{"id":1799001,"date":"2026-02-28T14:25:55","date_gmt":"2026-02-28T11:25:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1799001"},"modified":"2026-02-28T14:25:55","modified_gmt":"2026-02-28T11:25:55","slug":"analyst-assesses-iran-politics-as-us-launches-attacks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1799001","title":{"rendered":"Analyst assesses Iran politics as US launches attacks"},"content":{"rendered":"

[analyse_image type=”featured” src=”https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76163699_6.jpg”]<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
https:\/\/p.dw.com\/p\/59aOs<\/span><\/div>\n<\/section>\n
US President Donald Trump announcing military campaign against Iran in a video posted on social mediaImage: Chris Delmas\/AFP<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\n

After Israel<\/a> launched “preemptive strikes”<\/a> against Iran<\/a> on Saturday morning, President Donald Trump announced in a speech that “major combat operations”<\/a> by the US<\/a> were also underway.<\/p>\n

“Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian \u2060regime,” Trump said in a video shared on social \u2060media, vowing to destroy Iranian nuclear and military capabilities.<\/p>\n

“We will ensure Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon,” he said.<\/p>\n

Laying out the campaign objectives, Trump also said the US would obliterate Iran’s ballistic missile program and its naval forces.<\/p>\n

As the US-Israel military campaign against Iran doesn’t appear to be short-term and limited, analysts believe the conflict could continue for\u00a0weeks, if not months.<\/p>\n

Objective 1: Stop Iran\u00a0obtaining or building nuclear weapons<\/h2>\n

After the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025, Trump declared that the US had “obliterated” Iran’s major nuclear facilities and that the Islamic Republic would not be able to build nuclear weapons in the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

“The US is conducting a war whose aim is to destroy this (nuclear) program, again, so I think this, by and large, is a pretext,” said Marcus Schneider, expert at the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) in Lebanon.<\/p>\n

“Iran’s nuclear program was set back at the time by US attacks; some say by a few months, others say by a few years,” he told DW.\u00a0“But I believe it cannot be eliminated. It is also a question of expertise, which means that if Iran has the expertise to build these centrifuges and to enrich [uranium], then that is something you cannot eliminate through air force.”<\/p>\n

\n

Analyst assesses Iran politics as US launches attacks<\/h2>\n

Shahin Modarres, an Italy-based security analyst, says a nuclear-armed Iran will always be viewed by Israel and the US as “unacceptable.”<\/p>\n

“Preventing nuclear weaponization is, therefore, a strategic objective, not merely a policy preference,” Modarres told DW.<\/p>\n

Diba Mirzaei from the German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) dubs it “a pretext to justify the war,” arguing that “currently no practical danger is emanating from Iran.”<\/p>\n

The negotiations between the US and Iran<\/a> in Geneva this week over Tehran’s nuclear program didn’t yield any result.<\/p>\n

Objective 2: Obliteration of Iran’s ballistic missile program<\/h2>\n

Some experts believe that the US and Israel consider Tehran’s ballistic missile capabilities a bigger threat than its nuclear program. In last year’s 12-day war<\/a>, Iran demonstrated that its missiles could inflict damage on Israel and US military facilities in the region.<\/p>\n

“Operationally, production facilities, storage sites, and solid-fuel procurement chains are targetable \u2014 as recent strikes on missile-related infrastructure have demonstrated,” Modarres underlined. “However, technological know-how cannot be bombed away,” he said, adding that a complete eradication of the Islamic Republic’s missile program “is unlikely, but severe degradation and long-term limitation of capacity is possible.”<\/p>\n

Schneider agrees: “It is a domestic industry, which means that these are not imported ballistic missiles. Iran is in a position \u2014 something it has proven since the end of the last war \u2014 to produce them by itself. It is, of course, possible to destroy the arsenal, but the question is how long it will take and who gets harmed in the process.”<\/p>\n

\n

What are the risks of a US military attack on Iran?<\/h2>\n

Objective 3: Destruction of Iran’s naval forces<\/h2>\n

For Schneider, it is more feasible for the US to annihilate Iran’s navy than its missile capabilities. “Of course, that is militarily possible. But one must understand that they (Iran) also have many small boats \u2014 the so\u2011called speedboats. So, I think that is not something that can be achieved in a week,” the analysts said.<\/p>\n

