{"id":1122921,"date":"2025-12-17T13:55:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-17T10:55:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1122921"},"modified":"2025-12-17T13:55:00","modified_gmt":"2025-12-17T10:55:00","slug":"pozitia-economica-externa-a-romaniei-este-din-ce-in-ce-mai-slaba-presiunea-pe-leu-la-cote-maxime-gold-fm-romania","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/?p=1122921","title":{"rendered":"Pozi\u021bia economic\u0103 extern\u0103 a Rom\u00e2niei este din ce \u00een ce mai slab\u0103. Presiunea pe leu, la cote maxime | Gold Fm Romania"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"qt-the-content\">\n<p id=\"p-0\">Deficitul de cont curent al Rom\u00e2niei, care \u00eenseamn\u0103 diferen\u021ba dintre valuta care intr\u0103 \u00een \u021bar\u0103 \u0219i valuta care iese, a ajuns anul trecut la peste 8% din PIB. Este un semnal de alarm\u0103, pentru c\u0103 \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 presiunea pe moneda na\u021bional\u0103 este din ce \u00een ce mai mare, iar, f\u0103r\u0103 interven\u021bia B\u0103ncii Na\u021bionale a Rom\u00e2niei, leul se devalorizeaz\u0103.<\/p>\n<p id=\"p-1\">Banca Na\u021bional\u0103 a Rom\u00e2niei (BNR) a publicat\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bnr.ro\/12053-balanta-de-plati-si-pozitia-investitionala-internationala\">raportul anual<\/a>\u00a0privind balan\u021ba de pl\u0103\u021bi \u0219i pozi\u021bia investi\u021bional\u0103 interna\u021bional\u0103 a \u021b\u0103rii \u0219i arat\u0103 declinul \u021b\u0103rii pe plan extern. Conform raportului,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.gandul.ro\/economie\/datoria-externa-a-romaniei-a-crescut-cu-22-miliarde-de-euro-in-2025-anul-viitor-deficitul-bugetar-ramane-la-o-valoare-record-20742443\">deficitul de cont curent a ajuns la 28,9 miliarde de euro<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 echivalentul a 8,2% din PIB, fa\u021b\u0103 de 6,7% \u00een anul precedent.<\/p>\n<p>Drept urmare, acest nivel se situeaz\u0103 printre cele mai \u00eenalte din Uniunea European\u0103 \u0219i indic\u0103 o grav\u0103 problem\u0103 structural\u0103: economia Rom\u00e2niei import\u0103 mai mult dec\u00e2t export\u0103 c\u0103tre pie\u021bele externe.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/https3a2f2fwww-gandul-ro2f2fwp-content2fuploads2f20252f122fwhatsapp-image-2025-12-16-at-20-07-02.webp\" width=\"700\" height=\"319\" title=\"https3a2f2fwww-gandul-ro2f2fwp-content2fuploads2f20252f122fwhatsapp-image-2025-12-16-at-20-07-02\"><\/p>\n<p id=\"p-3\">Sursa: BNR<\/p>\n<p id=\"p-4\">Dar este vorba de exportul \u0219i importul de bunuri, mai degrab\u0103 dec\u00e2t de servicii. Este deja o poveste veche faptul c\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia export\u0103 porumb \u0219i import\u0103 m\u0103lai, sau export\u0103 gr\u00e2u \u0219i import\u0103 aluat congelat. Astfel s-a ajuns la un deficit comercial la bunuri de c\u00e2teva zeci de miliarde de lei.<\/p>\n<p id=\"p-5\">Pe de alt\u0103 parte, Rom\u00e2nia export\u0103 \u00een materie de servicii mai mult de\u00e2ct import\u0103. Spre exemplu, serviciile IT \u00eenregistreaz\u0103 excedent, la fel \u0219i serviciile de transport. \u00cen ceea ce prive\u0219te turismul, rom\u00e2nii \u00een continuare cheltuiesc mult mai mul\u021bi bani \u00een str\u0103in\u0103tate dec\u00e2t banii pe care \u00eei las\u0103 turi\u0219tii str\u0103ini \u00een Rom\u00e2nia.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"chapter-0\"><strong>Deficitul extern, un semnal de alarm\u0103 pentru pozi\u021bia economic\u0103 extern\u0103 Rom\u00e2niei<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p id=\"p-6\">Teoretic, contul curent eviden\u021biaz\u0103 rela\u021biile economice ale Rom\u00e2niei cu restul lumii, incluz\u00e2nd tranzac\u021biile comerciale, prestarea de servicii, fluxurile de venituri \u0219i transferurile interna\u021bionale.