{"id":1586674,"date":"2023-03-12T12:14:56","date_gmt":"2023-03-12T09:14:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1586674"},"modified":"2023-03-12T12:14:56","modified_gmt":"2023-03-12T09:14:56","slug":"doua-scenarii-pentru-ucraina-cum-iohannis-si-ciuca-pot-baga-romania-intr-o-catastrofa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1586674","title":{"rendered":"Dou\u0103 Scenarii pentru Ucraina: Cum Iohannis \u0219i Ciuc\u0103 pot b\u0103ga Rom\u00e2nia \u00eentr-o catastrof\u0103"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"articleBody\" data-key=\"articleBody\">&lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221; style=&#8221;font-weight: bold;&#8221;&gt;Prim\u0103vara va aduce o escaladare a R\u0103zboiului din Ucraina, spun exper\u021bii. Inclusiv o implicare direct\u0103 a NATO. Ceea ce ar \u00eensemna o catastrof\u0103 pentru Rom\u00e2nia.&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221;&gt;Se \u00eenmul\u021besc semnalele \u00eengrijor\u0103toare c\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia va fi \u00eempins\u0103 \u00een R\u0103zboiul din Ucraina, \u00eentr-un conflict care nu este al ei. Un conflict \u00een care nu are nici un interes \u0219i de pe urma c\u0103ruia nu are nimic de c\u00e2\u0219tigat. Dar totul de pierdut.&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Am prezentat deja &lt;a href=&#8221;http:\/\/www.activenews.ro\/opinii\/Declaratie-bomba-a-lui-Viktor-Orban-Se-pregateste-trimiterea-de-trupe-Aliate-in-Ucraina-%E2%80%93-Va-fi-Romania-impinsa-in-Razboi-180490&#8243; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;avertismentul liderului ungar Viktor Orban&lt;\/a&gt; privind trupele NATO care ar putea fi trimise s\u0103 lupte \u00een Ucraina. Opera\u021biune \u00een care ar putea fi implicat\u0103 \u0219i Rom\u00e2nia.&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Iat\u0103 acum \u0219i un pronostic sumbru pentru Rom\u00e2nia care \u00eei apar\u021bine expertului american Stephen Bryen, cercet\u0103tor principal la &lt;a href=&#8221;http:\/\/centerforsecuritypolicy.org\/&#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;Center for Security Policy&lt;\/a&gt;&nbsp;&nbsp;\u0219i la &lt;a href=&#8221;http:\/\/yorktowninstitute.org\/&#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;Yorktown Institute&lt;\/a&gt;.&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;O analiz\u0103 publicat\u0103 de &lt;a href=&#8221;http:\/\/asiatimes.com\/2023\/03\/the-coming-spring-offensives-in-ukraine\/&#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;Asia Times&lt;\/a&gt; pe care am tradus-o pentru cititorii ActiveNews.&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p style=&#8221;text-align: center;&#8221;&gt;&lt;span class=&#8221;subtitlu&#8221;&gt;*&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221;&gt;Dup\u0103 cum stau lucrurile acum, \u00een Ucraina, \u00een aceast\u0103 prim\u0103var\u0103 sunt posibile dou\u0103 ofensive.&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221;&gt;Fiecare dintre ele prezint\u0103 riscuri importante pentru ambele tabere.&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221; style=&#8221;font-weight: bold;&#8221;&gt;Este dificil s\u0103 le prevezi rezultatul, deoarece pot inverveni actori din exterior, \u00een special for\u021bele americane \u0219i NATO.&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221;&gt;Prima este cunoscut\u0103. Este vorba de &lt;a href=&#8221;http:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/164360c3-1b37-46c9-b26a-4444d2045eef&#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;ofensiva de prim\u0103var\u0103 organizat\u0103 de armata rus\u0103&lt;\/a&gt;.&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;De multe luni se fac preg\u0103tiri considerabile. Ru\u0219ii \u0219i-au perfec\u021bionat tacticile, au adus noi arme ofensive \u0219i au \u00eenlocuit echipamentul pierdut p\u00e2n\u0103 acum \u00een r\u0103zboi, \u00een special tancurile \u0219i vehiculele de lupt\u0103 de infanterie.&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221;&gt;Un &lt;a href=&#8221;http:\/\/simplicius76.substack.com\/p\/sitrep-3623-bakhmut-noose-tightens&#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;raport afirm\u0103&lt;\/a&gt;&lt;\/span&gt;&nbsp;c\u0103 produc\u021bia de tancuri a ru\u0219ilor, inclusiv modelele &lt;a href=&#8221;http:\/\/www.military-today.com\/tanks\/t90m.htm&#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;T-90&lt;\/a&gt;&nbsp;\u0219i &lt;a href=&#8221;http:\/\/www.sandboxx.us\/blog\/russias-new-t-14-armata-tank-is-seen-in-ukraine-for-the-first-time\/&#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;T-14 Armata&lt;\/a&gt;, func\u021bioneaz\u0103 la mare capacitate.