Shahin Modarres pointed out that there is a historical precedent for this kind of operation.<\/p>\n

“During Operation Praying Mantis (1988), the US severely damaged Iran’s naval capabilities. If the freedom of navigation \u2014 particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical global energy chokepoint \u2014 is threatened, the US could justify large-scale naval action. The strategic objective for this would be to guarantee the opening of sea lanes,” Modarres stressed.<\/p>\n

Sara Kermanian, researcher of international relations at the University of Sussex, shares this view: “The United States could severely damage Iran’s active naval forces in the short term, significantly degrading their ability to disrupt maritime traffic.”<\/p>\n

Objective 4: Toppling the regime<\/h2>\n

It is unclear how President Trump wants to achieve this goal through his latest military campaign, as Washington has not hinted at initiating ground operations inside Iran. But reports of Israeli and US air strikes on military and government targets inside Iran show\u00a0that the campaign aims to substantially weaken the regime.<\/p>\n

“When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations,” Trump said in his speech. “For many years, you have asked for America’s help, but you never got it.”<\/p>\n

\"Images
President Trump has urged Iranian citizens to rise against the regimeImage: AFP<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Modarres says renewed mass protests against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s hardline regime, something similar to those in January<\/a>, could be probable but it would require a powerful triggering event. “Given the memory of repression, spontaneous uprising is unlikely without structural weakening of the regime. Statements suggesting opportunity may function more as strategic signaling than firm commitment,” the expert added.<\/p>\n

Schneider believes toppling the\u00a0regime would require ground troops. “That Trump intends to do it only with air power and then believes that the Iranian population will rise amid a war and act against this brutal regime, I find that rather fantastical to imagine,” he said.<\/p>\n

“If the actual goal is regime change, then I would assume this war will last longer \u2014 possibly for several months. And the big question that arises is that of the regime’s resilience,” he underlined.<\/p>\n

Modarres believes Trump’s immunity offer to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard\u00a0Corps (IRGC) members “is a classic strategy aimed at encouraging elite defection and accelerating internal fragmentation.”<\/p>\n

“Its effectiveness will increase if sustained military and economic pressure weaken regime\u00a0cohesion. However, institutional surrender of the IRGC would only be plausible under conditions of a profound systemic collapse,” he said.<\/p>\n

What if the regime collapse objective is not achieved?<\/h2>\n

Kermanian believes that if Trump’s regime collapse goal is not fulfilled, the short-term consequences for citizens<\/a> could be severe.<\/p>\n

“A wounded but intact state may respond with intensified repression, particularly if it perceives segments of society as having welcomed external pressure. Much would then depend on whether escalation is followed by a negotiated settlement that restructures relations and at least eases sanctions, or whether confrontation continues in cycles of sanctions, proxy conflict, and periodic strikes,” she said, adding that in the absence of a settlement, Iran could enter a prolonged and more severe period of militarization and economic attrition.<\/p>\n

Additional reporting by Niloofar Gholami and Kersten Knipp.<\/em><\/p>\n

Edited by: Ole Tangen Jr<\/em><\/p>\n

\n

US-Military pressure on Iran: Is a regime change the goal?<\/h2>\n

\n

After Israel<\/a> launched “preemptive strikes”<\/a> against Iran<\/a> on Saturday morning, President Donald Trump announced in a speech that “major combat operations”<\/a> by the US<\/a> were also underway.<\/p>\n

“Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian \u2060regime,” Trump said in a video shared on social \u2060media, vowing to destroy Iranian nuclear and military capabilities.<\/p>\n

“We will ensure Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon,” he said.<\/p>\n

Laying out the campaign objectives, Trump also said the US would obliterate Iran’s ballistic missile program and its naval forces.<\/p>\n

As the US-Israel military campaign against Iran doesn’t appear to be short-term and limited, analysts believe the conflict could continue for\u00a0weeks, if not months.<\/p>\n

Objective 1: Stop Iran\u00a0obtaining or building nuclear weapons<\/h2>\n

After the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025, Trump declared that the US had “obliterated” Iran’s major nuclear facilities and that the Islamic Republic would not be able to build nuclear weapons in the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