<\/p>\n<p id=\"p-7\">Raportul BNR eviden\u021biaz\u0103 c\u0103 principalii parteneri economici ai Rom\u00e2niei sunt Germania, Italia, Fran\u021ba, Ungaria \u0219i Bulgaria. Av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere c\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia import\u0103 un procent mare de bunuri de la partenerii s\u0103i economici, se poate afirma c\u0103 economia rom\u00e2neasc\u0103 actual\u0103 se bazeaz\u0103 pe finan\u021bare extern\u0103 pentru a func\u021biona. Acest aspect poate genera o presiune asupra \u201eleului\u201d \u00een sensul devaloriz\u0103rii monedei na\u021bionale \u00een raport cu alte valute.\u00a0Cererea crescut\u0103 pentru valut\u0103 str\u0103in\u0103, comparativ cu cererea sc\u0103zut\u0103 pentru moned\u0103 na\u021bional\u0103 poate cauza, mai departe, deprecierea cursului de schimb al monedei na\u021bionale.<\/p>\n<p id=\"p-8\">\u201eTotu\u0219i, acest impact negativ a fost limitat de influen\u021ba favorabil\u0103 adus\u0103 de majorarea exportului net de servicii de telecomunica\u021bii, informatice \u0219i informa\u021bionale \u0219i de u\u0219oara reducere a deficitului balan\u021bei turismului\u201d,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bnr.ro\/uploads\/2024-12-bop-raportanual_documentpdf_545_1765884631.pdf\">a raportat BNR<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"chapter-1\"><strong>Cum am ajuns aici?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p id=\"p-9\">Raportul BNR a indicat urm\u0103toarele cauze principale ale deficitului extern:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cre\u0219terea importurilor \u0219i stagnarea exporturilor;<\/li>\n<li>Deficitul balan\u021bei bunurilor a ajuns la aproape 33 de miliarde de euro, reflect\u00e2nd o competitivitate slab\u0103 a produc\u021biei interne \u0219i cererea intern\u0103 ridicat\u0103;<\/li>\n<li>Serviciile au adus un surplus mai mic dec\u00e2t \u00een anul anterior, \u00een special pe fondul sc\u0103derii veniturilor din transporturi \u0219i servicii pentru afaceri;<\/li>\n<li>Intr\u0103rile de fonduri europene cu caracter curent au sc\u0103zut, diminu\u00e2nd o surs\u0103 important\u0103 de echilibrare a contului curent.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p id=\"p-10\">De asemenea, datele BNR ne arat\u0103 c\u0103 principalul contribuitor la aceast\u0103 deteriorare este sectorul public. \u00cen ceea ce prive\u0219te sectorul privat, se poate remarca un relativ echilibru din punct de vedere extern.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"chapter-2\"><strong>Va reu\u0219i Rom\u00e2nia s\u0103 remedieze acest deficit \u00een timp util?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p id=\"p-11\">Reducerea deficitului de cont curent depinde de cre\u0219terea produc\u021biei locale pentru a acoperi cererea intern\u0103 \u0219i de dezvoltarea exporturilor unde exist\u0103 avantaje competitive, astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t s\u0103 sus\u021binem importurile.<\/p>\n<p id=\"p-12\">\u201eDin punctul meu de vedere, am f\u0103cut c\u00e2\u021biva pa\u0219i mici \u00een direc\u021bia bun\u0103, de a echilibra bugetul, de a reduce deficitul bugetar. Dar nu am f\u0103cut \u00eenc\u0103 reforme\u201d, a afirmat pre\u0219edintele UDMR, Kelemen Hunor, la\u00a0<em>Digi24<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p id=\"p-13\">Potrivit unor exper\u021bi, pe termen scurt situa\u021bia poate fi controlat\u0103. Totu\u0219i, pe termen mediu, costurile de finan\u021bare cresc, capacitatea de reac\u021bie la \u0219ocuri scade, iar cheltuielile trebuie inevitabil ajustate.<\/p>\n<p id=\"p-14\">De men\u021bionat este c\u0103 pericolul principal al deficitului extern \u00eel reprezint\u0103\u00a0<strong>vulnerabilitatea<\/strong>\u00a0na\u021bional\u0103. \u00cen acest sens, statele cu deficite persistente \u0219i datorii externe mari sunt mai vulnerabile la schimb\u0103rile neprev\u0103zute ale pie\u021bei.<\/p>\n<p id=\"p-15\">\u00cen plus, dac\u0103 investitorii str\u0103ini \u00ee\u0219i pierd \u00eencrederea \u0219i decid s\u0103 retrag\u0103 capitalul, acest fenomen poate genera o \u201eoprire brusc\u0103\u201d a fluxurilor de capital, av\u00e2nd poten\u021bialul de a provoca o criz\u0103 valutar\u0103 sau o recesiune economic\u0103 profund\u0103.