danish counterpart Mette Frederiksen to announce Sweden is also signing on.<\/p>\n

Coordinated with Macron’s announcement in the speech that Germany<\/a> would be the first key partner after the UK, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz<\/a> posted on X about the increased cooperation, which will include joint military exercises and the development of further capabilities in early-warning systems, air defense and deep strikes.<\/p>\n

Claudia\u00a0Major, Senior Vice President for Transatlantic Security at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF), called the bilateral deal “groundbreaking.”\u00a0<\/p>\n

“Five years ago we had an election campaign [in Germany] which was about getting rid of nuclear weapons,”\u00a0she told DW, “and now Germany is one of the leading countries in doing the nuclear cooperation with France. So, the synchronization of the bilateral relationship is amazing.”<\/p>\n

Major said Macron’s effort to remain “so NATO-friendly”\u00a0in his approach is what makes it possible for Merz and the other leaders to participate without suggesting they want to replace the US umbrella and nuclear-sharing arrangements.\u00a0<\/p>\n

At the same time, Major underscores the unquestionable grip French leaders will keep on their nuclear button.<\/p>\n

“They will never compromise on the autonomy, never on the sovereign nature of the chain of command,”\u00a0she said.<\/p>\n

Darya Dolzikova, a senior research fellow for proliferation and nuclear policy at the Royal United Services Institute, says she was surprised by how collaborative the French proposals are, echoing Major’s emphasis on the French insistence on full sovereignty over their arsenal.<\/p>\n

“I was tempering my expectations in terms of how much more clarity we would get or how forward-leaning Macron would be on the ‘European dimension’ of the French nuclear deterrent,”\u00a0Dolzikova told DW.\u00a0<\/p>\n

She said\u00a0that particularly the potential deployment of French nuclear-capable systems to allies’ territory and bilateral planning with other European governments “does open up the door to much closer coordination with allies on nuclear issues than I expected the French to be ready for.”<\/p>\n

Dolzikova, who’s recently published research urging Europe to review its nuclear posture<\/a> due to uncertainty over US\u00a0security guarantees, notes that the new approach by Macron is more than just empty words\u00a0and indicates a conscientious upgrade of his commitment to French allies.<\/p>\n

“A deployment of strategic systems further east into Europe also raises the risks that France could get pulled into a conflict in Europe early if those systems are attacked,”\u00a0she explained. “It is a commendable step forward by the French in showing their willingness to take serious responsibility for European security.”<\/p>\n

Not everyone is impressed. Sweden became a staunch advocate of nuclear disarmament after abandoning its own covert research program into nuclear arms which ran from 1945 to 1968. Now Swedish\u00a0Green Party politicians are speaking out against extending the nuclear umbrella to the Nordic state, suggesting this is pulling Sweden into an arms race<\/a>. The Green Party is currently in the opposition in Sweden<\/p>\n

Macron\u2019s\u00a0speech comes just days after the French aircraft carrier\u00a0Charles de Gaulle, which is capable of carrying nuclear weapons deployed by Rafale fighter aircraft, visited Sweden amid great fanfare by government officials on both sides.<\/p>\n

NATO’s nuclear doctrine was a matter of debate during the run-up to Sweden’s alliance membership, with the government stating it “would not host nuclear weapons on Swedish soil during peacetime.”<\/p>\n

While that doesn’t change by drawing closer to France, Green Party spokesman Daniel Hellden tells DW that expanding nuclear arsenals, as France intends to do, “will not make Europe safer.”<\/p>\n

“We should focus on strengthening our conventional capabilities,”\u00a0he said, “and build strong robust societies that become deterrents in and of themselves.”<\/p>\n

To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video<\/a><\/p>\n

Some of Macron’s fiercest domestic critics, Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella of the far-right National Rally party, issued a statement in response to the speech.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The two described the changes a “political communication operation carried out without taking into account national interests,”\u00a0knocking what they called a “dispersion of our nuclear means on European territory.”<\/p>\n

While the National Rally has abandoned previous campaigning to pull France out of the EU and NATO, it’s no fan of further integration like Macron’s nuclear outreach. Bardella is currently leading in polls to replace Macron in the April 2027 elections.<\/p>\n

GMF’s Claudia Major says that’s one more reason, in addition to global security risks, that Macron is moving further and faster than might otherwise have been the case.<\/p>\n

He wants to “lock in as many practical steps as possible until the elections in France, so Le Pen or Bardella can’t undo it quickly,”\u00a0she said. “That’s the idea.”<\/p>\n

Edited by: Carla Bleiker<\/em><\/p>\n

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