“The US is conducting a war whose aim is to destroy this (nuclear) program, again, so I think this, by and large, is a pretext,” said Marcus Schneider, expert at the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) in Lebanon.<\/p>\n

“Iran’s nuclear program was set back at the time by US attacks; some say by a few months, others say by a few years,” he told DW.\u00a0“But I believe it cannot be eliminated. It is also a question of expertise, which means that if Iran has the expertise to build these centrifuges and to enrich [uranium], then that is something you cannot eliminate through air force.”<\/p>\n

\n

Analyst assesses Iran politics as US launches attacks<\/h2>\n

Shahin Modarres, an Italy-based security analyst, says a nuclear-armed Iran will always be viewed by Israel and the US as “unacceptable.”<\/p>\n

“Preventing nuclear weaponization is, therefore, a strategic objective, not merely a policy preference,” Modarres told DW.<\/p>\n

Diba Mirzaei from the German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) dubs it “a pretext to justify the war,” arguing that “currently no practical danger is emanating from Iran.”<\/p>\n

The negotiations between the US and Iran<\/a> in Geneva this week over Tehran’s nuclear program didn’t yield any result.<\/p>\n

Objective 2: Obliteration of Iran’s ballistic missile program<\/h2>\n

Some experts believe that the US and Israel consider Tehran’s ballistic missile capabilities a bigger threat than its nuclear program. In last year’s 12-day war<\/a>, Iran demonstrated that its missiles could inflict damage on Israel and US military facilities in the region.<\/p>\n

“Operationally, production facilities, storage sites, and solid-fuel procurement chains are targetable \u2014 as recent strikes on missile-related infrastructure have demonstrated,” Modarres underlined. “However, technological know-how cannot be bombed away,” he said, adding that a complete eradication of the Islamic Republic’s missile program “is unlikely, but severe degradation and long-term limitation of capacity is possible.”<\/p>\n

Schneider agrees: “It is a domestic industry, which means that these are not imported ballistic missiles. Iran is in a position \u2014 something it has proven since the end of the last war \u2014 to produce them by itself. It is, of course, possible to destroy the arsenal, but the question is how long it will take and who gets harmed in the process.”<\/p>\n

\n

What are the risks of a US military attack on Iran?<\/h2>\n

Objective 3: Destruction of Iran’s naval forces<\/h2>\n

For Schneider, it is more feasible for the US to annihilate Iran’s navy than its missile capabilities. “Of course, that is militarily possible. But one must understand that they (Iran) also have many small boats \u2014 the so\u2011called speedboats. So, I think that is not something that can be achieved in a week,” the analysts said.<\/p>\n

Shahin Modarres pointed out that there is a historical precedent for this kind of operation.<\/p>\n

“During Operation Praying Mantis (1988), the US severely damaged Iran’s naval capabilities. If the freedom of navigation \u2014 particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical global energy chokepoint \u2014 is threatened, the US could justify large-scale naval action. The strategic objective for this would be to guarantee the opening of sea lanes,” Modarres stressed.<\/p>\n

Sara Kermanian, researcher of international relations at the University of Sussex, shares this view: “The United States could severely damage Iran’s active naval forces in the short term, significantly degrading their ability to disrupt maritime traffic.”<\/p>\n

Objective 4: Toppling the regime<\/h2>\n

It is unclear how President Trump wants to achieve this goal through his latest military campaign, as Washington has not hinted at initiating ground operations inside Iran. But reports of Israeli and US air strikes on military and government targets inside Iran show\u00a0that the campaign aims to substantially weaken the regime.<\/p>\n

“When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations,” Trump said in his speech. “For many years, you have asked for America’s help, but you never got it.”<\/p>\n

\"Images
President Trump has urged Iranian citizens to rise against the regimeImage: AFP<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Modarres says renewed mass protests against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s hardline regime, something similar to those in January<\/a>, could be probable but it would require a powerful triggering event. “Given the memory of repression, spontaneous uprising is unlikely without structural weakening of the regime. Statements suggesting opportunity may function more as strategic signaling than firm commitment,” the expert added.<\/p>\n

Schneider believes toppling the\u00a0regime would require ground troops. “That Trump intends to do it only with air power and then believes that the Iranian population will rise amid a war and act against this brutal regime, I find that rather fantastical to imagine,” he said.<\/p>\n