&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221;&gt;\u0218i produc\u021bia de alte arme, \u00een special muni\u021bie de toate tipurile, pare s\u0103 se fi accelerat.&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221;&gt;Ceea ce nu se \u0219tie este cum vor folosi ru\u0219ii for\u021ba militar\u0103 important\u0103 pe care au str\u00e2ns-o, \u00eentre 200.000 \u0219i 300.000 de oameni.&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221;&gt;Una dintre teorii sus\u021bine c\u0103 se vor deplasa dinspre sud \u0219i dinspre est, \u00eentr-o larg\u0103 \u00eencercuire, \u00eencerc\u00e2nd s\u0103 prind\u0103 \u00een capcan\u0103 for\u021bele ucrainene.&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221;&gt;O alt\u0103 teorie este c\u0103 vor folosi \u00eencercuirea pentru a-i izola pe ucraineni, \u00eendrept\u00e2ndu-se spre Kiev din trei p\u0103r\u021bi (sud, est \u0219i nord).&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221;&gt;Aceasta ar putea fi strategia cea mai bun\u0103, dar este greu de spus dac\u0103 au suficiente efective pentru a realiza aceast\u0103 opera\u021biune sau suficient\u0103 mobilitate pentru a evita contraatacurile ucrainene.&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221;&gt;O alt\u0103 ofensiv\u0103 de prim\u0103var\u0103 este cea pentru care &lt;a href=&#8221;http:\/\/www.voanews.com\/a\/us-ukraine-preparing-a-spring-offensive-against-russia\/6963179.html&#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;Ucraina se preg\u0103te\u0219te foarte serios&lt;\/a&gt;. &lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span style=&#8221;font-weight: bold;&#8221;&gt;Ea a fost planificat\u0103 mai degrab\u0103 la Pentagon dec\u00e2t la Kiev.&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221;&gt;NATO \u00ee\u0219i consolideaz\u0103 for\u021bele cu rapiditate. S\u00e2mb\u0103ta trecut\u0103, nava transportoare de vehicule sub pavilion american &lt;a href=&#8221;http:\/\/www.myshiptracking.com\/vessels\/liberty-pride-mmsi-368473000-imo-9448114&#8243; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;Liberty Pride&lt;\/a&gt;&lt;\/span&gt;&nbsp;&lt;a href=&#8221;http:\/\/greekreporter.com\/2023\/03\/05\/us-vessel-transporting-military-equipment-docks-at-alexandroupolis\/&#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;a ancorat \u00een portul Alexandroupolis&lt;\/a&gt; din Grecia, \u00eenc\u0103rcat\u0103 cu echipament militar destinat for\u021belor NATO.&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221;&gt;C\u00e2te alte nave ale SUA sunt pe mare \u00een acest moment sau care au ajuns \u00een porturi nu se \u0219tie.&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221; style=&#8221;font-weight: bold;&#8221;&gt;Se \u0219tie \u00eens\u0103 c\u0103 NATO se preg\u0103te\u0219te pentru o extindere a conflictului de \u00eendat\u0103 ce ucrainenii declan\u0219eaz\u0103 ofensiva.&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221;&gt;Principalul obiectiv al ofensivei de prim\u0103var\u0103 ucrainene este probabil un asalt asupra Crimeei \u0219i asupra for\u021belor ruse din sud.&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221;&gt;Obiectivul este de a-i izola (zona de la Herson p\u00e2n\u0103 la Zaporojie) \u0219i de a-i distruge sistematic, dup\u0103 care s\u0103 urmeze un mare atac asupra Crimeei.&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221;&gt;Statele Unite furnizeaz\u0103 o cantitate enorm\u0103 de materiale de r\u0103zboi pentru acest asalt. El cuprinde &lt;a href=&#8221;http:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/craighooper\/2023\/03\/03\/armored-bridges-to-ukraine-last-pieces-for-a-counter-attack-coming-into-place\/?sh=7c8011d22efe&#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;poduri mobile capabile s\u0103 suporte tancurile germane Leopard II&lt;\/a&gt;,&nbsp;&lt;\/span&gt;care c\u00e2nt\u0103resc 62 de tone (aproximativ la fel ca tancurile fantom\u0103 &lt;a href=&#8221;http:\/\/www.military.com\/equipment\/m1a2-abrams-main-battle-tank&#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;M1 Abrams&lt;\/a&gt;, care nu vor ajunge \u00een Ucraina \u00eenainte de anul viitor, dac\u0103 vor ajunge).