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"chapter-3\"><strong>Opinia final\u0103 a BNR<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p id=\"p-16\">\u00cencheierea raportului B\u0103ncii Na\u021bionale pare \u00eencurajatoare, \u00een ciuda caren\u021belor na\u021bionale:<\/p>\n<p id=\"p-17\">\u201eDe\u0219i raporturile fa\u021b\u0103 de PIB \u0219i exporturi semnaleaz\u0103 o dependen\u021b\u0103 mai accentuat\u0103 de finan\u021barea extern\u0103, profilul extern r\u0103m\u00e2ne, conform evalu\u0103rilor Comisiei Europene, \u00eentr-o zon\u0103 de risc moderat, cu vulnerabilit\u0103\u021bi monitorizate care nu dep\u0103\u0219esc nivelurile de alert\u0103 \u0219i cu un nivel adecvat al rezervelor care sprijin\u0103 soliditatea pozi\u021biei externe.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>surs\u0103: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gandul.ro\/financiar\/pozitia-economica-externa-a-romaniei-este-din-ce-in-ce-mai-slaba-presiunea-pe-leu-la-cote-maxime-20744299\">gandul.ro<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"tagcloud qt-spacer-m\"><span class=\"qt-title\">Tagged as <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/radiogoldfm.ro\/tag\/banca\/\" rel=\"tag\">banca<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/radiogoldfm.ro\/tag\/bnr\/\" rel=\"tag\">bnr<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/radiogoldfm.ro\/tag\/declin\/\" rel=\"tag\">declin<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/radiogoldfm.ro\/tag\/economie\/\" rel=\"tag\">economie<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/radiogoldfm.ro\/tag\/gold-fm\/\" rel=\"tag\">GOLD FM<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/radiogoldfm.ro\/tag\/mugur-isarescu\/\" rel=\"tag\">mugur isarescu<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/radiogoldfm.ro\/tag\/romania\/\" rel=\"tag\">romania<\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"qt-post-author qt-card\">\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"qt-post-author-data col s10 m7 l7\">\n<h6>Profil<\/h6>\n<h4><a href=\"https:\/\/radiogoldfm.ro\/pozitia-economica-externa-a-romaniei-este-din-ce-in-ce-mai-slaba-presiunea-pe-leu-la-cote-maxime\/#author_page\">Gold FM Radio<\/a><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"qt-post-author-link col s12 m3 l4 \"><a href=\"https:\/\/radiogoldfm.ro\/author\/gold-fm\/\" class=\"qt-btn qt-btn-large qt-btn-primary aligncenter\">Arhiva postari<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p> Source URL: https:\/\/radiogoldfm.ro\/pozitia-economica-externa-a-romaniei-este-din-ce-in-ce-mai-slaba-presiunea-pe-leu-la-cote-maxime\/<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Deficitul de cont curent al Rom\u00e2niei, care \u00eenseamn\u0103 diferen\u021ba dintre valuta care intr\u0103 \u00een \u021bar\u0103 \u0219i valuta care iese, a ajuns anul trecut la peste 8% din PIB. Este un semnal de alarm\u0103, pentru c\u0103 \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 presiunea pe moneda na\u021bional\u0103 este din ce \u00een ce mai mare, iar, f\u0103r\u0103 interven\u021bia B\u0103ncii Na\u021bionale a Rom\u00e2niei, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1122922,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[89],"tags":[96],"class_list":["post-1122921","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-romania","tag-radiogoldfm-ro"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1122921","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1122921"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1122921\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1122922"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1122921"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1122921"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/analyse.optim.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1122921"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}