“If the actual goal is regime change, then I would assume this war will last longer \u2014 possibly for several months. And the big question that arises is that of the regime’s resilience,” he underlined.<\/p>\n

Modarres believes Trump’s immunity offer to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard\u00a0Corps (IRGC) members “is a classic strategy aimed at encouraging elite defection and accelerating internal fragmentation.”<\/p>\n

“Its effectiveness will increase if sustained military and economic pressure weaken regime\u00a0cohesion. However, institutional surrender of the IRGC would only be plausible under conditions of a profound systemic collapse,” he said.<\/p>\n

What if the regime collapse objective is not achieved?<\/h2>\n

Kermanian believes that if Trump’s regime collapse goal is not fulfilled, the short-term consequences for citizens<\/a> could be severe.<\/p>\n

“A wounded but intact state may respond with intensified repression, particularly if it perceives segments of society as having welcomed external pressure. Much would then depend on whether escalation is followed by a negotiated settlement that restructures relations and at least eases sanctions, or whether confrontation continues in cycles of sanctions, proxy conflict, and periodic strikes,” she said, adding that in the absence of a settlement, Iran could enter a prolonged and more severe period of militarization and economic attrition.<\/p>\n

Additional reporting by Niloofar Gholami and Kersten Knipp.<\/em><\/p>\n

Edited by: Ole Tangen Jr<\/em><\/p>\n

\n

US-Military pressure on Iran: Is a regime change the goal?<\/h2>\n

After Israel<\/a> launched “preemptive strikes”<\/a> against Iran<\/a> on Saturday morning, President Donald Trump announced in a speech that “major combat operations”<\/a> by the US<\/a> were also underway.<\/p>\n

“Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian \u2060regime,” Trump said in a video shared on social \u2060media, vowing to destroy Iranian nuclear and military capabilities.<\/p>\n

“We will ensure Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon,” he said.<\/p>\n

Laying out the campaign objectives, Trump also said the US would obliterate Iran’s ballistic missile program and its naval forces.<\/p>\n

As the US-Israel military campaign against Iran doesn’t appear to be short-term and limited, analysts believe the conflict could continue for\u00a0weeks, if not months.<\/p>\n

After the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025, Trump declared that the US had “obliterated” Iran’s major nuclear facilities and that the Islamic Republic would not be able to build nuclear weapons in the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

“The US is conducting a war whose aim is to destroy this (nuclear) program, again, so I think this, by and large, is a pretext,” said Marcus Schneider, expert at the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) in Lebanon.<\/p>\n

“Iran’s nuclear program was set back at the time by US attacks; some say by a few months, others say by a few years,” he told DW.\u00a0“But I believe it cannot be eliminated. It is also a question of expertise, which means that if Iran has the expertise to build these centrifuges and to enrich [uranium], then that is something you cannot eliminate through air force.”<\/p>\n

To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video<\/a><\/p>\n

Shahin Modarres, an Italy-based security analyst, says a nuclear-armed Iran will always be viewed by Israel and the US as “unacceptable.”<\/p>\n

“Preventing nuclear weaponization is, therefore, a strategic objective, not merely a policy preference,” Modarres told DW.<\/p>\n

Diba Mirzaei from the German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) dubs it “a pretext to justify the war,” arguing that “currently no practical danger is emanating from Iran.”<\/p>\n

The negotiations between the US and Iran<\/a> in Geneva this week over Tehran’s nuclear program didn’t yield any result.<\/p>\n

Some experts believe that the US and Israel consider Tehran’s ballistic missile capabilities a bigger threat than its nuclear program. In last year’s 12-day war<\/a>, Iran demonstrated that its missiles could inflict damage on Israel and US military facilities in the region.<\/p>\n

“Operationally, production facilities, storage sites, and solid-fuel procurement chains are targetable \u2014 as recent strikes on missile-related infrastructure have demonstrated,” Modarres underlined. “However, technological know-how cannot be bombed away,” he said, adding that a complete eradication of the Islamic Republic’s missile program “is unlikely, but severe degradation and long-term limitation of capacity is possible.”<\/p>\n