&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221;&gt;Ucraina va fi suprasolicitat\u0103 \u00een aceast\u0103 opera\u021biune \u0219i va depinde de serviciile de informa\u021bii americane \u0219i, &lt;span style=&#8221;font-weight: bold;&#8221;&gt;foarte probabil, de for\u021ba aerian\u0103 american\u0103&lt;\/span&gt;.&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221;&gt;Nu este suficient timp pentru preg\u0103tirea pilo\u021bilor ucraineni pe avioanele F-16 \u0219i nici nu exist\u0103 avioane F-16 preg\u0103tite s\u0103 fie aruncate \u00een lupt\u0103. &lt;span style=&#8221;font-weight: bold;&#8221;&gt;Doar dac\u0103, evident, nu se implic\u0103 escadroanele de lupt\u0103 ale SUA.&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221; style=&#8221;font-weight: bold;&#8221;&gt;Este posibil ca avioanele SUA s\u0103 fie vopsite cu \u00eensemnele Ucrainei \u0219i s\u0103 fie pilotate de pilo\u021bi SUA sau NATO.&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221;&gt;Aceste avioane ar func\u021biona ca resurse de la distan\u021b\u0103, lans\u00e2nd arme aer-aer \u0219i aer-sol cu raz\u0103 lung\u0103 de ac\u021biune.&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221;&gt;Men\u021bin\u00e2ndu-se departe de sistemele de ap\u0103rare aeriene ruse, dar protejate de ce a mai r\u0103mas din for\u021bele de ap\u0103rare aeriene ucrainene, avioanele F-16 ar putea \u021binti blindatele ruse\u0219ti, centrele de comand\u0103, forma\u021biunile de trupe, convoaiele, radarele \u0219i sistemele de bruiaj ale ap\u0103r\u0103rii aeriene.&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221; style=&#8221;font-weight: bold;&#8221;&gt;O astfel de ofensiv\u0103 ucrainean\u0103 ar putea fi privit\u0103 de ru\u0219i ca un casus belli, implic\u00e2nd o participare direct\u0103 a NATO.&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221;&gt;Este greu de spus cum ar putea r\u0103spunde Rusia la o astfel de provocare direct\u0103.&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221; style=&#8221;font-weight: bold; color: rgb(239, 0, 27);&#8221;&gt;Cea mai probabil\u0103 reac\u021bie a Rusiei ar putea fi de a ataca depozitele de arme \u0219i zonele \u00een care sunt masate trupe din Polonia \u0219i Rom\u00e2nia \u2013 \u0219i, aproape cu siguran\u021b\u0103, aeroporturile care sprijin\u0103 r\u0103zboiul.&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221;&gt;Strategii ru\u0219i sunt de p\u0103rere c\u0103 for\u021bele poloneze ar putea p\u0103trunde \u0219i ele \u00een Ucraina, ocup\u00e2nd poate Lvov sau alte obiective, sub pretextul de a le ap\u0103ra, \u00een ideea c\u0103 ofensiva ucrainean\u0103 ar e\u0219ua sau c\u0103 ru\u0219ii ar reu\u0219i s\u0103 r\u0103stoarne regimul de la Kiev.&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Dac\u0103 aceste pronosticuri privind cele dou\u0103 ofensive de prim\u0103var\u0103 sunt suficient de corecte \u2013 \u0219i exist\u0103 numeroase dovezi c\u0103 cele dou\u0103 ofensive se afl\u0103 \u00een preg\u0103tire \u2013 atunci Europa se afl\u0103 \u00een pragul unei catastrofe.&lt;\/p&gt;<\/div>\n<p> Source URL: https:\/\/www.activenews.ro\/opinii\/Doua-Scenarii-pentru-Ucraina-Cum-Iohannis-si-Ciuca-pot-baga-Romania-intr-o-catastrofa-180509<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221; style=&#8221;font-weight: bold;&#8221;&gt;Prim\u0103vara va aduce o escaladare a R\u0103zboiului din Ucraina, spun exper\u021bii. Inclusiv o implicare direct\u0103 a NATO. Ceea ce ar \u00eensemna o catastrof\u0103 pentru Rom\u00e2nia.&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang=&#8221;RO&#8221;&gt;Se \u00eenmul\u021besc semnalele \u00eengrijor\u0103toare c\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia va fi \u00eempins\u0103 \u00een R\u0103zboiul din Ucraina, \u00eentr-un conflict care nu este al ei. Un conflict \u00een care nu are [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1586682,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[89],"tags":[98],"class_list":["post-1586674","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-romania","tag-activenews-ro"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1586674","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1586674"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1586674\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1586682"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1586674"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1586674"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1586674"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}