Schneider agrees: “It is a domestic industry, which means that these are not imported ballistic missiles. Iran is in a position \u2014 something it has proven since the end of the last war \u2014 to produce them by itself. It is, of course, possible to destroy the arsenal, but the question is how long it will take and who gets harmed in the process.”<\/p>\n

To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video<\/a><\/p>\n

For Schneider, it is more feasible for the US to annihilate Iran’s navy than its missile capabilities. “Of course, that is militarily possible. But one must understand that they (Iran) also have many small boats \u2014 the so\u2011called speedboats. So, I think that is not something that can be achieved in a week,” the analysts said.<\/p>\n

Shahin Modarres pointed out that there is a historical precedent for this kind of operation.<\/p>\n

“During Operation Praying Mantis (1988), the US severely damaged Iran’s naval capabilities. If the freedom of navigation \u2014 particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical global energy chokepoint \u2014 is threatened, the US could justify large-scale naval action. The strategic objective for this would be to guarantee the opening of sea lanes,” Modarres stressed.<\/p>\n

Sara Kermanian, researcher of international relations at the University of Sussex, shares this view: “The United States could severely damage Iran’s active naval forces in the short term, significantly degrading their ability to disrupt maritime traffic.”<\/p>\n

It is unclear how President Trump wants to achieve this goal through his latest military campaign, as Washington has not hinted at initiating ground operations inside Iran. But reports of Israeli and US air strikes on military and government targets inside Iran show\u00a0that the campaign aims to substantially weaken the regime.<\/p>\n

“When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations,” Trump said in his speech. “For many years, you have asked for America’s help, but you never got it.”<\/p>\n

Modarres says renewed mass protests against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s hardline regime, something similar to those in January<\/a>, could be probable but it would require a powerful triggering event. “Given the memory of repression, spontaneous uprising is unlikely without structural weakening of the regime. Statements suggesting opportunity may function more as strategic signaling than firm commitment,” the expert added.<\/p>\n

Schneider believes toppling the\u00a0regime would require ground troops. “That Trump intends to do it only with air power and then believes that the Iranian population will rise amid a war and act against this brutal regime, I find that rather fantastical to imagine,” he said.<\/p>\n

“If the actual goal is regime change, then I would assume this war will last longer \u2014 possibly for several months. And the big question that arises is that of the regime’s resilience,” he underlined.<\/p>\n

Modarres believes Trump’s immunity offer to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard\u00a0Corps (IRGC) members “is a classic strategy aimed at encouraging elite defection and accelerating internal fragmentation.”<\/p>\n

“Its effectiveness will increase if sustained military and economic pressure weaken regime\u00a0cohesion. However, institutional surrender of the IRGC would only be plausible under conditions of a profound systemic collapse,” he said.<\/p>\n

Kermanian believes that if Trump’s regime collapse goal is not fulfilled, the short-term consequences for citizens<\/a> could be severe.<\/p>\n

“A wounded but intact state may respond with intensified repression, particularly if it perceives segments of society as having welcomed external pressure. Much would then depend on whether escalation is followed by a negotiated settlement that restructures relations and at least eases sanctions, or whether confrontation continues in cycles of sanctions, proxy conflict, and periodic strikes,” she said, adding that in the absence of a settlement, Iran could enter a prolonged and more severe period of militarization and economic attrition.<\/p>\n

Additional reporting by Niloofar Gholami and Kersten Knipp.<\/em><\/p>\n

Edited by: Ole Tangen Jr<\/em><\/p>\n

To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video<\/a><\/p>\n

[analyse_source url=”https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/donald-trumps-iran-objectives-what-can-be-achieved\/a-76166558″]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[analyse_image type=”featured” src=”https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/76163699_6.jpg”] https:\/\/p.dw.com\/p\/59aOs US President Donald Trump announcing military campaign against Iran in a video posted on social mediaImage: Chris Delmas\/AFP After Israel launched “preemptive strikes” against Iran on Saturday morning, President Donald Trump announced in a speech that “major combat operations” by the US were also underway. “Our objective is to defend the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[226,74],"class_list":["post-1799001","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","tag-crawlmanager","tag-dw-com"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1799001","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1799001"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1799001\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1799001"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1799001"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1799001"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}